I went on a full-out 3 day sports talk/read moratorium as Quick signaled first down in the air, and my kids looked at me like "what happened"? So, after what was a glorious CFB game on a national stage, I'm just now coming back and catching up and ready to look forward.
A few observations: The nation wants to see us in the playoff. The pollsters want to see us in the playoffs. The networks want to see us in the playoff. If we win out with any W on the road at Houston and post big numbers over all others, we are most likely in the playoff. Our body of work would legitimately hold up vs. any other team with a loss and even vs. some weak undefeated records, and the fact is... the CFB world wants to pick us. Obviously, we root for Houston to stay undefeated until our clash. My new reality take is:
SEC
The champ is going, so the most important event that needs to happen regarding our hopes is probably that Bama just rolls. If a no-loss, or one loss Tenn/Tex A&M knocked them off in champ game, things could get dicey bc the new champ would go and Bama would be the only other team with a resume argument and CFB sex appeal above us. The winner of the champ game is going, so it's easy if it's Bama as champ. If Bama loses they go into the pile of also eligibles as a highly regarded candidate. - Most likely: Bama rolls. If not, bad for us.
Big 10
The champ is going. OSU or Mich. Who cares? The winner goes and loser goes into the heap of also eligibles without as much appeal. Most likely: OSU rolls. If not, we should still hold up in one loss debate.
ACC
The champ is going if it's Clemson or undefeated Miami. If it's Miami or UNC knocking Clemson off with a loss on their record, it's probably still ok for us. Most likely: Clemson rolls. If not, our chances still high as being the best body of work candidate from a group of one loss ACC teams.
After those 3 likely spots- spot #4 is the debate. If Washington loses ever, the PAC 12 doesn't have a team that would jump 11-1 Cards. Even if Washington goes undefeated, it's not a given they take the spot. Their 4 non-conf games are ranked 127 toughest schedule and their conference strength resembles a Big East or AAC strength with USC and Oregon tanking.
We don't want Baylor or WVU to run the table in the Big 12, but even then with no champ game and weak non-conf, those 2 aren't guaranteed the spot if undefeated. All other Big 12 scenarios would not even warrant consideration over 11-1 Cards.
The summary is that we are in the playoffs, if you go thru most scenarios. Sure, you can find some where we get left out with an impressive 11-1 record, but not many. Actually, it's hard to work a scenario where we are left out... if Bama rolls, we beat Houston and win convincingly vs. the rest of the schedule. What say you?
Whew.... I declare my moratorium officially over!! GO CARDS!!
A few observations: The nation wants to see us in the playoff. The pollsters want to see us in the playoffs. The networks want to see us in the playoff. If we win out with any W on the road at Houston and post big numbers over all others, we are most likely in the playoff. Our body of work would legitimately hold up vs. any other team with a loss and even vs. some weak undefeated records, and the fact is... the CFB world wants to pick us. Obviously, we root for Houston to stay undefeated until our clash. My new reality take is:
SEC
The champ is going, so the most important event that needs to happen regarding our hopes is probably that Bama just rolls. If a no-loss, or one loss Tenn/Tex A&M knocked them off in champ game, things could get dicey bc the new champ would go and Bama would be the only other team with a resume argument and CFB sex appeal above us. The winner of the champ game is going, so it's easy if it's Bama as champ. If Bama loses they go into the pile of also eligibles as a highly regarded candidate. - Most likely: Bama rolls. If not, bad for us.
Big 10
The champ is going. OSU or Mich. Who cares? The winner goes and loser goes into the heap of also eligibles without as much appeal. Most likely: OSU rolls. If not, we should still hold up in one loss debate.
ACC
The champ is going if it's Clemson or undefeated Miami. If it's Miami or UNC knocking Clemson off with a loss on their record, it's probably still ok for us. Most likely: Clemson rolls. If not, our chances still high as being the best body of work candidate from a group of one loss ACC teams.
After those 3 likely spots- spot #4 is the debate. If Washington loses ever, the PAC 12 doesn't have a team that would jump 11-1 Cards. Even if Washington goes undefeated, it's not a given they take the spot. Their 4 non-conf games are ranked 127 toughest schedule and their conference strength resembles a Big East or AAC strength with USC and Oregon tanking.
We don't want Baylor or WVU to run the table in the Big 12, but even then with no champ game and weak non-conf, those 2 aren't guaranteed the spot if undefeated. All other Big 12 scenarios would not even warrant consideration over 11-1 Cards.
The summary is that we are in the playoffs, if you go thru most scenarios. Sure, you can find some where we get left out with an impressive 11-1 record, but not many. Actually, it's hard to work a scenario where we are left out... if Bama rolls, we beat Houston and win convincingly vs. the rest of the schedule. What say you?
Whew.... I declare my moratorium officially over!! GO CARDS!!