The MYTH that UK is "closer" to U of L after last year's game

Pervis_Griffith

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I keep reading that last year's game at PJCS proves that UK has closed the gap considerably, and they should take the next step against us this year and beat us.

Let's look at the stats in that game, shall we??

1st Downs -- UK 14, U of L 22
3rd Down efficiency
-- UK 3-16 U of L 7-14
4th Down efficiency
-- UK 2-3 U of L 0-1
Plays net yards - UK 70-327 U of L 74 - 472
Rushes net yards
- UK 41 - 151 U of L 39 - 83
Passing yards - UK 176 U of L 398
Passes
- UK 14-29-2 U of L 22-35-2
Fumbles Lost
-- UK 1-0 U of L 2-2
Penalties -- UK 4-45 U of L 3 - 15
Time of Possession -- UK 28:54 U of L 31:06


WE dominated that game.
WE almost handed it to UK, but $h!t happens when your 3rd string QB is pressed into action after injury.
DeVante Parker had 180 yards receiving of the 398 total we rolled up in that game. He was a major factor, but hardly the only factor.


The gap between the programs is NOT that close.
UK's D is water, and that should concern ANY UK football fan since Mark Stoops is (supposedly) a defensive guy. He's yet to show that in Lexington. It shouldn't take 3 season to put your stamp on the program.

It's tough battling the delusion that always emanates from the east this time of year. And I am under no illusion that these facts will do anything to tamp that delusion down.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20141129_UK@LVILLE
 
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If I were a UK fan, I'd feel pretty good about my chances this coming season with a 4 point loss on the road and the opponent sending 10 guys to the NFL. Think about it.

It's a rivalry game, crazy things can happen and they did happen and the story you clearly tell with those stats shows this. If there's any year that UK can win this game, this year is it. With Petrino's recruiting now exceeding what CCS was accomplishing, the advantages that the ACC gives Louisville, and an upgrade in coaching staff, they may not win again for many years if they don't do it this year.
 
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Also, I believe that Louisville ties the all-time series with a victory this year. And, UK will likely be gunning for bowl eligibility with a victory. The pressure will be on them.
 

zipp

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If I were a UK fan, I'd feel pretty good about my chances this coming season with a 4 point loss on the road and the opponent sending 10 guys to the NFL. Think about it...
I just did--again. I don't think you understood the OP's point. He just gave you stats showing that a 4-point loss ain't what it appears to be. That game was the usual U of L drubbing.

The OP had a typo in his total yards stat for U of L: 472 and not 427. The difference in net yards between the two teams was GREATER this past year (145) than it was the year before (116) with Bridgewater at the controls. And LPT obviously thinks it had a better QB in the last game.

The reason it was a 4-point contest were the expected miscues of throwing your third-string QB in the game cold and with no advance notice.

And as far as guys drafted, we had three first-round picks the year before including Bridgewater, quite possibly the best QB ever to play at U of L. A lot of people predicted doom and gloom as a result. U of L just reloads.

Some of you need to do your homework before entering a debate.

LPT Football: We hate facts...
 

zipp

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No problem...stats are my friend.

And don't get yourself fired!!

:)
 

Pervis_Griffith

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[QUOTE="zipp, post: 60021, member: 182"
LPT Football: We hate facts...[/QUOTE]



LPT Football: We hate facts ...

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I just saw that. Hilarious!
 

Rhavicc

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Or you can look at it and say "Wow, Louisville needed to do all of that to get a minor miracle and win against UK at home."
Don't like it? Don't let UK's defense score 3 touchdowns. Football is played on 2 sides. The rules were not made to favor one team or the other.

Linebeard Football: We would rather play games on paper, not on the field.
 
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zipp

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As further evidence of how far apart these two programs are...

Lindy's and Athlon have just published dismal prognostications of where LPT finishes the year (SEC 2nd to last) with little or no hope for improvement (recruiting similarly ranked).

On the flipside, CBS Sports rates U of L the NUMBER ONE conference "title sleeper" nationally.

While conference strength differs, my guess is that potentially the best team in the ACC is viewed by independent football journalists as quite a bit better than the 2nd-to-last team in the SEC.

LPT Football: "They s'posed to be SEC..."
 
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Kentucky was Plus 2 in Turnover Margin and had 2 Defensive TD and Blocked a Punt and still loss...that is almost impossible to do yet UofL still won...enough said.
 
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Mayoman

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The stats for this game also go against the usual in this rivalry game in that the team that has the most rushing yards usually wins the game. uk had 41 rushes for 151 yards and U of L had 39 for 83 yards.

Since the Cards dug themselves such a deep hole falling behind like they did in the first half....and the passing game burned the cats for 472 yards vs 327, it didn't matter. That 4 pt difference could easily have been 11 had Petrino went all out to score at the end of the game.....but cat fans fail to mention that little aspect. Who'd have thunk that?

This years game will be entertaining for sure.....but the cats are getting way over confident on how well they think they did last year.....etc, etc! Cards will win by 10 or more.....time will tell and CBP has a long memory.
 

Wordless65

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Why do we constantly look down and compare ourselves to them. It was a game they lost and we won. Another way of looking at it is could UK have gone into South Bend and Boston and won? I don't think so. By their weak premise we should be about equal in talent with Clemson since we almost came within a down of beating them on the road, (wonder how that would have worked out for them).

You cant really blame them for their hope no matter how pathetic it seems because if they didn't have that they would have nothing.
 
The 'Cats season will be determined well before the Louisville game. If their season is out of hand, and they have more than 6 losses and a bowl game out of the question, LPT could be doing the friends and family thing for the last game of Stoops career.

Desperate times in Lexington. There could easily be more Red than Blue in the refurbished, aluminum mausoleum in November.
CJ
 

zipp

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Or you can look at it and say "Wow, Louisville needed to do all of that to get a minor miracle and win against UK at home." Don't like it? Don't let UK's defense score 3 touchdowns. Football is played on 2 sides. The rules were not made to favor one team or the other.

Linebeard Football: We would rather play games on paper, not on the field.
Not really. Petrino taught us the last time he was here... It's a lot more fun whipping that LPT a$$ than it is just knowing how much better you are.

In addition to flaming U of L fans on their message board, I think 'vic is saying that if U of L shoots itself in the foot a few times in the game, it could be close.

LPT Football: Taking wins any way we can get them...
 
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Why Not UofK?

Because they don't know what it takes to build a winning football tradition. They think coaches with nutrition gimmick programs are the answer instead of proven successful coaches from the past. I've spoken with a few of their faithful fans (I was unbiased) about Stoops and his so called progress. They all came to me, and told me, that this season is definitely a show me some results and make a bowl game season for him. If no Bowl game is achieved with the talent that he has theoretically pieced together over the past few seasons, then the seat under his rump will be getting warm and toasty. These are now his Kids. It's time for him to produce better than less than mediocre results for their sorry program. If they beat mediocre Florida though, they will give him a contract extension regardless, for snapping the longest current losing streak in sports.

With all that being said, They don't have a legitimate chance of beating us this season. Our defense just got beefier and more talented. Our offense, Well we didn't have Teddy last season. We still managed to win 9 games with the scraps Petrino was given at QB with the inexperience. I think We will do it again, but only better this season. QB's will have game experience from the previous season.

I think that We run the score up on Kentucky at their own place for the bad antics they pulled last season before the game. We have a winning football tradition. We know what it takes to finish strong. They do not. We will be ready to decimate the lights out of their scoreboard. One of the Weakest games on our schedule this season in my honest opinion. You can say it will be close because It's a rivalry game, and they will have x amount of time to prepare for us, and it's at Commonwealth Stadium, blah blah, but it won't matter.

We are light years ahead of them.

Our Coach is more prestigious and a proven winner. Players are more talented and know how to win. Facilities are more state of the art. Our Athletic Director gives a crap about the program's success. Our fans are more into the sport and supportive. The list goes on. It will always be lopsided in favor of Louisville.
 
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Cue Card

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IF this game were the first game of the year for both teams, I might be a little concerned. Since it's now the last game of the year, I'm not concerned about it at all.

They're always bigger, stronger, and faster in September. By the time November rolls around, they're not as big, or as strong, or as fast as they thought they were when the record was 0-0.
 

cards62878

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I made this statement when Petrino came back..................UL won't lose to UK in football as long as he is UL's coach. If Strong was still our ooach I could have seen multiple losses to be honest. Petrino hates UK as much as the UL fans do. He prepares and wants that win just as much as UL fans do in that game. I seriously don't think we lose that game as long as Petrino as the coach. My opinion.
 

GoldCard

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Nobody mentioned the biggest reason why the game was so close on the scoreboard.

Personal fouls. As in UKy getting away with them, including that horseshit before the game.
 
Jan 21, 2003
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I keep reading that UK was only close because you were using the 3rd string QB. UK was dominating Bonnafon, The best thing that happened For Louisville was him getting knocked out of the game early. UK was in control of the game until he went out.
 

Steelers2012

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I keep reading that UK was only close because you were using the 3rd string QB. UK was dominating Bonnafon, The best thing that happened For Louisville was him getting knocked out of the game early. UK was in control of the game until he went out.
I believe you are mistaken. I don't think anyone has said the game was close because we were using our 3rd string QB. What we HAVE remarked on is how our 3rd string QB dominated the UK defense. What we ARE saying its that we feel the game was close because of all of our turnovers that lead directly to UK points.
 

Global Havok

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I believe you are mistaken. I don't think anyone has said the game was close because we were using our 3rd string QB. What we HAVE remarked on is how our 3rd string QB dominated the UK defense. What we ARE saying its that we feel the game was close because of all of our turnovers that lead directly to UK points.
Not trying to take away from what KB did, but he was throwing to the best player on the field, and one of the best players in the country.

As much as I'd like to say take away Parker's production and it's a different game, that's a foolish and wishful statement. I think the same applies to UofL's turnovers. They are a part of the game.

UK was one of the most improved teams in the country in takeaways from the year before. Also, if I'm not mistaken they were ranked in the top 25 in turnover margin. UK was good at turning people over last year, and I expect them to improve more in that category this season.
 
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Not trying to take away from what KB did, but he was throwing to the best player on the field, and one of the best players in the country.

As much as I'd like to say take away Parker's production and it's a different game, that's a foolish and wishful statement. I think the same applies to UofL's turnovers. They are a part of the game.

UK was one of the most improved teams in the country in takeaways from the year before. Also, if I'm not mistaken they were ranked in the top 25 in turnover margin. UK was good at turning people over last year, and I expect them to improve more in that category this season.
You are right, that is all part of the game. As I said early in this thread, I will say that this year is UK's best chance to beat Louisville for some time, and with 8 home games and a weaker schedule it is your best chance to have a winning season as well. Your boys better make it count or Stoops will be on the hot seat and the vicious cycle of hire & fire will repeat and set your program back a few years. Again.
 

Steelers2012

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Not trying to take away from what KB did, but he was throwing to the best player on the field, and one of the best players in the country.

As much as I'd like to say take away Parker's production and it's a different game, that's a foolish and wishful statement. I think the same applies to UofL's turnovers. They are a part of the game.

UK was one of the most improved teams in the country in takeaways from the year before. Also, if I'm not mistaken they were ranked in the top 25 in turnover margin. UK was good at turning people over last year, and I expect them to improve more in that category this season.
Only 5 of Bolin's 21 completions went to Parker, so it's not like Bolin depended on Parker or that Parker had to make difficult catches from Bolin. And yes, UK did either cause those turnovers or took advantage of the unforced ones. The issue for UofL was that those 4 turnovers either immediately scored points or left UK with very short fields to score. It's one thing to turn the ball over; it's quite another to turn it over and either have the defense run it in, or immediately be in field goal/TD range.
 

cardstud1

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You are right, that is all part of the game. As I said early in this thread, I will say that this year is UK's best chance to beat Louisville for some time, and with 8 home games and a weaker schedule it is your best chance to have a winning season as well. Your boys better make it count or Stoops will be on the hot seat and the vicious cycle of hire & fire will repeat and set your program back a few years. Again.
  1. Barnfart would never fire Stoops! He is a Uakay BB supporter as is all Ukay!
 

zipp

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Anyone surprised that a team and program specializing in moral victories claims to have won the first quarter?

LPT Football: That should have been worth 0.25 wins...
 

zipp

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...UK was one of the most improved teams in the country in takeaways from the year before. Also, if I'm not mistaken they were ranked in the top 25 in turnover margin. UK was good at turning people over last year, and I expect them to improve more in that category this season.
Turnovers are certainly a big part of the game and should be a primary coaching focus. But you can't rely on turnovers to win games. It's more important to prevent them yourself to keep from losing games.

And cherry picking a stat like that instead of one more fundamental to the average game is like talking about your kicking game.

LPT Football: Two special team kids are SEC all conference...
 

Global Havok

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Only 5 of Bolin's 21 completions went to Parker, so it's not like Bolin depended on Parker or that Parker had to make difficult catches from Bolin. And yes, UK did either cause those turnovers or took advantage of the unforced ones. The issue for UofL was that those 4 turnovers either immediately scored points or left UK with very short fields to score. It's one thing to turn the ball over; it's quite another to turn it over and either have the defense run it in, or immediately be in field goal/TD range.
Parker had 180 yards and 3 TDs on 6 receptions. Granted only 5 of those were from KB, but Parker got the guy out of some tough situations. Without Parker's stats KB was 16-26 for 209 yards, zero TDs, an INT and a fumble. Parker was the difference in that game.

So just as the issue with UofL was that they turned it over giving UK points or a short field, UK's main issue was that they couldn't stop Parker at all.

Turnovers are certainly a big part of the game and should be a primary coaching focus. But you can't rely on turnovers to win games. It's more important to prevent them yourself to keep from losing games.

And cherry picking a stat like that instead of one more fundamental to the average game is like talking about your kicking game.

LPT Football: Two special team kids are SEC all conference...
What is more fundamental than protecting the ball and getting the ball?

I agree with you that turnovers should be a focus of every coach, and that it's more important to prevent them. UK was in the top 25 in turnover margin, so they excelled at both preventing and causing turnovers.
 
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Steelers, What I was getting at is that Louisville was doing nothing offensively with Bonnafon in the game. UK was ahead 13-0 at the point he went out and had control of the game up till then. Would UK have won the game, I don't know, but as soon as Bolin came in Louisville got the offense rolling.

Anyway, I believe UK is close to Louisville, not at their level yet, but getting closer. Hopefully we'll see more improvement this year, we need depth.
 

Steelers2012

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Steelers, What I was getting at is that Louisville was doing nothing offensively with Bonnafon in the game. UK was ahead 13-0 at the point he went out and had control of the game up till then. Would UK have won the game, I don't know, but as soon as Bolin came in Louisville got the offense rolling.

Anyway, I believe UK is close to Louisville, not at their level yet, but getting closer. Hopefully we'll see more improvement this year, we need depth.
I have no issue with the above statements. I was disagreeing with your assertion that UofL fans were claiming Bolin was the reason the game was close, when in fact Bolin was the reason we were able to overcome the very costly turnovers.
 

SpotHogCard

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I keep reading that last year's game at PJCS proves that UK has closed the gap considerably, and they should take the next step against us this year and beat us.

Let's look at the stats in that game, shall we??

1st Downs -- UK 14, U of L 22
3rd Down efficiency
-- UK 3-16 U of L 7-14
4th Down efficiency
-- UK 2-3 U of L 0-1
Plays net yards - UK 70-327 U of L 74 - 472
Rushes net yards
- UK 41 - 151 U of L 39 - 83
Passing yards - UK 176 U of L 398
Passes
- UK 14-29-2 U of L 22-35-2
Fumbles Lost
-- UK 1-0 U of L 2-2
Penalties -- UK 4-45 U of L 3 - 15
Time of Possession -- UK 28:54 U of L 31:06


WE dominated that game.
WE almost handed it to UK, but $h!t happens when your 3rd string QB is pressed into action after injury.
DeVante Parker had 180 yards receiving of the 398 total we rolled up in that game. He was a major factor, but hardly the only factor.


The gap between the programs is NOT that close.
UK's D is water, and that should concern ANY UK football fan since Mark Stoops is (supposedly) a defensive guy. He's yet to show that in Lexington. It shouldn't take 3 season to put your stamp on the program.

It's tough battling the delusion that always emanates from the east this time of year. And I am under no illusion that these facts will do anything to tamp that delusion down.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20141129_UK@LVILLE
I my best whiny a$$ nasaly sUcK fan voice (think Irkel). I bet you there will be a thread on Craps Ooze that basically reads; "The UL fans are posting facts again and they are making us look bad, don't they know we are in the $EC?"
 

zipp

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...What is more fundamental than protecting the ball and getting the ball?

I agree with you that turnovers should be a focus of every coach, and that it's more important to prevent them. UK was in the top 25 in turnover margin, so they excelled at both preventing and causing turnovers.
In economics, they have what are called leading, lagging, and coincident indicators. Something like turnovers are at best coincident or lagging with the actual outcome of a game.

You see defenders trying to strip the ball. But 4 times out of 5, the defender is better off tackling the guy and preventing the extra 5-10 yards on the carry.

Translated?... You don't use turnovers to win games--they're used to explain what happened, win or lose. Unless your team is prone to MAKING turnovers, telling me that LPT is going to improve in that regard is speculative and irrelevant prior to any game.

In truth, I hope that LPT is counting on forcing turnovers to win games. That reeks of desperation.

LPT Football: Why is that not a surprise?...
 
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cardstud1

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I have no issue with the above statements. I was disagreeing with your assertion that UofL fans were claiming Bolin was the reason the game was close, when in fact Bolin was the reason we were able to overcome the very costly turnovers.
When BOLIN CAME IN u4k was picked apart with his sizzling throws with accuracy! UKay was not prepared for him and it showed. The game flipped. What could have made a difference in scoring was that in ULs possession Bobby was not his usual self an deferred from scoring again!
 
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It's an interesting post, but don't you think for it to have made your point (that the gap is not closing), you'd need to compare the statistical gap in 2014 to the gap in 2013 and possibly 2012? Just showing the 2014 stats proves that UofL was the better team in 2014. I don't think a lot of people are in disagreement on that point.

I'll also note (and I don't think I really made much note of this before reading your post) that UofL seemed to have a hard time running the ball in that game. I realize that they passed the ball well, and that any team can stop the run if they put everybody on the LOS, etc, etc. But those numbers seem a far cry from the 03-06 BMFP days of ramming the ball down UK's throat over and over.
 
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It's an interesting post, but don't you think for it to have made your point (that the gap is not closing), you'd need to compare the statistical gap in 2014 to the gap in 2013 and possibly 2012? Just showing the 2014 stats proves that UofL was the better team in 2014. I don't think a lot of people are in disagreement on that point.

I'll also note (and I don't think I really made much note of this before reading your post) that UofL seemed to have a hard time running the ball in that game. I realize that they passed the ball well, and that any team can stop the run if they put everybody on the LOS, etc, etc. But those numbers seem a far cry from the 03-06 BMFP days of ramming the ball down UK's throat over and over.
Or you can look at it as in the Petrino Philosophy of Feeding the Studs...in those years you gave the ball to Eric Shelton and Michael Bush..this year the Stud was maybe the Best WR in College Football-(and my candidate for NFL Rookie of the Year) DeVante Parker.
 

CATFANFOLIFE87

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To have a valid point that the gap isn't closing you would've had to bring back the 10 NFL draft picks responsible for those numbers instead of losing them
 

Steelers2012

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To have a valid point that the gap isn't closing you would've had to bring back the 10 NFL draft picks responsible for those numbers instead of losing them
To have proof the gap has closed, you would need to have proof the next group of UofL players is less than the equal of last year's, AND have proof UK's team this year is better than last year's UK team. There is absolutely no way to prove either at this point, and any discussion of the matter is pure speculation.
 
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zipp

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Bottom line is there's very little difference statistically between Stupes' LPT teams and Joker's teams. AND there's very little evidence that Joker left the cupboard bare...His last two recruiting classes were Rivals rated 2.9-3.0 stars on average.

All you hear from LPT fans to base their optimism are distortions of reality (facts) and intangible stuff that can't be quantified. None of that's gonna lead to more wins or better performance against the SEC and U of L.

LPT Football: We hate facts...