I love breaking this game down, and I'm 15-4 against the spread in this rivalry since 2003. Although I've only picked the Cards once since 2018, losing in 2019, I am picking them this year and feel like we very well could see a double-digit win on Saturday if we are able to play a fairly clean game. Here's why:
It's no secret that the Wildcats under Mark Stoops have always prided themselves on physicality and defense. He loves old school ball - to run the ball, control the ball on offense, & stop the opponent from running it effectively. Ironically, this is precisely what we have hung our hat on recently too, so it's not exactly rocket science to say this game will be won by the team that executes that.
Specifically, which team has demonstrated the ability to run it and stop the run better? Answer that and you'll have your solid favorite. The team that can establish the running game and prevent its opponent from doing so has a huge advantage here. So, let's do a deeper dive and analyze UK's and UofL's ability to do this during the season.
UK Seasonal Rushing Performance
Ignoring FCS competition, UK has run for 135 yards per game against a schedule whose run defenses have allowed, on average, 137 yards per game, or about 2 yards less per game than their opponent generally allows. Their best performance by far was against Florida when they ran for 329 yards while Florida normally allows 162 yards per game for a gaudy +167. The Cats have not surpassed the 200-yard mark in any other game, nor have they generated a positive number except for a +54 against Missouri when they tallied 179 yards against a Tiger run defense that allows only 125 per game. Three times they were held under 100 yards rushing. In the other 8 games against FBS competition, UK has failed to rush for a yardage that exceeded what that opponent gives up per game. The Cats average rushing performance in those 8 games was a -26.
Kentucky's running game is led by Ray Davis who has rushed for 990 yards at a strong 5.8 yards per game clip. No other wildcat has rushed for 200 or more yards on the season. Davis rushed for 594 yards in 76 carries (7.8 ypc) in the team's first 5 games, including a sick 280 yards in 26 carries in the rout over Florida. Since that game over the next 6 games he has gotten a little banged up and cooled down, running for only 396 yards on 96 carries (4.1 ypc).
UofL Seasonal Rushing Performance
The Cards have run for 180 yards per game against FBS defenses that allow 154 yards per game, or for about 26 yards per game above what their opponent normally allows. Their best performance number this year was a +78 against Duke when they ran for 234 yards against a Blue Devil run defense who usually only allows 156 yards per game. The Cards have surpassed 200 rushing yards in 2 other games vs Ga Tech and Va Tech, but generated a -78 at Pitt (88 rushing yards) and a -83 at NC State (20 rushing yards). All other games were positive numbers. Louisville has faced slightly weaker rush defenses, statistically, than UK has, but has outperformed them.
Jawar Jordan leads the Cards in rushing with 1,009 yards on 150 carries (6.7 ypc). Jordan has been slowed a bit in recent games, but Issac Gurendo has stepped right in and performed. Guerendo has gained 585 yards in 92 carries (6.4 ypc), emerging as of late with an impressive 333 yards in only 32 carries (10.4 ypc) in his last 3 games.
UK Rush Defense
Kentucky has a pretty strong rush defense, holding their opponents, who average 146 rushing yards per game, to only 111 yards per game, or 35 yards less than they normally rush for. They have held 6 of their 10 FBS opponents to under 100 yards, although three of those (Akron, Vandy, South Carolina) average less than 100 yards per game and are ranked in the bottom 10 rushing teams in FBS. Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are the only teams to rush for over 150 yards on them. Tennessee did rush for 253 on them.
UofL Rush Defense
Louisville has produced even more impressive numbers than UK. The Cards opponents are averaging 158 rushing yards per game, and none are averaging less than 100 yards per game. Yet, the Cards rush defense is allowing a very stingy 98 yards per game, nearly 60 yards below their average, and has also kept 6 of its 10 FBS opponents below 100 yards. Only Miami and Ga Tech rushed for over 150 yards, but both were held to less than their average output. In fact, no Cardinal opponent has rushed for more than their season average against the Cards.
Predicting the Rushing Yards for Both Teams
Kentucky rush offense averages 135 per game and 2 yards less than their opponents allow on average VS Louisville run defense that holds teams to 98 yards per game and 60 yards below their opponents normal output:
UK Rushing Prediction = (135 - 60) + (98 - 2)/2 = 85.5
Louisville rush offense averages 180 yards per game and 26 yards above what their opponents usually allow VS a UK rush defense that gives up 111 yards per game and 35 yards below their opponents' normal output:
UofL Rushing Prediction = (180 -35) + (111 + 26)/2 = 141
Conclusion
In most years, the team that wins the rushing total is the team that wins this game. I think that is super important this year because both teams are really going to try to do that. The team more successful will create better down & distances, apply pressure to the opposing defense, and create more passing opportunities. Although I don't anticipate either team to rush for a lot of yards, I do believe the Cards will be more successful and this will lead to victory in a physical, hard fought, fairly low-scoring game.
The spread currently sits at Cards -6.5 or -7, with an over/under of 50.5.
My anticipated play is:
1) 1X same game parlay of Cards point spread (-7 or less) and Under (48 or more)
2) 3X Louisville point spread (<-7) or 2X at -7
3) 2X Under (48 or 49) or 3X Under (50 or above)
Final Score Prediction - Louisville wins 27-17 (if Leary has long TD pass) or 27-13 (if he doesn't)
Good Luck!
It's no secret that the Wildcats under Mark Stoops have always prided themselves on physicality and defense. He loves old school ball - to run the ball, control the ball on offense, & stop the opponent from running it effectively. Ironically, this is precisely what we have hung our hat on recently too, so it's not exactly rocket science to say this game will be won by the team that executes that.
Specifically, which team has demonstrated the ability to run it and stop the run better? Answer that and you'll have your solid favorite. The team that can establish the running game and prevent its opponent from doing so has a huge advantage here. So, let's do a deeper dive and analyze UK's and UofL's ability to do this during the season.
UK Seasonal Rushing Performance
Ignoring FCS competition, UK has run for 135 yards per game against a schedule whose run defenses have allowed, on average, 137 yards per game, or about 2 yards less per game than their opponent generally allows. Their best performance by far was against Florida when they ran for 329 yards while Florida normally allows 162 yards per game for a gaudy +167. The Cats have not surpassed the 200-yard mark in any other game, nor have they generated a positive number except for a +54 against Missouri when they tallied 179 yards against a Tiger run defense that allows only 125 per game. Three times they were held under 100 yards rushing. In the other 8 games against FBS competition, UK has failed to rush for a yardage that exceeded what that opponent gives up per game. The Cats average rushing performance in those 8 games was a -26.
Kentucky's running game is led by Ray Davis who has rushed for 990 yards at a strong 5.8 yards per game clip. No other wildcat has rushed for 200 or more yards on the season. Davis rushed for 594 yards in 76 carries (7.8 ypc) in the team's first 5 games, including a sick 280 yards in 26 carries in the rout over Florida. Since that game over the next 6 games he has gotten a little banged up and cooled down, running for only 396 yards on 96 carries (4.1 ypc).
UofL Seasonal Rushing Performance
The Cards have run for 180 yards per game against FBS defenses that allow 154 yards per game, or for about 26 yards per game above what their opponent normally allows. Their best performance number this year was a +78 against Duke when they ran for 234 yards against a Blue Devil run defense who usually only allows 156 yards per game. The Cards have surpassed 200 rushing yards in 2 other games vs Ga Tech and Va Tech, but generated a -78 at Pitt (88 rushing yards) and a -83 at NC State (20 rushing yards). All other games were positive numbers. Louisville has faced slightly weaker rush defenses, statistically, than UK has, but has outperformed them.
Jawar Jordan leads the Cards in rushing with 1,009 yards on 150 carries (6.7 ypc). Jordan has been slowed a bit in recent games, but Issac Gurendo has stepped right in and performed. Guerendo has gained 585 yards in 92 carries (6.4 ypc), emerging as of late with an impressive 333 yards in only 32 carries (10.4 ypc) in his last 3 games.
UK Rush Defense
Kentucky has a pretty strong rush defense, holding their opponents, who average 146 rushing yards per game, to only 111 yards per game, or 35 yards less than they normally rush for. They have held 6 of their 10 FBS opponents to under 100 yards, although three of those (Akron, Vandy, South Carolina) average less than 100 yards per game and are ranked in the bottom 10 rushing teams in FBS. Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee are the only teams to rush for over 150 yards on them. Tennessee did rush for 253 on them.
UofL Rush Defense
Louisville has produced even more impressive numbers than UK. The Cards opponents are averaging 158 rushing yards per game, and none are averaging less than 100 yards per game. Yet, the Cards rush defense is allowing a very stingy 98 yards per game, nearly 60 yards below their average, and has also kept 6 of its 10 FBS opponents below 100 yards. Only Miami and Ga Tech rushed for over 150 yards, but both were held to less than their average output. In fact, no Cardinal opponent has rushed for more than their season average against the Cards.
Predicting the Rushing Yards for Both Teams
Kentucky rush offense averages 135 per game and 2 yards less than their opponents allow on average VS Louisville run defense that holds teams to 98 yards per game and 60 yards below their opponents normal output:
UK Rushing Prediction = (135 - 60) + (98 - 2)/2 = 85.5
Louisville rush offense averages 180 yards per game and 26 yards above what their opponents usually allow VS a UK rush defense that gives up 111 yards per game and 35 yards below their opponents' normal output:
UofL Rushing Prediction = (180 -35) + (111 + 26)/2 = 141
Conclusion
In most years, the team that wins the rushing total is the team that wins this game. I think that is super important this year because both teams are really going to try to do that. The team more successful will create better down & distances, apply pressure to the opposing defense, and create more passing opportunities. Although I don't anticipate either team to rush for a lot of yards, I do believe the Cards will be more successful and this will lead to victory in a physical, hard fought, fairly low-scoring game.
The spread currently sits at Cards -6.5 or -7, with an over/under of 50.5.
My anticipated play is:
1) 1X same game parlay of Cards point spread (-7 or less) and Under (48 or more)
2) 3X Louisville point spread (<-7) or 2X at -7
3) 2X Under (48 or 49) or 3X Under (50 or above)
Final Score Prediction - Louisville wins 27-17 (if Leary has long TD pass) or 27-13 (if he doesn't)
Good Luck!
