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Projected win total

The week 2 bowl projections over at ESPN have lowered their expectations for us ... Kyle Bonagura still has us in the "Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl" on December 20th against Houston, but Mitch Sherman has chosen Syracuse in the Military Bowl on December 31st instead of Louisville.
 
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I honestly have no clue what to expect going forward. All we have to analyze is a game against the Dynasty of our Age, and a hurricane game. Also, 2 of our QB's appear to be banged up. It'll be interesting to see how they perform against WKU in a "normal" game.
 
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The Cards stock is trending down for sure.

You had to expect they would lose some value due to losing a Heisman trophy winning quarterback.

They need to dispel the idea/thought of “Lamar and a bunch of other dudes.”
 
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There are plenty of reasons not to fold your tents yet. We lost what we all consider a major QB-ing force and simply replaced him with a guy who was successful on 80% of his drives, The defense seemed soft against the run, I grant that, but the 200 yards we gave up only led to 7 points in an entire ballgame.

We remain mysterious but the very idea of only winning 5 games is too weird to even contemplate. We are most certainly used to a higher result.
 
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Anybody predicting 5 wins must not have seen the hot garbage that was the rest of the ACC through the first 2 weeks. Not sure what people expected us to do given the circumstances of our first 2 games. If we remain healthy outside of JG we shouldn’t win fewer than 7 games.
 
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Big boy football is won in the trenches - plain and simple. You must have depth on both the offensive and defensive lines along with a consistent run game.

You can throw it around and have a good time with that, but until we are able to hire good assistants (not sure Bobby can), develop depth on the lines, and run the ball down people’s throats - well, then we’re just gonna be another program.
 
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ShortCreek said:
Big boy football is won in the trenches - plain and simple. You must have depth on both the offensive and defensive lines along with a consistent run game.

You can throw it around and have a good time with that, but until we are able to hire good assistants (not sure Bobby can), develop depth on the lines, and run the ball down people’s throats - well, then we’re just gonna be another program.
Click to expand...

I agree 100% with you. Well said.
 
Louisville is definitely in a weird place right now. After this weeks game Louisville plays their last 9 games against teams that could easily beat them and it not be surprising at all. How they do after this week will in my mind say a lot about Petrino and the immediate expectations for the program. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Louisville lose to Wake, BC and NC State again. Syracuse looks better, FSU has another couple of weeks to get it together, UK looks way better than Louisville right now....so the next 9 games will go a long way in determining what this program does moving forward IMO.
 
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EKYCard643 said:
Louisville is definitely in a weird place right now. After this weeks game Louisville plays their last 9 games against teams that could easily beat them and it not be surprising at all. How they do after this week will in my mind say a lot about Petrino and the immediate expectations for the program. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Louisville lose to Wake, BC and NC State again. Syracuse looks better, FSU has another couple of weeks to get it together, UK looks way better than Louisville right now....so the next 9 games will go a long way in determining what this program does moving forward IMO.
Click to expand...

Agree. WKU is the only game left on their schedule in my opinion that you can book right now as a win. All of the other games aside from Clemson are 50/50.

I'm not jumping on the get BP out of town bus yet... My concern is that there is no Lamar to mask (Lamar did not mask them all) the other issues (e.g. offensive/defensive line, secondary and overall defense, running game, lack of discipline, etc.) with this team.

We have some data... The data we get over the next 10 games will be telling. You can also make the case that this group may need another year.
 
LouisvilleKid79 said:
Agree. WKU is the only game left on their schedule in my opinion that you can book right now as a win. All of the other games aside from Clemson are 50/50.

I'm not jumping on the get BP out of town bus yet... My concern is that there is no Lamar to mask (Lamar did not mask them all) the other issues (e.g. offensive/defensive line, secondary and overall defense, running game, lack of discipline, etc.) with this team.

We have some data... The data we get over the next 10 games will be telling. You can also make the case that this group may need another year.
Click to expand...

Yep....and honestly, I hope I'm wrong but if I were forced to put money on this seasons record, I would probably lean toward 6-6/5-7. Nothing over the last 4+ years gives me any confidence that UL will "exceed" expectations the rest of the way. My worry is that we limp to 7-5, lose to UK again, but Petrino is retained because we got back to a bowl and we start the process all over again next year. We get all hyped up about all the improvement the team is going to make next Summer and how much better Pass and the lines are going to be and we get absolutely drilled by Notre Dame, rack up 10+ penalties and look generally out of sorts once again next year.
 
EKYCard643 said:
It wouldn't shock me at all to see Louisville lose to Wake, BC and NC State again. Syracuse looks better, FSU has another couple of weeks to get it together, UK looks way better than Louisville right now...
Click to expand...
Wake has not played well at all. I’m sorry but I’m not going to be impressed with UK based upon wins against a directional Michigan school projected to finish in the bottom half of the MAC and a school that won 4 games last year in the weakest division of any Power 5 conference. Virginia is very bad right now. Syracuse hasn’t played anyone. Right now NC State doesn’t appear as good as they were last year. Georgia Tech has a very suspect defense. Florida St hasn’t looked good. The only teams left on the schedule clearly better than UofL are Clemson and BC. That doesn’t mean the Cards will beat everyone else but it’s certainly reasonable to believe they will win a good percentage of them. Especially when the games against Wake, NC State, FSU, Georgia Tech and UK are at our place.
I said before the season I thought the Cards would win 7. I still think that. But I also think it’s more likely they win 8 than it is likely they win 6.
 
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There have been few expectations exceeded since and including the game with Houston in 2016.

Since then:

0-3 2016 (with Lamar)
8-5 2017 (with Lamar)
1-1 2018

Tough for Cardinals fans.

In that span,

4-4 vs the ACC
1-4 vs the SEC
1-0 vs the B1G
0-1 vs the AAC
3-0 vs All the Little Sisters (Murray State, Kent State, Indiana State)
 
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Guardman said:
There have been few expectations exceeded since and including the game with Houston in 2016.

Since then:

0-3 2016 (with Lamar)
8-5 2017 (with Lamar)
1-1 2018

Tough for Cardinals fans.

In that span,

4-4 vs the ACC
1-4 vs the SEC
1-0 vs the B1G
0-1 vs the AAC
3-0 vs All the Little Sisters (Murray State, Kent State, Indiana State)
Click to expand...

Well, this really questions the validity of Bobby Ball 2.0. I do not believe Bobby will be here much longer, because he sure as hell is not getting it done. Folks this is year five and look at the mess! Time for some new blood for the program.
 
wilkie01 said:
Well, this really questions the validity of Bobby Ball 2.0. I do not believe Bobby will be here much longer, because he sure as hell is not getting it done. Folks this is year five and look at the mess! Time for some new blood for the program.
Click to expand...
I am NOT questioning Bobby Ball. These are simple facts. Let's hope for the best.
 
Guardman said:
There have been few expectations exceeded since and including the game with Houston in 2016.

Since then:

0-3 2016 (with Lamar)
8-5 2017 (with Lamar)
1-1 2018

Tough for Cardinals fans.

In that span,

4-4 vs the ACC
1-4 vs the SEC
1-0 vs the B1G
0-1 vs the AAC
3-0 vs All the Little Sisters (Murray State, Kent State, Indiana State)
Click to expand...

I guess Zipp is busy so I'll take a stab at this... These stats present Petrino in the worst possible light but don't tell the whole story. These numbers don't mention anything about having arguably our 2 best recruiting classes in school history the past 2 years, recruiting and developing a Heisman winner, and how many Bowls Petrino has taken us to. They don't mention that Petrino tied to win our division once. That Petrino hasn't won less than 8 games since coming back and has won 9. They don't mention that we've beaten Florida State 2 years in a row. How close we came to beating Clemson.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, there are a lot of positive things going on here, not all negative. I believe we should stay the course with Petrino.
 
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I am totally fine with BP. He is doing lots of good things! I suspect the malaise the Cards are in will improve.
 
I do have an issue with going just 1-4 vs the SEC, even with Lamar playing all those games. And going 4-4 vs. the ACC, even with Lamar playing all those games.

I don't consider all those results to be entirely "on Bobby". It is a team sport. Coaching and Playing. But the Cards shouldn't be 5-8 vs the ACC/SEC in the last 1.5 seasons. Not with Lamar.

It is BP's responsibility to fix this. And I think he will. And I hope it doesn't take 3 or 4 more years.
 
EKYCard643 said:
we start the process all over again next year. We get all hyped up about all the improvement the team is going to make next Summer and how much better Pass and the lines are going to be and we get absolutely drilled by Notre Dame, rack up 10+ penalties and look generally out of sorts once again next year.
Click to expand...

Can you clarify what "process" would be started over?

I agree, next year will be a new year. The year will start over. Not sure it will be hype, but yes there will be some posters that will have the audacity to say whichever green QB wins this job might get better next year with experience under their belt - assuming a starter is clarified. That might be a big assumption! Same goes for FR/Soph at other positions that see the field and make a few plays, maybe. Maybe! Damn you Petrino.


I get it, you and a few others are in the BP is under-achieving zone. While I think some of these expectations are absolutely bizarre with zero historical evidence at UofL pointing to WHY some fans have annual T5/T10 expectations - that's ok. Different opinions make for a good talk!

Keep in mind the majority of the message board community predicted 7-8 wins this year - so it's not like EVERY year comes with hype around here. There were actually some UofL fans on this message board that realized replacing a H Trophy winner and pretty much EVERYBODY on a defense that wasn't all that good the year before might not lead to a big year. Voters in the Preseason AP T25 poll agreed, not 1 single vote for the Cards.

Hopefully you didn't stop reading by now. I enjoy your posts. I get that you are disappointed, and think the program is in neutral. It might be! It may even be in reverse. My crystal ball says..... ???

We all want to be Top10 relevant every year. Or a few more years! Or one year, like BP round 1. Or that Teddy B party. Not just you man. Just not so sure how fair of a goal that is. But hey. Think big. HS state talent recruiting pool and historical evidence to hell!

C-A-R-D-S


https://louisville.forums.rivals.com/threads/2018-season-predictions.40092/
 
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wilkie01 said:
Well, this really questions the validity of Bobby Ball 2.0. I do not believe Bobby will be here much longer, because he sure as hell is not getting it done. Folks this is year five and look at the mess! Time for some new blood for the program.
Click to expand...

Those stats look to me like we should just quit playing really good SEC teams, and stick to UK....
 
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Guardman said:
There have been few expectations exceeded since and including the game with Houston in 2016.

Since then:

0-3 2016 (with Lamar)
8-5 2017 (with Lamar)
1-1 2018

Tough for Cardinals fans.

In that span,

4-4 vs the ACC
1-4 vs the SEC
1-0 vs the B1G
0-1 vs the AAC
3-0 vs All the Little Sisters (Murray State, Kent State, Indiana State)
Click to expand...
You conveniently leave out the other 9 games in 2016. That was the year Louisville tied Clemson for the best record in the ACC. Clemson just happened to win the national championship that year and many regarded the ACC as the best conference in football that year. As another poster noted the Cards have had two highly regarded recruiting classes the last two years. I’m not going to panic because we got stomped by an NFL team and “only” beat ISU by 24 in a monsoon.
 
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BP1 was 41-9.

BP2 was 26-9 until the Houston game.

BP2 has been 9-9 since the Houston game.

Actually pretty striking.
 
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Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
Can you clarify what "process" would be started over?

I agree, next year will be a new year. The year will start over. Not sure it will be hype, but yes there will be some posters that will have the audacity to say whichever green QB wins this job might get better next year with experience under their belt - assuming a starter is clarified. That might be a big assumption! Same goes for FR/Soph at other positions that see the field and make a few plays, maybe. Maybe! Damn you Petrino.


I get it, you and a few others are in the BP is under-achieving zone. While I think some of these expectations are absolutely bizarre with zero historical evidence at UofL pointing to WHY some fans have annual T5/T10 expectations - that's ok. Different opinions make for a good talk!

Keep in mind the majority of the message board community predicted 7-8 wins this year - so it's not like EVERY year comes with hype around here. There were actually some UofL fans on this message board that realized replacing a H Trophy winner and pretty much EVERYBODY on a defense that wasn't all that good the year before might not lead to a big year. Voters in the Preseason AP T25 poll agreed, not 1 single vote for the Cards.

Hopefully you didn't stop reading by now. I enjoy your posts. I get that you are disappointed, and think the program is in neutral. It might be! It may even be in reverse. My crystal ball says..... ???

We all want to be Top10 relevant every year. Or a few more years! Or one year, like BP round 1. Or that Teddy B party. Not just you man. Just not so sure how fair of a goal that is. But hey. Think big. HS state talent recruiting pool and historical evidence to hell!

C-A-R-D-S


https://louisville.forums.rivals.com/threads/2018-season-predictions.40092/
Click to expand...

The "process" I was referring to was the process of thinking that was going to be the year that the football program started to fix the issues of the previous year, that this would be the year that even if we don't challenge Clemson for the divisional title, we still improve. My problem with Bobby isn't as much about wins and losses as it is about issues we saw in year 1, still being an issue in year 5. Still sloppy, still undisciplined on defense, still in the bottom for penalties (124, 82, 118th, 110, 108, Louisville's rankings in penalties.) Still in the bottom for giveaways - (102, 81, 124, 111, 109, last 5 years) Bobby is still trying to find even a mediocre DC that will stick with him. Grantham had good stats and turnovers but could never get a stop when they absolutely had to and it seems like every assistant he has that isn't his family jumps at the opportunity to leave. This was all an issue in year 1 and its still an issue now with no absolutely ZERO signs of improvement.

Stagnation is what I absolutely hate worse than anything in sports and its the worst place to be in for an organization. But I would rather go for broke trying to build my team/program into a contender than sticking with the same old formula just because its "good enough." Look at the Bengals this off season.... I say this with no hyperbole or exaggeration, bringing back Marvin Lewis was the dumbest thing I can recall a football team doing in maybe my lifetime. Mike Brown basically said...."ah, 7-8 wins is good enough" and I feel like thats where our program is...."ah, we beat UK 90% of the time and we're going to bowls so we're doing good."

To me personally....Petrino has shown his ability to "maintain" the status quo the last 5 years but he's shown me absolutely zero ability to elevate the program and thats a deal breaker for me.
 
EKYCard643 said:
The "process" I was referring to was the process of thinking that was going to be the year that the football program started to fix the issues of the previous year, that this would be the year that even if we don't challenge Clemson for the divisional title, we still improve. .
Click to expand...

So you are okay with fixing penalties and defensive problems even if an increase in wins doesn't happen?

Here's one thing about losing in sports. There's always going to be a reason why a team loses, making that part of it almost inconsequential. If you don't bite it from cancer, it could be diabetes or a car wreck. Either way - you're going to die somehow.

It's also pretty easy as an arm chair QB to say go for broke on hiring/firing practices. It ain't monopoly $. If you're having a hard time stomaching the 8/9 win seasons what are you going to do if/when the next guy gets 3/5 win seasons?

Were you a shirtless fan in the crowd during the Kragthorpe era with the C on your chest? You weren't. Nobody was.

Here's the truth - and I say this to you as a fellow fan that "wants" all the wins we can get, just like you.

You want to be tOSU, Clemson, OU, or Alabama. You want to be a consistent T5/T10 program.

That's a small fraternity, and it ain't realistic given the chips you got to play with in your back yard.

Moving on from Petrino would be moving on just for the reason of moving on, trying a different soda out of the machine. Fritos over Ruffles. Hold it I think I'd do that too actually.

Keep in mind, ain't a coach worth a crap going to want this job if the guy before him with Petrino's overall resume and a 5 year run of 9, 8, 9, 8, and ____ 5 or 7 this year? gets shown the door. Nobody would want this job under that premise. You would end up with a really bad hire under that kind of circumstance. You'd go from cheese that's been sitting out on the table for a few hours to from unda cheese.

Yikes!

Hey maybe I'm wrong.
 
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Ipartiedwithhopgood said:
So you are okay with fixing penalties and defensive problems even if an increase in wins doesn't happen?

Here's one thing about losing in sports. There's always going to be a reason why a team loses, making that part of it almost inconsequential. If you don't bite it from cancer, it could be diabetes or a car wreck. Either way - you're going to die somehow.

It's also pretty easy as an arm chair QB to say go for broke on hiring/firing practices. It ain't monopoly $. If you're having a hard time stomaching the 8/9 win seasons what are you going to do if/when the next guy gets 3/5 win seasons?

Were you a shirtless fan in the crowd during the Kragthorpe era with the C on your chest? You weren't. Nobody was.

Here's the truth - and I say this to you as a fellow fan that "wants" all the wins we can get, just like you.

You want to be tOSU, Clemson, OU, or Alabama. You want to be a consistent T5/T10 program.

That's a small fraternity, and it ain't realistic given the chips you got to play with in your back yard.

Moving on from Petrino would be moving on just for the reason of moving on, trying a different soda out of the machine. Fritos over Ruffles. Hold it I think I'd do that too actually.

Keep in mind, ain't a coach worth a crap going to want this job if the guy before him with Petrino's overall resume and a 5 year run of 9, 8, 9, 8, and ____ 5 or 7 this year? gets shown the door. Nobody would want this job. You would end up with a really bad hire under that kind of circumstance.

Hey maybe I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

My statement about wins not mattering was s little misleading...if UL would improve in the areas that I listed then there's a highly, likely chance that the wins would also increase. Here's a basic question for you then, is the UL football program in a better place now than they were in year 1 of Bobby? We got all the hype from the Lamar campaign but aside from the FSU game and highlights vs teams like Syracuse and UVA it was mostly discussions about him not performing against good teams.

As I said, my major, major issue with Bobby is that UL has the same problems now as they did 5 years ago and he's shown me personally absolutely no reason to think that he's going to build UL into anything more that a decent top 40 program that wins 8 games a year and loses to every quality opponent they face.

Improve the discipline.
Limit the turnovers.
Get a quality DC in place.
Stop being absolutely atrocious with the penalties. I'll accept some improvement....not always being in the bottom 20% would be nice.
 
EKYCard643 said:
My statement about wins not mattering was s little misleading...if UL would improve in the areas that I listed then there's a highly, likely chance that the wins would also increase.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. The trade off may be you get a different type of player altogether, maybe bigger, maybe smaller, maybe slower, etc... must run a different more vanilla and less effective playbook. System may have to change entirely to reduce miscues. Other aspects of the program may break down.

You may start losing for other reasons. Then you wouldn't like those reasons either.

That's all I'm saying here.
 
EKYCard643 said:
Here's a basic question for you then, is the UL football program in a better place now than they were in year 1 of Bobby?
Click to expand...

Year 1 was a transition from CUSA and the QB he inherited was Will Gardner.

I think from a National Perspective - yes, the Cards are in a better position. They have established themselves as a competitive program in the ACC. They have proven they can go toe to toe with the top 2 programs in the league. They have whipped FSU once and won at their place once. They took Clemson to the wire people seem to forget in this time frame Clemson been nearly unbeatable and use the 0-4 vs Clemson as some kind of unacceptable mark.

They have an offense that produced a H Trophy winner and that's the kind of stuff you can talk about on recruiting when you're trying to recruit guys like Cunningham out of SEC country.

The Cards may finally have stability at the HC position unless he chooses to leave and that also puts them in a better position than when he first got here and a coach was leaving every 4th year. So if he's willing to stay then that gives the program continuity.
 
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EKYCard643 said:
no reason to think that he's going to build UL into anything more that a decent top 40 program that wins 8 games a year and loses to every quality opponent they face.
Click to expand...

Well actually his teams have won 9 games twice out of four tries so he's already literally achieving more than you are crediting him for.

So what are you now doing is rewriting the history.

9 > 8.

And there is so much evidence of sustained excellence at the UofL football program for you to cite as well?

Point me to the sustained stretch of excellence so that we can compare this product to it.
 
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I'm just saying, we're in year 5 and all signs point to more of the same this year. It may not be this year, it may not be next year, but at some point Louisville is going to have to step back and evaluate if 8 wins a year is where they want to be as a program. Maybe in year 7 things finally click or year 8 is the year Petrino leads us to the playoff and we finally beat Clemson but if not there's going to be a time where people get tired losing to every good program we play and going to the CarQuest Autosmart Quick Lube Bowl every year.
 
EKYCard643 said:
he's going to build UL into anything more that a decent top 40 program that wins 8 games a year and loses to every quality opponent they face.
Click to expand...

Also he beat FSU here on game day and won @ ND who beat LSU in a bowl so there is evidence he's not losing to every quality opponent he faces. And when these quality opponents names are Clemson, Alabama, FSU, Georgia, ND, and LSU not sure why we should be beating them more either?

I think our fans get crossed with basketball. Yes, in basketball you can rattle off a # of quality wins, you're playing 10-12 quality opponents a year, maybe more.

In football not as many.

Are we REALLY getting after Petrino because he's 0-7 against Bama, Clemson, LSU, and Georgia? If we are - we just don't know who we are.

This is the Louisville board not the Ohio State board.

Or maybe it isn't.
 
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