I know many Cards fans have put a lot of emphasis on the Houston game for our chances to make the playoff. I'm here to tell them that only losing to the Cougars should be a concern. The Houston loss to Navy doesn't change the reality of what it will take for the Cards to make the playoff. The Cards don't need to impress the polls or at least one guy on the playoff committee. We are already receiving tons of respect by the media as a team that is worthy of playing in the playoff. Most if not all were picking us to beat Houston anyway, so it wasn't like the Cougars were another Clemson.
Strength of schedule is not going to be a factor. Mostly due to the unbelievable play of Lamar Jackson, the Cards have passed the eye test. Many in the media have even said the Cards would beat Clemson on a neutral field and are one of a handful of teams that would give Alabama fits. None of this changed now that Houston lost to Navy. The Cards playoff chances are the same now as they were before Houston lost today.
As I see it, the Cards should have taken care of business when the first BCS polls come out. I'm not sure if it's called BCS but it's the poll that ultimately decides the four teams in the playoff. I suspect the Cards will at least be in the top 6, depending on who loses by then. They could be higher say if Texas A&M loses to Alabama. If the Cards continue to win, even over a one loss Houston team, they will stay high in the poll. To make the playoff we simply need some power 5 teams to lose. I've looked at all the teams involved and here is how I see it.
I think even if Alabama has a loss, they will be in the playoff if they win the SEC championship. Same thing with Texas A&M and Tennessee. Any of those teams win the SEC and have one loss will be in.
Clemson is in unless they lose twice, including the ACC championship, If the ACC champion let's say Miami or Virginia Tech have two losses, I can't see them making it over a one loss Cards team. This because the Cards would be ranked so high in the poll. It would be controversial for sure if the Cards were jumped by a two loss ACC champion. Now if the ACC champion has one loss, they would get the nod over the Cards.
The Big 10 has only two teams that will have a chance in my opinion and it's a strong possibility both would make it. Looking at the schedules, I don't see either OSU or Michigan losing a game until they play that last game. The loser of that game, especially if it's close will have a strong argument to get in over the Cards.
Baylor is the only Big 12 team that can make the playoff. WVU is currently undefeated but I don't see that lasting. Baylor has a couple of tough games including a road game against Oklahoma. It would be interesting to see if a one loss Baylor team would make it over the Cards.
Washington is in the drivers seat in the Pac 12. They would be hard to pass up even with one loss. I think they're the only PAC 12 team that will avoid a 2nd loss.
Of course everything I've written here could be totally wrong. There are still teams with zero or one loss who I haven't mentioned who could win out and get a playoff spot over the Cards. Teams like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Utah, and Stanford. I think however the Cards chances will come down to three teams.
Ohio State
Michigan
Washington.
I predict Alabama and Clemson will be in. The winner of the OSU/Michigan game will be in. For Louisville to make it, Washington must have more than one loss. There's a chance they could be passed up if their one loss is the PAC 12 championship game. Say to a 2 or 3 loss team. I still believe it will come down to the OSU/Michigan game. If that's a 35-32 thriller both will get in and the Cards will be the last team on the outside looking in. I think this would be the case no matter how many games Houston may lose.
Everything has to fall into place for the Cards to make the playoff. The one thing that helps us more than anything is Lamar Jackson. If we're 11-1 he most likely wins the Heisman and that could get us over the top.
Strength of schedule is not going to be a factor. Mostly due to the unbelievable play of Lamar Jackson, the Cards have passed the eye test. Many in the media have even said the Cards would beat Clemson on a neutral field and are one of a handful of teams that would give Alabama fits. None of this changed now that Houston lost to Navy. The Cards playoff chances are the same now as they were before Houston lost today.
As I see it, the Cards should have taken care of business when the first BCS polls come out. I'm not sure if it's called BCS but it's the poll that ultimately decides the four teams in the playoff. I suspect the Cards will at least be in the top 6, depending on who loses by then. They could be higher say if Texas A&M loses to Alabama. If the Cards continue to win, even over a one loss Houston team, they will stay high in the poll. To make the playoff we simply need some power 5 teams to lose. I've looked at all the teams involved and here is how I see it.
I think even if Alabama has a loss, they will be in the playoff if they win the SEC championship. Same thing with Texas A&M and Tennessee. Any of those teams win the SEC and have one loss will be in.
Clemson is in unless they lose twice, including the ACC championship, If the ACC champion let's say Miami or Virginia Tech have two losses, I can't see them making it over a one loss Cards team. This because the Cards would be ranked so high in the poll. It would be controversial for sure if the Cards were jumped by a two loss ACC champion. Now if the ACC champion has one loss, they would get the nod over the Cards.
The Big 10 has only two teams that will have a chance in my opinion and it's a strong possibility both would make it. Looking at the schedules, I don't see either OSU or Michigan losing a game until they play that last game. The loser of that game, especially if it's close will have a strong argument to get in over the Cards.
Baylor is the only Big 12 team that can make the playoff. WVU is currently undefeated but I don't see that lasting. Baylor has a couple of tough games including a road game against Oklahoma. It would be interesting to see if a one loss Baylor team would make it over the Cards.
Washington is in the drivers seat in the Pac 12. They would be hard to pass up even with one loss. I think they're the only PAC 12 team that will avoid a 2nd loss.
Of course everything I've written here could be totally wrong. There are still teams with zero or one loss who I haven't mentioned who could win out and get a playoff spot over the Cards. Teams like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Utah, and Stanford. I think however the Cards chances will come down to three teams.
Ohio State
Michigan
Washington.
I predict Alabama and Clemson will be in. The winner of the OSU/Michigan game will be in. For Louisville to make it, Washington must have more than one loss. There's a chance they could be passed up if their one loss is the PAC 12 championship game. Say to a 2 or 3 loss team. I still believe it will come down to the OSU/Michigan game. If that's a 35-32 thriller both will get in and the Cards will be the last team on the outside looking in. I think this would be the case no matter how many games Houston may lose.
Everything has to fall into place for the Cards to make the playoff. The one thing that helps us more than anything is Lamar Jackson. If we're 11-1 he most likely wins the Heisman and that could get us over the top.