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Louisville's playoff chances

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TheRealVille

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I know many Cards fans have put a lot of emphasis on the Houston game for our chances to make the playoff. I'm here to tell them that only losing to the Cougars should be a concern. The Houston loss to Navy doesn't change the reality of what it will take for the Cards to make the playoff. The Cards don't need to impress the polls or at least one guy on the playoff committee. We are already receiving tons of respect by the media as a team that is worthy of playing in the playoff. Most if not all were picking us to beat Houston anyway, so it wasn't like the Cougars were another Clemson.

Strength of schedule is not going to be a factor. Mostly due to the unbelievable play of Lamar Jackson, the Cards have passed the eye test. Many in the media have even said the Cards would beat Clemson on a neutral field and are one of a handful of teams that would give Alabama fits. None of this changed now that Houston lost to Navy. The Cards playoff chances are the same now as they were before Houston lost today.

As I see it, the Cards should have taken care of business when the first BCS polls come out. I'm not sure if it's called BCS but it's the poll that ultimately decides the four teams in the playoff. I suspect the Cards will at least be in the top 6, depending on who loses by then. They could be higher say if Texas A&M loses to Alabama. If the Cards continue to win, even over a one loss Houston team, they will stay high in the poll. To make the playoff we simply need some power 5 teams to lose. I've looked at all the teams involved and here is how I see it.

I think even if Alabama has a loss, they will be in the playoff if they win the SEC championship. Same thing with Texas A&M and Tennessee. Any of those teams win the SEC and have one loss will be in.

Clemson is in unless they lose twice, including the ACC championship, If the ACC champion let's say Miami or Virginia Tech have two losses, I can't see them making it over a one loss Cards team. This because the Cards would be ranked so high in the poll. It would be controversial for sure if the Cards were jumped by a two loss ACC champion. Now if the ACC champion has one loss, they would get the nod over the Cards.

The Big 10 has only two teams that will have a chance in my opinion and it's a strong possibility both would make it. Looking at the schedules, I don't see either OSU or Michigan losing a game until they play that last game. The loser of that game, especially if it's close will have a strong argument to get in over the Cards.

Baylor is the only Big 12 team that can make the playoff. WVU is currently undefeated but I don't see that lasting. Baylor has a couple of tough games including a road game against Oklahoma. It would be interesting to see if a one loss Baylor team would make it over the Cards.

Washington is in the drivers seat in the Pac 12. They would be hard to pass up even with one loss. I think they're the only PAC 12 team that will avoid a 2nd loss.

Of course everything I've written here could be totally wrong. There are still teams with zero or one loss who I haven't mentioned who could win out and get a playoff spot over the Cards. Teams like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Utah, and Stanford. I think however the Cards chances will come down to three teams.

Ohio State
Michigan
Washington.

I predict Alabama and Clemson will be in. The winner of the OSU/Michigan game will be in. For Louisville to make it, Washington must have more than one loss. There's a chance they could be passed up if their one loss is the PAC 12 championship game. Say to a 2 or 3 loss team. I still believe it will come down to the OSU/Michigan game. If that's a 35-32 thriller both will get in and the Cards will be the last team on the outside looking in. I think this would be the case no matter how many games Houston may lose.

Everything has to fall into place for the Cards to make the playoff. The one thing that helps us more than anything is Lamar Jackson. If we're 11-1 he most likely wins the Heisman and that could get us over the top.
 
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There is so much football left to play, it's really impossible to figure out what the factors are. It's not that hard to imagine Ohio State losing to Wisconsin, then Ohio State beating Michigan. That's just for starters.

I believe, if Louisville takes care of its business the rest of the way, we will find a way into the Playoff. I just can't imagine that in a crazy, unpredictable sport like college football that it's all going to come down to Michigan or Ohio State for the last berth, with Louisville ending up at #5 and nothing else changing.
 
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Jaire Alexander is not a liability. He has 3 INT's and Duke will be smashed by 30+.
that accounts for 1 there are four others and 2 of them are currently injured.

you have your opinion, I have mine. we need to concentrate on Duke, I dont believe we can be an arrogant fanbase. We have to be humble, but hey, do it your way.
 
you have your opinion, I have mine. we need to concentrate on Duke, I dont believe we can be an arrogant fanbase. We have to be humble, but hey, do it your way.


If ONLY I had that much impact on how our team came out and played each week.

I am sure our team is concentrating on Duke. Don't sweat it man. You're giving yourself ulcers over something you have ZERO control over.

As fans we have the luxury of looking ahead to all the games on our schedule. Because ... we're FANS, and NOT players.
 
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Who is being arrogant? How is being confident that our 7th ranked team led by Lamar Jackson will at home beat a 3-3 Duke team by a lot of points? Are you going to be this "humble" when we play UK? Also, are you on the roster or are you just like me a fan? This we stuff does not include the actual players and coaches. You do know the difference?

This thread was for those interested in the Cards playoff chances. Those who don't want to anticipate the possibilities need not to respond. We don't need to be reminded that the Cards have to win to make any of this matter. That goes without saying. This Cards team is going to be big favorites in every game the rest of the way except for Houston. This is due to the awesome talent we have and the great coaching to go along with it. I'm sure they are humble and will take each game one at a time.

Fans on the other hand are free to think ahead.
 
I take it you don't believe none of the other teams can lose twice? Or you think a two loss team would get in over Louisville?

Here's what would realistically happen. If the ACC champ had 2 losses, and Louisville has 1, then the ACC just won't get a team into the playoffs. It will be the champs of the other 4 conferences.
 
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Here's what would realistically happen. If the ACC champ had 2 losses, and Louisville has 1, then the ACC just won't get a team into the playoffs. It will be the champs of the other 4 conferences.

But ... if the OTHER P5 conference champs had 2 losses .... how would the committee deal with a 1 loss Louisville?
 
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Here's what would realistically happen. If the ACC champ had 2 losses, and Louisville has 1, then the ACC just won't get a team into the playoffs. It will be the champs of the other 4 conferences.
Possible but a two loss Big 12 team would be hard to justify. The Big 12 doesn't have a championship game so a 10-2 Baylor or 10-2 Oklahoma over a 11-1 Louisville would be very controversial. However, would a two loss Clemson team makes the Cards loss to them less impressive?
 
But ... if the OTHER P5 conference champs had 2 losses .... how would the committee deal with a 1 loss Louisville?

Well, the committee gives precedence to conference champs. This is already established. Even with two losses, it's going to be hard to get an "at large" team in over a conference champ. If the ACC champ is Clemson at 13-0/12-1, and another P5 champ has 2 losses, then Louisville might be able to get in. If the ACC champ is a 2-loss team like Miami or Virginia Tech, then Louisville won't get in over another 2-loss P5 champ. Keep in mind, it's very likely that Louisville might not even win the division, much less the conference, so you have that going up against a P5 conference champ.
 
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Possible but a two loss Big 12 team would be hard to justify. The Big 12 doesn't have a championship game so a 10-2 Baylor or 10-2 Oklahoma over a 11-1 Louisville would be very controversial. However, would a two loss Clemson team makes the Cards loss to them less impressive?

It wouldn't actually be that controversial. Again, you have to consider that the likely scenario would be a 2-loss P5 champ vs. a 1-loss team that didn't win either the division or the conference. Which sort of goes to your last point. If the ACC champ (be it Clemson or whoever) has 2 losses, then it won't be that controversial if a 1 loss team from the ACC gets left out.
 
Washington State is kicking Stanford's ass on the road exposing them as a totally over ranked team. USC beat a ranked Colorado and UCLA is losing to Arizona State. The PAC 12 is all over the place. I can't see its champion having less than 2 losses. Washington is the best bet but they still haven't beaten anybody worth a damn. Oregon has the worse defense in the country and Stanford will be lucky if they don't lose more than 4 games.

I still believe it's the OSU/Michigan scenario that may ultimately cost the Cards.
 
Well, the committee gives precedence to conference champs. This is already established. Even with two losses, it's going to be hard to get an "at large" team in over a conference champ. If the ACC champ is Clemson at 13-0/12-1, and another P5 champ has 2 losses, then Louisville might be able to get in. If the ACC champ is a 2-loss team like Miami or Virginia Tech, then Louisville won't get in over another 2-loss P5 champ. Keep in mind, it's very likely that Louisville might not even win the division, much less the conference, so you have that going up against a P5 conference champ.
I totally agree if the ACC champ is a two loss team the Cards will be left out. What's helping Louisville right now is that almost win at Clemson, but if Clemson loses the ACC championship game to a two loss team then that would hurt the Cards chances for sure. It would be hard to put in a ACC team that didn't win the division much less win the conference. No, Clemson has to be 13-0. That would make the Cards game against them continue to be relevant in the minds of the committee. I think most would like to see that rematch.
 
That's the problem. It doesn't look like Washington will really have to beat anybody that's worth a damn.
True, but they have tricky road games at Utah and Cal. I watched a lot of their game today against Oregon and it was some of the worse defense I've ever seen. They also have a game against USC who may be coming around.
 
True, but they have tricky road games at Utah and Cal. I watched a lot of their game today against Oregon and it was some of the worse defense I've ever seen. They also have a game against USC who may be coming around.

Utah and Arizona St are tough games. Cal isn't. Cal is 2-3 so far, and USC is 3-3. Both are average teams. Unless Washington just does a faceplant, I don't see them losing 2 games.
 
Yeah they are.

No they aren't.

No really I am not on the committee and neither are you.

The playoff has not been around long enough for anyone to be sure of the formula.

Snubbing a non "blue-blood" is not out of the possibility.

If Michigan or tOSU lose one game and Washington does too, the 25 Washington fans are going to be mad when they get passed over.
 
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No they aren't.

No really I am not on the committee and neither are you.

The playoff has not been around long enough for anyone to be sure of the formula.

Snubbing a non "blue-blood" is not out of the possibility.

If Michigan or tOSU lose one game and Washington does too, the 25 Washington fans are going to be mad when they get passed over.

Yeah, we can be sure of the formula in this case. The committee has plainly said they give precedence to conference champs. A 12-1 P5 champ is getting in over an 11-1 non-champ. 11-1 Michigan won't jump 12-1 Washington. You would be looking at the same scenario, a Michigan team the didn't win its conference or its division, vs. Washington as Pac-12 champs. You can argue all day, but the committee isn't picking Michigan over Washington in that scenario.
 
Utah and Arizona St are tough games. Cal isn't. Cal is 2-3 so far, and USC is 3-3. Both are average teams. Unless Washington just does a faceplant, I don't see them losing 2 games.
Cal is a offensive monster, especially at home. Davis Webb throws for 400 yards a game. But look out for Washington State. They look very good tonight against Stanford. They get Washington at home to end the regular season. That game will be a shoot-out.
 
Yeah, we can be sure of the formula in this case. The committee has plainly said they give precedence to conference champs. A 12-1 P5 champ is getting in over an 11-1 non-champ. 11-1 Michigan won't jump 12-1 Washington. You would be looking at the same scenario, a Michigan team the didn't win its conference or its division, vs. Washington as Pac-12 champs. You can argue all day, but the committee isn't picking Michigan over Washington in that scenario.
I'm not so sure. That has been the normal way of thinking but I really don't think a conference title means as much in this four team playoff. Let's take Alabama for example. Say they lose to Texas A&M and don't win their division. A&M then loses the SEC championship to a two loss Tennessee. Do you think a 12-1 Washington gets in over a 11-1 Alabama?
 
I'm not so sure. That has been the normal way of thinking but I really don't think a conference title means as much in this four team playoff. Let's take Alabama for example. Say they lose to Texas A&M and don't win their division. A&M then loses the SEC championship to a two loss Tennessee. Do you think a 12-1 Washington gets in over a 11-1 Alabama?

No, a conference title does mean that much in the playoffs. I'm not just making this up out of thin air. The committee has specifically said that when it comes down to a close decision, they favor the conference champions. Again, this is not me making this up. This is something the committee (specifically Jeff Long) has said.

To your question, yes 12-1 Washington gets in over 11-1 Alabama. You have to remember, this scenario is the entire reason we have a playoff in the first place. That's because there was so much outcry back in 2011 when Alabama made the BCS game ahead of Oklahoma St, even though Alabama didn't win its conference or its division. The entire reason of having a playoff was to avoid situations like that.

Cal is a offensive monster, especially at home. Davis Webb throws for 400 yards a game. But look out for Washington State. They look very good tonight against Stanford. They get Washington at home to end the regular season. That game will be a shoot-out.

Cal is #58 in points per game (31.8) vs. Washington at #6 (45.4). On defense, Washington is #6 in ppg (12.8), vs. Cal at #117 (38.6). I feel pretty good about Washington in that game.
 
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...I hate to tell you, but the committee puts way more precedence on conference championships than you realize.
Still clueless, but he comes back anyway...

Conference championship is one of the tie-breakers used by the selection committee AFTER it has determined that two teams are "comparable". In practice, that means if an 11-1 Louisville is judged to be better than a one-loss Washington, it doesn't consider whether Washington won the Pac-12. Simply put, the committee didn't view the two teams as comparable in the first place.

Bottom line...they want the four best teams, period. Only when #4 and #5 are hard to determine do they need the cover of a tie-breaker. Get your facts straight...

"When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)..."
LINK
 
BTW, some people get misquoted on these points, and some just can't read English...
 
Correct. Zero, unless Clemson loses two
I'm new to this forum , but is cardlaw a closet U.K. fan or just a UL hater. I have not read one positive post from him regarding Louisville. Like I said I am new here.
 
Here's what would realistically happen. If the ACC champ had 2 losses, and Louisville has 1, then the ACC just won't get a team into the playoffs. It will be the champs of the other 4 conferences.

Totally disagree, because it's not about the conference championship. It's about the 4 best teams. If those 2 loss teams prove to be better then so be it, but I doubt it.

The biggest problem for U of L is OSU/Michigan. Those two teams leave little doubt when they win games. I can see both those teams in the playoffs.
 
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Yeah, we can be sure of the formula in this case.

No doubt. The playoffs have existed for a whopping 3 years, and there's no way the committee would ever deviate and create some controversy with a political move that would screw over a non blue blood program.

There will never be any snubs and politics will never come in to play we can be sure the formula because this has been around for soooooooooo long!

There are way too many scenarios to know the playoff in early October.

I sense a non power like Washington would be very vulnerable if they lost a game, especially if that loss came against a fringe T25 team, or worse.

There will be apprehension from the powers that be if they don't run the table and I know you've got this whole thing figured out since it's existed for a whopping 3 years but politics plays a big role in this sport and they could get shut out by a one-loss power program like tOSU that had a tough loss to a T5 team but failed to win their league.

To say they are a "lock" if they go 12-1 seems premature. I do admit, saying they are out of they go 12-1 is also premature. I just think they'd be very vulnerable to miss the cut with one loss.
 
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I'm new to this forum , but is cardlaw a closet U.K. fan or just a UL hater. I have not read one positive post from him regarding Louisville. Like I said I am new here.

He's an Alabama fan. He used to pull for UofL but the hiring of Pitino and Petrino cut against his ethics and turned him into an enemy of Louisville athletics.

He's quite the contrarian to the rah rah types. I think there have been some heated arguments around here that has put him in the no turning back corner and now 90% of his posts consist of trolling Louisville, the other 10% reference Alabama.

It's not the type of behavior you'd expect from a grown man but this is what Card Law does.

It is possible he has naked pictures of the mods because his posts that break board rules do not get deleted, and he does not get banned. Many of the threads he participates do get locked though.
 
I know many Cards fans have put a lot of emphasis on the Houston game for our chances to make the playoff. I'm here to tell them that only losing to the Cougars should be a concern. The Houston loss to Navy doesn't change the reality of what it will take for the Cards to make the playoff. The Cards don't need to impress the polls or at least one guy on the playoff committee. We are already receiving tons of respect by the media as a team that is worthy of playing in the playoff. Most if not all were picking us to beat Houston anyway, so it wasn't like the Cougars were another Clemson.

Strength of schedule is not going to be a factor. Mostly due to the unbelievable play of Lamar Jackson, the Cards have passed the eye test. Many in the media have even said the Cards would beat Clemson on a neutral field and are one of a handful of teams that would give Alabama fits. None of this changed now that Houston lost to Navy. The Cards playoff chances are the same now as they were before Houston lost today.

As I see it, the Cards should have taken care of business when the first BCS polls come out. I'm not sure if it's called BCS but it's the poll that ultimately decides the four teams in the playoff. I suspect the Cards will at least be in the top 6, depending on who loses by then. They could be higher say if Texas A&M loses to Alabama. If the Cards continue to win, even over a one loss Houston team, they will stay high in the poll. To make the playoff we simply need some power 5 teams to lose. I've looked at all the teams involved and here is how I see it.

I think even if Alabama has a loss, they will be in the playoff if they win the SEC championship. Same thing with Texas A&M and Tennessee. Any of those teams win the SEC and have one loss will be in.

Clemson is in unless they lose twice, including the ACC championship, If the ACC champion let's say Miami or Virginia Tech have two losses, I can't see them making it over a one loss Cards team. This because the Cards would be ranked so high in the poll. It would be controversial for sure if the Cards were jumped by a two loss ACC champion. Now if the ACC champion has one loss, they would get the nod over the Cards.

The Big 10 has only two teams that will have a chance in my opinion and it's a strong possibility both would make it. Looking at the schedules, I don't see either OSU or Michigan losing a game until they play that last game. The loser of that game, especially if it's close will have a strong argument to get in over the Cards.

Baylor is the only Big 12 team that can make the playoff. WVU is currently undefeated but I don't see that lasting. Baylor has a couple of tough games including a road game against Oklahoma. It would be interesting to see if a one loss Baylor team would make it over the Cards.

Washington is in the drivers seat in the Pac 12. They would be hard to pass up even with one loss. I think they're the only PAC 12 team that will avoid a 2nd loss.

Of course everything I've written here could be totally wrong. There are still teams with zero or one loss who I haven't mentioned who could win out and get a playoff spot over the Cards. Teams like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Utah, and Stanford. I think however the Cards chances will come down to three teams.

Ohio State
Michigan
Washington.

I predict Alabama and Clemson will be in. The winner of the OSU/Michigan game will be in. For Louisville to make it, Washington must have more than one loss. There's a chance they could be passed up if their one loss is the PAC 12 championship game. Say to a 2 or 3 loss team. I still believe it will come down to the OSU/Michigan game. If that's a 35-32 thriller both will get in and the Cards will be the last team on the outside looking in. I think this would be the case no matter how many games Houston may lose.

Everything has to fall into place for the Cards to make the playoff. The one thing that helps us more than anything is Lamar Jackson. If we're 11-1 he most likely wins the Heisman and that could get us over the top.
ohio state will lose to wisconsin this coming weekend
 
Here's what would realistically happen. If the ACC champ had 2 losses, and Louisville has 1, then the ACC just won't get a team into the playoffs. It will be the champs of the other 4 conferences.

The Big XII is pretty much out of it right now...look at Baylor OOC schedule..it is pretty bad and really right now the favorite to win the Big XII is still 2 loss Oklahoma.
 
I'm new to this forum , but is cardlaw a closet U.K. fan or just a UL hater. I have not read one positive post from him regarding Louisville. Like I said I am new here.


You wont read one positive post from cradlaw ( not a misspelling )

He tried to crap on the Cards FSU win, yet ignored bamma getting beat by Ole Miss,
who lost to Memphis last season. Only way to get excorcise him, is for bamma
to lose 3 times. We all know that bamma would get in the playoffs with 2 losses.

By the way, its UofL, not UL.
 
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