Louisville's playoff chances

[topdecktiger]

Still clueless, but he comes back anyway...

Conference championship is one of the tie-breakers used by the selection committee AFTER it has determined that two teams are "comparable". In practice, that means if an 11-1 Louisville is judged to be better than a one-loss Washington, it doesn't consider whether Washington won the Pac-12. Simply put, the committee didn't view the two teams as comparable in the first place.

Bottom line...they want the four best teams, period. Only when #4 and #5 are hard to determine do they need the cover of a tie-breaker. Get your facts straight...

"When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)..."

LINK

I have all my facts straight. You just proved my point for me. These teams are all going to be "comparable." If you have 12-1 Washington vs. 11-1 Michigan, for example, those teams are going to be "comparable," and then it comes down to "tie breakers," hence the conference championship.

No doubt. The playoffs have existed for a whopping 3 years, and there's no way the committee would ever deviate and create some controversy with a political move that would screw over a non blue blood program.

There will never be any snubs and politics will never come in to play we can be sure the formula because this has been around for soooooooooo long!

There are way too many scenarios to know the playoff in early October.

I sense a non power like Washington would be very vulnerable if they lost a game, especially if that loss came against a fringe T25 team, or worse.

There will be apprehension from the powers that be if they don't run the table and I know you've got this whole thing figured out since it's existed for a whopping 3 years but politics plays a big role in this sport and they could get shut out by a one-loss power program like tOSU that had a tough loss to a T5 team but failed to win their league.

To say they are a "lock" if they go 12-1 seems premature. I do admit, saying they are out of they go 12-1 is also premature. I just think they'd be very vulnerable to miss the cut with one loss.

You started this whole argument out saying definitively that Washington was out if they lose a game. Then, you want to turn around and pull the "you don't know what the committee will do" card. You can't have it both ways. If you are going to say 1 loss knocks out Washington, then you have no justification that someone like Michigan is ok with one loss. For a school like Michigan, 1 loss much more difficult to overcome. That's because that 1 loss probably prevents them from adding things like a conference championship to their resume, whereas Washington probably can still win the conference with 1 loss.

 

[tluck28]

Guys even if we don't make the playoffs we will get a bcs bowl and a very high ranking to start next season and right back next year. As long as Bobby is here ,we will be in the hunt every year. It feels damn good to say that. Just think, every fall from now on we will be having these types of conversations which is so freaking awesome. We have a top five coach and I hope Jurich gives him a raise at the end of the season.

 

[beasleythecard]

Guys even if we don't make the playoffs we will get a bcs bowl and a very high ranking to start next season and right back next year. As long as Bobby is here ,we will be in the hunt every year. It feels damn good to say that. Just think, every fall from now on we will be having these types of conversations which is so freaking awesome. We have a top five coach and I hope Jurich gives him a raise at the end of the season.

this is so much better than the kragthorpe days and the cooper days.
And yes Bobby deserves a raise. So does his staff

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I have all my facts straight. You just proved my point for me. These teams are all going to be "comparable." If you have 12-1 Washington vs. 11-1 Michigan, for example, those teams are going to be "comparable," and then it comes down to "tie breakers," hence the conference championship.



You started this whole argument .

I didn't start an argument I shared an opinion.

And the post you just quoted, at the very end of it I said I was premature to say what I said in terms of being definitive.

If you're going to quote post me at least take your time to read my entire post or hire somebody to help explain what my posts mean.

 

[REDFISTFURY3]

Guys even if we don't make the playoffs we will get a bcs bowl and a very high ranking to start next season and right back next year. As long as Bobby is here ,we will be in the hunt every year. It feels damn good to say that. Just think, every fall from now on we will be having these types of conversations which is so freaking awesome. We have a top five coach and I hope Jurich gives him a raise at the end of the season.

No such thing as the BCS anymore1

 

[zipp]

I have all my facts straight. You just proved my point for me. These teams are all going to be "comparable." If you have 12-1 Washington vs. 11-1 Michigan, for example, those teams are going to be "comparable," and then it comes down to "tie breakers," hence the conference championship...

There's no prescribed process for determining which teams are "comparable", only how to resolve that situation when it happens. 12-1 Washington and 11-1 Michigan aren't comparable by definition, only if the committee decides that they are. And only THEN would they use a conference championship tie-breaker.

If those two teams are already perceived or judged to be different--however they decide that--a tie-breaker never enters the picture. That's what the info says is the process; anything else is pure fabrication. They want the four best teams and to never have to use tie-breakers...

 

[zipp]

Totally disagree, because it's not about the conference championship. It's about the 4 best teams. If those 2 loss teams prove to be better then so be it, but I doubt it.

The biggest problem for U of L is OSU/Michigan. Those two teams leave little doubt when they win games. I can see both those teams in the playoffs.

This guy gets it (along with some others...)

IMO our biggest issue going forward is if Michigan and Washington keep "blowing out" teams, esp. Michigan because they're perceived as playing legit competition. Because blowing out teams is about all we can do at this point as well. Style points matter a lot more now, and we don't want other schools getting them.

The conference champ thing doesn't matter if we can otherwise distance ourselves from the competition in the eyes of the committee-in essence, people like Herbstreit. I said it in another thread last nite, Herbie said he sees Louisville, Michigan, and Washington as a coin flip for #4. And those other two schools haven't lost a game yet...

 

[tluck28]

No such thing as the BCS anymore1

News years day bowl. Sorry buddy

 

[REDFISTFURY3]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Bowl Date Location Matchup
Peach Bowl Dec. 31 Atlanta, Ga. (1) Alabama vs. (4) Washington
Fiesta Bowl Dec. 31 Glendale, Ariz. (2) Clemson vs. (3) Ohio State
Louisville is also hurt by Houston's loss Saturday because now a victory next month over the Cougars would be devalued.

NEW YEAR'S SIX BOWL PROJECTIONS
Bowl Date Location Matchup
Sugar Bowl Jan. 2 New Orleans, La. Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)
Rose Bowl Jan. 2 Pasadena, Calif. Michigan (Big Ten) vs. Stanford (Pac-12)
Cotton Bowl Jan. 2 Arlington, Tex. Houston (At-large) vs. Tennessee (At-large)
Orange Bowl Dec. 30 Miami, Fla. Louisville (ACC) vs. Wisconsin



SPONSORED BY TOYOTA

 

[ajgcardman]

Yeah they are. I hate to tell you, but the committee puts way more precedence on conference championships than you realize.

You act like no precedent exists in CFB of a non-champ making it in over a conf champ. Remember LSU vs Alabama? I also recall a Nebraska team playing for the BCS title after losing their last game. I know, BCS, not CFB Playoff, but talking precedence is stupid about something with a 2-yr history.

Louisville still has a chance for 2 reasons:

1) they have the best player in CFB that the TV audience wants to see most, and

2) they're currently one of the nation's best 4 teams.

But there's a long way until the selection occurs, and lots can happen. Louisville needs help, but they aren't out yet, not by a long shot.

 

[topdecktiger]

I didn't start an argument I shared an opinion.

And the post you just quoted, at the very end of it I said I was premature to say what I said in terms of being definitive.

If you're going to quote post me at least take your time to read my entire post or hire somebody to help explain what my posts mean.

You said:

If Washington goes 12-1, they aren't in the playoffs.

Then you said:

No really I am not on the committee and neither are you.

You started out saying that Washington would not make the playoffs unless they went undefeated. I just posted the quote. Then, you said, "I am not on the committee and neither are you."

There's no prescribed process for determining which teams are "comparable", only how to resolve that situation when it happens. 12-1 Washington and 11-1 Michigan aren't comparable by definition, only if the committee decides that they are. And only THEN would they use a conference championship tie-breaker.

If those two teams are already perceived or judged to be different--however they decide that--a tie-breaker never enters the picture. That's what the info says is the process; anything else is pure fabrication. They want the four best teams and to never have to use tie-breakers...

And that's the entire problem with your argument. These teams, such as Michigan and Washington, haven't separated themselves. There just isn't anything that the committee is going to be able to point to and say that 11-1 Michigan is definitively better than 12-1 Washington. If we were talking about 11-1 Michigan vs. 11-1 Boise St, then that might not be the case, but there simply isn't going to be enough of a difference between two P5 teams. You can argue with me all you want.....and then at the end of the season I will be right.

You act like no precedent exists in CFB of a non-champ making it in over a conf champ. Remember LSU vs Alabama? I also recall a Nebraska team playing for the BCS title after losing their last game. I know, BCS, not CFB Playoff, but talking precedence is stupid about something with a 2-yr history.

Louisville still has a chance for 2 reasons:

1) they have the best player in CFB that the TV audience wants to see most, and

2) they're currently one of the nation's best 4 teams.

But there's a long way until the selection occurs, and lots can happen. Louisville needs help, but they aren't out yet, not by a long shot.

If you paid attention, you would notice I mentioned 2011 Alabama in a previous post. That 2011 Alabama/LSU game is the exact reason the CFP was invented in the first place, to avoid a situation where a team like Alabama got in over a team like Oklahoma St.

I've never said Louisville is out of the playoffs. You are not paying attention to what I'm actually saying because you are too invested in your team. Louisville has a shot at the playoffs, just not the way the OP described. The OP was just trying to invent scenarios to convince himself.

 

[CardLaw]

He's an Alabama fan. He used to pull for UofL but the hiring of Pitino and Petrino cut against his ethics and turned him into an enemy of Louisville athletics.

Not an enemy. Indifferent

He's quite the contrarian to the rah rah types.

Very True.

I think there have been some heated arguments around here that has put him in the no turning back corner and now 90% of his posts consist of trolling Louisville, the other 10% reference Alabama.

It's not the type of behavior you'd expect from a grown man but this is what Card Law does.

This one is kind of funny given the next quote from you. But, no. The "no turning back" is based on the aforementioned hires. I don't actually care enough about anyone on here to let them influence my decisions about anything.

It is possible he has naked pictures of the mods because his posts that break board rules do not get deleted, and he does not get banned. Many of the threads he participates do get locked though.

You mean like calling someone childish as you just did? Or Louisvillians calling me a "turd"? Can you find posts such as yours or his from me? Didn't think so. Do you have naked pics of the mods?

 

[CardLaw]

You wont read one positive post from cradlaw ( not a misspelling )

He tried to crap on the Cards FSU win, yet ignored bamma getting beat by Ole Miss,
who lost to Memphis last season.

Well, are we arguing about THIS year, or LAST year? We know how last year turned out so I don't think who-lost-to-who has much relevance right now. Maybe we should argue about 2014 when Ohio State lost to Va. Tech who lost to ECU the very next week? It doesn't change the basic point that a division runner up is not getting into the playoff over a one loss P5 conference champ.

 

[Section 12 Jerk]

And that's the entire problem with your argument. These teams, such as Michigan and Washington, haven't separated themselves. There just isn't anything that the committee is going to be able to point to and say that 11-1 Michigan is definitively better than 12-1 Washington. If we were talking about 11-1 Michigan vs. 11-1 Boise St, then that might not be the case, but there simply isn't going to be enough of a difference between two P5 teams. You can argue with me all you want.....and then at the end of the season I will be right.

You must not be following Pac 12 football. If Michigan has one loss, it will more than likely be to an undefeated Ohio St. If Washington has one loss, it will be to a Pac 12 team, none of which are in the same stratosphere as Ohio St. They also have one common opponent, Rutgers. I'll let you look those scores up. You're getting into CardLaw territory with your analysis skills. I like it.

 

[zipp]

...And that's the entire problem with your argument. These teams, such as Michigan and Washington, haven't separated themselves. There just isn't anything that the committee is going to be able to point to and say that 11-1 Michigan is definitively better than 12-1 Washington. If we were talking about 11-1 Michigan vs. 11-1 Boise St, then that might not be the case, but there simply isn't going to be enough of a difference between two P5 teams. You can argue with me all you want.....and then at the end of the season I will be right...

That would simply be your opinion--that two teams under discussion haven't separated themselves--and neither your opinion nor mine matters. If a majority of the selection committee disagrees with you, guess what? The team they like gets chosen, and the conference champion tie-breaker you're hellbent on applying never gets applied.

That's not my POV, that's how the process works according to their website and any informed person who comments on that process. Again, their stated priority is to get the four best teams. No wording in there about conference champions. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, a conference champion will be selected. Seldom is everything else equal...

 

[zipp]

You must not be following Pac 12 football. If Michigan has one loss, it will more than likely be to an undefeated Ohio St. If Washington has one loss, it will be to a Pac 12 team, none of which are in the same stratosphere as Ohio St. They also have one common opponent, Rutgers. I'll let you look those scores up...

Perfect example, and exactly how the process will work to Michigan's advantage. U-dub will be SOL and this 'tiger' clown proven to be an idiot again...

 

[bill114]

Washington is the one P5 team that can't afford a loss. They have a terrible non-con (Rutgers, Idaho, FCS Portland State), and if they lose it's not going to be a good loss. Best team left on their schedule is @Utah, a fringe top 25 team. They may only have beaten one ranked team by the end of the year too.

 

[CardLaw]

Perfect example, and exactly how the process will work to Michigan's advantage. U-dub will be SOL and this 'tiger' clown proven to be an idiot again...

Since according to Kerry Rhodes I am a "Louisville hater", let me just go ahead and make myself a "universal hater".

Let's assume there will be four or more 0/1 loss P5 conference champions. In that case, the following schools could be one loss division losers:

Alabama
Texas A&M
Michigan
Ohio State
Louisville
(Others I may have overlooked)

None of them - NOT ONE OF THEM - will make the playoffs. Period.

 

[zipp]

...Let's assume there will be four or more 0/1 loss P5 conference champions. In that case, the following schools could be one loss division losers:

Alabama
Texas A&M
Michigan
Ohio State
Louisville
(Others I may have overlooked)

None of them - NOT ONE OF THEM - will make the playoffs. Period.

Jerk's example was for a one-loss Washington team competing for the 4th playoff spot. I can't imagine any of the teams on the above list with one loss not beating out Washington for that spot in the minds of the committee. Washington's schedule sucks out loud, and it looked even worse after this past weekend.

The only mitigating factor might be if Washington blows out everyone on their schedule and these other teams are less impressive in their victories. And I can't see that happening for most of these teams...

 

[Morgantown Card]

Everything has to fall into place for the Cards to make the playoff. The one thing that helps us more than anything is Lamar Jackson. If we're 11-1 he most likely wins the Heisman and that could get us over the top.

I just posted this in another thread - but is the ACC really any better than mid-2000's Big East? We're only 5 games in, and the rest of the conference schedule just sucks. The Cards will be favored in every game by 20 points or more. I am really pissed at Houston for shitting the bed against Navy, a win at their place in late November would have.

The Cards can go 11-1 with the only loss being a heartbreaker on the road to possibly the best team in NCAAF, and the SoS is going to suck.

 

[Section 12 Jerk]

I just posted this in another thread - but is the ACC really any better than mid-2000's Big East? We're only 5 games in, and the rest of the conference schedule just sucks. The Cards will be favored in every game by 20 points or more. I am really pissed at Houston for shitting the bed against Navy, a win at their place in late November would have.

The Cards can go 11-1 with the only loss being a heartbreaker on the road to possibly the best team in NCAAF, and the SoS is going to suck.

Maybin just had a great segment at the beginning of the 11 o'clock hour of his show talking about Louisville fans with trust issues. You should give it a listen when the podcast gets posted, It'll be good for you.

 

[tluck28]

I just posted this in another thread - but is the ACC really any better than mid-2000's Big East? We're only 5 games in, and the rest of the conference schedule just sucks. The Cards will be favored in every game by 20 points or more. I am really pissed at Houston for shitting the bed against Navy, a win at their place in late November would have.

The Cards can go 11-1 with the only loss being a heartbreaker on the road to possibly the best team in NCAAF, and the SoS is going to suck.

Louisville is just that damn good.

 

[tluck28]

Louisville is just that damn good.

Imagine playing Washington's schedule.

 

[topdecktiger]

You must not be following Pac 12 football. If Michigan has one loss, it will more than likely be to an undefeated Ohio St. If Washington has one loss, it will be to a Pac 12 team, none of which are in the same stratosphere as Ohio St. They also have one common opponent, Rutgers. I'll let you look those scores up. You're getting into CardLaw territory with your analysis skills. I like it.

My analytical skills are fine. That's because I'm looking at it objectively, unlike you. We already have examples of this. Last year, Oklahoma was the #4 team at 11-1. They got in over both 12-1 Iowa and 11-1 Ohio St. Both of those teams' only loss came to the same opponent--Michigan St, who made the playoffs. For a non-champ to jump a P5 champ, there is going to have to be a huge disparity. That isn't going to exist with at 12-1 Washington team.

That would simply be your opinion--that two teams under discussion haven't separated themselves--and neither your opinion nor mine matters. If a majority of the selection committee disagrees with you, guess what? The team they like gets chosen, and the conference champion tie-breaker you're hellbent on applying never gets applied.

That's not my POV, that's how the process works according to their website and any informed person who comments on that process. Again, their stated priority is to get the four best teams. No wording in there about conference champions. ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL, a conference champion will be selected. Seldom is everything else equal...

ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL is the problem. There isn't enough of a dramatic difference between the teams under this scenario. And yes, most of the time everything else is equal, as I mentioned earlier.

Jerk's example was for a one-loss Washington team competing for the 4th playoff spot. I can't imagine any of the teams on the above list with one loss not beating out Washington for that spot in the minds of the committee. Washington's schedule sucks out loud, and it looked even worse after this past weekend.

The only mitigating factor might be if Washington blows out everyone on their schedule and these other teams are less impressive in their victories. And I can't see that happening for most of these teams...

"I can't imagine any of the teams on the above list with one loss not beating out Washington for that spot in the minds of the committee." Doesn't matter if you can imagine it or not. The committee doesn't look at it the same way as you. That's the problem.

 

[zipp]

...There isn't enough of a dramatic difference between the teams under this scenario...

Your opinion only, you're not on the committee, which means it matters about as much as you posting here...

 

[PushupMan]

Eight spots in the first two CFPs so far ... 8 P5 conference champions taking those spots. The precedent is CLEAR for anyone who is not in denial. The only chance Louisville has to be in consideration at 11-1 is if 2 or more P5 conference champions have at least two losses.

Go NC State!

 

[zipp]

I just posted this in another thread - but is the ACC really any better than mid-2000's Big East? We're only 5 games in, and the rest of the conference schedule just sucks. The Cards will be favored in every game by 20 points or more...

Way off the mark, Morgan... I was just looking at this site (Massey) last nite, which I really like as it's a composite of a number of national polls. In this composite, the ACC has 4 of the Top 12 and 5 of the Top 17 teams. That's one more than either the SEC or the Big Ten.

That's at the top... At the bottom in this composite, we have 7 teams ranked 50 or lower from the Big Ten, and 5 each from the SEC and ACC. The Big Ten has 3 teams ranked below 90.

Watch those perceptions esp. if they come from talking heads!!...

 

[zipp]

Eight spots in the first two CFPs so far ... 8 P5 conference champions taking those spots. The precedent is CLEAR for anyone who is not in denial. The only chance Louisville has to be in consideration at 11-1 is if 2 or more P5 conference champions have at least two losses.

Go NC State!

That's true for the Big Ten and SEC. Maybe not for Pac-12, and likely not for the Big XII.

The "precedent" argument SOUNDS good until you consider that there are two data points, technically speaking, for the CFP selection process. And if you go back a few more years when there were just the two best teams selected, you had two SEC teams selected over EVERY OTHER conference champion.

These guys will pick the teams they want, and hang the facts and stats on the narrative afterward.

Yep, we're Pack fans this weekend...

 

[Morgantown Card]

Maybin just had a great segment at the beginning of the 11 o'clock hour of his show talking about Louisville fans with trust issues. You should give it a listen when the podcast gets posted, It'll be good for you.

What do you mean by trust issues? I'm just looking at the remainder of the conference schedule and from where I sit it appears we need to mercilessly smash every one of these SOB's or 11-1 won't mean much. Beating Duke, VA, NCS, BC, & WF by 10 points isn't going to impress anybody (I'll take a 1 point win at Houson and love it however). Don't get me wrong - I'm thrilled to see the Cards in the ACC for P5 affiliation - but this year's conference schedule isn't some sort of gauntlet. As good as the Cards are, it makes the Clemson loss even a harder pill to swallow.

It's amazing how greedy I have become - I was expecting 9-3 and another Music City-type bowl going into this season!

Also - I wonder if Navy beating Houston has made the folks at Texas and LSU realize that Tom Herman is a human being, not a super hero whose magical powers makes his team unbeatable.

 

[Section 12 Jerk]

What do you mean by trust issues? I'm just looking at the remainder of the conference schedule and from where I sit it appears we need to mercilessly smash every one of these SOB's or 11-1 won't mean much. Beating Duke, VA, NCS, BC, & WF by 10 points isn't going to impress anybody (I'll take a 1 point win at Houson and love it however). Don't get me wrong - I'm thrilled to see the Cards in the ACC for P5 affiliation - but this year's conference schedule isn't some sort of gauntlet. As good as the Cards are, it makes the Clemson loss even a harder pill to swallow.

It's amazing how greedy I have become - I was expecting 9-3 and another Music City-type bowl going into this season!

Also - I wonder if Navy beating Houston has made the folks at Texas and LSU realize that Tom Herman is a human being, not a super hero whose magical powers makes his team unbeatable.

http://espnlouisville.com/common/page.php?id=131

It's today's show, the Hour 2 segment, starts around the 2:00 mark. It's spot on, listen to it.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Way off the mark, Morgan... I was just looking at this site (Massey) last nite, which I really like as it's a composite of a number of national polls. In this composite, the ACC has 4 of the Top 12 and 5 of the Top 17 teams. That's one more than either the SEC or the Big Ten.

That's at the top... At the bottom in this composite, we have 7 teams ranked 50 or lower from the Big Ten, and 5 each from the SEC and ACC. The Big Ten has 3 teams ranked below 90.

Watch those perceptions esp. if they come from talking heads!!...

Re-read my remarks - I was referring to the remaining conference schedule - Duke, VA, NCS, BC, Wake. Merely beating those teams will impress no one.

 

[Morgantown Card]

http://espnlouisville.com/common/page.php?id=131
It's today's show, the Hour 2 segment, starts around the 2:00 mark. It's spot on, listen to it.

Cool I will check it out and give my thoughts. I typically have Maybin on but didn't today of course.

 

[PushupMan]

That's true for the Big Ten and SEC. Maybe not for Pac-12, and likely not for the Big XII.

The "precedent" argument SOUNDS good until you consider that there are two data points, technically speaking, for the CFP selection process. And if you go back a few more years when there were just the two best teams selected, you had two SEC teams selected over EVERY OTHER conference champion.

These guys will pick the teams they want, and hang the facts and stats on the narrative afterward.

Yep, we're Pack fans this weekend...

Okay ... why did the 11-1 defending CFP champions not get in last year? Keep in mind that there is only one correct answer....

 

[zipp]

Okay ... why did the 11-1 defending CFP champions not get in last year? Keep in mind that there is only one correct answer....

The simplest answer which I know is correct is because the committee liked Oklahoma (#4) more than they liked Ohio State. The pertinent question is why did the committee like Oklahoma more? And I have no idea--I'm not on the committee.

But it's wrong to simply assume that because we don't know the answer, it's because Oklahoma was the Big XII conference champion. That's unless the committee is on record saying that was the reason. And even then, it doesn't mean that the committee wasn't following their prescribed selection process--that they saw Ohio State and Oklahoma as "comparable" teams, and that they used a conference champion tie-breaker.

Could also be that there was recency bias as Ohio State lost late in the season to the eventual conference champion a couple weeks later. These guys are prone to all kinds of biases, and they pick who they think are the four best teams...

 

[zipp]

Re-read my remarks - I was referring to the remaining conference schedule - Duke, VA, NCS, BC, Wake. Merely beating those teams will impress no one.

Didn't mean to offend (in my usual style...) I was replying to your question...

"...but is the ACC really any better than mid-2000's Big East?"​

That's a broader question re. conference strength. The ACC is as strong as any P5 conference anymore...

 

[topdecktiger]

Your opinion only, you're not on the committee, which means it matters about as much as you posting here...

And it's only your opinion also. If you're going to play the "that's only your opinion" card, then you can't try to make it sound like your opinion is right, and mine is wrong.

And even then, it doesn't mean that the committee wasn't following their prescribed selection process--that they saw Ohio State and Oklahoma as "comparable" teams, and that they used a conference champion tie-breaker.

Nobody has said the committee isn't following the selection process. 11-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Ohio St. are "comparable." Just like 12-1 Washington and 11-1 Michigan are "comparable." That's the whole point.

What you don't get is, for two teams with similar records not to be comparable, it's going to have to be some completely lopsided comparison, like a team from the SEC vs. a team from the MAC.

 

[zipp]

...Nobody has said the committee isn't following the selection process. 11-1 Oklahoma and 11-1 Ohio St. are "comparable." Just like 12-1 Washington and 11-1 Michigan are "comparable." That's the whole point.

What you don't get is, for two teams with similar records not to be comparable, it's going to have to be some completely lopsided comparison, like a team from the SEC vs. a team from the MAC.

You saying they're "comparable" has nothing to do with what the committee decides. They're not comparable by definition, because their records are similar, because they're from strong conferences, or any other criteria you wanna assert that are NOT prescribed by the CFP selection process. That process appears to be intentionally vague so that they have the freedom to select what they think are the four best teams.

And when they're unsure--and only then--there are prescribed tie-breakers like conference champions. That's at the back end of the process, not the front. Your argument this time like so many other times is flawed...

 

[topdecktiger]

You saying they're "comparable" has nothing to do with what the committee decides. They're not comparable by definition, because their records are similar, because they're from strong conferences, or any other criteria you wanna assert that are NOT prescribed by the CFP selection process. That process appears to be intentionally vague so that they have the freedom to select what they think are the four best teams.

And when they're unsure--and only then--there are prescribed tie-breakers like conference champions. That's at the back end of the process, not the front. Your argument this time like so many other times is flawed...

Nope, my argument is sound. Looking at the past two years, the committee simply hasn't judged P5 teams with similar records to be demonstrably better or worse. Which is why when you have a 12-1 Washington vs. an 11-1 Michigan, they will be "comparable." You can argue all you want.....and then in December that's exactly what will happen.

 

[zipp]

Nope, my argument is sound. Looking at the past two years...

That's TWO data points. About the analysis I expected from you. Congrats...

 

[CardLaw]

That's TWO data points. About the analysis I expected from you. Congrats...

He is right. Two data points make a line; three a trend.

The problem you and other UL fans have is you believe UL is heads and shoulders better than Washington, Michigan, Alabama, God and everyone and everything else. The rest of the world doesn't see it that way. To everyone outside of Jefferson County, they see 12-1 Washington and 11-1 UL and see two fairly weak schedules and view them similarly. So, one was conference champion and the other was divisional loser and the distinction gets pretty easy to draw.

Louisville (and everyone else in a similar boat) will not make the playoffs as a division loser over a one-loss conference winner of a P5 conference. Not going to happen and I cannot think of a soul outside Jefferson County who thinks it will.