They are saying that the SEC and the B1G are going to split 58% of the revenue from the college football playoffs. The ACC and the Big 12 will split 38% and Notre Dame and the group of 5 will split 10%. I wonder if they are doing this to encourage the other teams they want in in the B1G and SEC to make a move. This is not good for college sports and ESPN is behind a lot of this.
How could this be
- Thread starter KozmasAgain
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I wonder why Notre Dame fell so low into the group of 5? The only way to stop this is to have teams outside the SEC and the B1G win the Championship.
The recent lawsuit filed by Clemson is further evidence the ACC will ultimately implode. It is all about the money, and the biggest question is whether UVA and UNC will join with FSU and Clemson in pursuit of separation, or stand with their fellow ACC members?
The SEC and the BIG10 must have its members decide if they want to sacrifice some of their own distribution with new members, something I suspect neither Clemson nor FSU can have assurance of at this time.
The SEC and the BIG10 must have its members decide if they want to sacrifice some of their own distribution with new members, something I suspect neither Clemson nor FSU can have assurance of at this time.
The next big moves set up for just after Feb 2025. That's when ESPN and the ACC must extend the media carriage option to 2036 ... or not.
FSU and Clemson (and other ACC members) will have a better idea of their incremental worth by then. And also probably a better reading on their get-out-of-jail costs.
I would expect that if FSU and Clemson are successful in getting out for peanuts, that the North Carolina Publics and the Virginia schools may be right behind.
ESPN and Fox will have to whisper to them just what their SEC and B1G deals would be worth.
If the option is not exercised by ESPN, then all the ACC schools will probably become free agents pretty quickly.
One Edit: ESPN (and the Courts) holds all the cards. ESPN can keep the ACC going or kill it. Or anything in between.
FSU and Clemson (and other ACC members) will have a better idea of their incremental worth by then. And also probably a better reading on their get-out-of-jail costs.
I would expect that if FSU and Clemson are successful in getting out for peanuts, that the North Carolina Publics and the Virginia schools may be right behind.
ESPN and Fox will have to whisper to them just what their SEC and B1G deals would be worth.
If the option is not exercised by ESPN, then all the ACC schools will probably become free agents pretty quickly.
One Edit: ESPN (and the Courts) holds all the cards. ESPN can keep the ACC going or kill it. Or anything in between.
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ESPN is not well financially. How long can they continue to keep doling out huge deals for broadcast rights?
ESPN seems OK. Disney is in awful trouble. But all cable and streamers have to figure their futures out.
espn is treading water at best. The days of exponential growth - which fueled all of the crazy money that they've thrown at conferences - are gone for a multitude of reasons. As we all know - TV revenue has driven all of the expansion - the B1G wants to be in the southeast market, the sec wanted into the Texas market, etc. With revenue projections being what they are currently - there doesn't appear to be the extra dollars to throw at a conference for picking up a new market - particularly if espn is already shelling out money to another conference for that same market.
What is more probable in this climate, is the hastening of the NFL model (AFC / NFC) with the top 48(+ or -) or so football programs, that espn would throw all of their money at - leaving all the programs on the outside looking in basically screwed. If that happens, past conference affiliations (looking at you - yuts) won't mean anything.
I do not see this ending well for UL; our history on favorable court rulings is not good. We all know that football revenue drives the decisions, but the real losers will be the non-revenue sports for all schools when the inter-conference travel starts to take affect.
All that is needed is 1 from Va, 1 from NC, and 1 from Kansas, eventually. Plus Clemson and FSU. They would like 1 from Az. That's 6 more. Plus the 34 they have. So 40 is the number. They get one more with Utah if they want it. And Colorado if they want it. That gets them to 42. Really that's everyone with any eyeball value to them.
Maybe but, I see the state legislatures of Virginia and North Carolina throwing a fit were only one of the schools from those states get in. If it's value play - which I think that it would be - Purdue, IU, Northwestern and Vandy are gone. Also - ND would be included. At the end of the day - I think it gets closer to 48 than 40 - that way they have eight / six team divisions.
They're not kicking anyone out. And ND has a contract all the way out to 2034 with NBC which pays very well. And they'll perish before they join a conference.
Yes Va and NC pols will gripe.
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Won’t be a conference in the traditional sense and ND admin won’t sit still and be left in the outside looking in. As regards kicking anyone out - all bets have been completely off since the first realignment. TV dictates and ESPN or whatever network ponies up the type of $ we’re talking about - will want the best - and those teams mentioned, ain’t it.
They want the most eyeballs. Not the best teams.
Those two typically go hand in hand. You think they’d lose the Nashville market if Vandy got relegated? The fact is - some “super conference” will have all the eyeballs anyway. In the same way that the NFL still gets great TV ratings in markets / states that don’t even have a team.
How big can a conference get without becoming unattractive to new interests? Anyone want to be part of a 20-22 team conference? Sure, the money might look good but the odds for competing at the top of the conference fall with each new team added.
One possible end-state outcome: In 6-10 years, there's a Major College Football League, consisting of 30-40 'super' teams allied with and associated with their respective namesake universities. Unions, Pay-for-Play. NIL. Players can play as long as they take 3 hours of academics. Even for 20 years. Affiliated with NFL teams. 90% of team/player revenue from TV/Streaming. Zero NCAA rules. Rules determined by the League.
A Major College Basketball League then may follow.
These are very extreme outcomes. But quite possible.
There may be a step or two between where we are now and that end-state.
What the laws will allow and how much money can be made will determine how far toward this point we go.
A Major College Basketball League then may follow.
These are very extreme outcomes. But quite possible.
There may be a step or two between where we are now and that end-state.
What the laws will allow and how much money can be made will determine how far toward this point we go.
The Big 12 said their priority targets from the ACC are Louisville, NCST and Miami in that order. If UNC, FSU, Clemson and Virginia go that leaves WF, VaTech, Duke, BC, Pitt and Ga Tech. I wonder what the other North Carolina schools are going to do? I know the department of education in North Carolina was going to pass a bill saying no North Carolina school could leave unless the other schools are invited to go with them. FSU and Clemson say they want to leave because of money and more opportunities to get in the playoffs. The best way to get in the playoffs is to stay in the ACC and win the conference.
I agree that the “super” conference is coming - though not sure how “super” it could be with Vandy, Rutgers & some of those others involved. If it does occur, there needs to be a promotion / relegation component to it.
If this does come to pass, I hope that they make football a stand alone sport and let the non-revenue sports go back to playing programs in their region. No reason in the world could possibly justify that much travel and missed class time for those student-athletes and, take away the ability from their families to see them play.
Ironic that the CST super conference article came out this week. If you e not seen it - the new model (promoted by some serious heavy hitters in sports) would create a system where there would be 70 permanent member schools - comprised of those schools that are currently P5. The teams would be divided into seven 10-team divisions, joined by an eighth division of teams that could be promoted from the second tier of G5 teams.
There would be no CFP committee. Instead, the postseason would be comprised of the eight division winners and eight wild cards (determined by record and tiebreakers). Non-football sports would stay in their current conference structure. The CST believes this model would bring more TV value and sustainability to CFB.
Pretty interesting proposal - that I think has some legs to it.
There would be no CFP committee. Instead, the postseason would be comprised of the eight division winners and eight wild cards (determined by record and tiebreakers). Non-football sports would stay in their current conference structure. The CST believes this model would bring more TV value and sustainability to CFB.
Pretty interesting proposal - that I think has some legs to it.
I like the sound of that, it is interesting. Any talk of what would happen to bowl games?
I also read an article where they are going to try to reel in NIL by putting a cap on how much a player could make. If the player doesn’t want to participate in the cap then they won’t have a job in college athletics.
At least it would get rid of the stupid committee and perhaps return more regionalism to the sport, along with restoring some rivalries, which are the lifeblood of CFB. The problem is that the $EC and B1G would have to agree to lower revenues which they would never accept.
It may be addressed in their proposal but if so, I didn’t see it. I would guess that it would largely remain the same with those 60 some odd programs that didn’t win their division would play in a bowl.
Who knows - maybe the revenues would be more? It was reported that beginning in 2022, each NFL team got between 250-300M per team - each season. Even were CFB to get 75% of that type of money - each of the 70 members would get 100M each season.
That dwarfs what the sec and b1g are paying each school.
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