You and I debated a couple months ago about fan expectations for this season. I don't use Twitter, but there's a premium thread discussing a poll there that Howie started. Reportedly, it sets an over/under number of 22 wins.
The comments in the premium thread indicate that many (maybe most) fans are expecting the "over" to be hit. I've previously used 20 wins and a winning ACC record as my cut point for fans to be satisfied or disappointed. And I recall you stating that I was expressing too much optimism--not in myself, but the fan base.
Unless a handful of lightly recruited additions to the roster has made a big difference, it looks like I may in fact have been conservative in my estimation of fan optimism...
Takeaways...
1) Majority went < than 22 wins. Meaning, the expectation isn't that high, not a T25 product.
2) Comments in the premium thread weren't a source of truth for you.
3) You were not conservative in your estimation of fan optimism
There is a new coach, and given the last couple of years around here it's understandable there will be a level of excitement for the program with the fans, but the majority of the fans don't seem to have that high of expectations for next year's team.
Howie's twitter in June is a place for strong loyalists, and the majority of voters went < 22 wins. It's a tell, but not the tell you wanted.
I get it man. I know how you feel. The guys that did so much got shoved out the door. The hiring process didn't extend further than the guy that was hired. And they are paying him some serious $. I get it, you do not like these people, and/or how they've come to the positions they have.
I've never said I disagree with your feelings on these things.
Next year's team doesn't look all that great on paper. But they don't play 'em on paper!!!
Leading returning scorer is a guy some fans seem to forget they hate. Leading returning rebounder is 6-4. The Jr's will be playing for their 3rd coach in as many years. They lose nearly every key player from a mediocre team. They went .500 in the ACC last year with a Preseason T15 team and this year they won't have a preseason ranking. But they will have a qualified HC unlike last year, so maybe .500 in the ACC or a game or 2 better is a fair expectation? Hard to say, unbalanced schedule, who knows who is going to be good or bad next year in June?
Hearing good things about Enoch but he averaged what, 3 ppg in CUSA? Love Sutton's tenacity and I like that Soph class. I love the program but the situation is so unique it's just difficult to place a high expectation on Mack given these circumstances.
I honestly don't recall your exact expectations for the team, and if they were too high or too low. I seem to recall you saying making the NCAAs. But you have clarified. Well 20 wins isn't some eye popping expectation, especially for Louisville basketball. 20 wins is maybe a wrong side of the bubble season. 19 wins didn't put them as the last 8 out last year. This program probably gets passed over as a bubble team for a few years. So if they are to make the NCAA they will need to have a slam dunk resume to avoid getting screwed. I hope they can accomplish that but I don't expect it to happen.
If I say I expect 18 wins is that really that much of a difference in expectation? Either way, the expectations aren't all that high.
Be sure to tell the boys on premium they let you down if you haven't already.