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zipp

Elite Member
Jun 26, 2001
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You and I debated a couple months ago about fan expectations for this season. I don't use Twitter, but there's a premium thread discussing a poll there that Howie started. Reportedly, it sets an over/under number of 22 wins.

The comments in the premium thread indicate that many (maybe most) fans are expecting the "over" to be hit. I've previously used 20 wins and a winning ACC record as my cut point for fans to be satisfied or disappointed. And I recall you stating that I was expressing too much optimism--not in myself, but the fanbase.

Unless a handful of lightly recruited additions to the roster has made a big difference, it looks like I may in fact have been conservative in my estimation of fan optimism...
 
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Right now, the poll is sitting at 65% on the under and 35% on the over. 7 of our games are against preseason top 10 teams. I think most fans are realistic about what the team is facing and how the actions of McGee/Fair and the lack of oversight by Pitino have set things back. The future is bright though!
 
You and I debated a couple months ago about fan expectations for this season. I don't use Twitter, but there's a premium thread discussing a poll there that Howie started. Reportedly, it sets an over/under number of 22 wins.

The comments in the premium thread indicate that many (maybe most) fans are expecting the "over" to be hit. I've previously used 20 wins and a winning ACC record as my cut point for fans to be satisfied or disappointed. And I recall you stating that I was expressing too much optimism--not in myself, but the fanbase.

Unless a handful of lightly recruited additions to the roster has made a big difference, it looks like I may in fact have been conservative in my estimation of fan optimism...
I think at the least a winning ACC record is what I expect. Not to say, if that doesnt happen I would ever jump ship. I think this thing will take time with all of the variables at play. I'll just say that I would be very happy with a winning ACC record.
 
I think at the least a winning ACC record is what I expect. Not to say, if that doesnt happen I would ever jump ship. I think this thing will take time with all of the variables at play. I'll just say that I would be very happy with a winning ACC record.
I think that's representative of most fans. I also think that will land us at around 20 wins. Same as last season...one win shy of each.
 
I think that's representative of most fans. I also think that will land us at around 20 wins. Same as last season...one win shy of each.
Depends on who those 20 wins come from. Win against Virginia, win against either Duke or UNC, win at ND, you know wins you expect from an elite coach.
 
Depends on who those 20 wins come from. Win against Virginia, win against either Duke or UNC, win at ND, you know wins you expect from an elite coach.
Your new coach should get a complete pass for a couple of years. He'll be fine but he isnt a miracle worker. If he gets to 20 wins next season, which I doubt he will, your entire fanbase should kiss his feet.
 
Your new coach should get a complete pass for a couple of years. He'll be fine but he isnt a miracle worker. If he gets to 20 wins next season, which I doubt he will, your entire fanbase should kiss his feet.
Right on. Mack will have a looooong leash for a while and he should. As a coach there is no feeling like being able to coach with zero expectations. I would dare say that this actually made the UL job more attractive to some. Complete freedom to shape your program with no pressure at the onset.
 
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Your new coach should get a complete pass for a couple of years. He'll be fine but he isnt a miracle worker. If he gets to 20 wins next season, which I doubt he will, your entire fanbase should kiss his feet.
Why? Nobody gave DP that and were expecting more from a guy getting paid a lot less. You’re paying for an elite coach, why can’t you expect at least some great things?
 
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Why? Nobody gave DP that and were expecting more from a guy getting paid a lot less. You’re paying for an elite coach, why can’t you expect at least some great things?

You could have Jesus coaching and there would still be mitigating factors - roster and schedule at the top of that list.
 
You and I debated a couple months ago about fan expectations for this season. I don't use Twitter, but there's a premium thread discussing a poll there that Howie started. Reportedly, it sets an over/under number of 22 wins.

The comments in the premium thread indicate that many (maybe most) fans are expecting the "over" to be hit. I've previously used 20 wins and a winning ACC record as my cut point for fans to be satisfied or disappointed. And I recall you stating that I was expressing too much optimism--not in myself, but the fan base.

Unless a handful of lightly recruited additions to the roster has made a big difference, it looks like I may in fact have been conservative in my estimation of fan optimism...

Takeaways...

1) Majority went < than 22 wins. Meaning, the expectation isn't that high, not a T25 product.
2) Comments in the premium thread weren't a source of truth for you.
3) You were not conservative in your estimation of fan optimism

There is a new coach, and given the last couple of years around here it's understandable there will be a level of excitement for the program with the fans, but the majority of the fans don't seem to have that high of expectations for next year's team.

Howie's twitter in June is a place for strong loyalists, and the majority of voters went < 22 wins. It's a tell, but not the tell you wanted.

I get it man. I know how you feel. The guys that did so much got shoved out the door. The hiring process didn't extend further than the guy that was hired. And they are paying him some serious $. I get it, you do not like these people, and/or how they've come to the positions they have.

I've never said I disagree with your feelings on these things.

Next year's team doesn't look all that great on paper. But they don't play 'em on paper!!!

Leading returning scorer is a guy some fans seem to forget they hate. Leading returning rebounder is 6-4. The Jr's will be playing for their 3rd coach in as many years. They lose nearly every key player from a mediocre team. They went .500 in the ACC last year with a Preseason T15 team and this year they won't have a preseason ranking. But they will have a qualified HC unlike last year, so maybe .500 in the ACC or a game or 2 better is a fair expectation? Hard to say, unbalanced schedule, who knows who is going to be good or bad next year in June?

Hearing good things about Enoch but he averaged what, 3 ppg in CUSA? Love Sutton's tenacity and I like that Soph class. I love the program but the situation is so unique it's just difficult to place a high expectation on Mack given these circumstances.

I honestly don't recall your exact expectations for the team, and if they were too high or too low. I seem to recall you saying making the NCAAs. But you have clarified. Well 20 wins isn't some eye popping expectation, especially for Louisville basketball. 20 wins is maybe a wrong side of the bubble season. 19 wins didn't put them as the last 8 out last year. This program probably gets passed over as a bubble team for a few years. So if they are to make the NCAA they will need to have a slam dunk resume to avoid getting screwed. I hope they can accomplish that but I don't expect it to happen.

If I say I expect 18 wins is that really that much of a difference in expectation? Either way, the expectations aren't all that high.

Be sure to tell the boys on premium they let you down if you haven't already.
 
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Why? Nobody gave DP that and were expecting more from a guy getting paid a lot less.


You seem to forget. He was given an interim job when hired. The job was understood to be temporary.

The expectation of him was to navigate the team through a tough time for a year while those put in charge began their alleged job search for the following season. I'm sure he hoped to be really successful and give those in charge something to consider with his resume. I think we were all hoping for that.

Unfortunately for DP, the players, and the fans, he wasn't really successful in the W/L column with the temporary job, cementing it to be just that for him - temporary.

He will always be appreciated for what he did, but let's not pretend he didn't get a fair shake and/or didn't understand he was hired as a temporary coach.

Or you can pretend. Go for it.
 
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Why? Nobody gave DP that and were expecting more from a guy getting paid a lot less. You’re paying for an elite coach, why can’t you expect at least some great things?

Some people were too hard to Padgett but most people did not have high expectations for the year. Other than a some fans being upset what did you want to happen for Padgett that didn't?
 
You seem to forget. He was given an interim job when hired. The job was understood to be temporary.

The expectation of him was to navigate the team through a tough time for a year while those put in charge began their alleged job search for the following season. I'm sure he hoped to be really successful and give those in charge something to consider with his resume. I think we were all hoping for that.

Unfortunately for DP, the players, and the fans, he wasn't really successful in the W/L column with the temporary job, cementing it to be just that for him - temporary.

He will always be appreciated for what he did, but let's not pretend he didn't get a fair shake and/or didn't understand he was hired as a temporary coach.

Or you can pretend. Go for it.
Well you can pretend this. VT was interim and lo and behold he’s permanent. So you told DP, hey we want you to tread water for a year while we get our real coach? Wow, that’s some real incentive. Imagine what respect you get from 18-19 year olds who know you ain’t going to be around.

No I don’t think some of the fans wanted him to do well because he wasn’t recognized as an “elite” coach that could compete with Calimari. He wasn’t a luxurious hire in people’s eyes. He won 22 games with a dysfunctional team and no he didn’t get a fair shake.
 
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Well you can pretend this. VT was interim and lo and behold he’s permanent. So you told DP, hey we want you to tread water for a year while we get our real coach? Wow, that’s some real incentive. Imagine what respect you get from 18-19 year olds who know you ain’t going to be around.

No I don’t think some of the fans wanted him to do well because he wasn’t recognized as an “elite” coach that could compete with Calimari. He wasn’t a luxurious hire in people’s eyes. He won 22 games with a dysfunctional team and no he didn’t get a fair shake.
The two situations aren't analogous at all and yes, DP was almost certainly told he was treading water for a year while they looked for a permanent coach. I won't even mention the players were very insistent that DP stay on last year.
 
Ok, I’ll rephrase it so even you can understand. They wanted the team to do well but most felt that DP was not qualified to be the HC at U of L.

Oh and by the way, you have posted way dumber stuff...

DP wasn't qualified to be the HC at UofL. The fact that he missed the tourney with a team that was talented enough to make it shows that.
 
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Last year, I expected us to finish just shy of 20 wins and an NCAA bid, which was pretty close. This year, I expect about the same for different reasons...a depleted roster, but a coach most people consider great. So, I'll gauge the season with that level of performance on Mack's part.

We'll see on fan expectations, but my takeaway in mid-summer is that people are already gearing up. A Twitter poll by Howie with 22 wins as the over/under shows at least he speculated before polling that that's a reasonable 50-50 dividing point. I'll predict by October, a few people among us are saying "2nd weekend". That's not Nostradamus on my part, that's knowing and recognizing the mentality of fans.

I'll also predict that the Mack honeymoon will be over if this team ends up in the NIT again. "Can Mack get it done?" rhetoric will be heard.

And for the interlopers, of course Mack should get plenty of time, maybe a few losing seasons to turn things around. The same reason I like Pitino Lite at LPT--not much risk of anymore titles.

Decade20of20LPT20Basketball_zps20w3vdfk.jpg
 
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Yeah, there are fans that think the football team will beat Alabama. There are fans unhappy with Petrino. There were fans unhappy with Pitino's performance prior to off-court problems. Yeah, there are going to be different opinions.

There are always going to be fan complaints when teams lose.

I do not disagree with that.

Majority of responders to his poll said < 22 wins. But not everybody. Just the majority.
 
Yeah, there are fans that think the football team will beat Alabama. There are fans unhappy with Petrino. There were fans unhappy with Pitino's performance prior to off-court problems. Yeah, there are going to be different opinions.

There are always going to be fan complaints when teams lose.

I do not disagree with that.

Majority of responders to his poll said < 22 wins. But not everybody. Just the majority.

Howie ended up putting up a new poll with over/under of 20. The results tilted to the over. Based on both polls (which would probably be made up of fairly die-hard fans) I would surmise that 21 wins is where the most fans would land. I was on the under as I see 19 wins.
 
You seem to forget. He was given an interim job when hired. The job was understood to be temporary.

The expectation of him was to navigate the team through a tough time for a year while those put in charge began their alleged job search for the following season. I'm sure he hoped to be really successful and give those in charge something to consider with his resume. I think we were all hoping for that.

Unfortunately for DP, the players, and the fans, he wasn't really successful in the W/L column with the temporary job, cementing it to be just that for him - temporary.

He will always be appreciated for what he did, but let's not pretend he didn't get a fair shake and/or didn't understand he was hired as a temporary coach.

Or you can pretend. Go for it.
Well you can pretend this. VT was interim and lo and behold he’s permanent. So you told DP, hey we want you to tread water for a year while we get our real coach? Wow, that’s some real incentive. Imagine what respect you get from 18-19 year olds who know you ain’t going to be around.

No I don’t think some of the fans wanted him to do well because he wasn’t recognized as an “elite” coach that could compete with Calimari. He wasn’t a luxurious hire in people’s eyes. He won 22 games with a dysfunctional team and no he didn’t get a fair shake.

He got as fair a shake as any inexperienced coach should get. He wasn’t made any promises and given any expectations that he would be our permanent HC. I wanted DP to do well because I like the guy. But he had no shot when the players wanted him for the HC. He was like their friend. That’s hard to overcome and compounded when you consider he had never been a HC and barely an assistant.

DP needed to get away from here, get a HC job and work his way back. I personally would love to see him here someday, just not now.
 
Howie ended up putting up a new poll with over/under of 20. The results tilted to the over. Based on both polls (which would probably be made up of fairly die-hard fans) I would surmise that 21 wins is where the most fans would land...
And those results will move in a more positive direction as the season approaches...
 
And those results will move in a more positive direction as the season approaches...

Start of thread.

"Hey Hop Howie has a poll on his extreme homer UofL twitter asking all his homer UofL followers for their season expectations and it appears the kool-aid drinkers are expecting > 22 wins, looks like I was conservative with my opinion of our fans expectations"

To...

"Well crap the majority of the extreme loyalists actually voted for < 22 wins and I'm just going to ignore those results that tell me the majority aren't expecting a lot, as well as ignore who those voters actually are and I'm going to continue to twist myself into a pretzel with my 'Application of pressure to the new regime' agenda because I do not like these guys in charge!"

Don't get me wrong. Homers opinions count! They do.

I do agree Zipp as a season approaches fans DO get excited.

GO CARDS!!!!
 
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Howie ended up putting up a new poll with over/under of 20. The results tilted to the over. Based on both polls (which would probably be made up of fairly die-hard fans) I would surmise that 21 wins is where the most fans would land. I was on the under as I see 19 wins.

Yeah, I saw that. Looks like most fans that responded to that poll expect to see an NCAA bubble type of season a lot like last year.
 
If most fan are over at 20, they're expecting to be IN the tourney...my point.

You popped the champagne it was all going to be so very exciting.

You had the evidence - Howie's homer fan poll, in June! Since the poll was going to show the majority of the fans were expecting > 22 wins you had your Exhibit A for vindication of all the hard work you've done over here this summer placing Mack into that hot seat!

Then it was discovered 63% of the homers went with the < 22.

Those %#@&$%@# ers.....

Hard to understand what went wrong here. Passionate fans that have suffered for a few years. A new regime to get behind. A turning of the page. We are UofL dagnabit!

I guess they looked at the roster and said, "Oh man there are some problems here."

I mean who knows what went wrong on that poll man?

Disappointed fans will come through for you during the season, let the cake bake. Just as they do every season.

Just give it time man. You are like a little kid on Christmas Eve. You cannot wait for an implosion - that moment when you really get to say "I told you so" to whoever it is that you're telling so and whatever it is you're telling them.

I do not share the expectation of that 37% that went > 22. But I hope they are correct, and I am wrong.
 
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21 wins would be on the bubble.

Pretty much, probably the wrong side of it, considering the FBI thing is still a cloud and USC ran 2nd in a Power 5 with 23 wins last year and hit the NIT.

This program is in a bad spot these days. The image is a factor to tempering expectations. There is alotta work to be done to get away from the smear, and it doesn't happen overnight. It's not supposed to, at least not in the eyes of the NCAA.

I know you understand it.
 
You popped the champagne it was all going to be so very exciting.

You had the evidence - Howie's homer fan poll, in June! Since the poll was going to show the majority of the fans were expecting > 22 wins you had your Exhibit A for vindication of all the hard work you've done over here this summer placing Mack into that hot seat!

Then it was discovered 63% of the homers went with the < 22.

Those %#@&$%@# ers.....

Hard to understand what went wrong here. Passionate fans that have suffered for a few years. A new regime to get behind. A turning of the page. We are UofL dagnabit!

I guess they looked at the roster and said, "Oh man there are some problems here."

I mean who knows what went wrong on that poll man?

Disappointed fans will come through for you during the season, let the cake bake. Just as they do every season.

Just give it time man. You are like a little kid on Christmas Eve. You cannot wait for an implosion - that moment when you really get to say "I told you so" to whoever it is that you're telling so and whatever it is you're telling them.

I do not share the expectation of that 37% that went > 22. But I hope they are correct, and I am wrong.
LOL... The fanbase ain't where you are. They're expecting Mack to work some kinda minor miracle as I expected them to be. Get caught up in 20 vs. 22...go ahead.

I couldn't care less where Mack sits... It's all gonna come down to on-the-court performance, but what do we talk about before then? If a coach making $4 million is doing anything "great" and is gonna be held to that standard? That's what we should be talking about...
 
LOL... The fanbase ain't where you are.

Wrong. 63% of the homers voting on his twitter in June are.... somewhere under 22 wins and not expecting much.

Fans aren't where YOU are, putting him on a HOT seat in the middle of FBI and hookers a few months before he's coached a single game.
 
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but what do we talk about before then?

Lots of things to discuss. Current players on the team, the FBI, the schedule, style of play, former Cards in the pros, former Cards trying to make the pros, ACC, recruiting.

Sure the coach too.

But every single thread doesn't need the same tired agenda you've been pumping up all summer.

Since you asked.
 
21 is in.

21 would have been in this past year, and next year's schedule is supposedly more difficult...

Here's a guy oblivious to the impact of the FBI with the NCAA selection process. USC had 23 wins and finished outright 2nd in a power 5 and got snubbed.... because of their FBI issues.

21 wins may have been a guarantee before the FBI. Maybe. Though the NCAA selection squad can never be trusted. If you're the poster child for the FBI (your words not mine!) then the selection process is a little different for you than the rest of the teams these days.
 
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