Football Revenue concern

[wilkie01]

Some facts on FSU game.

Stadium Capacity 65,000
FSU attendance 52,798
% Capacity 81.3%

If, CBP does not improve and attendance drops substantially like it did with Kragthorpe. When would the buy be cheaper than 3 or 4 years of low attendance and donations, that could occur and probably will? My guy feeling is we could be headed to 35,000 or 40,000 attendance soon.

 

[beantowncard]

Capacity is not 65k, but I get the general thrust of your post. There will be a “crossover” point. But that assumes a new coach will fill the stadium.

 

[wilkie01]

Capacity is not 65k, but I get the general thrust of your post. There will be a “crossover” point. But that assumes a new coach will fill the stadium.

So is 60,00 or 65,000 ? I just search again and am getting 65,000, 61,000 and 60,000?

 

[wilkie01]

Capacity is not 65k, but I get the general thrust of your post. There will be a “crossover” point. But that assumes a new coach will fill the stadium.

Good point. It is sort like the old Frame Oil Filter commercials. "You can pay me now or pay me later"!

 

[EKYCard643]

I would say Friday's game will say a lot about the future attendance numbers.

- Short week and fresh off a back breaking loss to a bad team.
- Saturday's loss probably broke a lot of fans
- 5 straight weeks of miserable football.
- Bad opponent that runs a boring offense and controls clock

I know nothing about Ga Tech or how many fans they might bring but I'll be surprised if there's 40,000 in the stadium.

 

[wilkie01]

I would say Friday's game will say a lot about the future attendance numbers.

- Short week and fresh off a back breaking loss to a bad team.
- Saturday's loss probably broke a lot of fans
- 5 straight weeks of miserable football.
- Bad opponent that runs a boring offense and controls clock

I know nothing about Ga Tech or how many fans they might bring but I'll be surprised if there's 40,000 in the stadium.

Tech's ESPN and Sagarin Power ratings are both 42nd. Louisville's is 73rd. If they are correct Friday night will be ugly.

 

[LouisvilleKid79]

Over/Under for crowd attendance against GT is 32,500.

The early line for this game will have to be pick’em, right?

Underdogs to GT... at home.

 

[Guardman]

So is 60,00 or 65,000 ? I just search again and am getting 65,000, 61,000 and 60,000?

The Official capacity is now listed as 60,000.

 

[zipp]

Football revenue should concern anyone--it concerns me--as well as athletics revenue generally. In the last year, we are headed the wrong way...

 

[Guardman]

Over/Under for crowd attendance against GT is 32,500.

The early line for this game will have to be pick’em, right?

Underdogs to GT... at home.

I think the GT game is a beatdown. (Tech over Cards). But I hope we can stop them and make fewer offensive mistakes and win. But I doubt it.

 

[Steelers2012]

I won't be there Friday night. Leaving for a cruise to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary. But rest assured, there will be UofL fans in our seats.

 

[wilkie01]

The Official capacity is now listed as 60,000.

Thanks

 

[Guardman]

Football revenue should concern anyone--it concerns me--as well as athletics revenue generally. In the last year, we are headed the wrong way...

Unless we get an off-season shot of 2019 season ticket revenue from fans thinking the Cards are turning it around, it looks very grim for next season. Except for the presence of Notre Dame on the schedule, which will cause a few season ticket sales, I think 2019 is headed toward lowest attendance since Kragthorpe's last year.

I believe Tyra may need to make a Mack-like hire in football to give a shot of adrenaline to ticket sales.

 

[wilkie01]

I won't be there Friday night. Leaving for a cruise to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary. But rest assured, there will be UofL fans in our seats.

Congratulations are in order! Enjoy.

 

[wilkie01]

Unless we get an off-season shot of 2019 season ticket revenue from fans thinking the Cards are turning it around, it looks very grim for next season. Except for the presence of Notre Dame on the schedule, which will cause a few season ticket sales, I think 2019 is headed toward lowest attendance since Kragthorpe's last year.

I believe Tyra may need to make a Mack-like hire in football to give a shot of adrenaline to ticket sales.

I agree 100%.

 

[swurv99]

Even if football revenue goes down the school will cover the loss. Plus you all also forget that clemson also comes here in 2019 as well. So season ticket sales should be fine next season considering those 2 teams are on the home schedule

 

[Rollem Cards]

If it doesn’t turn around some season ticket holders will get well from ND and Clemson fans.

Maybe pay for their season.

 

[zipp]

Even if football revenue goes down the school will cover the loss...

WTH does that mean? With what? Is that just optimistic fan talk?

Keep in mind that Neeli was just told a few months ago during the budgeting process--paraphrasing--that she ain't raising money anymore by raiding piggy banks. That was over $20 million.

So she's giving someone like Jeff Brohm $30 million this year from unknown sources?

Right...

 

[beantowncard]

I won't be there Friday night. Leaving for a cruise to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary. But rest assured, there will be UofL fans in our seats.

Congratulations, Steelers! We passed that milestone last year. Enjoy your cruise!

 

[KerryRhodes]

WTH does that mean? With what? Is that just optimistic fan talk?

Keep in mind that Neeli was just told a few months ago during the budgeting process--paraphrasing--that she ain't raising money anymore by raiding piggy banks. That was over $20 million.

So she's giving someone like Jeff Brohm $30 million this year from unknown sources?

Right...

And gate revenues go down because there are 40, 000 fans instead of 60.
That means less spending by less customers at the games.

Merchandise sales are going down.
TV viewership is going down.

Much like Petrino, you lose.

 

[beantowncard]

WTH does that mean? With what? Is that just optimistic fan talk?

Keep in mind that Neeli was just told a few months ago during the budgeting process--paraphrasing--that she ain't raising money anymore by raiding piggy banks. That was over $20 million.

So she's giving someone like Jeff Brohm $30 million this year from unknown sources?

Right...

Zipp, whether justified or not, fan psychology is important to ticket sales. If Bobby has lost the fan base, what will be the lost revenue from non-renewed season tickets and lost single game and walk-up revenue? At what point does it cost us more to keep Bobby than to buy him out. I still think he can turn things around, and if a young team is on the way up at year’s end ( a win over LPT would work wonders) he may recover. But there is a turning point, where ticket sales might be saved, at least in the short run, by the excitement of s new coach. What is that point?

 

[PRPclass76]

We can argue all day long about the merits of keeping CBP or firing him but Zipp nailed it, CBP has lost the fan base and that seemingly always get your fired. I remember a defiant uk ad, cm newton, stating he was NOT going to fire Bill Curry. After two home games of 20,000 fans, he fired him. Puts AD's in no win situation. So be it.

 

[zipp]

Zipp, whether justified or not, fan psychology is important to ticket sales. If Bobby has lost the fan base, what will be the lost revenue from non-renewed season tickets and lost single game and walk-up revenue? At what point does it cost us more to keep Bobby than to buy him out. I still think he can turn things around, and if a young team is on the way up at year’s end ( a win over LPT would work wonders) he may recover. But there is a turning point, where ticket sales might be saved, at least in the short run, by the excitement of s new coach. What is that point?

Well, let me ask this question... Why has Tyra budgeted basketball ticket revenue to decline by 15% (adj. for the # games played) this coming season vs. 2017-18? Haven't I been hearing about a lot of optimism with Chris Mack's arrival on the scene? That ULAA budget was cast after Mack's arrival.

Why would a new football coach be delivering the opposite results? I'm not saying it wouldn't to some degree stem the bleeding. But there are big factors at work with U of L athletics revenue nowadays in addition to on-the-field performance. It's how the women's basketball team just came off their most successful regular season in school history during which their attendance numbers declined 10%.

You guys don't have all of the necessary variables in your money equation...

 

[beantowncard]

Well, let me ask this question... Why has Tyra budgeted basketball ticket revenue to decline by 15% (adj. for the # games played) this coming season vs. 2017-18? Haven't I been hearing about a lot of optimism with Chris Mack's arrival on the scene? That ULAA budget was cast after Mack's arrival.

Why would a new football coach be delivering the opposite results? I'm not saying it wouldn't to some degree stem the bleeding. But there are big factors at work with U of L athletics revenue nowadays in addition to on-the-field performance. It's how the women's basketball team just came off their most successful regular season in school history during which their attendance numbers declined 10%.

You guys don't have all of the necessary variables in your money equation...

But still there is a tipping point. We don’t know how a new coach would affect that, it’s true. But we can project lost revenue (we have experience with CSK and CRC as to how our fan base reacts to ineptitude). At some point, we are losing more revenue than it costs to buy Bobby out. I hope and believe he can turn it around. We have a short week to prepare for a challenging opponent. I hope the coaches can get the team focused and ready to play. But if we are trending down, how far can we ride with Bobby, mathematically, until it’s better to go in a different direction. These decisions are never made with complete data sets. No one can predict the future. Estimates are all we have.

 

[EKYCard643]

I'm honestly asking a question here as I'm not an accountant and I don't have intimate knowledge of UL athletics.

Isn't there a point of diminishing returns for retaining Petrino? Petrino's buyout is massive, but if attendance numbers continue to decline as much as I think they will and fans continue to get more and more fed up with Petrino isn't there a point where it makes more sense for the ULAA to pay the lump sum and be done with it in order to try and repair the program?

Would it make more sense to overlook the issues of the last 5 years and hope Petrino turns it around? My question is basically is it smarter to bite the bullet now and try and replace Petrino or keep him and hope that he turns it around? The thing with a new coach is that at least you buy excitement and patience and you can sell the unknown. What if they keep Petrino after a 4-8 season, UL brings in a 50th ranked class, there's no excitement for next year, Notre Dame rolls them to start the season and UL limps to a 5 or 6 win season next year while consistently playing in front of 35,000 fans.

Basically is the risk of betting on Petrino worth it or does it make more sense to cut bait now and allow the new AD to hire his guy? Assuming UL can afford to pay Petrino and get the coach they want.

 

[Guardman]

A Ten-Thousand (10,000) per game drop in average Attendance, at about $75.00 per seat loss per game on the average, is $750,000 per game lost. Multiply times 6 ( for the 6 games next year, and the 6 games most years), and you get a direct loss of about $4.5M per year. That's probably a little understated. It would be a little more due to other factors. As advertising will fall off as well. And unrelated contributions will fall off also. I think a figure of at least $5M per year for a loss of 10,000 in average attendance gets it about right.

It would take roughly three years of large attendance losses to equal the total one-time expense of all the buyouts and extra expenses from making a head coaching change.

 

[nccardfan]

I won't be there Friday night. Leaving for a cruise to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary. But rest assured, there will be UofL fans in our seats.

Congrats! My wife and I are doing a cruise for the first time and leaving out on Sunday hopefully fresh off a win against GT.

 

[nccardfan]

I don’t know how you can accurately gauge total revenue lost or gain by football attendance. I do know this, at the WKU game, it was said there was 54,000 in attendance. BS unless you went out and counted people in the green lot. I think some people don’t even come into the stadium, especially if the team doesn’t get off to a good start. At kickoff it looked at best 35,000 or a little bit over half. Not to mention the group of U of L fans in my section that left at halftime because they wanted to get to subway! All I know is that they didn’t come back to their seats. Yeah they bought tickets to the game but their not buying beer and food.

 

[Guardman]

The actual attendance doesn't matter that much to revenue. It's the amount of tickets sold.

 

[Louis III]

IMO, a big factor is the number of season tickets sold. Key indicator, in general, of how many tickets you can count on for 6-7 home games. If that number drops significantly, then look out. Unfortunately, I dont think they will have those results until the spring, right?

 

[Guardman]

Next 4 seasons, Cards play 6, 7, 6, 7 Home games.

 

[Steelers2012]

Congrats! My wife and I are doing a cruise for the first time and leaving out on Sunday hopefully fresh off a win against GT.

Thanks. Cruises are fun and actually a very good travel value. Where is your cruise port, and what are your destinations? This will be our 5th. Always a great time.

 

[PushupMan]

Low attendance will certainly be a factor, but fan discontent and negativity around the program will be an even bigger one. If the negativity around the program gets so high that Petrino cannot attract recruits that can compete in the ACC, then Bobby will accept a buyout and go coach somewhere else. Even if he's let go at Louisville, he could flourish as an offensive coordinator in the NFL or even at another college program.

If you're him, at what point do you think (but certainly not say until the school buys you out) "I don't really need to put up with this crap...."?

 

[EKYCard643]

Low attendance will certainly be a factor, but fan discontent and negativity around the program will be an even bigger one. If the negativity around the program gets so high that Petrino cannot attract recruits that can compete in the ACC, then Bobby will accept a buyout and go coach somewhere else. Even if he's let go at Louisville, he could flourish as an offensive coordinator in the NFL or even at another college program.

If you're him, at what point do you think (but certainly not say until the school buys you out) "I don't really need to put up with this crap...."?

I think Petrino has likely been blackballed from the NFL and I would think he would be far too arrogant to take an OC spot and I'm not sure there are many HC that would want to work with him.

But the program negativity I agree with. If frustrated fans sit through another 7-8 weeks of this and UL finishes 4-8 with a beatdown by a top 15 ranked UK team....fan morale is going to be low, low and there's going to be zero buzz for next year and a lackluster recruiting class coming in combined with Bobby losing all the local state talent to UK.

 

[Guardman]

Low attendance will certainly be a factor, but fan discontent and negativity around the program will be an even bigger one. If the negativity around the program gets so high that Petrino cannot attract recruits that can compete in the ACC, then Bobby will accept a buyout and go coach somewhere else. Even if he's let go at Louisville, he could flourish as an offensive coordinator in the NFL or even at another college program.

If you're him, at what point do you think (but certainly not say until the school buys you out) "I don't really need to put up with this crap...."?

I fully support him at this point. I think he has been a very good coach for Louisville. I am positive and hopeful that good results start happening again and soon. I pray for him, his family, his coaches and the team.

But, if things get worse and worse and worse much faster, then the only thing that matters is season ticket sales. If fans are very DOWN, then that will show up immediately in season ticket sales.

 

[CATFANFOLIFE87]

Basically is the risk of betting on Petrino worth it or does it make more sense to cut bait now and allow the new AD to hire his guy? Assuming UL can afford to pay Petrino and get the coach they want.

Firing a coach after one bad season when he’s averaged 8.5 wins the previous 4 seasons might make a coaching search harder

 

[EKYCard643]

Firing a coach after one bad season when he’s averaged 8.5 wins the previous 4 seasons might make a coaching search harder

Normally I would agree with you, but with a candidate like Jeff Brohm out there I don't think there's that much risk.

And, again, yes if you just look at wins and losses it would be dumb to fire him but like most things his record and all the things around the program over the last 5 years need to be put in context.

 

[CATFANFOLIFE87]

Normally I would agree with you, but with a candidate like Jeff Brohm out there I don't think there's that much risk.

And, again, yes if you just look at wins and losses it would be dumb to fire him but like most things his record and all the things around the program over the last 5 years need to be put in context.

I checked earlier just because I was curious. Brohm’s buyout actually isn’t bad. It’s 4.4 million until DEC. 5th then it drops to 3.3 million. The Purdue AD isn’t trapping him with a buyout in hopes of building loyalty with Brohm when other schools do come calling. Barnhart has done the same with Stoops.

Brohm does have a 7 year $29 million guaranteed contract. UL would have to offer him A LOT of money that he hasn’t honestly proven he’s worth yet to get him.

 

[nccardfan]

Thanks. Cruises are fun and actually a very good travel value. Where is your cruise port, and what are your destinations? This will be our 5th. Always a great time.

Eastern Caribbean. Headed out from Canaveral and going to San Martten, Puerto Rico. 7 days!

 

[PushupMan]

I fully support him at this point. I think he has been a very good coach for Louisville. I am positive and hopeful that good results start happening again and soon. I pray for him, his family, his coaches and the team.

But, if things get worse and worse and worse much faster, then the only thing that matters is season ticket sales. If fans are very DOWN, then that will show up immediately in season ticket sales.

I actually agree with every thing you've stated here. Nothing really wrong with Petrino or this team that some experience for Jawon Pass and Malik Cunningham won't fix. Once those guys start making the correct decisions consistently, teams will not be able to load the box and force the UofL QB to make plays, because doing so will result in their defenses getting torched. They will have to respect the deep and intermediate passing routes that our receivers are running, which will open up the running game.

It's just going to be a struggle all year, and at this point the team is only one win short of where Phil Steele's power rankings have them for this year. Contrary to what many in our fan base think, the sky is not falling at this point.