A Broad-Ranging Post
I have not posted in some time on the board, or anywhere else for that matter. I have been unable to properly perform keyboard typing functions while recovering from major surgery.
The ACC has announced a new FB divisionless scheduling model for 2023-2026 (Thank the Good Lord!!) and the Big Ten announced that both Southern Cal and UCLA will leave the Pac-12 to join their conference in 2025. Consequently there has been wide-ranging speculation on the future of the ACC, especially, as it is the only conference with all TV/media rights fully granted by every school until June 30, 2036. Moreover locked into a very low-priced rights compensation agreement with ESPN during this time. Top-line revenue potential seems quite limited. The proximate estimate is ~$40-60m per season difference in average per team funding for the next 10 years or so. Meaning Vandy, Northwestern and Rutgers will be taking in ~$50m more yearly than Clemson, Florida State.
So I have a few thoughts to share. My typing is still quite limited, but here goes:
The Impact of the Big Ten’s Incredible Power Move on Louisville’s Future:
While difficult, it's not a kill-shot … at least not yet. Louisville has always played the underdog. Louisville has consistently shown itself to be a survivor. Nearly always figuring out a good way to move forward. Everyone reading this board knows there are lots of moving parts to this puzzle. So much to say and so much has already been said.
I have not posted in some time on the board, or anywhere else for that matter. I have been unable to properly perform keyboard typing functions while recovering from major surgery.
The ACC has announced a new FB divisionless scheduling model for 2023-2026 (Thank the Good Lord!!) and the Big Ten announced that both Southern Cal and UCLA will leave the Pac-12 to join their conference in 2025. Consequently there has been wide-ranging speculation on the future of the ACC, especially, as it is the only conference with all TV/media rights fully granted by every school until June 30, 2036. Moreover locked into a very low-priced rights compensation agreement with ESPN during this time. Top-line revenue potential seems quite limited. The proximate estimate is ~$40-60m per season difference in average per team funding for the next 10 years or so. Meaning Vandy, Northwestern and Rutgers will be taking in ~$50m more yearly than Clemson, Florida State.
So I have a few thoughts to share. My typing is still quite limited, but here goes:
The Impact of the Big Ten’s Incredible Power Move on Louisville’s Future:
While difficult, it's not a kill-shot … at least not yet. Louisville has always played the underdog. Louisville has consistently shown itself to be a survivor. Nearly always figuring out a good way to move forward. Everyone reading this board knows there are lots of moving parts to this puzzle. So much to say and so much has already been said.
- The ACC may survive. Intact. Four programs will determine the future for the next few years: Notre Dame, UNC, Florida State, Clemson.
- The ACC may come undone. Quickly or slowly. UNC has the most power to hold it together. Their pride may do it. The GoR is strong.
- The purported endgame may be two Superconferences. Or not. Maybe 2 Tier Ones and 2 or 3 Tier Twos. ESPN and Fox will have the most to say on that.
- Beginning 2026 a new undefined CFP will begin. The Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame will determine what it is. The new CFP money is what will pay for all this superconference/realignment shenanigans.
- The Pac-12 is hurt. If Oregon and Washington go, the Pac is dead.
- Broadcast rights will brutally dominate CFB Revenue budgets. Donations will matter a lot less. Off-Book NIL a lot more. Schools with strong ticket sales will have a better chance of surviving and thriving.
- Basketball can make a difference. Could even become a deciding factor in a close contest. But only at the margin.
- Tough that this happens during worst UofL major sports performance span in a very long time. Just the rotten breaks.
- Next 2-3 years FB/MBB performance @ Louisville will make huge difference in options. Cards need to win games and sell tickets. Butts in seats. Excitement.
- Louisville strength is ALL facilities, and overall sports. And Basketball Heritage. Yum and Cardinal Stadium and WBB and baseball and volleyball do make a big difference.
- ACC is the 3rd strongest athletics conference. And arguably the strongest academics conference. Though the Big Ten would argue.
- The pecking order of ACC teams in a full-blown full-capitulation full-raid realignment is: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, FSU. Virginia will go where UNC goes. Miami is valued for market only. VT would/could only go to SEC. Duke valued for academic prestige and basketball only. Duke will not be left without a chair.
- BC, Wake, Syracuse are bottom of ACC pecking order.
- Louisville, GT, Pitt and NC State have little power in all of this.
- Louisville’s best shots: 1. Stretch the game out and get stronger to have better options. 2. ACC stays strong and together, minimizes $$$ differences and survives intact. 3. Remain in a weakened ACC. 4. Go where ESPN tells us to. 5. In a 24 team config, go to the SEC.6. If all else fails relish Independence in a few years.
- Float like a butterfly. Sting like a bee.
