Working on the assumption that Louisville will see its 2020 FB schedule reduced to either 9 or 10 games, I wanted to guesstimate what the lost/gained media revenue effects might be:
I am only going to use the ESPN/ACC contract numbers ... NOT ticket sales or donations. Ticket Sales effects will be huge. To say the least!
I am working on the assumption that each ACC team gets receives "effectively" about $34m total during the year from ESPN. This amount is for FB + MBB + WBB + Baseball + all other sports. It covers an approximation for both main ESPN contract plus the ESPN-ACCN adder. $2.2 m per ACC vs ACC FB game played ... from ESPN. Each ACC team normally plays 8 ACC games. (Each ACC team normally plays 20 MBB regular-season games plus one-to-four MBB ACC Tourney games). I believe that about 90% of the revenue provided is for the FB and MBB games. The WBB and Baseball and all other sports effective revenue is negligible.
So to simplify it, each team plays 8 FB games and gets about $2.2m per FB reg season game.
And....further....each team plays 20 MBB games and gets about $0.6m per MBB reg season game.
So..those two add up to about $29.6m.
The ACC FB Championship and the ACC MBB Tourney and ACC WBB Tourney likely provide most of the other $4.4m revenue per team.
(I could be off a little on the per-game numbers, but probably not too much)
But again, I'm only going to try to calculate the FB effects.
In Louisville's case, the Notre Dame game this season is scheduled to pay $ZERO, because the game revenue all goes from NBC to Notre Dame, as the game is scheduled for South Bend.
I think the media revenue effects from the Western and Murray games would be minimal.
The loss of the UK game would be quite significant. I just don't know how to estimate it. I don't know if the revenue effect to Louisville (as a HOME game) would be somewhat more or less than the regular ACC games. I am guessing a little less.
So, Louisville losing one ACC game (no matter which game it is), would reduce media revenue by about $2.2m. The reverse is true also, as adding a 9th ACC game would surely increase the media revenue by about $2,2m.
Losing the Murray and Western games reduces the minimum "Buy" by probably about $1.5m total. But that's not revenue. That's expense. A reduction of $1.5m in expense.
Losing the Notre Dame game would result in No Difference in either Revenue or Expense. Except mainly for game day travel costs. And a little bit of radio revenue.
From a Total Financial Effects perspective, adding a ninth ACC game, canceling Western and Murray, canceling Notre Dame and keeping Kentucky probably have the best positive financial effect on Louisville.
EDIT:
Another added revenue piece that ACC might be able to get from ESPN is the added eyeball effect of having more baked-in TV viewers due to severe stadium capacity limitations. I think 10-15% more could be valued into each game.
I am only going to use the ESPN/ACC contract numbers ... NOT ticket sales or donations. Ticket Sales effects will be huge. To say the least!
I am working on the assumption that each ACC team gets receives "effectively" about $34m total during the year from ESPN. This amount is for FB + MBB + WBB + Baseball + all other sports. It covers an approximation for both main ESPN contract plus the ESPN-ACCN adder. $2.2 m per ACC vs ACC FB game played ... from ESPN. Each ACC team normally plays 8 ACC games. (Each ACC team normally plays 20 MBB regular-season games plus one-to-four MBB ACC Tourney games). I believe that about 90% of the revenue provided is for the FB and MBB games. The WBB and Baseball and all other sports effective revenue is negligible.
So to simplify it, each team plays 8 FB games and gets about $2.2m per FB reg season game.
And....further....each team plays 20 MBB games and gets about $0.6m per MBB reg season game.
So..those two add up to about $29.6m.
The ACC FB Championship and the ACC MBB Tourney and ACC WBB Tourney likely provide most of the other $4.4m revenue per team.
(I could be off a little on the per-game numbers, but probably not too much)
But again, I'm only going to try to calculate the FB effects.
In Louisville's case, the Notre Dame game this season is scheduled to pay $ZERO, because the game revenue all goes from NBC to Notre Dame, as the game is scheduled for South Bend.
I think the media revenue effects from the Western and Murray games would be minimal.
The loss of the UK game would be quite significant. I just don't know how to estimate it. I don't know if the revenue effect to Louisville (as a HOME game) would be somewhat more or less than the regular ACC games. I am guessing a little less.
So, Louisville losing one ACC game (no matter which game it is), would reduce media revenue by about $2.2m. The reverse is true also, as adding a 9th ACC game would surely increase the media revenue by about $2,2m.
Losing the Murray and Western games reduces the minimum "Buy" by probably about $1.5m total. But that's not revenue. That's expense. A reduction of $1.5m in expense.
Losing the Notre Dame game would result in No Difference in either Revenue or Expense. Except mainly for game day travel costs. And a little bit of radio revenue.
From a Total Financial Effects perspective, adding a ninth ACC game, canceling Western and Murray, canceling Notre Dame and keeping Kentucky probably have the best positive financial effect on Louisville.
EDIT:
Another added revenue piece that ACC might be able to get from ESPN is the added eyeball effect of having more baked-in TV viewers due to severe stadium capacity limitations. I think 10-15% more could be valued into each game.
