Do we get gashed on the ground by MSU?

[zipp]

You have yet to show any of us any data that shows Louisville has equal talent than they teams they lost too. While everyone has provided you data. Recruiting rankings in that position, transfer portal, NFL projections and actual of field performance for 2 years. This staff did a hell of a job on defense for the season considering EVERYTHING. The players deserve a ton credit as well.

We will evaluate next year on their overall season. We will see if they improve I think they will.

Here are the average star ratings for most of the schools in this discussion during the period 2015-2019...

Miami 3.3
Mississippi State 3.2
Slappies 3.0
U of L 2.9

Based on my analysis for single recruiting classes, a class difference of 0.3 is borderline significant. I don't know how that compares to a statistical analysis over a 5-year period except that you would have more samples and likely more variation, which are offsetting factors.

There's little chance the slapd!cks have significantly more talent than we do on their current roster, but Miami might. That doesn't mean that Miami blitzed us because they have a talent advantage, not when MSU had nearly the same talent advantage and lost.

It also bears consideration of what is a RELEVANT advantage. Bama's recruiting over the same five-year period averaged 3.9 stars. Even if the above numbers were accurate, it would mean that LPT would have about 10% of that talent advantage, and MSU about one-third as much.

As I've been saying, you can't explain the LPT result as due primarily to talent unless you're just in search of excuses. And the Miami and Mississippi State results in tandem don't indicate that talent was the primary driver. In the wake of our more embarrassing losses this season, "talent" is all some people wanted to talk about...

 

[zipp]

Since this is a message board, and we’re all pretty free with opinions/theories, what’s yours?

I don't have a problem saying I don't know something or we don't have enough data.

I have a big problem when people think they can conclude things that they can't, esp. when couched as fact instead of opinion or hypothesis...

 

[Thecycle27]

Here are the average star ratings for most of the schools in this discussion during the period 2015-2019...

Miami 3.3
Mississippi State 3.2
Slappies 3.0
U of L 2.9

Based on my analysis for single recruiting classes, a class difference of 0.3 is borderline significant. I don't know how that compares to a statistical analysis over a 5-year period except that you would have more samples and likely more variation, which are offsetting factors.

There's little chance the slapd!cks have significantly more talent than we do on their current roster, but Miami might. That doesn't mean that Miami blitzed us because they have a talent advantage, not when MSU had nearly the same talent advantage and lost.

It also bears consideration of what is a RELEVANT advantage. Bama's recruiting over the same five-year period averaged 3.9 stars. Even if the above numbers were accurate, it would mean that LPT would have about 10% of that talent advantage, and MSU about one-third as much.

As I've been saying, you can't explain the LPT result as due primarily to talent unless you're just in search of excuses. And the Miami and Mississippi State results in tandem don't indicate that talent was the primary driver. In the wake of our more embarrassing losses this season, "talent" is all some people wanted to talk about...

Last time how many of those recruits on the front 7 have actually played. It was in the article that you apparently aren’t liking. The class was ranked higher because of the skill position players. The actual front 7, mainly DLine, lost the majority of it recruits and never played at Louisville.

Greenard-All SEC I think
Love
Jackson
Slater
Boykin
Blue-been hurt
Dumervil-RS
Wlliams

Remove all those guys from your rankings let me know what you come up with.

You are ignoring the reality of the mess Petrino left. Yeah this happens when the more talented team plays well and the less talented team plays poorly you get blowouts. UK will have 3-5 guys off that Oline play in the NFL plus Bowden. I hate UK but that doesn’t change the fact they are really good up front and once they put Bowden in they only made that group better.

What the staff and kids did was amazing because they were undermanned and they played their butts off.

 

[Knucklehank1]

One of the most objective measures of talent is draftable players. In the 2019 draft, UofL had 0 players drafted. In the 2020 draft, Becton will be the only player drafted. Just off the cuff, at this point the only likely draftable players are Tutu Atwell (assuming he’d leave) and Dez Fitzpatrick in 2021. If that holds to form you are looking at a 3 year window where 3 guys were drafted and only one interior guy. One can look at recruiting rankings but the NFL draft is where you see who actually converted rankings into developed talent. Just for reference, UK had 5 guys drafted last year. Probably will have 3 this year and have several projected for next year.

 

[gocds]

One of the most objective measures of talent is draftable players. In the 2019 draft, UofL had 0 players drafted. In the 2020 draft, Becton will be the only player drafted. Just off the cuff, at this point the only likely draftable players are Tutu Atwell (assuming he’d leave) and Dez Fitzpatrick in 2021. If that holds to form you are looking at a 3 year window where 3 guys were drafted and only one interior guy. One can look at recruiting rankings but the NFL draft is where you see who actually converted rankings into developed talent. Just for reference, UK had 5 guys drafted last year. Probably will have 3 this year and have several projected for next year.

Yeah, just another deal to thank Bobby Petrino for. The best thing CBP could do is destroy a football program. Just more evidence of an intentional destruction to get “the money”. Sue his ass Vince.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Got to say rankings are useless if a large quantity of players incorporated in the rankings aren't on the team. This would be true no matter what the ranking is, for better or worse. That's just an obvious fact. I know alot goes into the conversation but why would rankings matter if alot of the players incorporated into those rankings aren't on the team?

 

[BPGhost]

Got to say rankings are useless if a large quantity of players incorporated in the rankings aren't on the team. This would be true no matter what the ranking is, for better or worse. That's just an obvious fact. I know alot goes into the conversation but why would rankings matter if alot of the players incorporated into those rankings aren't on the team?

You can add intentionally disingenuous to useless.

 

[zipp]

Last time how many of those recruits on the front 7 have actually played. It was in the article that you apparently aren’t liking. The class was ranked higher because of the skill position players. The actual front 7, mainly DLine, lost the majority of it recruits and never played at Louisville.

Greenard-All SEC I think
Love
Jackson
Slater
Boykin
Blue-been hurt
Dumervil-RS
Wlliams

Remove all those guys from your rankings let me know what you come up with.

You are ignoring the reality of the mess Petrino left. Yeah this happens when the more talented team plays well and the less talented team plays poorly you get blowouts. UK will have 3-5 guys off that Oline play in the NFL plus Bowden. I hate UK but that doesn’t change the fact they are really good up front and once they put Bowden in they only made that group better.

What the staff and kids did was amazing because they were undermanned and they played their butts off.

Got to say rankings are useless if a large quantity of players incorporated in the rankings aren't on the team. This would be true no matter what the ranking is, for better or worse. That's just an obvious fact. I know alot goes into the conversation but why would rankings matter if alot of the players incorporated into those rankings aren't on the team?

Five years of data encompass ALL of the players on the rosters except for transfers in or out. It doesn’t cherry pick the players you wanna count.

If you’d like to do your own analysis and not just a narrative, compile the objective ratings of kids who played in a game mapped to their playing time or at least a participation chart. Spreadsheet it and C&P it into a post.

And I don’t ignore anything that’s not just presented as some sort of obvious narrative. That would be rewarding laziness...

 

[zipp]

One of the most objective measures of talent is draftable players. In the 2019 draft, UofL had 0 players drafted. In the 2020 draft, Becton will be the only player drafted. Just off the cuff, at this point the only likely draftable players are Tutu Atwell (assuming he’d leave) and Dez Fitzpatrick in 2021. If that holds to form you are looking at a 3 year window where 3 guys were drafted and only one interior guy. One can look at recruiting rankings but the NFL draft is where you see who actually converted rankings into developed talent. Just for reference, UK had 5 guys drafted last year. Probably will have 3 this year and have several projected for next year.

That’s another chicken and egg situation... Players get drafted off of teams that also play well. Find me other teams with 2-3 wins on a recent season that had multiple players drafted...

 

[zipp]

Yeah, just another deal to thank Bobby Petrino for. The best thing CBP could do is destroy a football program. Just more evidence of an intentional destruction to get “the money”. Sue his ass Vince...

“Sue him”? Your guy can’t give Petrino enough money. About $8 million still to go...

 

[REDFISTFURY3]

“Sue him”? Your guy can’t give Petrino enough money. About $8 million still to go...

Word is Bobby and Tom were seen on 1st street Baders diving up .Tom's cut of his buyout.

 

[Knucklehank1]

That’s another chicken and egg situation... Players get drafted off of teams that also play well. Find me other teams with 2-3 wins on a recent season that had multiple players drafted...

I realize it doesn’t fit your narrative. However, looking at number of guys drafted is a pretty objective way to decipher talent level. In fact I think you could make a slick graph that plots draftees and wins. And then perhaps you could make a narrative around that for this season that says wow UofL only had one player drafted but garnered 8 wins. That spread between wins and draftable players must be largely attributed to other factors such as superior coaching and scheme, team chemistry, etc.

 

[zipp]

I realize it doesn’t fit your narrative. However, looking at number of guys drafted is a pretty objective way to decipher talent level. In fact I think you could make a slick graph that plots draftees and wins. And then perhaps you could make a narrative around that for this season that says wow UofL only had one player drafted but garnered 8 wins. That spread between wins and draftable players must be largely attributed to other factors such as superior coaching and scheme, team chemistry, etc.

It doesn't fit my narrative because your example is flawed cause-and-effect. You can always dig out the data that proves me wrong...

 

[Knucklehank1]

It doesn't fit my narrative because your example is flawed cause-and-effect. You can always dig out the data that proves me wrong...

Nothing flawed about the notion that the number of draftable players is an objective measure of talent. Zipp logic - “why use NFL scout evaluations of guys that are playing in college when you can use high school recruiting rankings before they arrived on campus to determine roster talent”.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Back OT......no we didn’t get “gashed”. Much to the dismay of several on here.

 

[zipp]

Nothing flawed about the notion that the number of draftable players is an objective measure of talent. Zipp logic - “why use NFL scout evaluations of guys that are playing in college when you can use high school recruiting rankings before they arrived on campus to determine roster talent”.

Your problem is that it's not JUST a measure of talent. It's biased by other factors like a winning team/program.

And a small fraction of players get drafted even on successful college teams. OTOH Rivals rates nearly 100% of the kids on most P5 rosters.

knuckles logic - "why use a Rivals rating that encompasses all players when it doesn't support my POV?"

 

[Thecycle27]

Five years of data encompass ALL of the players on the rosters except for transfers in or out. It doesn’t cherry pick the players you wanna count.

If you’d like to do your own analysis and not just a narrative, compile the objective ratings of kids who played in a game mapped to their playing time or at least a participation chart. Spreadsheet it and C&P it into a post.

And I don’t ignore anything that’s not just presented as some sort of obvious narrative. That would be rewarding laziness...

Your entire point is talent and depth weren’t an issue on defense. All the data points to Louisville was lacking in talent and depth. You haven’t shown or provided anything that supports your claim.

The only thing you have provided was 5 years of recruiting rankings that is meaningless when a high percentage of those players recruited for defense didn’t play on defense this year.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Your problem is that it's not JUST a measure of talent. It's biased by other factors like a winning team/program.

And a small fraction of players get drafted even on successful college teams. OTOH Rivals rates nearly 100% of the kids on most P5 rosters.

knuckles logic - "why use a Rivals rating that encompasses all players when it doesn't support my POV?"

“Your problem is that it's not JUST a measure of talent. It's biased by other factors like a winning team/program.”

Lol. Recruiting rankings are full of bias.

 

[zipp]

Your entire point is talent and depth weren’t an issue on defense. All the data points to Louisville was lacking in talent and depth. You haven’t shown or provided anything that supports your claim.

The only thing you have provided was 5 years of recruiting rankings that is meaningless when a high percentage of those players recruited for defense didn’t play on defense this year.

I don't know any of that except for a 5-year database of Rivals ratings that I compiled. You want me to respect your info, present it in analytical form...

 

[zipp]

“Your problem is that it's not JUST a measure of talent. It's biased by other factors like a winning team/program.”

Lol. Recruiting rankings are full of bias.

They have qualitative elements. That doesn't make them biased. You don't understand what you're trying to talk about...

 

[gocds]

“Sue him”? Your guy can’t give Petrino enough money. About $8 million still to go...

You continue to blame the wrong guy for this “payout”. We both know who gave Petrino the money in the first place and we both know that VT is only following the contract. Any other explanation is BS. So I continue to encourage a lawsuit against Petrino to get our money back and to stop any further payments. But WTH do either of us know? Not all that much apparently.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[Thecycle27]

They have qualitative elements. That doesn't make them biased. You don't understand what you're trying to talk about...

I don

I don't know any of that except for a 5-year database of Rivals ratings that I compiled. You want me to respect your info, present it in analytical form...

I don't know any of that except for a 5-year database of Rivals ratings that I compiled. You want me to respect your info, present it in analytical form...

Here you go

Since 2015 there were 27 players recruited for DT-DE-LB.

DT-7 4 never played this year
DE-9 7 never played this year
LB-11 4 never played 2 played sparingly 3 moved to DL. That is more than 60% of the recruiting class that didn’t play all or sparingly at Louisville this year.

On the current roster there are 12 guys listed on DL. 50 percent of those players were a 2 star or walk-on.

I can’t make it any clearer what this staff walked into on defense. It also tells you a lot about the kids.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

DT-7 4 never played this year
DE-9 7 never played this year
LB-11 4 never played

On the current roster there are 12 guys listed on DL. 50 percent of those players were a 2 star or walk-on.

.

That's some #'s, and I don't think he's talking about Alabama or Clemson in that post. But I'm a casual fan. Looking forward to what others think about the post above.

 

[zipp]

You continue to blame the wrong guy for this “payout”. We both know who gave Petrino the money in the first place and we both know that VT is only following the contract. Any other explanation is BS. So I continue to encourage a lawsuit against Petrino to get our money back and to stop any further payments. But WTH do either of us know? Not all that much apparently...

I know who's signing Petrino's checks and who's in charge of this lawsuit you're talking about...

 

[gocds]

I know who's signing Petrino's checks and who's in charge of this lawsuit you're talking about...

Soooooo, you are suggesting that THE UofL renege on a legal contract that was “left” to Vince Tyra by Tom Jurich. Real classy. It takes a lawsuit to do that and that is what I’m suggesting.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[zipp]

I don


Here you go

Since 2015 there were 27 players recruited for DT-DE-LB.

DT-7 4 never played this year
DE-9 7 never played this year
LB-11 4 never played 2 played sparingly 3 moved to DL. That is more than 60% of the recruiting class that didn’t play all or sparingly at Louisville this year.

On the current roster there are 12 guys listed on DL. 50 percent of those players were a 2 star or walk-on.

I can’t make it any clearer what this staff walked into on defense. It also tells you a lot about the kids.

That's not clear, that's a good start...at least enough for a HYPOTHESIS. (That's not a conclusion...)

Now present data for the other positions on the football team showing that the defensive front has been disproportionately affected by attrition. Then, fold in transfers INTO the program at the three defensive positions you cite.

Those are the elements of a complete analysis for this U of L team, not just a few facts you wanna present in its place. And be prepared for my eventual question about how that compares to other teams...

 

[zipp]

Soooooo, you are suggesting that THE UofL renege on a legal contract that was “left” to Vince Tyra by Tom Jurich. Real classy. It takes a lawsuit to do that and that is what I’m suggesting...

I'm suggesting your guy screwed up the process when Petrino was fired by simply giving him 100% of the money at issue.

You're now saying a lawsuit oughta be filed. Who's supposed to that? You and me?...

 

[zipp]

That's some #'s, and I don't think he's talking about Alabama or Clemson in that post. But I'm a casual fan. Looking forward to what others think about the post above.

...And be prepared for my eventual question about how that compares to other teams...

I don't see a comparison to Bama or Clemson as appropriate. But you're on the right track!

Numbers in a vacuum have far less meaning...

 

[PushupMan]

Thecycle27 has done enough to convince those of us who have an open mind. Jon Greenard transferring out and leading the SEC in sacks, along with Allen Love (to MSU) and Jarrett Jackson (to FSU) would have been enough to convince most people, btw.

Anybody who isn’t willing to concede the point with that much data is not worth the effort.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I don't see a comparison to Bama or Clemson as appropriate. But you're on the right track!

Numbers in a vacuum have far less meaning...

I'm open minded to all of this.

Stop me where I'm wrong.

He's pointing out players that didn't play for the team this year that are incorporated in your dataset, and he's pointing directly to the star grade of only the players that did play for the team this year, in terms of the front 7 on D.

You are using data that includes players that weren't on the team this year.

One guy is using a better dataset than the other.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Thecycle27 has done enough to convince those of us who have an open mind. Jon Greenard transferring out and leading the SEC in sacks, along with Allen Love (to MSU) and Jarrett Jackson (to FSU) would have been enough to convince most people, btw.

Anybody who isn’t willing to concede the point with that much data is not worth the effort.

That is true. I just like to hear "both sides" I think I'll leave this one be.

 

[PHCARD]

I hope the next "Game Thread" has a better title than 'do we get gashed". Or maybe that was some reverse psychology? Wish @Louisvillian would have used it against KY, in that case. Twice!!!

 

[zipp]

Thecycle27 has done enough to convince those of us who have an open mind. Jon Greenard transferring out and leading the SEC in sacks, along with Allen Love (to MSU) and Jarrett Jackson (to FSU) would have been enough to convince most people, btw.

Anybody who isn’t willing to concede the point with that much data is not worth the effort.

Aren't there in the vicinity of 35-40 guys normally on a P5 defensive depth chart? So in a vacuum, three guys are supposed to convince me? Must have been All Americans...

 

[Thecycle27]

In the ACC teams need 8-10 guys on the DLine. At Louisville they should have a 1st and 2nd string that can play at this level. The third string can be your development group. Then 4th string is redshirts. What happened is the previous staff would go heavy and light in classes which created issues when the after a light class (2017 1 Dline recruit) a heavy class didn’t work out (2018).

Classes have to balance out. There is no way to spin Petrino recruiting on defense. It made no sense. This was mainly created because he had no one in the coaching community that wanted the job. Grantham even stopped recruiting under Petrino.

That is why it will be 2021 before we will really see depth on defense.

 

[beantowncard]

I don't have a problem saying I don't know something or we don't have enough data.

I have a big problem when people think they can conclude things that they can't, esp. when couched as fact instead of opinion or hypothesis...

That standard works for a scientific journal, and it’s more or less what I do in that situation. But, as I said, this is a message board. When you post all this stuff I assume you are driving at something. Why not share the hypothesis, even if not completely supported with data? Nobody’s career us at stake and we all use fake names anyway......

 

[PushupMan]

Aren't there in the vicinity of 35-40 guys normally on a P5 defensive depth chart? So in a vacuum, three guys are supposed to convince me? Must have been All Americans...

Lazy take. I just gave you the three players who left, one of whom is a 5th year senior sure fire NFL draft choice. The other 2 were also not busts as they were good enough to be given scholarships to other P5 schools. That’s 3 definite two-deep players gone off our defensive front.

Reread my previous post on every recruited defensive player who left out of the 2015-2019 classes. For the details you are seeking.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Lazy take. I just gave you the three players who left, one of whom is a 5th year senior sure fire NFL draft choice. The other 2 were also not busts as they were good enough to be given scholarships to other P5 schools. That’s 3 definite two-deep players gone off our defensive front.

Reread my previous post on every recruited defensive player who left out of the 2015-2019 classes. For the details you are seeking.

In Zipp’s “Art of Deflection”, one of his trusted methods is to request further angles and information despite a preponderance of evidence refuting his position. At that point he’s hoping for a battle of attrition and eventually disinterest. It makes for multiple page threads.

 

[zipp]

Don’t cherry pick your data.

Use quantifiable measures whenever possible.

Do a comparative analysis, not report info in a vacuum.

You want me respect your analysis, try those things...

 

[cardsp]

“Sue him”? Your guy can’t give Petrino enough money. About $8 million still to go...

The idiot before him gave him the contract and allowed the nepotism. I guess we shouldn't have fired him he was a players coach and assistant coaches just loved working for him.

 

[zipp]

The idiot before him gave him the contract and allowed the nepotism. I guess we shouldn't have fired him he was a players coach and assistant coaches just loved working for him.

That’s living in the past. The “idiot” hasn’t been on campus for almost 2-1/2 years. Who’s got the job of filing lawsuits and writing checks today?...