I give Kelsey - A- on his first roster. Well done. Getting Pryor, Hepburn, Edwards and Hadley is a great sign for what he'll be able to do moving forward. 2 of the most coveted transfers in the portal and 2 players from very successful P5 programs is great first impression.
At this point, there’s no way of knowing how much Kelsey’s game plan will change from Winthrop/Charleston to Louisville. But based on the roster he’s assembled, we can make some assumptions.
Since his meeting with Nick Nurse, he’s coached 9 seasons. 6 of those 9 have seen his teams take 43% or more of their shots from behind the 3-point line, 7/9 take 40% or more, and 8/9 take 39% or more. His first season at Charleston was his fewest 3-point attempts in 8 years: 37.6%. His last two teams took 46.9 and 47.3% of their shots from deep. For comparison, Pitino’s last 6 teams at Louisville averaged around 33%. Mack’s around 40%, Payne’s 33%. All of Nate Oats' Alabama teams are 46%+.
Based on this roster, I think it’s safe to say we’re probably going to see 45%+
This is a “whoever gets the rebound, push the ball” roster in my opinion. Fans will have to embrace a new era of Louisville basketball. Pat Kelsey’s word of the year is VERSATILITY.
Forget positions. This roster is too talented and too versatile to worry about positions.
Louisville’s current 9-man active roster combined for 751 assists last year.
There isn’t a single player with a negative assist/turnover ratio.
All but 1 player (Traore) have great turnover % numbers.
Only 3 players (Hadley, Traore, Scott) averaged less than 1 made 3 per game. Hadley has a great shooting %, he just didn’t take many.
This roster made 352 3s last year.
This roster has 7 players that you can not leave open.
Those 7 players combined to shoot 38% from deep.
Free Throw %
Pryor – 82%
Hadley – 84%
Edwards – 80%
Waterman – 81%
Reyne Smith – 86%
Hepburn – 74%
Johnson – 72%
Traore – 68%
Previous O Ratings and D Ratings aren't much help when you have players switching to new teams, with new players, in new schemes. But what we do know if that UofL will have length and versatility to annoy opponents and clog up passing lanes.
Chucky Hepburn - 6'2
Koren Johnson - 6'2
Reyne Smith - 6'2
J'Vonn Hadley - 6'6
Terrence Edwards - 6'6
Ab. Traore - 6'5
Noah Waterman - 6'11
Kasean Pryor - 6'10
James Scott - 6'11
Franky Anselm - 6'10
You have multiple players - with length and athleticism who can initiate an offense, make a play, make the right pass and hit a 3.
You also have Hepburn, Hadley, Pryor and Traore who can be elite defenders.
I've spoke on James Scott all Summer. I'm not saying he's going to be an All ACC player from the jump. But buy stock now. He doesn't have the well rounded offense game of a Pryor. But what he does have is great athleticism, good feet to defend out onto the perimeter, aggressive demeanor in the paint, good hands and a wide wingspan. (can't find what it is exactly but it seems much longer than his height) He's going to take time to acclimate to the increase in the level of competition and a new system - it may take him until mid-February, it may not be this year. But James Scott is going to be a VERY good player.
In conclusion.
I see no glaring weaknesses in this roster. Chucky is probably one of the 20 best PGs in the country. You've got guys like Edwards, Hadley, and Johnson that can get you a bucket. You've got someone like Reyne who can park on the perimeter and destroy teams. You've got guys like Pryor and Waterman that can pull bigs out of the paint and cause mismatch issues. You've got guys like Franky and Scott to be menaces to anyone who comes near the rim. You've got multiple ball handlers, you've got multiple playmakers, shooters, defenders, size..etc. etc.
Everything is new. There will be growing pains. There's absolutely no reason this team can't be REALLY, REALLY good by the end of the year. We get Duke and UNC at home. Pitt, FSU and UVA home and away and our ACC away schedule is VERY manageable. This is a roster that could end the season with 7 or 8 losses, get in as a 6 seed and do damage.
I like my team. I like my coach. I like where my program is headed. I like that I can say all of that for the first time in 3 years.
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