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The MYTH that UK is "closer" to U of L after last year's game

Historically you're right regarding UK,,but it's not fair or accurate to pin that on Barnhart.
Fact is he cut Joker loose after 3 years, saying he did it only because of fans is just a guess. Some way to belittle him of acting appropriately.
 
Bill Derington said:
...You're right about the schedule, but that doesn't mean the team prior would've won those games, as I said every teams schedule plays a part...
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Like I said, I will (and have) put up a pretty good counterargument to that. Stupes is basically running in place. Suggest you start another thread on the topic if you wanna have that debate again.
Bill Derington said:
...And I fully understand stats. But what you presented is only half the story.

Brooks inherited a team on probation...
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He inherited a WINNING team from Morriss with illegally recruited players. And you talk "half the story"? :)
Bill Derington said:
...joker inherited a team going to bowls, and stoops record improved. Surely you can see how skewed the stats are in that picture?...
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Joker went to a bowl his first year. When U of L beat him the following year--something K-rag couldn't do with Pappaw--LPT wasn't bowl eligible. Otherwise, Pappaw and Joker were equivalent.

And Stupes has won seven games his first two years, the same number that Joker won the two prior. If Stupes doesn't make a bowl game this year--not at all a sure thing--Joker's record (games won) the three years he was coach will be better than Stupes'. Amazing and un-skewed stats.
Bill Derington said:
...Petrinos record against UK was built on beating them on probation. Those are all facts. When all things are equal Petrinos record is far less shiny.
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Petrino could have taken Pappaw's players and whooped that old a$$ just the same. You can attack Petrino's character as many try to do. Criticizing his coaching--along with Jurich's performance--are simply efforts that make you look bad.

LPT Football: We're good at looking bad...
 
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Bill Derington said:
Zipp, You're a smart guy, I've read plenty of the financial postings of yours.
You and I both know Jurich over paid Petrino. He fell all over himself because he understands Louisvilles position.

The level of denial on here is funny. You guys act like teenage boys that are p*ssy whipped. Jurich can do no wrong, and when he does you just act like it didn't happen.

Brooks inherited a team on probation, Joker inherited a team going to bowls that's a big difference I know you're aware of, but it doesn't fit your argument. did Stoops not win more the second year? What year did Joker improve win wise from the previous? Stats cab be misrepresented Zipp, that's why you use them.
And Jurich also set up Kragthorpe for failure by forcing him to keep Some of Petrinos staff. While I'll agree Jurich is a fine AD, his ego gets him in trouble. He's the definition of a big fish in a little pond lol.
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*** Careful. You're beginning to depart from your usual respectful posting.
 
zipp said:
Jurich isn't perfect. But like I said, you're just making yourself look bad attacking him. His worst day would be your best. Speaking of his worst day, that K-rag stuff and "Petrino's staff" was a U of L smokescreen to cover for the sorriest coach in U of L history.

So what was "Louisville's position"? And how can U of L be overpaying Petrino when LPT is paying Stupes roughly the same amount of money? From a coaching standpoint, no one outside of LPT land would trade Petrino for TWO of Stupes. In fact, if there's a coach paid well in excess of his performance, it's your guy.

Brooks inherited a winning team from Guy Morriss. A team with players that resulted from illegal recruiting--always funny how LPT fans never acknowledge the flipside of probation.

Stupes won more games last year largely because of the schedule. We've gone down that path already, but I'll be glad to do it again.

My experience is that people who attack stats-based arguments don't understand stats, don't have experience using data, and/or don't really have a good counterargument. LPT fans generally fit one of these categories.

LPT Football: We hate facts...
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Here's some stats for you from football outsiders.com:

Joker took over a team that had the 53rd Offensive FEI, and the 54th ranked Defensive FEI in 2009. By 2012 those rankings had fallen to the 105th ranked OFEI and the 117th ranked DFEI. Keep in mind that those numbers are adjusted for SoS. 2012 would be the year that the attrition from the 09 and 10 classes that you say didn't happen and doesn't matter would begin to have it's impact.

Stoops took over the team that Joker left with the 105 OFEI and 117 DFEI rankings, and in year one had the OFEI and DFEI rankings at 69th and 104th respectively. Those are improvements of 36 and 13 spots. The following year OFEI was ranked 75th and DFEI ranked 82nd. The offense took a small step back, but overall the OFEI and DFEI rankings were up 30 and 35 spots respectively from when took over.

Strong took over a UofL team ranked 82nd and 81st in OFEI and DFEI. In his first year those rankings climbed 34 and 37 spots. His second year they climbed an additional 9 and 6 spots, meaning both rankings had climbed 43 spots in his two years. I'd say that's pretty comparable to the job Stoops is doing considering the rosters they inherited.

Just for fun I looked at Petrino's first year at UofL this time around. He took over a team ranked 25th in OFEI and 21st in DFEI. At the end of his first season the OFEI had fallen to 51st, but the DFEI had risen to 6th. It's funny go me that you have bashed on Stoops for supposedly being a defensive guy and the numbers you use not supporting defensive improvement, while Petrino is an offensive guy but it regressed under him in year one.
 
[ football outsiders.com:



When comparing Stoops and Strong you can't just look at the number of spots moved up to say they comparable. Its a lot easier to go from 117 to 82 than it is to go from 82 to 39. Look at the pct change in position. Stoops has raised both the offensive and defensive FEI roughly 29 % while Strong showed a 53% improvement in FEI for both.
 
teamcanada said:
[ football outsiders.com:



When comparing Stoops and Strong you can't just look at the number of spots moved up to say they comparable. Its a lot easier to go from 117 to 82 than it is to go from 82 to 39. Look at the pct change in position. Stoops has raised both the offensive and defensive FEI roughly 29 % while Strong showed a 53% improvement in FEI for both.
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Why would you place a higher value on moving up one spot vs the other? Would you also say that the offense's regression under Petrino is more severe than it looks based just on looking at the spots it's rankings fell?

Whether or not you choose to do so, Stoops started in a much worse position than Strong did, with a worse roster. I'm not saying Stoops is even a good coach, just that there are metrics showing he has improved UK in ways other than wins, which many attribute to a softer schedule.

IMO, two seasons isn't enough to judge any coach taking over a program. I can posts lists of coaches that many consider great that had no improvement, or even regression based on various numbers in their first two years at a new program.
 
Global Havok said:
Why would you place a higher value on moving up one spot vs the other? Would you also say that the offense's regression under Petrino is more severe than it looks based just on looking at the spots it's rankings fell?

Whether or not you choose to do so, Stoops started in a much worse position than Strong did, with a worse roster. I'm not saying Stoops is even a good coach, just that there are metrics showing he has improved UK in ways other than wins, which many attribute to a softer schedule.

IMO, two seasons isn't enough to judge any coach taking over a program. I can posts lists of coaches that many consider great that had no improvement, or even regression based on various numbers in their first two years at a new program.
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Louisville's roster and culture were at rock bottom when Strong took over from Kragthorpe so Stoops didn't inherit anything worse than Strong. As for trying to quantify improvement under you method if you move from 100 to 98 that would look twice as much better than moving from 10 to 9. Using percentages would show a 2 % improvement vs a 10 % improvement in rankings. What you saw out of Petrino's offense last year was a combination of him knowing that he had the defense who could win games and a lack of confidence in his QB's executing, so you did not see much risk taking, ie he was satisfied to punt a lot of the time instead of going for it because he was pretty sure his defense would hold. I think this year you will see a much improved offense because the QB's have been in the system for a full year and he has more confidence in taking the reins off it. To be honest I have not been impressed with Stoops ability for game management or having his team prepared to play every week.
 
zipp said:
Like I said, I will (and have) put up a pretty good counterargument to that. Stupes is basically running in place. Suggest you start another thread on the topic if you wanna have that debate again.

He inherited a WINNING team from Morriss with illegally recruited players. And you talk "half the story"? :)

Joker went to a bowl his first year. When U of L beat him the following year--something K-rag couldn't do with Pappaw--LPT wasn't bowl eligible. Otherwise, Pappaw and Joker were equivalent.

And Stupes has won seven games his first two years, the same number that Joker won the two prior. If Stupes doesn't make a bowl game this year--not at all a sure thing--Joker's record (games won) the three years he was coach will be better than Stupes'. Amazing and un-skewed stats.

Petrino could have taken Pappaw's players and whooped that old a$$ just the same. You can attack Petrino's character as many try to do. Criticizing his coaching--along with Jurich's performance--are simply efforts that make you look bad.

LPT Football: We're good at looking bad...
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And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. It's all speculation. UK was hit hard the first year Brooks was here, you can't compare wins and losses from then to when joker took over. It was two different scenarios. And Brooks handled Petrino at Arkansas, what makes you think with all things even it would've been different?

Jokers teams continually lost more games each year, Brooks teams continually improved. How can you even argue that point?

It's mind numbing
 
Global Havok said:
...Just for fun I looked at Petrino's first year at UofL this time around. He took over a team ranked 25th in OFEI and 21st in DFEI. At the end of his first season the OFEI had fallen to 51st, but the DFEI had risen to 6th. It's funny go me that you have bashed on Stoops for supposedly being a defensive guy and the numbers you use not supporting defensive improvement, while Petrino is an offensive guy but it regressed under him in year one.
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"Just for fun", would you have liked to see how U of L would have performed under Petrino with Teddy Bridgewater still at QB? I know a lot of U of L fans who would. I mean, is there any doubt??

LPT Football: We have enough trouble with U of L...
 
zipp said:
"Just for fun", would you have liked to see how U of L would have performed under Petrino with Teddy Bridgewater still at QB? I know a lot of U of L fans who would. I mean, is there any doubt??

LPT Football: We have enough trouble with U of L...
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That would've been something to see. Though, it does sound like you're giving Petrino a pass for the offensive regression because he didn't have experienced talent at the QB position, which is pretty much what I've been saying about the UK roster.
 
UK football. Always about NEXT YEAR. You would never know they are on a six game losing streak by the eternal optimism and short memories
 
Global Havok said:
Here's some stats for you from football outsiders.com:

Joker took over a team that had the 53rd Offensive FEI, and the 54th ranked Defensive FEI in 2009. By 2012 those rankings had fallen to the 105th ranked OFEI and the 117th ranked DFEI. Keep in mind that those numbers are adjusted for SoS...

Stoops took over the team that Joker left with the 105 OFEI and 117 DFEI rankings, and in year one had the OFEI and DFEI rankings at 69th and 104th respectively. Those are improvements of 36 and 13 spots. The following year OFEI was ranked 75th and DFEI ranked 82nd. The offense took a small step back, but overall the OFEI and DFEI rankings were up 30 and 35 spots respectively from when took over...
Click to expand...
I have no idea who "football outsiders.com" is, and I don't know why you'd go to an obscure source when the ncaa.com site has all the stats you need...

In terms of Total Defense--yardage allowed, LPT has averaged:
  • 417 ypg under Stupes.
  • 374 ypg under Joker. (Lower is obviously better.)
  • 386 ypg under Brooks over his final four years. I selected his best years at LPT.
These numbers are not adjusted for SOS. But if you're gonna tell me that Stupes has played a tougher schedule in the dumpster fire that is currently the SEC East, your fan delusion is officially pegged.

And yes, I make a big deal out of those results considering the fact the Stupes is an ex-D coord. Would be analogous to Charlie Strong fielding poor defenses at U of L.

LPT Football: That's because we're an Air Raid...
 
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Global Havok said:
That would've been something to see. Though, it does sound like you're giving Petrino a pass for the offensive regression because he didn't have experienced talent at the QB position, which is pretty much what I've been saying about the UK roster.
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I'm not doing anything other than declaring an attempt at a comparison of U of L offenses with and without Bridgewater bull$hit.

Esp. since Petrino has otherwise proven his offensive coaching acumen here and elsewhere. And that I don't need an LPT fan's testimony on that particular subject.

LPT Football: Experts at everything, practitioners of nothing...
 
UK fans are forever smack talking schedules. Last year, Louisville was 5-3 against top 50 opponents, while Kentucky was 1-7. Louisville was 7-4 against top 100 opponents. Kentucky was 1-7. That does not seem like a closing of the gap to me. Kentucky only has three opponents outside the top 100 in 2015. They are going to need to show some improvement, no doubt.
 
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Only in a UK fan's mind is Petrino an unproven hack. "Brooks handled Petrino"! You yayhoos slay me.
 
teamcanada said:
Brooks beat Petrino 21-20 in Petrino's first year at Arkansas. Not exactly handling him.
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And that was a fluke in which Petrino was "handling" Pappaw until the final minutes and one LPT guy--Randall Cobb--played hero.

Pappaw "handled" no one.

LPT Football: Uh, Kragthorpe...
 
Kentucky (5-2, 1-2 Southeastern Conference) trailed the whole game until Hartline connected with Cobb from 21 yards out with just over 2 minutes left. Cobb cut through the middle of the field untouched and Lones Seiber's extra point was good, giving the Wildcats their final margin. That was Brook's best team vs Petrino's worse Arkansas team.
 
teamcanada said:
Kentucky (5-2, 1-2 Southeastern Conference) trailed the whole game until Hartline connected with Cobb from 21 yards out with just over 2 minutes left. Cobb cut through the middle of the field untouched and Lones Seiber's extra point was good, giving the Wildcats their final margin. That was Brook's best team vs Petrino's worse Arkansas team.
Click to expand...

That wasn't Brooks' best team at UK. The 2006 and 2007 teams were both better.
 
Global Havok said:
...I was just pointing out that the UK team that beat an Arkansas team led by Petrino wasn't Brooks' best team at UK.
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Not to derail a good debate, but isn't that kind of a "which turd is bigger" issue?

LPT Football: Plenty of those...
 
HedleyLamarr said:
Looking at the Sagarin's final ratings, Coach Stoops is 1-17 versus top 100 teams in his first two years. Louisville is 11-5 during that time. Big gap.
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Just for fun I looked at the final sagarin ratings for last year. I only went to the top 30 because it shows the pic clearly.

UK played 7 teams in the top 30, they lost all of them, but Louisville played 3 they lost all of them as well. 2 of them handily.
The 2 teams played a close game to end the season, Louisville was a better team no doubt, but UK IS closing that gap, to say otherwise is to hope rather than fact.
 
Bill Derington said:
Just for fun I looked at the final sagarin ratings for last year. I only went to the top 30 because it shows the pic clearly.

UK played 7 teams in the top 30, they lost all of them, but Louisville played 3 they lost all of them as well. 2 of them handily.
The 2 teams played a close game to end the season, Louisville was a better team no doubt, but UK IS closing that gap, to say otherwise is to hope rather than fact.
Click to expand...


Bill we're, along with everyone else, are going to keep laughing at UK and its silly smack talking fans like you. Smart college football fans, NOT like you, watch the games and know what we see. And we're not impressed. In fact, your own fans are the only ones that do anything but laugh at your historically terrible program
 
CardFan1130 said:
Bill we're, along with everyone else, are going to keep laughing at UK and its silly smack talking fans like you. Smart college football fans, NOT like you, watch the games and know what we see. And we're not impressed. In fact, your own fans are the only ones that do anything but laugh at your historically terrible program
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Ok Cardfan, obviously i don't care what you think.
I'm simply pointing out facts. I never once said UK football had arrived.
I simply said they aren't far behind Louisville at this point. Not what they've gone historically, but right now on the field. You can choose to accept that or not, I don't care.
 
Based upon what? The moral victory last year? I guess "right now in the field" you lag behind WKU, amirite?
 
Riiight..it wasn't a moral victory, UK lost that's it.
As I've stated at least a half dozen times, depth depth depth and experience.
There is more experienced talented depth on this years UK team than there has been in quite some time.
If, and to me this is the big question Towles, who has all the physical tools can get it together between the ears then this year has potential for UK to take another step.
 
I don't know man. Not sure I'd want all that experience back after last season's debacle. I know, I know UL is the measuring stick and that's all you care about, but there are 8 SEC games. That dopey bunch will name a street after Stupes if he wins 6. And get a raise
 
Bill Derington said:
Just for fun I looked at the final sagarin ratings for last year. I only went to the top 30 because it shows the pic clearly.

UK played 7 teams in the top 30, they lost all of them, but Louisville played 3 they lost all of them as well. 2 of them handily.
The 2 teams played a close game to end the season, Louisville was a better team no doubt, but UK IS closing that gap, to say otherwise is to hope rather than fact.
Click to expand...
Bill, UK fan has nothing but hope. The same plan they've had year after year" decade after decade.
 
UL isn't the measuring stick, not even as badly as you want it to be. I would gladly trade a Loss to Louisville if in the same year UK finished in the top half of the sec.
Sure I have hope, given the improvement in stoops 2 years, the level of recruiting improving, the buy in from the administration. You're damn right I have hope. But it's not misguided hope, there's reason for it.
I'd be worried too if I were a Louisville fan, it's ok. I think the teams will go back and forth in the future.
 
Bill Derington said:
I'd be worried too if I were a Louisville fan, it's ok. .
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Only in a UahK fan's mind. And oh yeah we are absolutely your measuring stick. If we aren't, who is? Vandy? WKU? None of us are stupid enough--unlike your fans--to think you won't win again in this series, but my god when you do, you rubes will be insufferable
 
Bill Derington said:
cardfan, you bring nothing to the table at all. All this negativity isn't healthy man.
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For someone that doesn't care what I have to say, you sure do......care what I have to say. Stick to basketball. Football isn't your thing. Care to answer who the measuring stick is? It's hard to be anything but negative when discussing UK football. I mean you haven't been relevant for 65 years
 
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