Schedule next year

[Knucklehank1]

Keep hearing how the schedule next year is demonstrably easier but I’m not so sure (of course some will change because of transfer portal):

- replace Ole Miss with USF (much easier)
- play UCF on road (more difficult)
- replace EKU with James Madison (should win regardless but JMU is much better than EKU)
- replace Duke with Pitt as crossover (this is much more difficult since Duke was a dumpster fire this year)
- 50/50 type games (Wake at home, UVA on road, BC on road, FSU at home) so no real change there
- Two most difficult games (Clemson and UK) both on the road
- Easiest conference game - Syracuse is on the road and supposedly early in the season

 

[Rollem Cards]

JMU should be a worry for many P5 teams.

 

[Thecycle27]

Hard to say with player/coaching turnover. Could be easier or harder. We will see.

The thing I am watching is what they do on defense in the portal and with coaching. They have to make significant moves to fill the holes. If they can’t land a couple good corners in the portal then they are in trouble. That has been a problem position.

 

[Guardman]

Keep hearing how the schedule next year is demonstrably easier but I’m not so sure (of course some will change because of transfer portal):

- replace Ole Miss with USF (much easier)
- play UCF on road (more difficult)
- replace EKU with James Madison (should win regardless but JMU is much better than EKU)
- replace Duke with Pitt as crossover (this is much more difficult since Duke was a dumpster fire this year)
- 50/50 type games (Wake at home, UVA on road, BC on road, FSU at home) so no real change there
- Two most difficult games (Clemson and UK) both on the road
- Easiest conference game - Syracuse is on the road and supposedly early in the season

Hank, given the Cards' situation, the schedule seems more difficult to me. You've broken it down exactly as I have. I think there could be as few as 4 or 5 wins.... given the inability of the staff and players to perform well under any sort of pressure. I project no improvement in O or D or ST or coaching.

 

[Mayoman]

Hank, given the Cards' situation, the schedule seems more difficult to me. You've broken it down exactly as I have. I think there could be as few as 4 or 5 wins.... given the inability of the staff and players to perform well under any sort of pressure. I project no improvement in O or D or ST or coaching.

Once the variable of portal transfers both in and out come to fruition and the moves/lack of moves on the defensive staff happen or not...is when the definitive answer comes to light on this issue.

No further losses of personnel on the O line and skill players will be a huge positive on that side of the ball. So it remains the same or improves due to experience level driving stability and performance enhancement due to said experience.

The addition of portal transfers to the D in key positions of need will be very crucial to the success or failure of that unit.

Interior DL and CB/DBs/Safety are absolutely essential for any type of improvement on that side of the ball. No matter who is coaching them the talent must be there. If coaching on D remains status quo it is likely that unit will improve little or' heaven forbid' regress if that is even possible. My expectation of W's is reserved/delayed until this all plays out.

CSS needs to do some deep/heavy analysis of his staff and players this off season. I am always hopeful for the coming year....but this situation will require close monitoring for sure. The ball is in CSS court. Whole lotta of hope and trust in him for 2022...my prayers are with the team.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

Just looking at the schedule, it feels tougher overall. But I think it should be manageable.

I like that the 2 most talented opponents are on the road. That means 2 home games are against teams with more comparable talent to ours.

We should make a Bowl going against our schedule unless we're a train wreck.

 

[Morgantown Card]

I expect 9-3 or FARRR that sonofabeyitch

 

[nccardfan]

I expect 9-3 or FARRR that sonofabeyitch

What did you expect this year? Going to get more of the same.

 

[Morgantown Card]

What did you expect this year? Going to get more of the same.

I expected 7-5 this year.

 

[nccardfan]

I expected 7-5 this year.

Good, you’re happy!

 

[Morgantown Card]

Good, you’re happy!

LOL, well, I was fine until the spanking from UK. Here's my mindset: Like it or not, he's the coach next year so I'm choosing to be hopeful based on the relative youth of this year's team and the closeness of the losses. I'm expecting 9-3 next year, anything short of that will be disappointing and anything less than 8-4 should be grounds for firing.

 

[Knucklehank1]

LOL, well, I was fine until the spanking from UK. Here's my mindset: Like it or not, he's the coach next year so I'm choosing to be hopeful based on the relative youth of this year's team and the closeness of the losses. I'm expecting 9-3 next year, anything short of that will be disappointing and anything less than 8-4 should be grounds for firing.

Just curious, which 9 games to you think we win?

In my view to win 9 games would require us to win every 50/50 game, which would be great but seems unlikely to me.

 

[Guardman]

Cards will be DAWGS in at least 6 and maybe 7 games. And no way in earth can they beat Clemson at Clemson and Kentucky at Lexington.

 

[Knucklehank1]

At the QB position - starters returning: Leary (NC State), Hartman (Wake), Levis (UK), DJ (Clemson), Travis (FSU)

Pitt loses Pickett but has a good backup. UCF lost Gabriel to portal. Cuse didn’t have a good QB, UVA loses Armstrong which is huge.

 

[nccardfan]

LOL, well, I was fine until the spanking from UK. Here's my mindset: Like it or not, he's the coach next year so I'm choosing to be hopeful based on the relative youth of this year's team and the closeness of the losses. I'm expecting 9-3 next year, anything short of that will be disappointing and anything less than 8-4 should be grounds for firing.

I respect that view. I went to 4 home games this year. Much like what I saw in Krapthorpe’s 2nd year, I don’t expect things to change much if at all. We are only prolonging things and we will be right back we are now, except another loss to the kitties.

 

[nccardfan]

At the QB position - starters returning: Leary (NC State), Hartman (Wake), Levis (UK), DJ (Clemson), Travis (FSU)

Pitt loses Pickett but has a good backup. UCF lost Gabriel to portal. Cuse didn’t have a good QB, UVA loses Armstrong which is huge.

All that stuff is not as meaningful now with the transfer portal. Gabriel went to the portal because UCF’s quarterback finished the year strong. With a pretty good recruiting class, we’re not beating Malzahn in Orlando next year. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[Williedynamite]

I think next year it is reasonable that we should expect 8 wins.

We would've beaten Wake if not for a muffed punt.
UCF lost their QB and we beat them already
If we are concerned about beating James Madison, then we are in worse shape than any of us thought.
Pitt will be tough
UK will blow us out again
Clemson will beat us again
We should be able to beat USF
NC State will be tough

We are in year 4 of the Satterfield era. Last years team was young and next year they'll have another year under their belt. Plus Malik will be back. I think it's reasonable to think some of those games we lost last year in the 4th Q we should be able to convert some of those to wins. Especially since we'll have more experience.

I don't want to come off as a Satterfield hater. I know he had a difficult job in rebuilding our program after Bobby 2.0. But he's in year 4 and these are almost all of his own guys, We gotta start to see some results. It's become obvious at this point that Satterfield is still learning what it means to be a Power 5 coach of a team with high expectations. I think he's still determined to do things the App State way, and to prove that it will work in the Power 5. He's slowly figuring out that he's going to have to modify some of his core philosophies if he was stay here. The extra small fast lineman won't cut it at this level. A 3 man defensive front and playing 10-15 yards of of WR's won't cut it. Trying to field a team full of diamonds in the rough won't cut it. He's slowly figuring things out. The question is do we have the time to wait.

 

[ShortCreek]

Everyone wins at App State. Plug in and repeat. That school has decent facilities for their level, a very good/loyal fanbase and high expectations. Everyone who has coached there has been successful, that’s the thing that scares me about the Satterfield experiment. Tyra made two questionable hires with Satterfield and Mack. Not a Tyra fan, clown show.

 

[Thecycle27]

Hard to predict at this point. Too much roster and coaching turnover to really know what the future holds.

The one thing we do know is the defense has to improve drastically.

They need an infusion of talent. The back end was not good. They have to get 2 legit corners in the portals and maybe another safety. They need another edge rusher plus a impact DL.

They have to coach better. The thing that stands out to me is their blitz packages the opposing QB especially on 3rd downs could always get his 1st option. Happened in the bowl game late, Minkins gave too much cushion easy pass and catch. Since it happened all year long it is coaching. The scary thing is our DC is the cornerback coach….ouch. They have lost 4 transfers that ended up being starters at other power 5 schools. The scary thing is those players couldn’t get on field or played poorly, how is that even possible?

As of today I don’t see anyway they are that much better on defense to pull out wins against those returning QB’s. My opinion may change when we see what they add in coaching and players. Right now 7-5 or 6-6 seem about right.

 

[nccardfan]

Everyone wins at App State. Plug in and repeat. That school has decent facilities for their level, a very good/loyal fanbase and high expectations. Everyone who has coached there has been successful, that’s the thing that scares me about the Satterfield experiment. Tyra made two questionable hires with Satterfield and Mack. Not a Tyra fan, clown show.

That’s an interesting observation. You know who also wins? Whoever coaches at Xavier basketball…

 

[PushupMan]

We’re going to win a lot of games and a bunch of people on here will go quiet until we take the very likely losses at UK and Clemson.

 

[Morgantown Card]

I respect that view. I went to 4 home games this year. Much like what I saw in Krapthorpe’s 2nd year, I don’t expect things to change much if at all. We are only prolonging things and we will be right back we are now, except another loss to the kitties.

The big difference I see between Krag vs Satterfield is that Satterfield's teams are furious with their effort and do not give up (UK game aside, that was awful and I won't defend it). The Ole Miss game was over by halftime yet the Cards gave it their all with what htey had in the 2nd. The effort was there all season (again the inexplicable UK game aside). Satterfield's the guy next year....so young team coming back, close in the losses with this young team, I want 9-3 in 2022 in this horrible, horrible league. Going 9-3 in the ACC is like going 10-2 in the Sunbelt, except the Sunbelt is probably better in the middle.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Just curious, which 9 games to you think we win?

In my view to win 9 games would require us to win every 50/50 game, which would be great but seems unlikely to me.

7 Wins where losing is inexcusable in Year 4:
UCF (beat them in 2021 with a struggling young team when everyone wanted to bench Malik in a historic year & fire Satterfield, they'll have a new QB, and we take this one next year in front of a rowdy environment that will be fun to watch on TV - if you go to Orlando be sure to go to Islands of Adventure and ride the new VelociCoaster - it's the best coaster I've ever ridden, it's just ridiculous).
USF (child please)
JMU (probably one of the tougher games of my Wins, probably in for a dog fight here but we should and will win)
BC (Louisville should NEVER lose to BC, ever, don't care how bad we are, unless Matt Ryan is at QB)
Wake (we were close with a bad team in one of WF's best years ever, we have them at CS in 2022)
Syracuse (our 6-7 team beat them 41-3, seem to always beat them - will Babers last the season?)
UVA (we were close with a bad team and being ridiculously conservative cost us the win, they have a new coach, their 5,000 fans aren't a homefield advantage other than maybe lulling our team to sleep with the sleepy environment)

2 definite Losses (winning either would be a huge pleasant surprise):
UK (sorry, just being realistic - they are good now, like it or not, and it's at their place although that doesn't seem to matter in this rivalry - just don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining please)
Clemson (at Death Valley, no way)

3 Toss-ups (in a normal year, all 3 of these are wins, none of them strike fear and we need 2 of 3 to reach 9-3, and all 3 are at home):
FSU (truthfully this should be a W, but I'm putting them here because of their history and talent - will they FARR that Norvell sonofabeyitch before we play them? At home so I almost put them in the Wins - they are bad and as previously mentnioned the fanbase already wants to fire their coach after a single bad season - so I'd "bet" on a win here - see what I did there?)
Pitt (had a good year in 2021, we have them at home, they lose their QB, and they're Pitt, we always have a chance against Pitt, I dont' care if they're the "formidable reigning champs" of the mediocre ACC )
NC State (this should be a W based on what we're used to, but here we are, we have them at home).

This league is currently awful. Winning the American Conferences impresses me more than winning this pile of mediocrity (and yes rival fans that are listening, Louisville is part of that mediocrity).

 

[Knucklehank1]

Clemson - likely loss - .25
UK - likely loss - .25
USF - strong win - 1
JMU - win - 1
Cuse - solid favorite - .75
Wake - pick em - .5
UVA - pick em - .5
UCF - pick em - .5
Pitt - pick em - .5
BC - solid fav - .75
NC State - pick em - .5

I have over/under on wins at 6.5.

 

[Mayoman]

Clemson - likely loss - .25
UK - likely loss - .25
USF - strong win - 1
JMU - win - 1
Cuse - solid favorite - .75
Wake - pick em - .5
UVA - pick em - .5
UCF - pick em - .5
Pitt - pick em - .5
BC - solid fav - .75
NC State - pick em - .5

I have over/under on wins at 6.5.

I'll take pick em for 5 knuckles!!! and likely loss for 2!!!🤪

 

[Morgantown Card]

Clemson - likely loss - .25
UK - likely loss - .25
USF - strong win - 1
JMU - win - 1
Cuse - solid favorite - .75
Wake - pick em - .5
UVA - pick em - .5
UCF - pick em - .5
Pitt - pick em - .5
BC - solid fav - .75
NC State - pick em - .5

I have over/under on wins at 6.5.

I like my version better, haha. For better or worse, my and/or your opinion has no bearing on what will actually happen, and we'll see how it plays out. 9-3 is a successful season, I'll take 8-4, anything 7-5 or less shows that Satterfield in Year 4 is in over his head because this league today current state is worse than the C-CUSA that John L and Bobby used to win in - and that won't remain the case.

 

[Knucklehank1]

I like my version better, haha. For better or worse, my and/or your opinion has no bearing on what will actually happen, and we'll see how it plays out. 9-3 is a successful season, I'll take 8-4, anything 7-5 or less shows that Satterfield in Year 4 is in over his head because this league today current state is worse than the C-CUSA that John L and Bobby used to win in - and that won't remain the case.

I agree with everything you said

 

[2330859]

Satterfield has his deficiencies; none more obvious than his game day play calling; particularly in late game situations. Some of the issues are directly related to a combination of what he inherited in terms of depth and talent, but his own recruiting, at least up until this 2022 class, has been woefully undersized.

I truly hope he is not done with attracting some select Transfers from the portal, as we still have some serious positions of need.

Right now, I see 8-4. Hope for 9-3.

 

[WildCard]

I think next year it is reasonable that we should expect 8 wins.

We would've beaten Wake if not for a muffed punt.
UCF lost their QB and we beat them already
If we are concerned about beating James Madison, then we are in worse shape than any of us thought.
Pitt will be tough
UK will blow us out again
Clemson will beat us again
We should be able to beat USF
NC State will be tough

...
I don't want to come off as a Satterfield hater. I know he had a difficult job in rebuilding our program after Bobby 2.0. But he's in year 4 and these are almost all of his own guys, We gotta start to see some results. It's become obvious at this point that Satterfield is still learning what it means to be a Power 5 coach of a team with high expectations. I think he's still determined to do things the App State way, and to prove that it will work in the Power 5. He's slowly figuring out that he's going to have to modify some of his core philosophies if he was stay here. The extra small fast lineman won't cut it at this level. A 3 man defensive front and playing 10-15 yards of of WR's won't cut it. Trying to field a team full of diamonds in the rough won't cut it. He's slowly figuring things out. The question is do we have the time to wait.

Good post.

FWIW I feel pretty much the same. The bottom line here is the Appy State style of play is going to have minimal success against a steady stream of P5 opponents, even "bad" ones.

Peace

 

[Morgantown Card]

Basically, Satterfield's style is a very conservative, 3 yards & a cloud of dust approach with exciting, explosive plays from Malik sprinkled in. I'm going to contradict myself here - I'll be thinking "Come on Satt, have some balls with your play calling" and then homeboy do some crazy shit like go for it on his own 35 down 0-7 in the first half and turn the ball over on downs.

Also, 3 yards and a cloud of dust works much better with a Charlie Strong-type defense, which Satterfield doesn't have.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Clark announcing he is returning really helps.

A lot of these games are going to be close.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Clark announcing he is returning really helps.

A lot of these games are going to be close.

He and Malik definitely the most important recruits. Now we need another cornerback thru the portal.

 

[Knucklehank1]

The first 2022 poll I’ve seen is by Brett McMurphy: he doesn’t have UofL listed in his top 50. Clemson is #5. Wake is #9. UK is #23. In his 26-50 he has NC State and Pitt.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

The first 2022 poll I’ve seen is by Brett McMurphy: he doesn’t have UofL listed in his top 50. Clemson is #5. Wake is #9. UK is #23. In his 26-50 he has NC State and Pitt.

That feels fair. NC St returns the QB they seem to have a stable program. Pitt is a bit more of a wildcard they have the Southern Cal QB coming in with some pressure following Pickett and they lost their OC. Not sure if Addison is back either, but since they showed so well last season they kind of get a benefit of the doubt in the polling from now until week 1.

UofL has a hideous defense closing the season and just don't warrant any buzz. That doesn't mean they can't prove some voters wrong but they obviously need some dudes. Everywhere.

 

[EKYCard643]

Louisville won't beat Clemson.
Louisville will NEVER beat UK under Satterfield. Bottom line. It will take the perfect hire, 3-4 years to even compete with them. Handicap that however you want.

We will be dogs to Wake, NC State, Pitt. Thats 5 games where we will be dogs or will lose. Throw in the 50/50 games that we can't really be super confident about and you'll get a better idea of why I was arguing keeping CSS was an exercise in futility. Nothing he's done in the last 3 years would lead me to believe that he will exceed expectations in 2022 and fans aren't going to be happy with a 6 or 7 win season and another bowl nobody will attend again ....which is almost certainly where we'll end up. I will be stunned if he wins more than 7 games - the only thing that saves his job is a top 30 recruiting class.

 

[Guardman]

5-7

 

[Knucklehank1]

5-7

I think we win at least 6, but I think anyone who thinks 8-9 wins is in the cards is not facing reality.

 

[EKYCard643]

I think we win at least 6, but I think anyone who thinks 8-9 wins is in the cards is not facing reality.

I would like to see who else we add in the transfer market because if our defense doesn’t improve it really doesn’t matter. If we assume Monty and Clark are healthy and ready to roll and we don’t lose anyone else to transfer I would say 6 wins is likely if only because I don’t think we get worse and we lost every game we should have last year outside of UCF. I think we get thumped by Clemson and lose to UK by 3+ TDs again. They’ve lost Wandale but they’ve already had 2-3 guys on defense announce they’re coming back for a 6th year. That rivalry is officially d-e-a-d. Can not fathom how we ended up here but here we are.

 

[Rollem Cards]

I think we win at least 6, but I think anyone who thinks 8-9 wins is in the cards is not facing reality.

I’m not a sunshine pumper, but I would just as soon not face reality, than to be as constantly miserable as some on here.

 

[Morgantown Card]

I think we win at least 6, but I think anyone who thinks 8-9 wins is in the cards is not facing reality.

9-3. I'll take 8-4. Anything less then FARR that sonofabeyitch.