Big Picture for this Season

[davecmc]

We've had 3 great wins in the epic beat down at UNC, top 10 MSU in the rare close win, and the dismantling of top 10 Va Tech on the road.

We've had 3 losses we clearly felt like we deserved the whole time in UNC part 2, UK and Pitt on the road where we were down double digits the second half most of the time (even though we charged back vs. Pitt).

We've has 5 losses to excellent teams by small margins when we had 2nd half leads in:
Top Ranked TN
Top Ranked Duke
Highly Ranked Marquette
Highly Ranked FSU
"Good at the time" IU

The other 14 wins are solid vs ACC Comp and a flavored non-conf slate.

We've got 6 left. If we can finish 4-2, that's a great season with a team primed and ready for post season, even with its many shortcomings. Not just a whimpering afterthought of 'great we made the Tourney', but a legit squad ready to make a run and be feared. We're still here. We can compete against anyone. Be proud CardNation.

 

[CardX]

Cards need to be careful here and regroup. They were at 8 losses this time last year. Granted, there weren't many quality wins from the 17/18 team, but with 6 games to go, I'd say 3 more losses is the maximum they can endure before the Cards become a bubble team. They'd go from the first 16 in to perhaps the last 4 in. Beating Clemson is a must.

I've seen a lot of UofL basketball in my time. We all have. I do not recall a team folding under defensive pressure like that. 40 turnovers the last two games. Mack needs to tighten that shit up.

 

[KozmasAgain]

I don't know if the guard play can improve any this late in the season. Somebody posted yesterday the guards are what they are and there is no changing that now. What we need to do is come up with better strategy for attacking the press.

 

[Cue Card]

I don't know if the guard play can improve any this late in the season. Somebody posted yesterday the guards are what they are and there is no changing that now. What we need to do is come up with better strategy for attacking the press.

Got to give Sutton a shot at bringing the ball up when the press is put on and also put a saftey valve (Williams or Nwora) in the middle. Spread out the guards to the wings. At least Sutton is tall enough to see over most guards.

 

[shadow force]

Also have to make teams pay for putting on the full court pressure so that they think twice about it or call it off. You don't make teams pay for it then the pressure only gets turned up, like last night, until the team folds.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Just enjoy this season for the surprise that it is. The recent actions from the NCAA have not been encouraging. IMO, the punishment for the Bowen "stuff" while on probation will be extremely, extremely harsh so we need to enjoy whatever success Louisville has this season and especially in the tournaments. Get pissed at me for the message if you want, but I'm just being realistic.

 

[davecmc]

Cards need to be careful here and regroup. They were at 8 losses this time last year. Granted, there weren't many quality wins from the 17/18 team, but with 6 games to go, I'd say 3 more losses is the maximum they can endure before the Cards become a bubble team. They'd go from the first 16 in to perhaps the last 4 in. Beating Clemson is a must.

I've seen a lot of UofL basketball in my time. We all have. I do not recall a team folding under defensive pressure like that. 40 turnovers the last two games. Mack needs to tighten that shit up.

Agreed on the epic folding last two games, but not the margin to just “get in”. Even if disaster strikes and we go 2-4, we’re still 19-12 (10-8) with multiple quality wins and high NET ranking (Top 25 still with our schedule and that record). Committee doesn’t look at final 10 anymore, just overall body which is signicantly better this year than last.

 

[Louis III]

I said it 3 weeks ago....give me 20-11 and tell me where to sign!! No worse than a 6 seed and we are firmly in the tourney. Who wouldnt have taken that in October?

 

[zipp]

If this team makes the NCAA tourney--which looks like a sure thing at this point--Mack has done a good job coaching this team. I said that in the preseason, and the outcome of individual games doesn't change that. You can rightfully be disappointed in one game's outcome based on the job he's been doing to this point, but that doesn't change my overall assessment.

The last couple of games are examples of the difference between a good and a great coach. This team has demonstrated it has the talent and coaching to beat good teams, but those losses were systemic failures. Mack is a good coach getting the team to this point, nothing more or less...

 

[Louis III]

The last couple of games are examples of the difference between a good and a great coach. This team has demonstrated it has the talent and coaching to beat good teams, but those losses were systemic failures. Mack is a good coach getting the team to this point, nothing more or less...

And the difference of having 3 GT's, 2 transfers, and a kid recruited at the D2 level. Those guys coupled with Williams, Nwora, King, and Perry. I'll reserve my good vs great assessment after he gets some folks that fit his scheme.

 

[zipp]

And the difference of having 3 GT's, 2 transfers, and a kid recruited at the D2 level. Those guys coupled with Williams, Nwora, King, and Perry. I'll reserve my good vs great assessment after he gets some folks that fit his scheme.

I love Sutton and Cunningham, two of the guys are on your list and two guys adding great value to this team. Enoch and Fore have had their moments as has McMahon. We'll be fortunate to replace those first two guys with new players of comparable quality, at least right away.

I'm not grounding any optimism about next year based on incoming freshmen ranked 30-100...

 

[BPGhost]

We've had 3 great wins in the epic beat down at UNC, top 10 MSU in the rare close win, and the dismantling of top 10 Va Tech on the road.

We've had 3 losses we clearly felt like we deserved the whole time in UNC part 2, UK and Pitt on the road where we were down double digits the second half most of the time (even though we charged back vs. Pitt).

We've has 5 losses to excellent teams by small margins when we had 2nd half leads in:
Top Ranked TN
Top Ranked Duke
Highly Ranked Marquette
Highly Ranked FSU
"Good at the time" IU

The other 14 wins are solid vs ACC Comp and a flavored non-conf slate.

We've got 6 left. If we can finish 4-2, that's a great season with a team primed and ready for post season, even with its many shortcomings. Not just a whimpering afterthought of 'great we made the Tourney', but a legit squad ready to make a run and be feared. We're still here. We can compete against anyone. Be proud CardNation.

Good post.

 

[BPGhost]

If this team makes the NCAA tourney--which looks like a sure thing at this point--Mack has done a good job coaching this team. I said that in the preseason, and the outcome of individual games doesn't change that. You can rightfully be disappointed in one game's outcome based on the job he's been doing to this point, but that doesn't change my overall assessment.

The last couple of games are examples of the difference between a good and a great coach. This team has demonstrated it has the talent and coaching to beat good teams, but those losses were systemic failures. Mack is a good coach getting the team to this point, nothing more or less...

“Systemic failures” you say? I think a number of posters would enjoy having you flesh that theory out.

Don’t scrimp on the specifics.

 

[earsky]

Also have to make teams pay for putting on the full court pressure so that they think twice about it or call it off. You don't make teams pay for it then the pressure only gets turned up, like last night, until the team folds.

Agree.Attack,attack,attack

 

[earsky]

I'm not grounding any optimism about next year based on incoming freshmen ranked 30-100...

Maybe I'm not quite understanding what you mean by this. I thought the 30-100 was what you'd prefer to see in our program. They are for me.

 

[zipp]

“Systemic failures” you say? I think a number of posters would enjoy having you flesh that theory out.

Don’t scrimp on the specifics.

And I could add games to that list... Marquette and Tennessee come to mind.

Lose control, lose the game. Not much "theory" in there...

 

[zipp]

Maybe I'm not quite understanding what you mean by this. I thought the 30-100 was what you'd prefer to see in our program. They are for me.

Agreed. I don't have a problem with Mack recruiting guys ranked 30-100; in fact, that's where we should be.

I also don't place a lotta optimism in FRESHMEN ranked 30-100. AS FRESHMEN.

Depending on who leaves this year--and incl. seniors, I predict at least FIVE--this team could have better personnel than next year's team unless Mack is still recruiting grad transfers...

 

[zipp]

ears, my point is that we can expect next year's class to be comparable to these guys from the 2018 class rated at the same level...

25. Louis King, Oregon
51. A. J. Reeves, Providence
82. Devonaire Doutrive, Arizona
101. Gabe Brown, Michigan State
107. Dwayne Cohill, Dayton
150+ _________________

Many of these kids will probably perform in their sophomore and junior years...

 

[earsky]

Ok,got it.

 

[zipp]

This debacle will be ancient history in another month. Let U of L make it thru the first weekend of the NCAA tourney, and THAT will be the only significant entry in the record books except for the trivia section.

Fans get too caught up in the emotion of the moment like the UVA game last year which was just as gut wrenching. Yet, it barely gets a mention in 11 months--until the next, maybe greater debacle. One game doesn't move the needle for me in either direction...

 

[BPGhost]

And I could add games to that list... Marquette and Tennessee come to mind.

Lose control, lose the game. Not much "theory" in there...

More deflection.

Didn’t ask for additional games you feel fit your statement about “systemic failures” - simply that you expound on it with something factual that would give it credibility.

 

[Morgantown Card]

ears, my point is that we can expect next year's class to be comparable to these guys from the 2018 class rated at the same level...

25. Louis King, Oregon
51. A. J. Reeves, Providence
82. Devonaire Doutrive, Arizona
101. Gabe Brown, Michigan State
107. Dwayne Cohill, Dayton
150+ _________________

Many of these kids will probably perform in their sophomore and junior years...

Right, great class, absolutely. But these aren't one and done players coming in and will need developed. What Louisville is achieving now in this season is kind of what I expected for NEXT season (Top 25 team). I think we're looking at a Top 10 team the year after that. As I say this I am ignoring the NCAA dark cloud, I have a hunch that all of this is going to be ruined by their punishment - so again enjoy this year for the fun surprise it is.

 

[zipp]

Right, great class, absolutely. But these aren't one and done players coming in and will need developed...

The guy I was responding to said "new guys who fit [Mack's] scheme." That's maybe true but not sufficient.

They also need to hang around long enough, as you say, to be "developed". They're likely not good enough as a group to make any improvements next year...

 

[general knight]

Right, great class, absolutely. But these aren't one and done players coming in and will need developed. What Louisville is achieving now in this season is kind of what I expected for NEXT season (Top 25 team). I think we're looking at a Top 10 team the year after that. As I say this I am ignoring the NCAA dark cloud, I have a hunch that all of this is going to be ruined by their punishment - so again enjoy this year for the fun surprise it is.

You keep talking about the NCAA "dark cloud" The NCAA is helpless in the shoe situation. They are about to be up to their necks in litigation over their random and uneven method of handing out "justice" There is no way they are going to sanction almost every P5 basketball powerhouse, and they do not need more evidence of their randomness when it comes to punishment. That ship will just keep on going.

 

[Louis III]

I tend to agree with KS, AZ and a few others being in deep sh.t. One variable we have that they dont, however, is the fact we are on probation. We will have to wait and see.....

 

[BPGhost]

They also need to hang around long enough, as you say, to be "developed". They're likely not good enough as a group to make any improvements next year...

Nailed it! I mean after all , they’re only the #2 rated class.

Do you actually have any real basketball or sports knowledge? Given that exactly zero of your 41K posts have brought anything insightful about the games themselves - it’s impossible to tell.

Asking for a friend.

 

[zipp]

Nailed it! I mean after all , they’re only the #2 rated class.

Do you actually have any real basketball or sports knowledge? Given that exactly zero of your 41K posts have brought anything insightful about the games themselves - it’s impossible to tell.

Asking for a friend.

Tell your "friend"...

2018 Class Rank 25. Louis King, Oregon: 27 mpg, 12 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg
51. A. J. Reeves, Providence: 23, 11, 2, 1
82. Devonaire Doutrive, Arizona: 9, 3, 2, 1
101. Gabe Brown, Michigan State: 7, 3, 1, 0
107. Dwayne Cohill, Dayton: 15, 4, 1, 1
150+ _________________

This season, the first five on that list are averaging a combined 81 mpg, 33 ppg, 11 rpg, and 4 apg. Those are comparable replacements next year for Cunningham, Fore, Agau, Nwora, and Enoch. Maybe Williams or King.

In case you question whether those freshmen are facing tough competition for PT, the five teams they're playing on average #63 in the NET rankings, which is where Yale is currently situated.

You need to start hanging around smarter people. It might help you...

 

[DukefanKY]

I said it 3 weeks ago....give me 20-11 and tell me where to sign!! No worse than a 6 seed and we are firmly in the tourney. Who wouldnt have taken that in October?

I think you will make that 20-11, possibly even 21-10.
This team could EASILY only have 4 loses right now.

 

[BPGhost]

Tell your "friend"...

2018 Class Rank 25. Louis King, Oregon: 27 mpg, 12 ppg, 5 rpg, 1 apg
51. A. J. Reeves, Providence: 23, 11, 2, 1
82. Devonaire Doutrive, Arizona: 9, 3, 2, 1
101. Gabe Brown, Michigan State: 7, 3, 1, 0
107. Dwayne Cohill, Dayton: 15, 4, 1, 1
150+ _________________

This season, the first five on that list are averaging a combined 81 mpg, 33 ppg, 11 rpg, and 4 apg. Those are comparable replacements next year for Cunningham, Fore, Agau, Nwora, and Enoch. Maybe Williams or King.

In case you question whether those freshmen are facing tough competition for PT, the five teams they're playing on average #63 in the NET rankings, which is where Yale is currently situated.

You need to start hanging around smarter people. It might help you...

Once again your faulty use of hypothetical extrapolation has failed you. I really hope you haven’t tried to pass this garbage thinking off as any sort real statistical analysis - even taco college students deserve better.

Lol - “smarter people”.

 

[Morgantown Card]

You keep talking about the NCAA "dark cloud" The NCAA is helpless in the shoe situation. They are about to be up to their necks in litigation over their random and uneven method of handing out "justice" There is no way they are going to sanction almost every P5 basketball powerhouse, and they do not need more evidence of their randomness when it comes to punishment. That ship will just keep on going.

We were on probation and Jordan Fair is on tape discussing a wire to Bowen's family from Adidas, saying "we need to keep this on the downlow because we're on probation." It can't get any clearer.

Look what the NCAA did to Kansas, AZ and others are on deck. Look man I hope I'm wrong - believe me - but again the Bowen stuff happened while on probation and it's on tape.

 

[shadow force]

We were on probation and Jordan Fair is on tape discussing a wire to Bowen's family from Adidas, saying "we need to keep this on the downlow because we're on probation." It can't get any clearer.

Look what the NCAA did to Kansas, AZ and others are on deck. Look man I hope I'm wrong - believe me - but again the Bowen stuff happened while on probation and it's on tape.

Wait what did the NCAA do to Kansas?

 

[kentuckyshame]

Mack has way overachieved so far this year, we’ve played toe to toe with the best teams in the nation. The guy is a great coach, and will put an exclamation on that statement when he gets at least some of his own players here.

Sure the Duke game was a meltdown which Mack possibly could have avoided with more control of the shot clock when we were up 23, but there is no way of knowing for sure. He gets a pass in my book for the duke game considering our guards were terrified to even dribble the ball, and Duke is loaded with future nba stars.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Mack has done a very good job up to this point. The team has clearly over achieved. They weren't predicted to finish 11th in the ACC because voters hate strippers.

The Cards have very little depth and their guards are limited.

The reality is the Cards have very little business being in the game vs Duke much less controlling it. Duke's got 3 of the top 5 picks in next year's draft and another projected to go late 1st round - and they are being coached by a legend. Their guards are light years ahead of what's in the Louisville stable.

But the players don't know they aren't supposed to have much of a chance. They came in expecting to win and I think that's a credit to Mack. Now it will be interesting to see if they can bounce back, or mail it in. There are games left on the schedule that UofL should win. Let's see if they do.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

As far as next year goes - it is true we need to wait and see who is returning and who is moving on. A complete overhaul would lead to lower expectations. We just don't know what some of the current guys plan on doing - and they probably don't know right now either. At first glance it doesn't look like a strong NBA draft crop. Not that I'm a credentialed GM.

 

[Thecycle27]

Couple points
1) Fair is not on tape discussing Bowen it was a 2020 kid and no money every changed hands. There is a reason his name never came up with Bowen at the trial. The bigger problem is Johnson but there has been no movement on him by the NCAA.
2) Mack has done a good job border line great. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out.
3) Next year has the potential to be terrific. The have to get a grad transfer PG. They have to to Nwora and Enoch back if those three things happen they are a top 5 team. They can survive Perry and King leaving. Nwora and Enoch coming back will allow the freshman to ease their way into the program. Then by their sophomore year they are ready to be the guy. Then repeat the process.
4) I agree recruiting in the 30-100 range is smart. An occasional 5 star can cover for unexpected departures. With this strategy when players leave earlier than expected it is hard to replace if you don't have any impact freshman. I think Williamson and the big guy could cover if both Nwora and Enich left, but I wouldn't expect them to be better.

 

[Cue Card]

Couple points
1) Fair is not on tape discussing Bowen it was a 2020 kid and no money every changed hands. There is a reason his name never came up with Bowen at the trial. The bigger problem is Johnson but there has been no movement on him by the NCAA.
2) Mack has done a good job border line great. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out.
3) Next year has the potential to be terrific. The have to get a grad transfer PG. They have to to Nwora and Enoch back if those three things happen they are a top 5 team. They can survive Perry and King leaving. Nwora and Enoch coming back will allow the freshman to ease their way into the program. Then by their sophomore year they are ready to be the guy. Then repeat the process.
4) I agree recruiting in the 30-100 range is smart. An occasional 5 star can cover for unexpected departures. With this strategy when players leave earlier than expected it is hard to replace if you don't have any impact freshman. I think Williamson and the big guy could cover if both Nwora and Enich left, but I wouldn't expect them to be better.

Seriously doubt Nwora comes back. Enoch is probably gone too since he's already sat out and lost a year.

Such is life in NCAA basketball. If you get a player who is either NBA ready or becomes NBA ready, then it's a sure fire bet that player leaves college for the pros.

 

[zipp]

As far as next year goes - it is true we need to wait and see who is returning and who is moving on. A complete overhaul would lead to lower expectations. We just don't know what some of the current guys plan on doing - and they probably don't know right now either. At first glance it doesn't look like a strong NBA draft crop. Not that I'm a credentialed GM.

We had this discussion prior to this season... If Mack loses most of the contributors off this team, as I expect, I can't raise the bar any higher next year with a roster comprised mostly of freshmen. If THOSE guys hang around, I can start to raise expectations.

Mack's done a good job so far. I expected this team to have a shot at making the tourney. Assuming they get past this problem with the press, they're a lock to make the tourney. If they make it past the first weekend--Sweet 16--he's had a great year.

That said, one season doesn't make a coach great anymore than a game or two make a season great or disappointing. The season IMO is judged based on what was expected preseason, and a coach is best judged based on his body of work. I'm not moving goalposts with Mack, and I'm not forming premature conclusions...

 

[CardsFirst]

Couple points
1) Fair is not on tape discussing Bowen it was a 2020 kid and no money every changed hands. There is a reason his name never came up with Bowen at the trial. The bigger problem is Johnson but there has been no movement on him by the NCAA.
2) Mack has done a good job border line great. Let's see how the rest of the year plays out.
3) Next year has the potential to be terrific. The have to get a grad transfer PG. They have to to Nwora and Enoch back if those three things happen they are a top 5 team. They can survive Perry and King leaving. Nwora and Enoch coming back will allow the freshman to ease their way into the program. Then by their sophomore year they are ready to be the guy. Then repeat the process.
4) I agree recruiting in the 30-100 range is smart. An occasional 5 star can cover for unexpected departures. With this strategy when players leave earlier than expected it is hard to replace if you don't have any impact freshman. I think Williamson and the big guy could cover if both Nwora and Enich left, but I wouldn't expect them to be better.

Seriously doubt Nwora comes back. Enoch is probably gone too since he's already sat out and lost a year.

Such is life in NCAA basketball. If you get a player who is either NBA ready or becomes NBA ready, then it's a sure fire bet that player leaves college for the pros.

You may be right, but both Nwora and Enoch would do with another year under their belts.

 

[mr72el]

Seriously doubt Nwora comes back. Enoch is probably gone too since he's already sat out and lost a year.

Such is life in NCAA basketball. If you get a player who is either NBA ready or becomes NBA ready, then it's a sure fire bet that player leaves college for the pros.

I doubt we lose both guys. I’ll eat crow if I’m wrong, but as of right now I don’t think either one of them is going anywhere.They will probably go through the process this summer and get feedback but my guess is they’re both back next year.

 

[davecmc]

Big Picture Update:
I know it feels kind of doom and gloomy with the way we’ve handled the closeouts in the last 3 games, but with 5 games to go in a season with a brutal schedule and suspect roster.... we are #13 in Kenpom rankings after the Clemson win and we are one of only 6 teams who have the rare Top 20 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency. We’re here. https://kenpom.com