UofL and Back to the Future

[TheRealVille]

Back to the Future was not a sure fire hit project. The director reluctantly agreed to hire Eric Stoltz to play Marty McFly. The studio didn't want to pay more for Michael J. Fox who wanted the part.

The filming started and it wasn't long before it was evident Stoltz wasn't working out so well. They had filmed a 3rd of the shoot before they finally had enough. The studio said they couldn't afford a replacement and the cost to film all those scenes over again.

The production was about to be halted and the film was in jeopardy of never being made.

UofL is in a similar situation. KP is ruining the movie and the cast and crew are about to quit. Lost revenue and wasted money is a given either way, so a decision needs to be made right away on how much longer they're willing to go on losing.

The studio fired Stoltz, a nice man, but not the comedic actor the part needed. They got Fox on board and the rest is history. UofL has to fire KP now and somehow find that coach that fits what the game of college basketball is in 2023.

The point of this analogy is it's not too late to make the right decision regardless of how difficult it may be.

 

[Cardiac Red]

You seem to have changed your tune..

 

[TheRealVille]

You seem to have changed your tune..

Don't know what you mean. I did and do defend KP's inability to procure grad transfers, but I've been calling for him to be removed since the loss to Lipscomb.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

...UofL is in a similar situation. KP is ruining the movie and the cast and crew are about to quit. Lost revenue and wasted money is a given either way, so a decision needs to be made right away on how much longer they're willing to go on losing...

The problem is the outcomes aren't symmetrical. You're right there are costs on either side of the decision. But the cost to replace Payne now is less than cost to keep him.

And the reason why is obviously that his buyout is front end loaded. If you wanna rewrite history, you should be second guessing the people responsible for the structure of that contract when it was (or should have been) known that Payne's ability to coach was a total crap shoot. There was a much higher probability that Payne was gonna be totally inept than his buyout reflected.

He's clueless how to coach, but it's not Payne's fault that he wants his money. If we were in his shoes and our coaching careers were going down in flames, we would want that money too. And that's the very reason he's not being fired this year. We can't afford to...

 

[Cardiac Red]

And that's the very reason he's not being fired this year.

It may not look like a public firing but he's not going to be the HC here next year..

 

[OldhamCard335]

It may not look like a public firing but he's not going to be the HC here next year..

Agree. I just don’t see how you can keep any employee in any setting who has produced this sort of results after a year on the job, regardless of past experience. We fired Bobby Petrino late in the season when he had a better history and a better winning percentage (in the year he was fired) than KP. He’s missed on players and seems to still be missing on them. They are not in the greatest condition, as he promised they would be. He has not developed players and the players, according to KP himself, won’t do what he asks them to do. On what basis has he earned another year? In what universe do you keep a coach like this?

 

[davecmc]

Has a 2 win college coach ever returned? It’s just not something that happens. It’s not a shock that needs debate, just a fact.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

...We fired Bobby Petrino late in the season when he had a better history and a better winning percentage (in the year he was fired) than KP...

Has a 2 win college coach ever returned? It’s just not something that happens. It’s not a shock that needs debate, just a fact.

The issue is that various circumstances make most situations unique. Neither Petrino nor some anonymous "2 win college coach" were necessarily in his first year on the job. Nor were they minorities.

And if the parallel had a big buyout like Petrino, did the school have a lotta money in the bank to pay it? Petrino's did and Payne's doesn't.

I watched Year 1 of the K-rag debacle here, and plenty of fans demanded we cut him loose and not delay the inevitable. A white guy will little or no local support outside football and a small buyout. And hired by an AD who ran his kingdom pretty much alone and with impunity. THAT pathetic coach got THREE years.

Analogs help but don't absolutely dictate a course of action...

 

[KerryRhodes]

The issue is that various circumstances make most situations unique. Neither Petrino nor some anonymous "2 win college coach" were necessarily in his first year on the job. Nor were they minorities.

And if the parallel had a big buyout like Petrino, did the school have a lotta money in the bank to pay it? Petrino's did and Payne's doesn't.

I watched Year 1 of the K-rag debacle here, and plenty of fans demanded we cut him loose and not delay the inevitable. A white guy will little or no local support outside football and a small buyout. And hired by an AD who ran his kingdom pretty much alone and with impunity. THAT pathetic coach got THREE years.

Analogs help but don't absolutely dictate a course of action...

Football is # 2 to Basketball despite being the bigger money maker-revenue engine.

Why delay the inevitable?
Fire him in March or December/January 2024 ?

Get it over with now, so UofL can finally climb out of this never ending stinking hole.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

...Why delay the inevitable?...

Because we've learned watching these mistakes play out that "inevitability" is almost never a consideration in these situations.

It's a reason loudly voiced by impatient fans who want a quick fix and aren't concerned about fallout from the decision. But it's never mentioned as justification by anyone else to move fast.

Kind of a shame because it should be. IMO the fans are usually right in this situation.

But it won't happen because of indirect, intangible, and inefficient factors pushing in the opposite direction. As much as fans pay a lot of the bills, fan impatience will get lip service but not much else.

If you want personal verification of that, contact Josh Heird privately and see what he says (if he responds)...

 

[2330859]

Heird, nor anyone else can talk about next season with any candor. I believe there are discussions already happening within Kenny’s inner circle about his future.

This is indeed a unique situation, and for that reason alone I expect a very unique arrangement will occur at the end of this season that will work out for all parties.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I held my stomach and queued thru the Eaves show podcast from yesterday. He was commenting on his own--no guests--but the essence was patience and players. As much as he's speaking the sentiments of the black community and former players, this ain't yet Payne's fault.

He also wrapped up his comments with references to the bleep show that Payne walked into. Don't you know that will talked up in a major way when the time comes to get rid of him.

Eaves is one of the last guys I consult for the truth, but he should be a reasonable gauge of that faction. They're not anywhere close to agreeing that Payne was a big mistake...

 

[Cardiac Red]

I held my stomach and queued thru the Eaves show podcast from yesterday. He was commenting on his own--no guests--but the essence was patience and players. As much as he's speaking the sentiments of the black community and former players, this ain't yet Payne's fault.

He also wrapped up his comments with references to the bleep show that Payne walked into. Don't you know that will talked up in a major way when the time comes to get rid of him.

Eaves is one of the last guys I consult for the truth, but he should be a reasonable gauge of that faction. They're not anywhere close to agreeing that Payne was a big mistake...

Listen to the one from today.

 

[glassmanJ]

i guess i'm the only one who thinks there's absolutely no difference between 2-28 and 10-20 this year. why did anyone think we were going to be good this year? what was your basis? that we sucked last year with subpar talent, couldn't recruit anyone due to possible sanctions, and we brought in a first time coach, yet somehow our fans expected an 18-20 win season. why? where did any of your confidence come from? not from last years team and how they finished, they were blown out of almost every game down the stretch and we lost our best players. so tell me, why does anyone think we were going to be good? and then why bail halfway thru when another coach would face the same difficulties? i guess i'm just dumbfounded and why anyone thought we might be good? and why anyone thought we could recruit with possible sanctions hanging overhead and no great NIL team set up? basically, KP gets until next january 1 to make things right.

 

[gift_pat]

Listen to the one from today.

For those who don’t want to take the time to hear him talk what’s the jist of what he was saying?

 

[Knucklehank1]

i guess i'm the only one who thinks there's absolutely no difference between 2-28 and 10-20 this year. why did anyone think we were going to be good this year? what was your basis? that we sucked last year with subpar talent, couldn't recruit anyone due to possible sanctions, and we brought in a first time coach, yet somehow our fans expected an 18-20 win season. why? where did any of your confidence come from? not from last years team and how they finished, they were blown out of almost every game down the stretch and we lost our best players. so tell me, why does anyone think we were going to be good? and then why bail halfway thru when another coach would face the same difficulties? i guess i'm just dumbfounded and why anyone thought we might be good? and why anyone thought we could recruit with possible sanctions hanging overhead and no great NIL team set up? basically, KP gets until next january 1 to make things right.

You are straw manning here. I don’t know anyone who thought we’d “be good”. It’s the fact that we are historically bad (not just in UofL history but power conference history). Yes, we did have a recruiting albatross that was more significant than Kansas, LSU and Arizona. But that shouldn’t have precluded UofL from addressing at some level serious roster holes. Other than Mike James there has been no player development and little rallying around the coach. Because of that it begs the question if the coach can develop and/or recruit a new group of players.

 

[TheRealVille]

I don't know of anyone who believed Louisville was going to be good as in a bubble team. I think most were hoping to avoid another losing season but no one I can remember was saying this team was good.

For me personally, I was thinking maybe 15 wins or 12 at the worst. Basically, just like last season. I figured we would blow a lot of games at crunch time and lose to the ranked teams, but play well enough to be somewhere in the middle of the ACC.

That however was wishful thinking as I watch a group of guys for whatever reason, looking like a group of guys not getting much coaching. I haven't seen a worse head coaching performance ever.

It's been so bad Louisville is going to set all power conference school records for the worst team. I've been watching college hoops for a long time and I've seen plenty of bad teams, but nothing like this Louisville team who has won just two regular season games and one exhibition game.

No one saw this coming and the reason was no one expected a coaching performance that looked like it was some fan out of the stands. I just find it impossible to believe the problem is the 8 or so who play instead of the one coach who runs the program.

I just want everyone to look at these numbers. Let's say Louisville wins at least one more game.

3 - 28

Who can with a straight face not lay that unbelievably, unprecedented won loss record on the head coach. Why would top recruits and top transfers consider playing for a coach with those results?

Players are going to talk once the season is over and they're going to tell it like it is with those players who contact them about KP. We all assume half if not most of the current roster is going to leave. Who can really blame them? They're being blamed for winning only three games. I know I would get the hell out of there.

 

[Cardiac Red]

i guess i'm the only one who thinks there's absolutely no difference between 2-28 and 10-20 this year. why did anyone think we were going to be good this year? what was your basis? that we sucked last year with subpar talent, couldn't recruit anyone due to possible sanctions, and we brought in a first time coach, yet somehow our fans expected an 18-20 win season. why? where did any of your confidence come from? not from last years team and how they finished, they were blown out of almost every game down the stretch and we lost our best players. so tell me, why does anyone think we were going to be good? and then why bail halfway thru when another coach would face the same difficulties? i guess i'm just dumbfounded and why anyone thought we might be good? and why anyone thought we could recruit with possible sanctions hanging overhead and no great NIL team set up? basically, KP gets until next january 1 to make things right.

I don't even know where to start on my response on this little gem. First of all good is not even in the equation. I don't know of anybody that thought this team would win 20 games.. I was 100% against hiring KP but I didn't even think things would come close to this bad. I thought we would be a 500 team and lose a lot of games by a close margin due to KP not knowing how to coach. I was thinking Penny Hardaway bad. Hell KP has made Penny look like John Wooden.

We did not get blown out down the stretch last year. A lot of games came down to the wire including a 1 or 2 point loss to Virginia if I remember right. Lost to NC by 7.

I'm not even going to try to answer your recruiting comment. I don't remember anybody cutting Mack any slack for having an NCAA cloud over the program. KP hasn't done jack $hi# in recruiting since the cloud has been lifted either.

KP is an epic failure. I don't see how anybody with any knowledge of basketball can't see how bad he is..

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

You gotta give Payne credit for one thing... He's put a lot of strange bedfellows in this space in the same bed. Many probably said it couldn't be done... 😀

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Trapped like Marty McFly.

I get it. No need to go through the details. But like the hire itself, there's a big difference between what people want and what they are gonna get.

I don't think they are throwing in the towel on it. I don't think he's getting an unlimited amount of time but they aren't sending him packing after year one. Expect a sequel and a threequel or beyond. Just guessing on it like everyone else.

 

[Cardiac Red]

I don't think he's getting an unlimited amount of time but they aren't sending him packing after year one.

He WILL NOT be here next year as head coach.!

 

[OldhamCard335]

He WILL NOT be here next year as head coach.!

Please, please, please be right!

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Listen to the one from today.

Just did. As expected. It’s everyone and everything but Kenny…

 

[Cardiac Red]

Please, please, please be right!

I don't claim to have a "lot" of insider info but the guy that told me we were going to self impose a post season ban a few years back way before it came out and no one believed it, told me KP won't be back next year.. I'd bet on him being right..

 

[TheRealVille]

As hard as it seems, we still haven't reached the bottom of rock bottom. That comes when we're 3 and 28 and half the players are in the portal. Unless KP has a bunch of very good transfers committed plus a couple high end recruits, I don't see how UofL can avoid removing KP. I can't believe KP would want to hang around anyway and endure the onslaught against him.

There would only be one solution and that is making the change, even if it means hiring some up and comer coach at Weber State. Maybe, give Scotty Davenport a two year deal to get the program back on its feet?

Then hire a big name and put this nightmare behind us. KP in only his first season is part of that nightmare, and the sooner we wake up, the sooner it's over.

 

[BrohmsNephew]

As hard as it seems, we still haven't reached the bottom of rock bottom. That comes when we're 3 and 28 and half the players are in the portal. Unless KP has a bunch of very good transfers committed plus a couple high end recruits, I don't see how UofL can avoid removing KP. I can't believe KP would want to hang around anyway and endure the onslaught against him.

There would only be one solution and that is making the change, even if it means hiring some up and comer coach at Weber State. Maybe, give Scotty Davenport a two year deal to get the program back on its feet?

Then hire a big name and put this nightmare behind us. KP in only his first season is part of that nightmare, and the sooner we wake up, the sooner it's over.

I agree in that someone like Scotty would be a solid hire. Unfortunately, I think that timing was a couple years ago. Either way, I think there would be quite the uproar if the next hire wasn’t a big name (no one local. We’ve tried it. It didn’t work).

 

[TheRealVille]

Uproar or not, UofL cannot afford a top coach. The purpose of the "soft" hire is to stop the bleeding. We're wounded and we need some R and R.

 

[CardinalDave]

The assertion that there were lots of fans who expected us to be good is absolutely false. Me and my group of lifelong friends who are fans
“ hoped” to be near .500 but most figure 3 or 4 games below. Even a middle of the road coach could have won those four one point games with a bit of endgame strategy and use of time outs. If this team were just 6-13 the conversation would be totally different and we would be hoping for 2 or 3 more wins and , while still some heat on KP, people would be more immersed in recruiting. But …. We did lose four 1 point games. Possibly only winning 2 games for the season. Historically bad for Louisville and Power 6 basketball.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

He WILL NOT be here next year as head coach.!

You could be right. I am guessing I have no inside info.

 

[KerryRhodes]

I don't claim to have a "lot" of insider info but the guy that told me we were going to self impose a post season ban a few years back way before it came out and no one believed it, told me KP won't be back next year.. I'd bet on him being right..

 

[beantowncard]

The problem is the outcomes aren't symmetrical. You're right there are costs on either side of the decision. But the cost to replace Payne now is less than cost to keep him.

And the reason why is obviously that his buyout is front end loaded. If you wanna rewrite history, you should be second guessing the people responsible for the structure of that contract when it was (or should have been) known that Payne's ability to coach was a total crap shoot. There was a much higher probability that Payne was gonna be totally inept than his buyout reflected.

He's clueless how to coach, but it's not Payne's fault that he wants his money. If we were in his shoes and our coaching careers were going down in flames, we would want that money too. And that's the very reason he's not being fired this year. We can't afford to...

Why do you want to abide by this contract but not others? In the artist’s world, don’t you just tear up contracts you don’t like and refuse to pay?

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Why do you want to abide by this contract but not others? In the artist’s world, don’t you just tear up contracts you don’t like and refuse to pay?

Sure, let's watch U of L try it. I can't wait to hear how they cut an AA off at the knees and are now stealing his money. I really hope clowns go down that path...

 

[Thecycle27]

We are judging him strictly off wins and losses coming off a crappy 3 years. Is that fair? For example the Bengals hired a guy that was never a head coach and his 1st year was 2-14. There was nothing in that year from an on field performance that made you believe he knew what he was doing.

The people that made this hire knew this 1st year was going to be tough. They aren’t going to change their minds now. They believed in his plan then and now. Heird basically told us that. We can start another thread next week it is not changing. He is getting a 2nd year unless KP decides to move on.