Analysis of LPT Basketball Series (1983-Present)
- Thread starter zipp
- Start date
And my usual retort... With almost thirty thousand posts, I can cover a lot of ground.
If Steelers ever puts me on a quota, expect to be more choosy about my subjects.
"Elite program", my a$$...
It's just semantics... I take it you understand my point.If I were you, zipp, I'd change my word choice of "outperform". "Outperforming" would seem to point to who had more wins. In this case, UK has outperformed Louisville. To be more clear, I'd change it to say "exceeded expectations".
But then again, I'm not you...
Funny how LPT posters wanna trivialize this analysis, but I understand why... The fundamental view is that LPT has the better team a clear majority of the time, 80% by my calculation. That's producing a "duh" reaction from LPT posters. But I don't believe that many in either fanbase would have guessed that sort of advantage. More fun for LPT fans to assign the series advantage to some definition of "owning" and "choking" and references that jab at Louisville fans.
Most of my analysis after-the-fact will reduce emotion if understood and accepted. Makes a loss easier to take or a win less fun. And since LPT fans have been on the winning end of this series two-thirds (should be more?) of the time, I'm throwing water on the average LPT fan's enjoyment. But in fairness, I do the same thing when U of L beats LPT in a sport like football or baseball..."Meh, it's just LPT."
A good comeback by someone might have been by what degree of superiority does LPT hold 80% of the time since that should matter... I simply took a binary approach--you're ranked one place higher or 20 places higher, you should win. Complex analysis otherwise. But to say my analysis is irrelevant is simply because people wanna enjoy the outcome or wallow in the misery. Those are emotional responses that don't go along with analysis.
And since our more emotional U of L fans are the ones usually wallowing in the misery, I'm the guy consistently asking "why?" ESPECIALLY when there's rational analysis to explain it. To make these games your personal cross to bear is on the cross-bearer, not the team, coach, or the rest of the U of L fanbase. If enough U of L fans can't deal with it, the series should be dropped. As far as the basketball postseason, it matters very little.
Before the wayward LPT fans start spewing " see, he can't win, now wants to cancel"... Regulars know I've said the same about all of the sports. If you can't enjoy the wins as much as you hate the losses, that's on you. The best prescription in that situation is not to play if it's pervasive enough among fans. I personally enjoy anytime that slapd!cks lose regardless of who administers the loss--it doesn't have to be U of L. And it takes me about five minutes to get over a loss since I don't live and die with the outcome of U of L games, as much as that pains LPT fans to know.
Enjoy the comments esp. if they're on point and not just the inane 'hate zipp' drivel.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Do you say LPT in real life instead of Kentucky or is it just an Internet thing? If yes) when you're getting your haircut does everyone in the room know that you are referring to Kentucky when saying that or do you have to explain it to everyone?
Will you count this year as Kentucky having the better team or Louisville? Vegas thinks you guys win so if we win that's an upset right?
Never mind, I think I found my answer (yes)...
Guys like yourself and John KBA won't have many issues with me because you're above the fray, too smart in reality. I enjoy interacting with John, and he would probably agree we do it at a civil level. All of my LPT and slapd!ck ish is directed at the mouth-breathing segment of your fanbase, which every fanbase has to varying degrees. (I happen to think the LPT fanbase is overrepresented, but I'm obviously biased...) And you're right to read past those references in my posts, as difficult as that may be, because they aren't directed at guys like yourselves.
Some of my stuff may be over the top, some is purely to annoy the mouth-breathers, but I'd like to believe that most is not run-of-the-mill hate stuff. I'd like to think that I'm above that too. And many LPT fans are too ate up to notice that I treat some U of L fans the same way. You might take it personally as an LPT fan, but you really shouldn't. Ask the mods...they get plenty of complaints from U of L fans about me too.
Glad to have your comments--esp. if they're pro-zipp!
"Elite program", my a$$... (...because the mouth-breathers expect it.)
Actually, the one that I do use that I find U of L fans like is "slapd!ck". More appropriately, "slappy" because the "d!ck" part is removed.
It's often used in a particular application--LPT fans decked out at U of L games and events not involving LPT. I think many U of L fans think "slappy" is the actual word without knowing its origin but created specifically for that situation. Funny stuff.
I've explained "LPT" to different people, but it's not going to catch on widely among the U of L fanbase. More the internet posting variety, but it's pretty entrenched with this crowd.
Good questions.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Another thing I'm wondering about is your end of the season ranking cornerstone. Whichever team is ranked higher at the end of the season "should" have won, you say. Does that account for potential injuries to major players (not that there have been too many, if any)? Does that account for major upsets in the NCAA tournament?
I realize that it's not a published analysis that took years to complete. But...seems that more needs to be taken into account when determining who "should've" won. I also realize, though, that end of the season ranking is probably the most consistent stat to look to for that determination. Just playing devil's advocate.
I realize that it's not a published analysis that took years to complete. But...seems that more needs to be taken into account when determining who "should've" won. I also realize, though, that end of the season ranking is probably the most consistent stat to look to for that determination. Just playing devil's advocate.
And that's not such a good question because it indicates that you didn't read (with comprehension...)
My OP clearly said I used the POSTSEASON ranking to dertermine the better and worse teams. That means you really can't tell at this point what tomorrow's win or loss means. For example, LPT fans would take a loss hard. But if U of L goes onto win a national championship, how bad would a loss in Louisville be? I can hear the LPT rhetoric now... "Well when they win a national championship, they might have the better team." But if U of L falters the rest if the season, LPT fans will reason they should have won.
Doesn't matter what Vegas thinks at this point as far as the analysis I did. And I think the postseason ranking will be the most accurate. I'm accounting for all games played. And the results of this one game won't much matter to where the two teams are ranked and how good or bad they are judged.
It wasn't a good question, but it raised some important points. So not bad.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Hey, no problem... What you're talking about is bias and "noise" in the data. You generally overcome that by looking at a lot of data and, if possible, applying statistical testing.
I hope everyone agrees that I didn't cherry pick data going back 33 years. That's the full data set except for the really old data that will simply support the same conclusions. ...That LPT had the better team and won most (all prior to '83) of the games. Obviously, U of L basketball was a shadow of what it is today going back 50 years. I wasn't waiting 33 years to make this analysis, but it's all of the data we have. If you don't start discussing underlying cause-and-effect soon, I don't know how long you have to wait.
I'm not a trained stats guy although I have some background. If a real statistician wants to explain how to test hypotheses involving the series results, please step up. It's above my pay grade to construct anyway, but I can probably perform the calculations.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Zip, interesting analysis. Most of the comments from BBN seem to latch on to the idea that UK has the better team more often than not. UL fans seem to take solace in knowing the Cards aren't choking under the bright lights. So at the very least you gave both fanbases something to feel good about. That is no small feat.
I think it would be interesting to repeat the analysis based on the Vegas line which accounts for the advantage of playing at home.
It doesn't surprise me that UK "underperforms" because your analysis glosses over the advantage UL has at playing home. UK had been better team on the road 9 times vs UL being the better team on he road 2 times. I think we can all agree that upsets are more likely to occur on the road, so UK has had many more opportunities to underperform.
Playing at home is probably worth about 5-7pts in college which can easily offset the advantage of say a visiting team being ranked 10 spots higher. Once again, UL has been in the position of being home underdog many more times than UK so there is a built in bias in your analysis.
I would like to see if your conclusion holds up if the Vegas spread is factored in. I doubt the overall conclusion will be significantly different. I do think the gap between UK and UL "underperforming" will shrink or flip.
I think it would be interesting to repeat the analysis based on the Vegas line which accounts for the advantage of playing at home.
It doesn't surprise me that UK "underperforms" because your analysis glosses over the advantage UL has at playing home. UK had been better team on the road 9 times vs UL being the better team on he road 2 times. I think we can all agree that upsets are more likely to occur on the road, so UK has had many more opportunities to underperform.
Playing at home is probably worth about 5-7pts in college which can easily offset the advantage of say a visiting team being ranked 10 spots higher. Once again, UL has been in the position of being home underdog many more times than UK so there is a built in bias in your analysis.
I would like to see if your conclusion holds up if the Vegas spread is factored in. I doubt the overall conclusion will be significantly different. I do think the gap between UK and UL "underperforming" will shrink or flip.
Stats hide the human aspect of the rivalry. You can toss around analysis and stats all day but you won't be able to throw a wet blanket on the fans and their emotions. You've been on a crusade to de value the rivalry and you are just simply failing. I also think that making a push to cancel the series is cowardice. I may be a simple slappy but I do believe more Louisville fans side with me on this rather than you.
First off, I'm generally in agreement with what zipp said about the back and forth - to me it's been very civil, and I personally gloss over the "LPT" and "Slapd!ck" stuff. If you can get past that zipp generally presents the side of a case he agrees with and will never back down from a position he believes in - so if nothing else, you get excellent consistency with him.
As to the rivalry itself, the last 9 meetings have certainly been an anomaly. I'll definitely accept the fact that UK usually had the better team - there's been some bad luck on your side (was it Gorgui that twisted his ankle stepping on a ball the day before the game vs the Knight team?)
Not sure about the end of season stuff - I'd point to 2013/2014 as a flaw in that logic, as we beat you guys in the regular season, then beat you again as a much lower seed in the tourney. So, since we upset you in the tourney, that means we should've beaten you in the regular season anyway (which we did,) but if you guys had taken care of business vs an 8 seed, then we shouldn't have won the regular season matchup, so that would then be considered an upset - I tried to punch this into excel and got a circular formula error
Let's just all hope for a good game tomorrow night. I for one think you guys are due and don't feel great about it.
As to the rivalry itself, the last 9 meetings have certainly been an anomaly. I'll definitely accept the fact that UK usually had the better team - there's been some bad luck on your side (was it Gorgui that twisted his ankle stepping on a ball the day before the game vs the Knight team?)
Not sure about the end of season stuff - I'd point to 2013/2014 as a flaw in that logic, as we beat you guys in the regular season, then beat you again as a much lower seed in the tourney. So, since we upset you in the tourney, that means we should've beaten you in the regular season anyway (which we did,) but if you guys had taken care of business vs an 8 seed, then we shouldn't have won the regular season matchup, so that would then be considered an upset - I tried to punch this into excel and got a circular formula error
Let's just all hope for a good game tomorrow night. I for one think you guys are due and don't feel great about it.
Using final rankings skews the results in your direction. No one, including UK fans, thought that UK was a better team in 2014. Even though UK went to the title game, UL was a better team throughout the year, UK was just better on the days they played. Nothing matters except what happens for 40 minutes between buzzers. The better team wins every game.
Who cares whose better or worse when they when or lose? Rankings don't mean anything, that's why we play the game. All this game is for is bragging rights for a year, and to some extent a better seed depending on how the season plays out. Good job with the numbers I guess, I wouldn't say UK is underperforming against UofL in any sense on the Bball court but you can make numbers say whatever you want. It's why we play the freaking game. If we win tomorrow no one is gonna set there and run it through there head about who was better and should have won or lost, the team that with the most points was the better team on that day. If UofL wins I'm not gonna set there and think about Louisville over performing because they were a lower seed, because rankings don't mean SH!T right now, they were just the better team on that day.
Not my fault besides there are fans of other teams there including ul. Most days in fact. It's also not about any particular mod. All sites are more fun when you get opposing fans imo. The people who struggle are the ones with so much sports hatred of thier rivals that it's unhealthy and out of the norm. You know you have one in this thread. I used to be all conpetitive and combative but as I got older and matured, I don't ever let it affect my real life. In fun sometimes but not when things matter.
Unless there's alcohol.
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Lol - the click bait value of the OP is off the charts. Like the veritable moth to the flame, yut fans just can't help themselves but answer the call in defense of big yut nation.
I wonder if there would have been as many responses if zipp would have produce empirical evidence that your women are ugly. Of course, that would be a less subjective discussion.
I wonder if there would have been as many responses if zipp would have produce empirical evidence that your women are ugly. Of course, that would be a less subjective discussion.
Sounds to me like somebody has an unhealthy obsession with Zipp, lol. You've got quite the Dick Tracy thing going on (emphasis on the "Dick"). Someone who describes another person as "eaten up", yet they can quote past posts like verses of the Bible. Now that's funny...I don't care who you are.
I don't understand some of your statements here, such as "your analysis glosses over the advantage UL has playing at home." Why doesn't LPT have that same advantage? LPT has had more home games in this series than U of L has had.
And you focus on favorites and underdogs... That doesn't explain how U of L wins more games than it should based on final rankings when the games are alternated home and away. That rotation effectively takes that bias out of the analysis. On the flipside, LPT loses games that it shouldn't in Louisville while playing as the better team; it "only" wins 7 out of every 10 games in that role. And U of L has won 100% of its games playing in Lexington as the better team, although that's only two observations (games).
I can repeat the analysis using a beat-the-spread approach counting as a "win" and otherwise a loss. Someone's gonna need to get me Vegas lines dating back thirty years however!!
"Elite program", my a$$...
Words that sound good, I'm just not sure what they mean... "Human side" and "wet blanket" mean what? That analysis doesn't matter?...Usually a position adopted by people who don't like the results or understand them. If you don't agree with my results, address them on point like some of your fellow fans are doing. Don't be afraid to admit if you don't understand them; we'll get someone to explain.
Cancelling the games is not my preference--only suggested with this series to help my fanbase deal with undue frustration. Game results barely get a reaction out of me. On the broader issue of cancelling ALL games, my preference is a sport-by-sport and game-by-game analysis of what U of L gets out of the games on a net basis, upside vs. downside. Uncle Adolph, Joe B., Cliff Hagen...those LPT legends never wanted these games, and their reasoning in its day was maybe sound. Losing more than you win. The same reason neither school plays EKU and Murray State home-and-away every year.
"Elite program", my a$$...
A stochastic study will always include data points that can't be explained. When that happens a lot, the results will be pretty flat (no variation) and be dominated by error, noise, and uncontrolled factors.
If you can find but a few examples in 37 data points, I feel pretty good about the results. Not to mention that there outcomes in the OP that make sense intuitively, such as the advantage for each team of playing at home.
Again, I want the truest measure of which team is better to compare results against. IMO that is a final ranking. Vegas, coaches, the media, no one has a good grasp on that in late December. We will know by season's end which of these two teams again was stronger. And that's the backdrop I want to compare Wednesday nite's outcome with, as the 38th data point.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Damn, I had seriously forgotten about all of that research. Like I told Skunk, you can do a lot with 30K posts. But let's hear some on-point rebuttals, if you still have posting privileges. (I hope so...)
- Let's hear how much more significant a regular season basketball game is vs. a football game.
- Let's hear how much interest there now is in a December weeknite basketball rivalry opposite Xmas TV specials and the Duke-Elon slugfest.
- Let's hear how a team ranked ahead of U of L by season's end 80% of the time wins but two-thirds of the games. (Which I still think is OK but nothing great...)
- Let's hear how well Patrick Towles developed under Stupes. And talk about the Barker kid while you're in the neighborhood.
- Let's understand how the best recruiter in LPT football history just eked out his first win against U of L, a loss viewed widely by everyone but slappies as a huge embarrassment.
- Find the quote where I said "no chance" in the 2014 NCAA tourney. (Good luck because I never--only in this instance--use superlatives.)
- And 'splain how a guy who's so eaten up by "LPT's dominance" is chronicled in the finest detail by a another guy who's not.
"Elite program", my a$$...
I'll only address your first paragraph. The "human aspect" is the intangible emotional sensation of the rivalry and sports in general. You know this is only sports. It's entertainment. For the life of me I can't understand why anyone would spend hours analyzing something like this unless you are getting paid. I want my team to beat your team and that's the end of it. That W is all that matters.
This is purely fun for most of us. You Zipp are the exception not the rule with your analysis. This isn't complicated. My team gets to play your team and we will all watch and scream and holler. It's a blast. A "wet blanket" is a metaphor for someone trying to douse our simple enjoyment with meaningless stats and numbers. Yes I believe your analysis is all meaningless. Wins and losses. That's what blows our skirts up.
You say people disapprove of your analysis because they don't like the results. That's not true. The only result that matters to most people is wins and losses and I personally love our lopsided record against Louisville as of late. I don't care about the crap in between. Don't presume I am stupid because I won't spar analytics with you. Your snarky comments are unbecoming.
I spend less time than you think because it's my second nature. I don't like my behavior to be unduly influenced by emotion and things I can't explain. So I try to explain what I witness. I don't agree that a rivalry is better because everyone acts crazy based on the outcomes. If you enjoy seeing crazy people or acting crazy yourself, that's you. A world full of crazy people is not a world I wanna live in.
Analysis doesn't necessarily diminish your enjoyment. It's a fact that LPT wins about two-thirds of the games in this series. What if my analysis had showed that LPT is better than U of L by season's end 60% of the time? That means your team would be winning MORE games than it should based on how good the two teams actually are. And by my reasoning, that would be a source of additional pride and accomplishment on your part. Only because the actual number flips the other way to 80% is it not something for a slapd!ck to revel in.
Speaking of which, I can't bring myself to address LPT subjects without snarky comments. You'll find I poke and jab less with your better fans, but there aren't many of those guys with whom you can observe me on better behavior. And I'm not sorry about that because you're uninvited and on a U of L message board. You don't get to set the tone of this debate anymore than I do, although you can keep trying. Just don't get frustrated.
"Elite program", my a$$...
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I'll say it again. The analysis ends with wins and losses. That's what history remembers. It's all that matters.
I never said one thing about people being crazy. Don't put words in my mouth to advance your narrative.
Almost game time and I just arrived in Nashville. Hopefully I can Find time to catch it live. Either way good luck card fans. No injuries and hoping for a good game. Merry Christmas. Go big blue!
"...intangible emotional sensation of the rivalry..."
"This is purely fun for most of us..."
"...we will all watch and scream and holler. It's a blast..."
"That's what blows our skirts up..."
"This is purely fun for most of us..."
"...we will all watch and scream and holler. It's a blast..."
"That's what blows our skirts up..."
You say potato, I say po-ta-to...
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Yeah he killed us all night. Pitino found the weakness with the pick and roll and exploited it again and again and again and again and again. I may have nightmares of watching us trying to stop that
Zipp you got a lot of hits here, I'm kind of in agreement with Kerry it's a weird thread but your mission is always accomplished.
I don't think Louisville fans have an unreasonable take on this series. It's not so much the head to head W/L record that frustrates UofL fans, it's the fact that UofL has played soft vs UK, and also just real poorly.
You can credit UK for forcing some poor play, but the body language of our players in this series has just been bad overall throughout the years. Prior to last night, even the game we won against them we were hanging on trying not to choke a big lead in a year UofL won the title and UK went to the NIT.
I don't mind the series, would prefer it to be a little more level, but it helps both teams. It's hard to weigh who it helps more. Going into the hostile environment @ Rupp is a good experience for the UofL team - no way to deny that. OTOH, their conference is just watered down so they really need this game due to the next few months being yawning opponents.
I don't think Louisville fans have an unreasonable take on this series. It's not so much the head to head W/L record that frustrates UofL fans, it's the fact that UofL has played soft vs UK, and also just real poorly.
You can credit UK for forcing some poor play, but the body language of our players in this series has just been bad overall throughout the years. Prior to last night, even the game we won against them we were hanging on trying not to choke a big lead in a year UofL won the title and UK went to the NIT.
I don't mind the series, would prefer it to be a little more level, but it helps both teams. It's hard to weigh who it helps more. Going into the hostile environment @ Rupp is a good experience for the UofL team - no way to deny that. OTOH, their conference is just watered down so they really need this game due to the next few months being yawning opponents.
hop, I think a lotta people are still in denial even though they CLAIM this math is obvious. My assertion is either it's NOT obvious--hence, my presentation of it--OR too many fans on both sides are delusional.
Assuming you understand the analysis and accept it for the sake of discussion, how can you say we have "played poorly" in this series? We have won a far higher % of games (34%) than our team has finished ahead of them in the rankings (20%). There's nothing about those stats that say U of L should be doing better in the HTH contests.
When I say "delusional", I think way too many people refuse to acknowledge how often LPT finishes ranked ahead of U of L. Survey U of L fans and let me know if they average 80% in their responses. Of course, true slappies will say 100% because in their world U of L is never better. The rational fans in their fanbase will also understate that number. And they reject the notion that they should be winning in this series MORE frequently.
It's crazy to argue against actual data and analysis that isn't all that complicated. We all wanna win more, but there are a lotta things that I want and will never get. It's better to analyze where you are and why so you know what you need to do IF anything...
BTW, you guys may question the 80% number? Guess what Wednesday nite's game result brought the LPT win percentage to under Pitino Lite? Yes, 80%.
Lite has frustrated U of L fans. What he has done is simply win at the clip that LPT should win based on where the teams historically finish in the rankings, relatively speaking.
I hammer on the guy incessantly because of how he finishes seasons. That's really what these coaches should be paid to do, not win rivalry games. In this series, Lite's winning at the rate that prior LPT coaches should have. And thankfully, they have not...
Lite has frustrated U of L fans. What he has done is simply win at the clip that LPT should win based on where the teams historically finish in the rankings, relatively speaking.
I hammer on the guy incessantly because of how he finishes seasons. That's really what these coaches should be paid to do, not win rivalry games. In this series, Lite's winning at the rate that prior LPT coaches should have. And thankfully, they have not...
So we beat you HTH 80% of the time and have finished the season better than you 86% of the time so far under Calipari. Seems pretty consistent. As a few others have pointed out, you've made a very convincing case that UK has simply been consistently and significantly better than U of L since Calipari got here. Thanks for the compliment.
Judging purely by your take that these guys get paid to win tournament games, not rivalry games.
Not quite... LPT finished higher in the end-of-season rankings for 28 of the 35 games (80%) in the modern-day series for which I can find data.
LPT has now won 25 of the 38 games since 1983, which is 66%.
The argument has been that LPT wins a disproportionate number of games. And that depends on your expectations. If a U of L fan expects to win 50% of the games, my response is "based on what?" That we should be as good as LPT? I should have more money and drive a Lambo with a hot chick in the passenger seat. Neither of us is living in the real world. An LPT fan like yourself might think 66% is outstanding; my reply is "maybe not when you've got the better team 80% of the time."
Fans on both sides can trivialize the info. That's fine if their behavior is consistent with the facts. But had U of L lost, my fanbase would be whining and LPT fans would be strutting. And neither side can do that legitimately.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Zipp, there are games where the losing team has a lot of positive takeaways from the game just lost. In this series, UofL has, in many instances in recent history, not provided me with many positive takeaways after losing the UK game.
Our players have had a tendency to play soft, miss shots they typically make (Blackshear breakaway dunk) , use incredibly poor shot selection, and even blow large leads in victory (Sosa buzzer beater, our title team with Siva). The game has just been excruciating to watch from UofL fan perspective due to things I've mentioned above. For me it's not the W/L bottom line, it's just a general lack of cohesion and failure to show a T25 level product I see from the Cards in league play against a similar opponent that's been baffling. If you want to point to the timing of the game being played within the season, I can give you that in many ways. But I don't give a 100% pass to the Cards.
The outcome of the annual game most years, if not all...isn't surprising to me, I understand the position of both programs. I've never accused the staff or team for "letting one get away" and had some unrealistic view of the programs either.
The game the other night - was unique not only because UofL won, but because the team actually performed at a fairly high level. We just have not seen a lot of that in this series from the Cards, in victory or defeat.
Just my opinion, bringing more of an admitted "eye test" philosophy than analytical approach.
Our players have had a tendency to play soft, miss shots they typically make (Blackshear breakaway dunk) , use incredibly poor shot selection, and even blow large leads in victory (Sosa buzzer beater, our title team with Siva). The game has just been excruciating to watch from UofL fan perspective due to things I've mentioned above. For me it's not the W/L bottom line, it's just a general lack of cohesion and failure to show a T25 level product I see from the Cards in league play against a similar opponent that's been baffling. If you want to point to the timing of the game being played within the season, I can give you that in many ways. But I don't give a 100% pass to the Cards.
The outcome of the annual game most years, if not all...isn't surprising to me, I understand the position of both programs. I've never accused the staff or team for "letting one get away" and had some unrealistic view of the programs either.
The game the other night - was unique not only because UofL won, but because the team actually performed at a fairly high level. We just have not seen a lot of that in this series from the Cards, in victory or defeat.
Just my opinion, bringing more of an admitted "eye test" philosophy than analytical approach.
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