When will this nightmare be over…

[TheRealVille]

I agree the buy out is too much but no one saw the complete debacle of this season. Most wouldn't be calling for KP's job if the team was 9 and 11, so there wasn't any concern with the buyout. It's only after nine 20 point plus defeats and a computer ranking in the 300's that leads to the possibility of firing KP after one season.

I don't think UofL was prepared for such a scenario. They figured there may be a couple lean years, maybe NIT appearances before a true judgement of KP as the coach would be evaluated.

But with this unbelievably unprecedented season, the huge buyout of 10 million dollars for a 2 and 30 result is highway robbery. I think we're just stuck with KP unless he bows out on his own. The worse case scenario has been realized so hopefully there will be no more ridiculous buyouts for unproven coaches?

 

[Thecycle27]

I think the experimenting with unproven coaches ends with KP. They have many reasons to never do that again.

No way KP and probably any coach was going to not take the industry standard in terms of buyout. It was a mess the 1st year wasn’t going to be good. No one envisioned this kind of year.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

As far as buyouts, I recall the last AD saying he was changing course. That might work if you’re Alabama in football.

U of L is not dictating to the open market how coaches will be paid and contracts structured. Try it on your own, and there won’t be many job applicants knocking on your door.

What I was talking about with Payne would have been less money for longer. Something like $5 million in years 1-3 and $4 million in years 4-6. In total maybe the same amount of money.

You’re not signing anyone with no buyout. With Payne, there was a higher risk he wasn’t able to coach at all. And it wasn’t gonna take you long to figure that out…

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

UofL decision makers are not concerned with this buyout amount because they aren't firing him.

 

[OldhamCard335]

please pray for KP to resign. we need divine intervention.

Yep, because Cincinnati’s AD ain’t walking through that door a second time!

 

[Cardiac Red]

UofL decision makers are not concerned with this buyout amount because they aren't firing him.

So let me ask you this. If (not going to happen) they bring him back next year and he sucks again (he will) are the going to fire him ?

 

[Thecycle27]

I think it is multi layered. The obvious answer is a losing record and poor effort continues he is gone.

It is hard to say because we only have this mess to evaluate. Hard to envision him recruiting and winning enough to keep his job after year 2.

Since we don’t know the future.

Option 1—Let’s say he lands the top PG and SG in portal this spring. Then the 2024 class is loaded with Flowers, Bryant and Knox. Then in 2023 you have a winning record in ACC but don’t make the tournament.

Option 2-he lands no one anyone is excited about in the portal or in 2024 class somehow figures out to make the NCAA tournament.

Which one would you prefer?

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

The real nightmare scenario is that Payne goes around .500 next year. Then what?...

 

[KerryRhodes]

The real nightmare scenario is that Payne goes around .500 next year. Then what?...

Then we might as well be Hoya fans.

 

[achilles992000]

next year will be another nightmare. we lose all our scoring from this year. Ellis, Curry, BHH. Withers might leave. the incoming class can't replace the scoring. Kaleb Glenn shot 2-13 in against top 20 high school team. he did hit the game winner but he wasn't the go to guy on his team. turned the ball over.

only other recruits are Curtis Williams and Koron Davis, an unranked Juco player with a high turnover rate.

and no point guard. KP struck out in transfer portal last year. so who will tranfer to a 2 win team?

 

[Thecycle27]

I disagree. Ellis is only one maybe BHH. Ellis is a PG in the NBA or a 2G overseas. He needs another year. He should stay at Louisville but could see him moving on. Him leaving wouldn’t be a killer but it would hurt offensively. He is terrible on defense but I think he gets frustrated and just stops defending.

Here is what I think would be good Lands, James, Ellis, Fabio, Williams, Glynn, Davis and Okafor. BHH would be good if he has the right team mindset. His problem he thinks he is a 4 nope he is a stretch 5, but he doesn’t do the dirty work. He is a more athletic Williams but doesn’t come close to him defensively.

Need minimum 3-4 legit transfers at guard positions. Need to be able to push James and Lands to the 3. It would help them a great deal especially defensively.

Depending what BHH does probably need a couple bigs.

The problem with this team is the bigs. I think they are the leaders flat drain the energy from everyone. They can all go and be replaced.

 

[shadow force]

I think it is multi layered. The obvious answer is a losing record and poor effort continues he is gone.

It is hard to say because we only have this mess to evaluate. Hard to envision him recruiting and winning enough to keep his job after year 2.

Since we don’t know the future.

Option 1—Let’s say he lands the top PG and SG in portal this spring. Then the 2024 class is loaded with Flowers, Bryant and Knox. Then in 2023 you have a winning record in ACC but don’t make the tournament.

Option 2-he lands no one anyone is excited about in the portal or in 2024 class somehow figures out to make the NCAA tournament.

Which one would you prefer?

Making the tournament is always better than not making it. Plus in option 2, that would mean Payne is definitely improving as a coach and the team has completely bought in and improved even without great talent.

Option 1 looks good at first until you realize Payne still can't make the tournament even with much better talent. Add that to this season and most fans are still upset and would justifiably want him gone.

 

[Thecycle27]

There is ceiling on Option 2. Not many coaches beat you with just x and o’s. At some point real NBA talent has to walk into the building. I prefer 2 because it shows growth and a future. That kind of recruiting makes championships possible. Not sure option 1 gets you there with any coach.

 

[shadow force]

There is ceiling on Option 2. Not many coaches beat you with just x and o’s. At some point real NBA talent has to walk into the building. I prefer 2 because it shows growth and a future. That kind of recruiting makes championships possible. Not sure option 1 gets you there with any coach.

If Payne is here next season and doesn't make the tournament, I don't think he would get a third year.

 

[camron]

If Payne is here next season and doesn't make the tournament, I don't think he would get a third year.

Give the man time It may take several years to turn the program around.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

If Payne is here next season and doesn't make the tournament, I don't think he would get a third year.

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

Agree. I think if he's near .500 he's getting a 3rd year. But I'm not like, sure of this. It's just this feeling I have about the situation. Keep us updated on those financials/ticket sales info as it trickles through this time next year. Let's live long enough to see how this turns out.

 

[Morgantown Card]

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

Zipp, you may as well say that Payne needs to get a Final Four next year for a 3rd year. 0.500 isn't happening. I predict we'll be starting walk-ons next season because we won't have any players.

 

[shadow force]

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

Do you think Payne would be fired if he goes anything less than .500 next year? Is close to .500 enough?

 

[KerryRhodes]

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

.500 then the Cards will DEFINITELY change their nickname to the Hoyas or Georgetown jr.
Anything less than an NCAAT bid means he's getting his walking papers.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I'm not predicting anything except that .500 will be hard for him to achieve. But it's a lot easier than going to the NCAA tourney as some are saying he needs to do. Those folks IMO are going to be disappointed when he comes up short and still keeps his job.

I said elsewhere that .500 means there or close... On a 30-game schedule, 14-15 wins keeps his job. 12-13 is on the bubble. Ten or less, I think folks in high places and the public eye will more seriously be discussing his buyout and negotiating it down. And if that sounds like "well yeah" to you, there will be plenty of people at that time talking about how ten wins is an improvement. That's the real nightmare scenario.

I agree 100% that .500 is lowering the bar in Year Two--as most of us dislike. But that doesn't mean it won't happen. What it means in a meaningful way is that our financial issues in basketball could very well continue at this level for a couple more years. If you're forecasting as I like to do, you have to bake that in...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Zipp, you may as well say that Payne needs to get a Final Four next year for a 3rd year. 0.500 isn't happening. I predict we'll be starting walk-ons next season because we won't have any players.

I don't know we might be surprised. He got this Okorfor (sp?) kid on the fly who looks like a decent player. And losing some players will IMPROVE this team...

 

[PushupMan]

If Payne goes .500 next year, he will get a 3rd year. Write that down, and I'll sign my name under it...

Agree with this … a 500 record most likely comes with an NIT bid (or some other postseason tourney) and will mean he gets a year three.

The bigger question to me is do we even get to that point. 2-30 or 3-29 is a very compelling argument for starting over.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Just an opinion here,

If they aren't removing him after a 2 win season or something close to that, which I don't think they are, then there's no reason to think of a mythical win requirement in the next season or even the seasons following it.

Just assume he's staying for awhile, and adjust accordingly. I suppose an identical season to this or close to it could put him in some jeopardy, but I still have doubts upper mgt has the chops to try and fix it.

It's hard to say how he feels about all this. My guess is he feels it's worse than he expected but he still sees it as some kind of process and he believes he can turn it around. And I believe upper mgt is going to give him plenty of time to see if he can do it.

Maybe ticket sales become a thing. I assume Zipp will keep us posted on all that and more.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Agree. I think if he's near .500 he's getting a 3rd year. But I'm not like, sure of this. It's just this feeling I have about the situation. Keep us updated on those financials/ticket sales info as it trickles through this time next year. Let's live long enough to see how this turns out.

...Maybe ticket sales become a thing. I assume Zipp will keep us posted on all that and more.

You may have missed these posts on the respective forums...

Basketball
Football

Or if you want anything more--if it's available--let me know.

My take on basketball since that's what this thread's about is that arena related revenues will be down for sure if/when Payne is retained. But it's not going to be the multimillion dollar disaster some predict or fear. Quite simply, we've already lost a lot of revenue. Some money and fan support are almost locked in, and we're getting closer to that point.

I'd be surprised if revenues are down more than $1-2 million next year at the arena which is nowhere near enough to make Payne's buyout an easy decision. Even next year it will be tough math...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

You may have missed these posts on the respective forums...

Basketball
Football

Or if you want anything more--if it's available--let me know.

My take on basketball since that's what this thread's about is that arena related revenues will be down for sure if/when Payne is retained. But it's not going to be the multimillion dollar disaster some predict or fear. Quite simply, we've already lost a lot of revenue. Some money and fan support are almost locked in, and we're getting closer to that point.

I'd be surprised if revenues are down more than $1-2 million next year at the arena which is nowhere near enough to make Payne's buyout an easy decision. Even next year it will be tough math...

What I'd really like to see, and I know you and Hank are always on top of it...

A comparison to ticket sales for 2022-2023 vs 2023-2024. When that data is available. I'm sure the sales will be down. And as you suggest, it may not matter because the losses could already be baked in.

It's a curiosity of who is tapping out after getting this tough season.

Going to review your links when I have more time thanks for posting them.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I think most people who wander into the arena this year would be surprised knowing that we were "only" down a half million in revenues by calendar year end. We were already 2-12 by that point...

 

[Thecycle27]

I don’t think effort can be a thing next year. If we see what we saw this year with their effort then he won’t make it. Effort is non negotiable in year 2.