I know that there is general consensus that you can't fire a coach in his first year, but in this case I have to question that. Would it really be more damaging to the program than keeping this guy around? Potential coaches are not blind, nor stupid. Despite what the national pundits are spewing, it's fairly obvious that Payne is not the guy. A good coach will still come here in my opinion. We've had nothing but pain for five years. Why not face up to our reality and rip the band aid off. Get a real coach and let's see some evidence of recovery.
Two Damage Scenarios
- Thread starter Tenncard
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But he's nurturing them and showing them how much he loves them.
The one subject none of these threads ever addresses is race. Rightly or not, U of L will be pressured NOT to do anything extreme until ALL other options are exhausted…
Ding,ding ding.
Everyone is afraid of being called a racist which will be introduced by the usual suspects if KP is fired.
It's not his race that makes him not a good head coach. He's just not ready to rescue a prominent program without any head coaching experience. It is so obvious to anyone who is watching.
I can’t wait to hear what the race baiter Ricky Jones will have to say if we get rid of KP in his first year.
They could work out a resignation agreement when the season's over if it ends up being historically bad as it's expected. None of us know how he is wired. He may have been planning an exit strategy while in Maui. I'm not even sure he wanted the job, none of us really know. Did he get pressured into it? He may have thought he was doing something honorable and just had no idea it would go down like this.
Or, he may just keep on keeping on with it. Then I dunno what happens.
Let's see what happens when the year is over and bump this.
Or, he may just keep on keeping on with it. Then I dunno what happens.
Let's see what happens when the year is over and bump this.
I have wondered if he really wanted the job or if he was pressured into it.
This is not going well on any level for KP. I really hope it gets better but it’s just not trending that way right now. There will have to be some serious discussions at the end of the season, if they are not already happening. If he is not able to land any solid recruits and add some talent from the portal…. scares me to think what year 2 looks like. I don’t even think we have seen the worst part of this year yet.
How many fans are left attending games at the end of the year? Season ticket renewals?
This is not good.
This is not going well on any level for KP. I really hope it gets better but it’s just not trending that way right now. There will have to be some serious discussions at the end of the season, if they are not already happening. If he is not able to land any solid recruits and add some talent from the portal…. scares me to think what year 2 looks like. I don’t even think we have seen the worst part of this year yet.
How many fans are left attending games at the end of the year? Season ticket renewals?
This is not good.
Losing to uk by 30 or 40 will really get the fans riled up. It'll get much uglier if/when that happens.
Hire David Levitch as an assistant. I have seen his teams at North Oldham play. Very well coached.
I might ruffle a few feathers here,but the guy didn't get a full recruiting cycle when he was hired and he was dealt a bad hand with this group of players that returned.
Sorry, but he deserves another year to see if this thing can go another way. Jmo
Now, tbs he really dropped the ball on getting a competitive point guard out of the portal. I'm not giving him a pass on that.
I really think he's here thru next year at least. Hopefully, he can bring in a few more coachable guys. I wish some of these characters on this team would man up...wouldn't hurt.
Sorry, but he deserves another year to see if this thing can go another way. Jmo
Now, tbs he really dropped the ball on getting a competitive point guard out of the portal. I'm not giving him a pass on that.
I really think he's here thru next year at least. Hopefully, he can bring in a few more coachable guys. I wish some of these characters on this team would man up...wouldn't hurt.
In normal times KP would definitely get a 2nd year after the hand he was dealt with, but 2022 is not a normal time. From the chilling line of Clint Eastwood in the film, Unforgiven, "Deserve has nothing to do with it".
Just look at the entire state of affairs in collegiate sports. 100's of players in the transfer portal each season, looking a lot like free agent signings. KP wanted his shot and he has it. But so far, it's not working in a big way.
The top level programs can't help but prosper with this "free agent" availability. Both football and basketball. So if Louisville hoops go 4 and 26 in this kind of environment, the head coach is going to have to face the consequences.
And those consequences are embarrassing low attendance at the Yum center and a fanbase demanding a change. There's just no room today for error, and waiting for the inevitable at the expense of the program, is just not a good idea.
Pull off the bandaid, it's full of blood anyway.
KP doesn't deserve this but life doesn't always go as planned.
Just look at the entire state of affairs in collegiate sports. 100's of players in the transfer portal each season, looking a lot like free agent signings. KP wanted his shot and he has it. But so far, it's not working in a big way.
The top level programs can't help but prosper with this "free agent" availability. Both football and basketball. So if Louisville hoops go 4 and 26 in this kind of environment, the head coach is going to have to face the consequences.
And those consequences are embarrassing low attendance at the Yum center and a fanbase demanding a change. There's just no room today for error, and waiting for the inevitable at the expense of the program, is just not a good idea.
Pull off the bandaid, it's full of blood anyway.
KP doesn't deserve this but life doesn't always go as planned.
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I felt this way before and I think Payne was dealt an unfair hand, but I never expected things to go this badly. Unless some kind of deal is made or CKP decides to step down, he will probably be back next season.
But if they do the unthinkable and have a winless season I don't see how there is a justifiable way for him to come back. The vast majority of fan support will be long gone. That doesn't mean he won't be back next year though even if that worst case scenario happens.
I've been known to bet a game or two in college bball 😅 and I've seen some teams over the years that I know couldn't beat five guys from my neighborhood in November and December. Couldn't tell you how many times those teams figured it out come January to cost me quite a bit of money 😥
Like I said, I hope for KP's sake this group will man up and be like one of those type teams and at least compete in these games coming up. Haven't seen anything yet to tell me they will. But I'm still hoping.
Again, absent a full buyout, Payne's not going anywhere this year regardless of his record. Deservedly or not. See post #5 in this thread.
I agree race will be an issue like always but man this sucks. If we can’t beat FCS school’s we won’t win one game the rest of the season. KP will go down in history of NCAA but not for something to be proud of. I don’t see how you bring him back if there is no fans in the arena. I don’t think you will have any fans after Christmas. I give Heird credit for getting Brohm but he really screwed up with Payne.
Assuming Kenny doesn't quit on his own at the end of the year, I think they will look at the context... The team finished 2-14 last year, so you can make an argument that this year is a continuation.
One reason they gave him a $10M buyout, they knew it was going to be bad this year and they wanted to remove firing him from objective discussion.
I knew KP wasn't going to be a great or even good coach, anybody can go to the premium board and check the achieves. I did however think he would be able to recruit and really figured with hiring Milt there was no way we weren't going to get DJ as well as a few other 5*'s. After all, all the KP supporters told us he was going to kill it on the recruiting trail.
Fast forward a few months, no big names from the portal, no DJ, no wins, and almost nothing committed for next year.. Don't even tell me about how he couldn't get any recruits because of the IARP ! it didn't slow Kansas down any and they were facing 7 level one violations. Hell it didn't even affect Mack, he brought in 6 guys last year under the same conditions. Scotty Davenport would be at least 500 with this same team.
Bottom line, he can't coach and he can't recruit well enough to hide it. Some of his buddies need to put an arm around him and tell him this gig is not for him and he needs to fade off in the sunset.. unfortunately for us all, very little chance that happens. I have no idea how we can afford not to fire him though when the YUM Center is going to be a ghost town if he's here next year.
Fast forward a few months, no big names from the portal, no DJ, no wins, and almost nothing committed for next year.. Don't even tell me about how he couldn't get any recruits because of the IARP ! it didn't slow Kansas down any and they were facing 7 level one violations. Hell it didn't even affect Mack, he brought in 6 guys last year under the same conditions. Scotty Davenport would be at least 500 with this same team.
Bottom line, he can't coach and he can't recruit well enough to hide it. Some of his buddies need to put an arm around him and tell him this gig is not for him and he needs to fade off in the sunset.. unfortunately for us all, very little chance that happens. I have no idea how we can afford not to fire him though when the YUM Center is going to be a ghost town if he's here next year.
Do you think or believe Kansas will receive the death penalty? Or Arizona? Or any of the other schools?
I agree with most of your post but for the stubbornness of not admitting there's a big difference with Louisville and the other schools that are under investigation.
Now you may believe that no way Louisville was going to receive the death penalty for being a multiple offender while on probation, but you should know that transfers and recruits were told by other programs that it was a good possibility it would happen. "Do you really want to be there when you find out they're suspending the program for a few years?", is what these players was asked.
These players had no reason to gamble, especially the grad transfers.
I think UofL, KP, and his assistants all assumed they would get at least a couple of transfers when KP took the job. So did the fans. But they miscalculated which now looks to be a trait with KP as a head coach.
We were shut out, stunning everyone and setting the stage for what we're seeing now. However, I cannot in good conscience criticize KP's recruiting just yet. I may soon but with no post season bans going forward, kids if they still don't come here, it will be due to KP.
And he would be gone for sure.
I agree with most of your post but for the stubbornness of not admitting there's a big difference with Louisville and the other schools that are under investigation.
Now you may believe that no way Louisville was going to receive the death penalty for being a multiple offender while on probation, but you should know that transfers and recruits were told by other programs that it was a good possibility it would happen. "Do you really want to be there when you find out they're suspending the program for a few years?", is what these players was asked.
These players had no reason to gamble, especially the grad transfers.
I think UofL, KP, and his assistants all assumed they would get at least a couple of transfers when KP took the job. So did the fans. But they miscalculated which now looks to be a trait with KP as a head coach.
We were shut out, stunning everyone and setting the stage for what we're seeing now. However, I cannot in good conscience criticize KP's recruiting just yet. I may soon but with no post season bans going forward, kids if they still don't come here, it will be due to KP.
And he would be gone for sure.
I think we basically got the death penalty since it took 4 years to hand down the findings. I wonder how long it will take for them to hand down the results on Kansas?
No I don't think any of those teams will get a death penalty and probably not much more than a slap on the wrist. If anybody thought we were getting the death penalty they were just paranoid, no way that was even on the table, if it was we at least would've gotten a year or two post season ban.
As I said it didn't affect Mack under the same circumstances. Hell he brought in 6 players and basically a new coaching staff. Others schools are always going to negative recruit against you about something, it's the nature of the beast you have to overcome it.
Since we got the all clear, there's players that were supposedly coming here that didn't, I can't think of their names right now but 2 of them went to Texas and one to NCST.
Recruiting doesn't even matter at this point, the man CAN. NOT. COACH..
Mack's last class, including the transfers, was in the spring of 2021 and the decision on any UofL sanctions wasn't coming down before the 2021/22 season. There was negative recruiting by other schools for sure but nothing was going to happen during the 21/22 season.
And again the talk of a death penalty heated up once the Mack dust up with his staff that led to his 5 game suspension. Pat Forde, here in Louisville wrote about it. Again, I knew as most did that wasn't going to happen but not the players who were being pursued by Louisville. The Mack violations were added to the investigation and the program just couldn't stay out of trouble.
Put it this way. If all of this happened a year sooner, those transfers wouldn't have came to Louisville. At least most of them.
And now once it was reported there wouldn't be any post season bans, recruits that Louisville are pursuing still looked at Louisville and their astocious start with KP a first time head coach, and knew they're not going to that dumpster fire. Why would AJ Johnson choose UofL over Texas? Why would Miranda choose the Cards over NC State? It wouldn't make sense to do so.
KP has to get this current team to somehow at least be competitive the rest of the season before any top level recruits will commit here. Why any Cards fan would think differently just makes no sense. The transfer portal is KP's only chance to get some players in here and turn this thing around. If that doesn't happen, he's gone for sure.
And again the talk of a death penalty heated up once the Mack dust up with his staff that led to his 5 game suspension. Pat Forde, here in Louisville wrote about it. Again, I knew as most did that wasn't going to happen but not the players who were being pursued by Louisville. The Mack violations were added to the investigation and the program just couldn't stay out of trouble.
Put it this way. If all of this happened a year sooner, those transfers wouldn't have came to Louisville. At least most of them.
And now once it was reported there wouldn't be any post season bans, recruits that Louisville are pursuing still looked at Louisville and their astocious start with KP a first time head coach, and knew they're not going to that dumpster fire. Why would AJ Johnson choose UofL over Texas? Why would Miranda choose the Cards over NC State? It wouldn't make sense to do so.
KP has to get this current team to somehow at least be competitive the rest of the season before any top level recruits will commit here. Why any Cards fan would think differently just makes no sense. The transfer portal is KP's only chance to get some players in here and turn this thing around. If that doesn't happen, he's gone for sure.
I think opposing staffs had plenty of material to negatively recruit against UofL last summer, the ruling announcement was coming. And when you have a staff change that can make it tougher.
It's probably not a coincidence they hit nothing on the Jr/Sr level out of the portal - but hit a FR... BHH was a FR from TN. Those older guys want to make the NCAAT. It is true UofL's NCAAT eligibility was a big question mark.
But there's no constraint for next summer. If he returns for year 2 he's going to need anywhere from 4-8 players from the portal, and/or some late signings from HS guys who back out because maybe there's coaching changes in other places (like Ree LSU).
If the challenge was eligibility last summer, the challenge this summer is UofL sucks and eligible or not they ain't a destination to choose because they suck. And if the HS class is a clue, he added one guy Williams, Lands was already locked in.
It doesn't look good. But things can change. It's been so long since we've had good news not sure what happens after we get some.
It's probably not a coincidence they hit nothing on the Jr/Sr level out of the portal - but hit a FR... BHH was a FR from TN. Those older guys want to make the NCAAT. It is true UofL's NCAAT eligibility was a big question mark.
But there's no constraint for next summer. If he returns for year 2 he's going to need anywhere from 4-8 players from the portal, and/or some late signings from HS guys who back out because maybe there's coaching changes in other places (like Ree LSU).
If the challenge was eligibility last summer, the challenge this summer is UofL sucks and eligible or not they ain't a destination to choose because they suck. And if the HS class is a clue, he added one guy Williams, Lands was already locked in.
It doesn't look good. But things can change. It's been so long since we've had good news not sure what happens after we get some.
If the team was showing steady improvement each game and keeping things competitive, along with some studs lined up for next year, I think most people's outlook would be more positive for the future. Though losing would still suck obviously.
However none of that is happening so far. Right now CKP and team are misfiring at every point. Cards are losing to the lesser teams and getting blown out by everyone else. There are still no guards, especially PGs, lined up for next year, just a couple more SF wing guys.
In other words there is seemingly no hope or relief for the future in sight right now.
However none of that is happening so far. Right now CKP and team are misfiring at every point. Cards are losing to the lesser teams and getting blown out by everyone else. There are still no guards, especially PGs, lined up for next year, just a couple more SF wing guys.
In other words there is seemingly no hope or relief for the future in sight right now.
We knew recruiting was going to be tough because of possible sanctions by the NCAA. Every KP supporter told us that KP’s strength was his recruiting and he could bring in the top recruits because of his connections. Evidently that was not true so no top recruits and no coaching.
This is the key to what happens going forward. Louisville has to look like a division 1 team and not some AAU team. Recruits who once were excited about the possibility of playing for a elite program like Louisville are no longer thinking Louisville is all that elite anymore.
I don't care how many connections KP has, if the product he is producing stinks to high heaven, recruits have many other options. That's why it's kind of amusing that Cards fans are bewildered when top recruits have said no to UofL. Why on Earth would Johnson and Miranda choose Louisville?
Maybe before last season started they still held the program in high regard, but obviously what they see now has changed that perception.
Forget about top HS recruits for 2022/23 unless things drastically change this season on the court. KP's savior will have to be grad transfers and truthfully, they will have the same concerns as the HS players.
It's not looking good for KP remaining the head coach.
Some fans have never come to grips with the tornado that destroyed the program and trashed the brand.
Pitino's players stuck through it and helped keep the program competitive and that might have been fool's gold in the long run. Hey we are Louisville we can survive this. Maybe we can't.
We would have been better off in the long run if all the Pitino players transferred out and we hit rock bottom right away. Instead of hiring Mack stick it out with DP or maybe see if Scotty could steer us through the dark times.
EDIT: We would have been better off if we just kept Pitino and TJ.
Now those kids are gone and it's just a rag tag stitched together where we lost half the guys off a team that finished up 2-14 and helped get the next HC who had his foot out the door officially out of town.
We're screwed.
Pitino's players stuck through it and helped keep the program competitive and that might have been fool's gold in the long run. Hey we are Louisville we can survive this. Maybe we can't.
We would have been better off in the long run if all the Pitino players transferred out and we hit rock bottom right away. Instead of hiring Mack stick it out with DP or maybe see if Scotty could steer us through the dark times.
EDIT: We would have been better off if we just kept Pitino and TJ.
Now those kids are gone and it's just a rag tag stitched together where we lost half the guys off a team that finished up 2-14 and helped get the next HC who had his foot out the door officially out of town.
We're screwed.
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Legit question. If Payne goes winless or close to it - and does so getting blown out more often than not - why I’m the world would any top recruits come to play for him?
At some point (probably already) coaches have pivoted from the negative pitch of “ncaa probation” to - why would you want to go play for a guy that can’t coach or, make you better?
At some point (probably already) coaches have pivoted from the negative pitch of “ncaa probation” to - why would you want to go play for a guy that can’t coach or, make you better?
It's easy five years out to say we knew there were going to be minor consequences to the adidas fiasco. Clowns in charge made a big deal out of it IMO in order to root out Jurich. And many posters in this space remarked that a total house cleaning should carry favor with the NCAA. I read it in print here many times.
Truth be told, no one knew or should have known what the outcome would be. I certainly didn't. No action should have been taken in the immediate aftermath NOT because we knew what the outcome would be (minor consequences) but because we DIDN'T know. As facts came out over the ensuing months and years, we should have acted rationally to deal with Pitino and perhaps Jurich.
No, we jumped the gun and killed ourselves in the process...
Truth be told, no one knew or should have known what the outcome would be. I certainly didn't. No action should have been taken in the immediate aftermath NOT because we knew what the outcome would be (minor consequences) but because we DIDN'T know. As facts came out over the ensuing months and years, we should have acted rationally to deal with Pitino and perhaps Jurich.
No, we jumped the gun and killed ourselves in the process...
Payne probably won't get top recruits if that happens, and we will delay the inevitable. But that's not enough IMO to shortcut the process of giving him at least two years to prove he can't get it done. It's the purgatory we're gonna have to endure...
Bottom line right here, I agree.
No matter how or why it's happened, the program is in ashes. And that burning didn't begin last Spring.
I think this is where a lot of people disagree, and I gotta admit, I don't know what the rest of the basketball community outside of the 502 thinks about it.
We hear ESPN nags loving on KP but they are being kind.
The question is, what does your pool of candidates think about you if you are getting rid of a HC back to back years. While I say Mack quit, that's not the narrative. So what HC that you want, is going to agree to come here next Spring, and then your wheelhouse... can UofL afford it anyway?
Circling back to my thought on it.
We're screwed.
This is so true and I was saying it then. I just didn't believe Pitino did anything that the FBI sting was trying to link UofL to. It made no sense.
What it was and I said it here then, was the FBI had a minor accusation on Louisville but due to the programs recent stripper scandal, made Louisville and more importantly, Pitino the cover boys for the FBI sting.
Louisville was a prop to advance media coverage of the sting.
And the University's reaction has been as disastrous as it can be.
The only way I can see is if we outbid other programs with NIL, starting with the Portal this summer. Kenny's rich friends need to put their money where their mouths were when they praised him and said they want him to succeed at this job. I'm not sure it will work but it's the only way I can see any recruits coming here at this point.
Am I making this up or, isn’t Payne on record as saying that he doesn’t want to / won’t use NIL to get players?
