Power Program = Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas, and USC.
Those 17 programs have accounted for 45 of the last 50 NCs won. BYU, GA Tech, Pitt, Colorado, and Washington were the others.
Would it change your mind if you knew that of the 25 coaches who've won a NC at a power program in the last 43 years, 19 of them won their first NC within their first 4 years on the job? Or, that of the 81 coaches who've coached at least 29 games for a power program over that same time frame, Charlie's record is the 4th worst (44.8%)? Or, that the worst winning percentage of an eventual NC winning coach through their first 29 games, was 65.5% by Bobby Bowden & Lou Holtz. They are the only two with a winning percentage below 69% through 29 games, who went on to win a NC at that school. And, 13 of the 25 coaches who won a NC at a power program were above 75% through 29 games. Charlie's winning percentage is over 20 percentage points lower than the lowest winning percentage of any NC winning coach in the modern era who coached at a power program.
How much more time does he need? For him to become a NC winning coach, he would have to not only defy history, he'd have to shatter it. The only coach with a winning percentage below 60% who turned out
decent was John Cooper. He lasted 13 seasons before eventually being fired. He finished his Ohio State coaching career with a 2-10-1 record vs Michigan, a 3-8 record in bowl games, just 3 conference titles, and 2 NC runner-up finishes. That's as good as it has
ever gotten for any coach that has started with a record below .600 in his first 29 games.
Texas doesn't need patience. You know everything you need to know about whether a coach is going to be a NC caliber coach within the first 2 years. Just think about it. 25 coaches at 17 power programs have accounted for 38 of the last 43 NCs. 19 of them won their first NC within 4 years.
Won NC in 1st year:
* Larry Coker
* Dennis Erickson
Won NC in 2nd year:
* Bob Stoops
* Barry Switzer
* Gene Chizik
* Urban Meyer (Florida)
* Jim Tressel
Won NC in 3rd year:
* Nick Saban (Alabama)
* Gene Stallings
* Lou Holtz
* Dan Devine
* Urban Meyer (tOSU)
* Barry Switzer
* Pete Carroll
* Lloyd Carr
* Les Miles
* Dennis Erickson
* John Robinson
Won NC in 4th year:
* Pete Carroll
* Urban Meyer (Florida)
* Jimbo Fisher
* Jimmy Johnson
* Danny Ford
* Nick Saban (LSU)
It's time to move on. We know everything we need to know.