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Random Thoughts About Next Years Team.

Strongtino

Three-Star Poster
Feb 8, 2010
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After a lengthy discussion with a UL friend yesterday and coming into work today and finding my schedule completely dead....I've been really looking at this roster and debating about next year. Full disclosure.....I think Mitchell is gone; there's very little incentive for him to come back. He's another one of those Pitino players who are great college players but because of size or specific skill set isn't going to tear up the NBA and be an all-star or a lottery pick and there's no reason for him to come back.

This team/roster has done a 180 for me in the last 2-3 weeks. 2-3 weeks ago, I was more confident Mitchell was coming back and I had absolutely no idea Jaylen would leave the program to play ball overseas. 2-3 weeks ago I would have argued until I was blue in the face that UL should be the #1 team going into next season. Now, I'm not sure they deserve to be in the top 15.

Without Mitchell (and Mangok) we lose the heart and the leader of the team. Without Jaylen we lose really the only "tough" player willing to bang and "mess it up" down low. Ray and Anas are pillow soft and easily pushed around, Malik Williams seems to be a soft, perimeter stretch 4 and Lance Thomas doesn't appear to be close to ready to contribute meaningful minutes as a Freshman. (I do really like Perry though) Without Mangok, Jaylen and Mitchell we lose 3 of our top 4 rebounders as well. So....as of now without grad transfers our lineup is looking like:

PG - Snider/Perry/McMahon
SG - Adel/Sutton
SF - King/Nwora
PF - Ray/Malik
C - Anas/ ?

So, that roster doesn't fill me with a ton of optimism. Who steps up to lead? I mean it has to be Adel, right? Snider has proven to not be vocal enough and neither is Anas or Ray. Speaking of Ray...he's a Junior now, the time for him living strictly off of "potential" is over. He has to be a factor, I mean 6 ppg and 6 rpg is just not going to cut it. He needs to put up 10-12 ppg and 6-7 rpg at minimum this year. Sadly, I think we've seen peak Anas..He's a Senior and every year he’s been here we say he needs to add weight and every Fall he comes in still needing to add weight. So he's not getting any bigger or going to drastically alter his game over the Summer We have 1 true Center on the roster and a bunch of perimeter oriented forwards.

Now, because of all this I'm assuming Rick is going to be running a different system next year...he has to. His best players are all perimeter oriented and the size he does have is light and lanky. Bottom line...next year’s success is totally up in the air. I think, much like this past year when Nanu made the unwise decision to leave early and robbed us of what could have been an elite level season that we are going to see the same thing happen because of Mitchell and Jaylen’s departure. It’s going to be a season of “what could have been.” As of now, 2017-18 will be a season of hope. Hope that guys take the next step (Adel, King, Ray) and hope that newcomers are ready contribute (Sutton, Williams, Nwora, Perry). I think what you see is what you get from Anas and Q and while I think there’s potential for a great season I think odds are, it’s a season where guys take steps in the right direction but not to the level that will make UL a title threat.

Its early, a lot can change, I know. This is just where my head is at with this roster right now. Whatever I was bored and this wasted like 30 minutes of my day. Mission accomplished.
 
A few more thoughts now that I've thought a bit more:

I will also say that the Donovan we saw the first half of the season is a future NBA star. The Donovan we saw in the back half - the one that fell in love with hanging out on the perimeter to take jump shots - may be set up for a disappointing career.

Also, there seemed to be chemistry issues when Q came back. The Q we saw in the first half of the season is an All-ACC player. The Q we saw in the back half - after he came back is a role player. It's possible that he wasn't fully recovered from his injury.
 
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After a lengthy discussion with a UL friend yesterday and coming into work today and finding my schedule completely dead....I've been really looking at this roster and debating about next year. Full disclosure.....I think Mitchell is gone; there's very little incentive for him to come back. He's another one of those Pitino players who are great college players but because of size or specific skill set isn't going to tear up the NBA and be an all-star or a lottery pick and there's no reason for him to come back.

This team/roster has done a 180 for me in the last 2-3 weeks. 2-3 weeks ago, I was more confident Mitchell was coming back and I had absolutely no idea Jaylen would leave the program to play ball overseas. 2-3 weeks ago I would have argued until I was blue in the face that UL should be the #1 team going into next season. Now, I'm not sure they deserve to be in the top 15.

Without Mitchell (and Mangok) we lose the heart and the leader of the team. Without Jaylen we lose really the only "tough" player willing to bang and "mess it up" down low. Ray and Anas are pillow soft and easily pushed around, Malik Williams seems to be a soft, perimeter stretch 4 and Lance Thomas doesn't appear to be close to ready to contribute meaningful minutes as a Freshman. (I do really like Perry though) Without Mangok, Jaylen and Mitchell we lose 3 of our top 4 rebounders as well. So....as of now without grad transfers our lineup is looking like:

PG - Snider/Perry/McMahon
SG - Adel/Sutton
SF - King/Nwora
PF - Ray/Malik
C - Anas/ ?

So, that roster doesn't fill me with a ton of optimism. Who steps up to lead? I mean it has to be Adel, right? Snider has proven to not be vocal enough and neither is Anas or Ray. Speaking of Ray...he's a Junior now, the time for him living strictly off of "potential" is over. He has to be a factor, I mean 6 ppg and 6 rpg is just not going to cut it. He needs to put up 10-12 ppg and 6-7 rpg at minimum this year. Sadly, I think we've seen peak Anas..He's a Senior and every year he’s been here we say he needs to add weight and every Fall he comes in still needing to add weight. So he's not getting any bigger or going to drastically alter his game over the Summer We have 1 true Center on the roster and a bunch of perimeter oriented forwards.

Now, because of all this I'm assuming Rick is going to be running a different system next year...he has to. His best players are all perimeter oriented and the size he does have is light and lanky. Bottom line...next year’s success is totally up in the air. I think, much like this past year when Nanu made the unwise decision to leave early and robbed us of what could have been an elite level season that we are going to see the same thing happen because of Mitchell and Jaylen’s departure. It’s going to be a season of “what could have been.” As of now, 2017-18 will be a season of hope. Hope that guys take the next step (Adel, King, Ray) and hope that newcomers are ready contribute (Sutton, Williams, Nwora, Perry). I think what you see is what you get from Anas and Q and while I think there’s potential for a great season I think odds are, it’s a season where guys take steps in the right direction but not to the level that will make UL a title threat.

Its early, a lot can change, I know. This is just where my head is at with this roster right now. Whatever I was bored and this wasted like 30 minutes of my day. Mission accomplished.
I'm not sure it's a given that Adel comes back. He can make a lot of money playing in Australia where his family now lives.
 
I'm not sure it's a given that Adel comes back. He can make a lot of money playing in Australia where his family now lives.

If we lose Adel we're in full rebuild mode. I think even with Adel we're a 9+ loss team...without him I'm not sure we make the tournament.
 
Ever since the end of last season the center position has been a big question mark for me. Losing Mangok is pretty big and Anas did not do much to inspire hope late in the season. With Mangok gone, the team lost the only proven big man that could hold his own and bang with stronger, larger front courts. I'm not sure Anas will ever be able to do that and if no one else can either, the team will be in for some long nights against certain teams. Now with JJ gone it opens up even more questions and leaves our front court thinner- pun intended- than ever.

The back court also has question marks if Mitchell and possibly Adel leave. However Q gives me more confidence than what we have coming back with the bigs.
 
Speaking of Ray...he's a Junior now, the time for him living strictly off of "potential" is over. He has to be a factor, I mean 6 ppg and 6 rpg is just not going to cut it.

Jaylen averaged 8 ppg and 6 rpg in 20 minutes as a Jr. Ray got 6 ppg and 6 rpg in 20 minutes as a Soph but that doesn't cut the mustard. Ray also blocked nearly twice as many shots as Jaylen.

People are bummed JJ is gonzo and it's hilarious reading all the revisionist theory on the guy. Was he Wes Unseld or Jaylen Johnson?


He was not the physical force everybody credits him for being. He was tough, not afraid to run his trap at whoever and people like that, but it's not like he applied that strength into the box score. He did absolutely nothing in either UVA game - for all this credit for toughness shouldn't he have been a factor then?

He had a grand total of one double double in league play. His "tough" style didn't really generate more wins or anything. It's not like he had a handful of monster games when the spotlight was on. He scored 4 vs Duke one game, and 0 the other. He got 5 vs UNC. He did have a nice game vs UK.

He was really just an average ball player. Can we please stop this charade of the guy being something he wasn't????

If he was so irreplaceable, he wouldn't have split minutes 50/50 with the "soft" Soph. Ray....and been replaced half the game by him. Splitting minutes 50/50 with a player that put up nearly identical #'s a year younger...proves he's actually plenty replaceable, and pretty much the definition of replaceable.

I'm sorry JJ I still love you for pimping Gracie Allen a couple years ago you will forever be in my HOF for that one. And I mean it.

My random thoughts are we don't know who the starting 5 is going to be, or what the rotation will be, or what the roster will be heading into next year.

What we do know is nearly every team in the country is losing a lot. There are a few exceptions, but overall, it's going to be a down year for the product of College Basketball and I'll take my chances with Pitino molding whatever he has into a competitive team.
 
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People are bummed JJ is gonzo and it's hilarious reading all the revisionist theory on the guy. Was he Wes Unseld or Jaylen Johnson?

He was not the physical force everybody credits him for being. He was tough, not afraid to run his trap at whoever and people like that, but it's not like he applied that strength into the box score. He did absolutely nothing in either UVA game - for all this credit for toughness shouldn't he have been a factor then?

All true, but he's the toughest guy down there we had. Anas is great and has some nice moves but if that dude tries to push people around he's more like to push himself off.
 
All true, but he's the toughest guy down there we had. Anas is great and has some nice moves but if that dude tries to push people around he's more like to push himself off.

I think people are so frustrated with Ray they are twisting reality a bit pretending JJ was something more than he actually was.

The reality is they both provided about the same thing statistically, and one guy was a JR, the other a SO.

Toughness can't really be measured - if it mattered as much as people claim it does, WVU, Cincy, and UVA would make the FF every year. I recall a lot of people used to complain about Dieng's toughness, and Siva's. Just sayin'.

I agree with the intent of the OP in some ways - 6 ppg and 6 reb for Ray next year would be unacceptable - it's his time to push those stats closer to a double double average. He should be getting 9 reb a game next year.

Let's see if he can earn the minutes, and produce. If he doesn't - then the criticism would be warranted.
 
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Maybe revisionist history on part with Jaylen but my biggest concern is that while Ray put up similar numbers to Jaylen in similar time on the court is that now, there is no split for time on the court...its going to be all Ray and if he hasn't taken a decent step forward we're going to be SEVERELY lacking at both the Forward and Center spots. I mean we've got a highly ranked Freshman PF behind Ray and thats about it unless you think Thomas is going to come in and play this year. Nwora, King, Adel , Sutton are all wings or 2 Guards. Jaylen may not have been irreplaceable but he provided a much needed body and typically provided decent production and we typically didn't experience much dropoff from Ray to Jaylen or vice-versa. Now we don't have that luxury. We're a team of SFs and PGs.
 
Maybe revisionist history on part with Jaylen but my biggest concern is that while Ray put up similar numbers to Jaylen in similar time on the court is that now, there is no split for time on the court...its going to be all Ray and if he hasn't taken a decent step forward we're going to be SEVERELY lacking at both the Forward and Center spots. I mean we've got a highly ranked Freshman PF behind Ray and thats about it unless you think Thomas is going to come in and play this year. Nwora, King, Adel , Sutton are all wings or 2 Guards. Jaylen may not have been irreplaceable but he provided a much needed body and typically provided decent production and we typically didn't experience much dropoff from Ray to Jaylen or vice-versa. Now we don't have that luxury. We're a team of SFs and PGs.

I agree 100% with what you're saying. The clock is ticking on Ray. I'm in the minority on this board - and I'll eat the crow if I'm wrong - I just think the guy is going to come through. He's got to clean the glass - I think he can do it. Not sure if he'll find a consistent mid-range game, if he does, he'll be one of the most improved players in the country. If he doesn't he could still be effective.

He's taken a more traditional path to development. Some guys hit the ground running. Others show flashes, but struggle with consistency. That's Ray.

Let's see if he "fills out" at all next year - there is no doubt he is physically weak and that alone is the cause for the majority of his problems.
 
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Well, I think our next basketball season may have the fore-shadowing of a disappointing nightmare. I hope the hell, I am wrong! However, I think we may be on the same path that Pitt and Cuse are walking this coming year.
 
Well, I think our next basketball season may have the fore-shadowing of a disappointing nightmare. I hope the hell, I am wrong! However, I think we may be on the same path that Pitt and Cuse are walking this coming year.

I'm pessimistic about next season because of our lack of interior presence, lack of a true go-to scorer, and lack of a true 2 guard. I think Pitino will try and force King or Adel into the 2 out of necessity but I'm not sure King has the defensive ability and I'm not sure Adel has the ball handling ability. We're going to be a team that will be in for some very long nights when the shots aren't falling because of not being able to get quality paint touches and I'm not sure how many guys on this roster can consistently get in the paint. Losing Mitchell and Johnson drastically shifted this roster in my opinion and had a domino effect that UL can't quickly fix.

With Jaylen we're less dependant on Ray and the Freshman and we can roll out two upperclassmen forwards when Anas isn't working or in foul trouble. We could play Mitchell at the point when Q is off the court and now we don't have that luxury. Having Mitchell also allowed Adel and King to play their natural position at the 3...now its almost certain one will be forced to play the SG spot and as I said, I'm not confident either can do it effectively.

I do think there's a chance that next years team isn't very good. As it stands if I were to predict the season with the guys making decent strides I still think this is likely an 10 loss team. So there is a scenario that could play out where this team easily loses more than 10 games because since joining the ACC UL has lost 9, 8, 9 games with teams that I liked more than this one. In fact you can almost guarantee UL will lose 8+ games next year. Rick's only lost less than 8 games 4 times in 16 years at UL and this team isn't going to buck that trend. This team has "4 seed or lower" stamped on it right now.
 
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You cannot have major roster weakness and win in the ACC. Look at who we have to be able to beat:

Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Virginia
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Duke
Florida State
Miami
 
It's spring time boys, relax. I'm ultra confident that Mitchell will come back. As I've posted before, I have a small bit of inside info that tells me we don't have much to worry about. IF, big IF, he does wind up blowing people away at the combine, the kid from Wright St can flat out play and would be an immediate impact, a la Damion Lee. The lack of a true bruiser post presence does concern me but I've also been told we could be looking at a grad transfer option there as well. I'm not worried boys. We'll be fine.
 
I'm pessimistic about next season

I do think there's a chance that next years team isn't very good. As it stands if I were to predict the season with the guys making decent strides I still think this is likely an 10 loss team.


Uh.... last year's team lost 8 reg season games and got a 2 seed.

You are pessimistic without knowing who the Cards will have - and as I said earlier you aren't using context because 98% of the teams are losing multiple players and have their own set of problems.
 
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Well, I think our next basketball season may have the fore-shadowing of a disappointing nightmare. I hope the hell, I am wrong! However, I think we may be on the same path that Pitt and Cuse are walking this coming year.

Uh UofL basketball is nowhere near the path of Pitt.

Cuse might be pretty good, they typically bounce back after a down year.

Not sure how people come to these conclusions without knowing who will be on the team. Nice deep thoughts.
 
In the words of Aaron Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X.......

I don't think we can overstate the importance of DM's decision as it will guide how we approach grad transfers as well as gameplan next season. I would love for him to come back but I don't think he improves his draft stock by coming back and in all honestly if I were in his shoes (and honestly, any of the rest of us if being honest) I would stay in the draft.

Either way, we will be a team with the same make-up with or without DM. Strong guard and wing play, with long shot blocking soft post players.

To me the difference in this years team will be our ability to step away from the basket and have scorers at all 5 positions that can shoot the ball. As everyone has said losing Jaylen does impact us from a physical standpoint, but let's be honest, he didn't constantly bring it and he was only the tough in our current viewpoint, as we haven't had an ACTUAL tough inside presence in years.

We will evolve this year as we do every season, this year to me the team takes on a more potent offensive attack (which I am pumped about) with the same quick, pressing, shot blocking aspects with softer/leaner bigs.

We will finish top 3 in ACC play. We will end up with a 4 seed or higher in NCAA tournament. We will be a challenger for the championship.
 
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Putting Sutton on scholarship essentially means Rick will try and take only one more player at most this Summer. With the UConn kid we now have 12 scholarship athletes....
 
Until we positively know what Adel does, the roster for next year is far from finished. I would add that if JJ wants to come back CRP should do it with open arms. He's not the first kid to make a bad decision.
 
Until we positively know what Adel does, the roster for next year is far from finished. I would add that if JJ wants to come back CRP should do it with open arms. He's not the first kid to make a bad decision.

I would agree that he should allow him to comeback. Which means that King/Sutton/McMahon will be our 2 guard. But I am fine with that totally instead of Alstork. We need Adel back. I hope he comes back.
 
Until we positively know what Adel does, the roster for next year is far from finished. I would add that if JJ wants to come back CRP should do it with open arms. He's not the first kid to make a bad decision.
JJ can't. He hired an agent which ends his amateur status. He is officially a professional.
 
I don't think there's much of a chance that Adel leaves at this point. Not getting invited to the combine all but sealed that deal.
 
Fairly sure he hired an agent on or around the 24th of April. I can't click on the embedded link because of where I work, but check out the linked page and look for his name amongst the embedded links.
http://www.nbadraft.net/news?page=2

I didn't see anything that specifically said he hired an agent on that link or anywhere on the internet, but I think this is a moot point anyway as I would be more shocked at Jaylen coming back than I would be at Adel not returning and I'm about 99.5% confident that Adel will return.
 
In a CJ article last week his mom says he has NOT hired an agent yet.

I mean, we can probably assume he hasn't hired an agent. Surely he would have mentioned that at some point during his conversation with Jeff Greer. Combine that with the fact that his mom said they haven't hired one and I think its safe to assume he hasn't...but like I said he ain't coming back regardless.
 
I mean, we can probably assume he hasn't hired an agent. Surely he would have mentioned that at some point during his conversation with Jeff Greer. Combine that with the fact that his mom said they haven't hired one and I think its safe to assume he hasn't...but like I said he ain't coming back regardless.
Hope I'm wrong and he's still able to come back. He should if he can, but it's his decision.
 
He's not coming back. There's no story here.

Right, Jeff Greer said yesterday that folks at UL were shocked to hear Jaylen say that he might come back because even if he wanted to come back he likely wouldn't have that option at Louisville.
 
Explain why you think he would not be allowed back? He's a kid that made a hasty decision.

Yeah I don't know specifics as to why he wouldn't be allowed back thats just what Nick Coffey and Jeff Greer sort of hinted at yesterday. I can only speculate and say that it could be multiple things...but likely stems from everything surrounding how he left as I 1000% think it has more to do with his arrest and how he handled that and his attitude than him randomly deciding to go make money in China or some random country.
 
With Sutton now on scholarship doesn't that make just one scholly available now? (Assuming Adel comes back.) Don't forget the Enoch kid is on scholly even though he has to sit this season out. And Alstork is visiting later this month.
 
With Sutton now on scholarship doesn't that make just one scholly available now? (Assuming Adel comes back.) Don't forget the Enoch kid is on scholly even though he has to sit this season out. And Alstork is visiting later this month.

Yeah, according to an interview I think Rick did yesterday it appears that its either Alstork or nothing next year and if he doesn't commit then they will just not use the last scholarship...which to me seems like a waste and seems like roster mismanagement with the amount of turnover and talent departure UL is likely to have after this year.
 
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Yeah, according to an interview I think Rick did yesterday it appears that its either Alstork or nothing next year and if he doesn't commit then they will just not use the last scholarship...which to me seems like a waste and seems like roster mismanagement with the amount of turnover and talent departure UL is likely to have after this year.

I also heard Pitino's interview (with Terry Meiners after his 55 and over Rec League debut. LoL!). I never heard Pitino or Meiners mention Alstork at all. I THOUGHT I understood Pitino to say that if Adel returns (which he said he puts at 99%) that we would probably not use the scholarship. I thought that was odd considering what little I had heard about Alstork visiting and considering UofL. Perhaps I misunderstood what was being said or implied.
 
I also heard Pitino's interview (with Terry Meiners after his 55 and over Rec League debut. LoL!). I never heard Pitino or Meiners mention Alstork at all. I THOUGHT I understood Pitino to say that if Adel returns (which he said he puts at 99%) that we would probably not use the scholarship. I thought that was odd considering what little I had heard about Alstork visiting and considering UofL. Perhaps I misunderstood what was being said or implied.

That might be the case. I assumed that with Alstork still visiting (as far as we know) that they would take him if he decides to come. Logically it makes no sense for Louisville not to take him as he would provide a much needed boost to the roster.
 
That might be the case. I assumed that with Alstork still visiting (as far as we know) that they would take him if he decides to come. Logically it makes no sense for Louisville not to take him as he would provide a much needed boost to the roster.
The only logical sense would be if CRP thinks he's not a fit chemistry wise. If he brought this guy in and played over King or over some of the freshmen you could have some issues. Especially if he's not willing to play defense first but I know nothing about the kid.
 
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