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P5 Conference Winning Percentages Since 2014...

...His entire record against the T25 isn't that bad, it's kind of in line with many other coaches, certainly better than some. Problem for me, we don't have the 1.0 version, we have the 2.0 version and those #'s aren't the same as the total body of work.
WC made the point in another thread... The best teams that Petrino has faced in the last three-plus years are ranked higher than those he played between 2003-2007.

A better analysis if you're trying to prove anything worthwhile about his coaching is something like his performance ATS or in games he's favored or the dog. Losing to better teams is not an indictment of anyone. You can make the case he's a good coach when he beats teams as the dog, but you can't say the opposite...
 
...I got lots of points. One point is to laugh at your concept of trashing the SEC West's depth when that division is a loaded division with 3 different teams winning a title since 2007.

But really the main point is back to your OP - the cherry picked stats you've provided placing UofL tied for #8 during Petrino 2 era, are misleading. The program is not that good over this time frame. The brutal record vs the ranked teams drags the team back to a back end T20 position. Nothing wrong with that either. But there is a big difference between a T10 and product and what we actually are..
.
That "depth" can just as easily be a "flash-in-the-pan" factor manifesting itself: teams likely to be great and then not-so-great. I'd argue that's how they can win titles and have rather pedestrian won-lost records over a longer time frame including a title run. Personally, I'd rather be consistently good.

Looking at complete won-lost records over a longer period evens everything out, the advantage of NOT cherry-picking data or looking at a short term benchmark like "titles".

Again, to make your points better, what are other coaches records calculated in the same fashion as you're calculating Petrino's? Citing data in isolation is seldom conclusive...
 
...Who evaluates a division based on 5 random games not played on neutral fields prior to October?

You do.
The thing that makes it the most relevant is that it's in the present--which is what U of L's loss to Clemson is, where Clemson's actual strength lies, and when most of your issues with Petrino have bubbled to the surface.

That is, I'm looking at everything in the same time frame. Crucify me...
 
What you gave was a "data set" that did not include some of the games the Cards played vs top tier competition, including games played on neutral fields televised on National TV in key time slots for recruits to see.

The data set eliminated some good moments (ND, A&M) but omitted a few bad moments too...
If that's a bias--which I don't accept--isn't it the same bias for the rest of the teams on the list? Sure it is.

Don't conference games for each team comprise the majority of each season?

And isn't the focus of most teams--and the NCAA--on games P5 teams play against other P5 teams, i.e., maximizing those? Must be a reason for that.

Looking at ACC-only competition is not a bias IN FAVOR of U of L/Petrino. What's the ACC's record against other P5 conferences lately? If anything, I'm penalizing U of L in that regard.

You're just trying to selectively add data to make your case...
 
For a guy that doesn't want UK on the schedule, you sure do like to point to their impact here.
Different argument completely... LPT is representative of the mid-to-lower ranked teams in the SEC. Having them over-represented in that data set is no different than substituting Vandy, Arkansas, and Missouri for some of those games. Same result in all likelihood. (5-1 in those games...)

And there are enough other SEC teams represented on that list that most people respect: Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and A&M. (2-2 in those games...)

My reasoning about playing LPT is based on our fanbase's tolerance for a loss--nearly zero, which is asinine--and what we get out of beating them. Which is about the same we would get out of beating Vandy. Those are lose-lose games...
 
That is, I'm looking at everything in the same time frame. QUOTE]

.

No you aren't.

In the OP you reference BP 2.0.

Later you cite the UofL record vs the SEC in the last six years, and also ask me to introduce BP's lifetime record vs the T25.

You moved the goalposts.

And now you're re-writing the history of this thread.
 
No you aren't. In the OP you reference BP 2.0.

Later you cite the UofL record vs the SEC the last six years, and also ask me to introduce BP's lifetime record vs the T25.

You moved the goalposts.
I think we've had a few side arguments in this thread since the OP. Follow along here...
  • Mark Ennis's stat: in the PRESENT
  • Lost to Clemson: in the PRESENT
  • Clemson's excellence: in the PRESENT
  • Your gripes with Petrino: in the PRESENT
See a correlation?...
 
You're just trying to selectively add data to make your case...

No. You used selective data in your analysis to make your case.

And that is my problem with your position.

I have no problem with anyone defending BP. You are just using random stats that omit some of the games played to make your case - making your evidence highly incomplete, and cherry picked.

I know you love stats. But you're selectively extracting key data points that need to be used in the analysis.

If you want to defend BP a better path than cherry picking some of the games he's coached would be to mention....

His entire resume tells us he knows what he's doing.

You could also shut haters down immediately and simply ask, "Who else you gonna get?" - that would end it right there.


But your analysis completely eliminates too much data - for example, the biggest game of the BP tenure - the road game at Houston last year where the Cards laid a major egg with so much at stake. For your analysis to have no mention of that failure, and no way to weigh that failure....is just one reason the analysis is useless.

You also scoff at the 1-8 v T25 record. However, if his record were 4-5 v the T25, you would point to that information as relevant in the analysis. But since he's 1-8, those results obviously means nothing to you.

The bigger problem is you feed to the perception that the Cards are more accomplished than they really are. There's a lack of self awareness in a small portion of our fan base that finds the Cards to be better than they are. And that's why some posters come here after losses hoisting a lot of "fire this guy" and "fire that guy" because their expectations aren't in tune with reality. You often ridicule those posters rightfully so, but here you are propping up some data set that omits key data.

Sheesh.
 
I think we've had a few side arguments in this thread since the OP. Follow along here...
  • Mark Ennis's stat: in the PRESENT
  • Lost to Clemson: in the PRESENT
  • Clemson's excellence: in the PRESENT
  • Your gripes with Petrino: in the PRESENT
See a correlation?...

My only gripe with Petrino is he doesn't hand the ball off to the RB as much as I want him to do it. That's it. That's been my gripe for a few years, it's not a new gripe.

The majority of other fans frustration didn't start a few days ago. It started with Houston. The 2nd Houston game.

My gripe in this thread is your defense of BP technique is flawed. Not that you're choosing to defend him.
 
My only gripe with Petrino is he doesn't hand the ball off to the RB as much as I want him to do it. That's it. That's been my gripe for a few years, it's not a new gripe.

The majority of other fans frustration didn't start a few days ago. It started with Houston. The 2nd Houston game.

My gripe in this thread is your defense of BP technique is flawed. Not that you're choosing to defend him.
There is no perfect defense of/for your arguments. But from what I've read, I'll pit mine on this subject against yours or anyone else who has posted here. And you probably feel the same way in the opposite direction...
 
Before you mock it... Iowa's in the Top Ten...not too shabby.

And I'm not sure what "trajectory" you're talking about. We've won 8 of the last 10 conference games and tied the national champs for the division last year. Last season was our best in the ACC.

You guys are simply WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too reactionary. That's why I published the table, for some long term perspective...
Zipp, we'll find out soon if those of us that see a bad trend over the last 6 games are wrong and the stench of our last 4 losses is just a mirage. As a Louisville fan, I sincerely hope I'm wrong and we get back to playing inspired and focused football.

Kirk Ferentz and Iowa have had a solid program for almost 2 decades and they have nothing to be ashamed of but talk to anyone nationally about Iowa and they will tell you that they have been irrelevant in the hunt for a National Title for decades.

Finally, about your list (thanks for the work), as impressive as it is, it doesn't have much bearing on the current state of Louisville football. It doesn't reflect on our last 6 games and the "trajectory" downward in that time unless you want to guess that BP's past coaching success will get us out of this funk.
Possible I guess. Sure hope we get it turned around.
 
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There is no perfect defense of/for your arguments. But from what I've read, I'll pit mine on this subject against yours or anyone else who has posted here. And you probably feel the same way in the opposite direction...

Actually, what is truly hilarious...

I pretty much agree with your premise, I just think your chosen path to defend it sucked.

The Paul Johnson thread - far more effective, and a lot less work - and really just cuts much deeper.
 
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Actually, what is truly hilarious...

I pretty much agree with your premise, I just think your chosen path to defend it sucked.

The Paul Johnson thread - far more effective, and a lot less work - and really just cuts much deeper.
Sometimes you have to beat your head against the wall awhile to realize "I should stop beating my head..."
 
But if you don't beat your head against a wall, you'll never know how good it feels when you stop. :confused:

Is this like finding something good from the Clemson game? :eek:
 
Zipp, we'll find out soon if those of us that see a bad trend over the last 6 games are wrong and the stench of our last 4 losses is just a mirage. As a Louisville fan, I sincerely hope I'm wrong and we get back to playing inspired and focused football.

Finally, about your list (thanks for the work), as impressive as it is, it doesn't have much bearing on the current state of Louisville football. It doesn't reflect on our last 6 games and the "trajectory" downward in that time unless you want to guess that BP's past coaching success will get us out of this funk.
Possible I guess. Sure hope we get it turned around.

I'm not worried about the overall program right now, but I agree with what you're saying. If we get to the end of the year and have a 6-6 / 7-5 kind of record I'll be ready to start thinking about the overall direction.

Right now I think the most important thing for UofL's long term success is to maintain. Keep winning 8+ games, keep going to Bowls. Hopefully the best recruits will see that we have a winning tradition, and thanks to LJ they'll see they can come here and get showcased on a national stage.
 
No. You used selective data in your analysis to make your case.

And that is my problem with your position.

I have no problem with anyone defending BP. You are just using random stats that omit some of the games played to make your case - making your evidence highly incomplete, and cherry picked.

I know you love stats. But you're selectively extracting key data points that need to be used in the analysis.

If you want to defend BP a better path than cherry picking some of the games he's coached would be to mention....

His entire resume tells us he knows what he's doing.

You could also shut haters down immediately and simply ask, "Who else you gonna get?" - that would end it right there.


But your analysis completely eliminates too much data - for example, the biggest game of the BP tenure - the road game at Houston last year where the Cards laid a major egg with so much at stake. For your analysis to have no mention of that failure, and no way to weigh that failure....is just one reason the analysis is useless.

You also scoff at the 1-8 v T25 record. However, if his record were 4-5 v the T25, you would point to that information as relevant in the analysis. But since he's 1-8, those results obviously means nothing to you.

The bigger problem is you feed to the perception that the Cards are more accomplished than they really are. There's a lack of self awareness in a small portion of our fan base that finds the Cards to be better than they are. And that's why some posters come here after losses hoisting a lot of "fire this guy" and "fire that guy" because their expectations aren't in tune with reality. You often ridicule those posters rightfully so, but here you are propping up some data set that omits key data.

Sheesh.
FWIW and dovetailing on your comment about how some of our fans think we are better than we really are.... BP went 4-5 against Top 25 teams here in his first go-around for a total at Louisville of 5-13 vs the Top 25.

Interesting to note that of those 18 games, BP's Louisville teams were also ranked in 13 of the 18 contests.

Obviously those stats don't tell the whole story like facing 2 defending National Champions and 1 team that went on to be Champs.

Victim of his own success? Possibly but those figures are not flattering.
 
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I'm not worried about the overall program right now, but I agree with what you're saying. If we get to the end of the year and have a 6-6 / 7-5 kind of record I'll be ready to start thinking about the overall direction...
I can't disagree with that. But if most people are being real, they predicted us to be 2-1 at this point which is where we're at.

Yes, there are style points, and most fans don't think we've earned any. But I don't think that's gonna deter us from getting to 4-1 which is on the road to my prediction of 9-3 for the season. (That's 5-2 in the last seven games.)

And our fans need to hang in there. Barring a program disaster of epic proportions, you don't go from CFP contender to the outhouse in one step...
 
I can't disagree with that. But if most people are being real, they predicted us to be 2-1 at this point which is where we're at.

Yes, there are style points, and most fans don't think we've earned any. But I don't think that's gonna deter us from getting to 4-1 which is on the road to my prediction of 9-3 for the season. (That's 5-2 in the last seven games.)

I think our final record will really be an indication of the shape of the program overall.

The schedule isn't that formidable for a Top 25 team.

If we don't show up and lose to some bad teams, the people saying Bobby has lost control will probably be proven right. If we go out and take care of business, then it will look like we're at least maintaining and moving in the right direction even if it feels like glacier slow progress to some.
 
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...If we go out and take care of business, then it will look like we're at least maintaining and moving in the right direction even if it feels like glacier slow progress to some.
We just have to be patient. Rome wasn't built in a day, nor was the Crimson Tide...
 
A better analysis if you're trying to prove anything worthwhile about his coaching is something like his performance ATS .

2014 - 7-6
2015 - 7-6
2016 - 5-7-1
2017 - 1-2
49% throw out the tie

2003 - 4-7-1
2004 - 10-2
2005 - 6-6
2006 - 9-4
60% throw out the tie

I'm not sure these #'s really tell us much. One could argue 6-9-1 the last year and a quarter (16-17) there is a bit of a decline in this area. One could also say let's wait until the end of the year to have two full seasons of data to compare.

14-15 combined 54%
16-17 combined 40%



https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/?range=yearly_2006&group=0
 
You win.

What's that famous quote from Dumb and Dumber? :D

Hey zipp if you continue to come the board with this type of "shyte" then your fellow posters are going to think you really do know something. WTH . . . Anything! :rolleyes::p:)

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
 
Hey zipp if you continue to come the board with this type of "shyte" then your fellow posters are going to think you really do know something. WTH . . . Anything!
Obviously I'm hard to get rid of. And the worst thing to do if that's your goal is to pay attention to me!... :cool:
 
Petrino 2.0 has actually recruited with ACC heft for 3 years. Yes, in a way this can be construed as somewhat apologetic in support of the coach who honestly yet needs a full season or even 2 for the work we so insistently demand - assessing the dude's competence as the HC of our Cards. Obviously - and this has been covered - fans freaked out over the Clemson collapse, to say nothing of our final 3 games of last season. All this matters - in particular the 6 games stretch where we have gone 2-4, against Big Boys and even freaking UK, lol, who tends to be showing strange signs of life in the 'Filth.

In looking for a balanced perspective, I would submit - first - that his initial recruiting was a hurried affair during a very compressed period of time, owing to Charlie's urge to clear town after the Texan approach, leaving him fairly bereft of insight or analysis. It was also our very first year in the ACC, a conference, it turns out (and particularly our division) which is mighty dam strong. The good result we got - beating ND, Texas A & M in the bowl - was also the emergence of Lamar. To my mind, there is little doubt both of Lamar's seasons - particularly last year caused a substantial uptick in recruiting and an improvement in our brand. I suspect we are only now reaping those benefits and that it is early in the process. There is also something that springs to mind about the man which reveals a "make or break" situation in upcoming analyses - this will soon be the longest period he has ever stayed at one place. He does seem to be building a recruiting bureaucracy and the approach to high school coaches where we recruit the most is seriously underway and also paying dividends. Bobby in Year 5 has never been done, lol.

In the game day coaching, what has cost us games is not necessarily his coaching, although it can be said he is responsible for the composure, aggression and competence levels if the team implementing his plan. I thought we lost our leaders on defense in Harvey-Clemons, Wiggins, Young and, later, Hearns and Henry. All upperclassmen and all seriously relied on as anchors. As we know, our lack pf depth killed us. Losing against Clemson bothers me not, lol. I watched every painful second of that fiasco and my conclusion - quite frankly - was we should simply move on as rapidly as possible. I have said as much everywhere I post. Sometimes, you just play shitty - that is sports. I've been there and the mystery of why it happens is an immense combination of factors - hyperventilating, too pumped for even warm ups to where you literally tire yourself out before the dam game even takes place, fear of failure which cascades with lack of success....a million reasons which all say the same. A big loss.

I stay optimistic, personally, but much of that is my nature, too. We all celebrated the return of 2.0, but I would caution his arc of improvement is an unfinished thing. There is even reason to think that Lamar going pro could be a blessing in disguise - an ironic but possible scenario. No one who we know in coaching will ever have a Lamar in the future. He is a One Timer and, unfortunately, he might be the guy who hyperventilated, mistiming easy passes much the same as he did closing the season last year. His "Twitch" is included in his emotions. Bobby should probably hand the ball off more and allow Lamar to relax, but confidence in the line is not just a discovery we have to make - so does the play caller.

Watching Becton on his way to a marvelous career at Louisville and a freshman All American anchors our O line and hugely mitigated the damage one side of Clemson's D Line could do - all game long!! Getting Jaire back will be big.

I like both the trajectory of our season to come and the future beyond that. Bob has a chance to produce wonderful stuff, but this season needs to play out. If we end is doubts similar to those we closed with last season, then his seat got slightly warm.
 
And our fans need to hang in there. Barring a program disaster of epic proportions, you don't go from CFP contender to the outhouse in one step...

I'm hanging in there. It's actually easier to support the program when it's doing well as opposed to when it's struggling.

You've been in denial about the trajectory of the program though.
 
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It's hard to imagine an ACC coach who delivers 8+ wins every year and 3/3 Bowl games being on the hot seat. Sure we all want more but those are pretty solid numbers 90% of schools would kill for.

Also be careful what you wish for... Michigan probably thought they'd reload under Rich Rodriguez. It took Alabama over a decade to get from Stallings to Saban. Things can get a lot worse, quick.

YYYYYUP.
 
What's that "trajectory"?...

Well, evidence on the field hasn't helped you figure it out, so I'm not sure if any answer is going to register for you.

Here's a few pictures that might help you understand.

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Employee-Engagement-Downhill-e1430788782838.jpg
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A better analysis if you're trying to prove anything worthwhile about his coaching is something like his performance ATS or in games he's favored or the dog. Losing to better teams is not an indictment of anyone. You can make the case he's a good coach when he beats teams as the dog, but you can't say the opposite...

You didn't respond to this one a month ago when they were 1-2 in 2017. Now he's 1-6 a month later.

Against the Spread....

2014 - 7-6
2015 - 7-6
2016 - 5-7-1
2017 - 1-6
43% throw out the tie

2003 - 4-7-1
2004 - 10-2
2005 - 6-6
2006 - 9-4
60% throw out the tie
 
Ouch.


Out of Louisville's last 5 losses 3 of them are to coaches on this list

Jason Anderson added,


Brett McMurphyVerified account@Brett_McMurphy
Worst P5 league records since 2013: Bielema 10-25, Stoops 10-25, MacIntyre 11-29, Addazio 11-25, Doeren 13-23, Jones 14-21, Kingsbury 14-25
8:38 AM - 16 Oct 2017
 
So now the issue is losing to bad coaches. I thought it was losing to ranked teams. Funny how you can do both in spades and still be Top Ten among P5 football programs.

Maybe "trajectory" holds the answer...do recent losses count double?
 
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Maybe "trajectory" holds the answer...do recent losses count double?

trend
trend/
noun
noun: trend; plural noun: trends
1
.
a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

How come you aren't responding to the against the spread stats bub?
 
trend
trend/
noun
noun: trend; plural noun: trends
1.
a general direction in which something is developing or changing.

How come you aren't responding to the against the spread stats bub?
I never said I was conceding your point, dude, if you could produce better evidence. I simply told you what better evidence was, to help you with your arguments, help you needed.

When they start adjusting won-loss records for spreads, maybe Petrino drops outta the Top 10. Those results are up-to-date and reflect "trajectories"...
 
I never said I was conceding your point, dude, if you could produce better evidence. I simply told you what better evidence was, to help you with your arguments, help you needed.

When they start adjusting won-loss records for spreads, maybe Petrino drops outta the Top 10. Those results are up-to-date and reflect "trajectories"...

So the "against the spread" is a good barometer per your post earlier in the thread, but when I locate the data, and that data doesn't put a shine on Petrino then suddenly "against the spread" is no longer a good barometer.

Good talk.

I think we've covered our positions, Bobby. It's cool. I hope the Cards win Saturday and start "trending up" - honestly, I would settle for a loss if the team showed some positives somewhere other than Lamar and Dez.

Cheers Zipp.
 
I never said I was conceding your point, dude, if you could produce better evidence. I simply told you what better evidence was, to help you with your arguments, help you needed.

When they start adjusting won-loss records for spreads, maybe Petrino drops outta the Top 10. Those results are up-to-date and reflect "trajectories"...

Evidence provided.
 
Need say no more:

8. Louisville (ACC Atlantic) 0.692
63. Purdue (Big Ten West) 0.120

However, the devil made me do this. Ok, Purdue fans. I know you guys are on suicide alarm right now. You fear Jeff Brohm leaving will take you straight back to your losing ways. I feel for you. And money is not an issue. Jeff is coming home to family, where he played at Trinity High and he is a Louisville Leacy Alumnus and his Jersey hangs on the wall of honor in Louisville Cardinal Stadium. Oscar (father), Jeff, and Brian (brother) were all Louisville quarterbacks. Their brother Greg is a Louisville Leacy Alumnus , who played wide receiver at Louisville. Brian is a Louisville Leacy Alumnus, Also. So where do you think the Brohm family, would rather be tailgating on game day, Purdue or Louisville? Also, Jeff's son will be ready to start at Louisville Trinity as a Leacy Alumnus freshman . Jeff still owns his home in Louisville. And icing on the cake is, drumroll please, AD tyra is a native louisvillian and Trinity High Leacy Alumnus, also. So I ask you Purdue fans, how do you think you have an edge on keeping Jeff?
Forrest-Gump-Quotes-1.jpg
 
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