P5 Conference Winning Percentages Since 2014...

[zipp]

(This one's coming at a small, newly formed, upset group of Bobby haters...)

Below is a list of P5 football programs ranked by conference win percentage through this past weekend's games completed. These are conference games only and since the start of the 2014 season, Petrino's first season with his return to Louisville. The percentages include the conference playoff games which I threw in for the hell of it.

The teams at the very top are a Who's Who of college football programs nowadays. Just below the Top Five are a group of ten or so programs who excel but not quite at the level at the top. U of L is planted in that group tied for #8 overall.

No one's "happy"--a word I heard the last couple days--with #8. No more so than Wisconsin's happy at #6, USC's happy at #10, or Florida's happy at #12. But you can't dismiss this win % ranking because it's at least as relevant as a recruiting ranking is: the programs at the top are the best in the country. And you're on their doorstep. I'm sorry, but you are.

You're not a flash-in-the-pan, this is over three-plus seasons. Petrino didn't inherit a roster full of Alabama or Ohio State kids. And he's not playing in the SEC East or the ACC Coastal where the wins come easier. The ACC Atlantic is the only division in college football with THREE teams in the Top Ten of this list.

Wins and losses are precisely the reason why Petrino's at no risk of losing his job to Jeff Brohm or anyone else a few of you guys can dream up. As a coach, Petrino's always working on a better gameplan. And as fans, some of you need to do the same thing...

1. Alabama (SEC West) 0.926
1. Ohio State (Big Ten East) 0.926
3. Clemson (ACC Atlantic) 0.889
4. Oklahoma (Big XII) 0.815
5. Florida State (ACC Atlantic) 0.800
6. Wisconsin (Big Ten West) 0.741
7. TCU (Big XII) 0.704
8. Louisville (ACC Atlantic) 0.692
8. Iowa (Big Ten West) 0.692
10. Stanford (Pac 12 North) 0.690
10. USC (Pac 12 South) 0.690
12. Florida (SEC East) 0.667
12. Oklahoma State (Big XII) 0.667
14. North Carolina (ACC Coastal) 0.654
15. Oregon (Pac 12 North) 0.643
16. Michigan (Big Ten East) 0.640
17. Baylor (Big XII) 0.630
18. Pittsburgh (ACC Coastal) 0.625
18. Georgia (SEC East) 0.625
20. Michigan State (Big Ten East) 0.615
21. Washington (Pac 12 North) 0.607
22. Utah (Pac 12 South) 0.593
22. Kansas State (Big XII) 0.593
22. West Virginia (Big XII) 0.593
25. Penn State (Big Ten East) 0.577
26. Washington St (Pac 12 North) 0.571
27. Mississippi State (SEC West) 0.560
27. LSU (SEC West) 0.560
27. Nebraska (Big Ten West) 0.560
27. Northwestern (Big Ten West) 0.560
31. Miami (ACC Coastal) 0.542
31. Ole Miss (SEC West) 0.542
33. Virginia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.520
34. UCLA (Pac 12 South) 0.481
35. Tennessee (SEC East) 0.480
35. Minnesota (Big Ten West) 0.480
37. Auburn (SEC West) 0.458
37. Texas A&M (SEC West) 0.458
39. Maryland (Big Ten East) 0.452
40. Arizona State (Pac 12 South) 0.444
40. Texas (Big XII) 0.444
42. Georgia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.440
43. Duke (ACC Coastal) 0.417
43. Arkansas (SEC West) 0.417
45. Arizona (Pac 12 South) 0.393
46. Missouri (SEC East) 0.385
47. California (Pac 12 North) 0.370
48. Boston College (ACC Atlantic) 0.360
48. Kentucky (SEC East) 0.360
50. NC State (ACC Atlantic) 0.348
51. Texas Tech (Big XII) 0.333
52. Colorado (Pac 12 South) 0.321
53. South Carolina (SEC East) 0.308
54. Virginia (ACC Coastal) 0.292
55. Illinois (Big Ten West) 0.280
56. Indiana (Big Ten East) 0.269
57. Vanderbilt (SEC East) 0.208
58. Wake Forest (ACC Atlantic) 0.200
59. Oregon State (Pac 12 North) 0.179
60. Syracuse (ACC Atlantic) 0.167
61. Rutgers (Big Ten East) 0.160
62. Iowa State (Big XII) 0.148
63. Purdue (Big Ten West) 0.120
64. Kansas (Big XII) 0.074

 

[Louisvillian]

(This one's coming at a small, newly formed, upset group of Bobby haters...)

Below is a list of P5 football programs ranked by conference win percentage through this past weekend's games completed. These are conference games only and since the start of the 2014 season, Petrino's first season with his return to Louisville. The percentages include the conference playoff games which I threw in for the hell of it.

The teams at the very top are a Who's Who of college football programs nowadays. Just below the Top Five are a group of ten or so programs who excel but not quite at the level at the top. U of L is planted in that group tied for #8 overall.

No one's "happy"--a word I heard the last couple days--with #8. No more so than Wisconsin's happy at #6, USC's happy at #10, or Florida's happy at #12. But you can't dismiss this win % ranking because it's at least as relevant as a recruiting ranking is: the programs at the top are the best in the country. And you're on their doorstep. I'm sorry, but you are.

You're not a flash-in-the-pan, this is over three-plus seasons. Petrino didn't inherit a roster full of Alabama or Ohio State kids. And he's not playing in the SEC East or the ACC Coastal where the wins come easier. The ACC Atlantic is the only division in college football with THREE teams in the Top Ten of this list.

Wins and losses are precisely the reason why Petrino's at no risk of losing his job to Jeff Brohm or anyone else a few of you guys can dream up. As a coach, Petrino's always working on a better gameplan. And as fans, some of you need to do the same thing...

1. Alabama (SEC West) 0.926
1. Ohio State (Big Ten East) 0.926
3. Clemson (ACC Atlantic) 0.889
4. Oklahoma (Big XII) 0.815
5. Florida State (ACC Atlantic) 0.800
6. Wisconsin (Big Ten West) 0.741
7. TCU (Big XII) 0.704
8. Louisville (ACC Atlantic) 0.692
8. Iowa (Big Ten West) 0.692
10. Stanford (Pac 12 North) 0.690
10. USC (Pac 12 South) 0.690
12. Florida (SEC East) 0.667
12. Oklahoma State (Big XII) 0.667
14. North Carolina (ACC Coastal) 0.654
15. Oregon (Pac 12 North) 0.643
16. Michigan (Big Ten East) 0.640
17. Baylor (Big XII) 0.630
18. Pittsburgh (ACC Coastal) 0.625
18. Georgia (SEC East) 0.625
20. Michigan State (Big Ten East) 0.615
21. Washington (Pac 12 North) 0.607
22. Utah (Pac 12 South) 0.593
22. Kansas State (Big XII) 0.593
22. West Virginia (Big XII) 0.593
25. Penn State (Big Ten East) 0.577
26. Washington St (Pac 12 North) 0.571
27. Mississippi State (SEC West) 0.560
27. LSU (SEC West) 0.560
27. Nebraska (Big Ten West) 0.560
27. Northwestern (Big Ten West) 0.560
31. Miami (ACC Coastal) 0.542
31. Ole Miss (SEC West) 0.542
33. Virginia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.520
34. UCLA (Pac 12 South) 0.481
35. Tennessee (SEC East) 0.480
35. Minnesota (Big Ten West) 0.480
37. Auburn (SEC West) 0.458
37. Texas A&M (SEC West) 0.458
39. Maryland (Big Ten East) 0.452
40. Arizona State (Pac 12 South) 0.444
40. Texas (Big XII) 0.444
42. Georgia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.440
43. Duke (ACC Coastal) 0.417
43. Arkansas (SEC West) 0.417
45. Arizona (Pac 12 South) 0.393
46. Missouri (SEC East) 0.385
47. California (Pac 12 North) 0.370
48. Boston College (ACC Atlantic) 0.360
48. Kentucky (SEC East) 0.360
50. NC State (ACC Atlantic) 0.348
51. Texas Tech (Big XII) 0.333
52. Colorado (Pac 12 South) 0.321
53. South Carolina (SEC East) 0.308
54. Virginia (ACC Coastal) 0.292
55. Illinois (Big Ten West) 0.280
56. Indiana (Big Ten East) 0.269
57. Vanderbilt (SEC East) 0.208
58. Wake Forest (ACC Atlantic) 0.200
59. Oregon State (Pac 12 North) 0.179
60. Syracuse (ACC Atlantic) 0.167
61. Rutgers (Big Ten East) 0.160
62. Iowa State (Big XII) 0.148
63. Purdue (Big Ten West) 0.120
64. Kansas (Big XII) 0.074

Oh how I long to be the Iowa Hawkeyes.

And by the way, just because you question the trajectory of the program over the last 6 games doesn't mean you hate BP. On the contrary, I'd love to shake his hand and thank him for all he's done here, especially developing Lamar Jackson.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Bottom line results are always appreciated.

I'd also give him a thumbs up for the win at ND and the W over A&M.

He also was standing over there when Chubb for UGA ran for 15,000 yards against us in the Belk Bowl and he made Ed Oregon look like a mastermind when we played LSU. Then there was that L to the Cats, though we did beat them twice in the last three years... and who can forget the multiple losses to Houston? How bout that 1st play vs Auburn? Since we're not counting these games in your analysis can you PLEASE figure out a way to erase them from my memory?

I mean whatever I am a fan he's here I'm pulling for him. I'm not that excited about wins against Duke, BC, and the Cuse who are in dire straights these days but it sure beats losing to them. And even though those wins aren't exciting I truly do understand it's never easy and I probably shouldn't take them for granted. That's why I don't.

If he just handed the ball off to a RB a little more often I'd never had said a word about him!

Hoping for the best!

 

[Mayoman]

Excellent data....thanks for your hard work posting this information.

Purdue at #63 is only ahead of Kansas at # 64. No where to go but up for Purdue. That will be changed in the next 3 years with Brohm's coaching.

IMO, what really hampers UofL's SoS is having their division mates coming in at #60 Cuse, #58 Wake Forest, #50 NC St, and #48 BC who is tied with UK. % annual opponents who drive down the SoS.

Of course having FSU at #5, and CU at # 3, is just our bad 'damn luck' or the motivation to improve, greatly in order to become great ourselves.

If we were put in the other division, than it would be #14 UNC, #18 Pitt, #31 Miami, #33 VT, #42 GT, #43 Duke, and #54 UVA....who is also an annual opponent.

For SoS and better competition....we really need those teams to get a lot better too.

 

[nccardfan]

(This one's coming at a small, newly formed, upset group of Bobby haters...)

Below is a list of P5 football programs ranked by conference win percentage through this past weekend's games completed. These are conference games only and since the start of the 2014 season, Petrino's first season with his return to Louisville. The percentages include the conference playoff games which I threw in for the hell of it.

The teams at the very top are a Who's Who of college football programs nowadays. Just below the Top Five are a group of ten or so programs who excel but not quite at the level at the top. U of L is planted in that group tied for #8 overall.

No one's "happy"--a word I heard the last couple days--with #8. No more so than Wisconsin's happy at #6, USC's happy at #10, or Florida's happy at #12. But you can't dismiss this win % ranking because it's at least as relevant as a recruiting ranking is: the programs at the top are the best in the country. And you're on their doorstep. I'm sorry, but you are.

You're not a flash-in-the-pan, this is over three-plus seasons. Petrino didn't inherit a roster full of Alabama or Ohio State kids. And he's not playing in the SEC East or the ACC Coastal where the wins come easier. The ACC Atlantic is the only division in college football with THREE teams in the Top Ten of this list.

Wins and losses are precisely the reason why Petrino's at no risk of losing his job to Jeff Brohm or anyone else a few of you guys can dream up. As a coach, Petrino's always working on a better gameplan. And as fans, some of you need to do the same thing...

1. Alabama (SEC West) 0.926
1. Ohio State (Big Ten East) 0.926
3. Clemson (ACC Atlantic) 0.889
4. Oklahoma (Big XII) 0.815
5. Florida State (ACC Atlantic) 0.800
6. Wisconsin (Big Ten West) 0.741
7. TCU (Big XII) 0.704
8. Louisville (ACC Atlantic) 0.692
8. Iowa (Big Ten West) 0.692
10. Stanford (Pac 12 North) 0.690
10. USC (Pac 12 South) 0.690
12. Florida (SEC East) 0.667
12. Oklahoma State (Big XII) 0.667
14. North Carolina (ACC Coastal) 0.654
15. Oregon (Pac 12 North) 0.643
16. Michigan (Big Ten East) 0.640
17. Baylor (Big XII) 0.630
18. Pittsburgh (ACC Coastal) 0.625
18. Georgia (SEC East) 0.625
20. Michigan State (Big Ten East) 0.615
21. Washington (Pac 12 North) 0.607
22. Utah (Pac 12 South) 0.593
22. Kansas State (Big XII) 0.593
22. West Virginia (Big XII) 0.593
25. Penn State (Big Ten East) 0.577
26. Washington St (Pac 12 North) 0.571
27. Mississippi State (SEC West) 0.560
27. LSU (SEC West) 0.560
27. Nebraska (Big Ten West) 0.560
27. Northwestern (Big Ten West) 0.560
31. Miami (ACC Coastal) 0.542
31. Ole Miss (SEC West) 0.542
33. Virginia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.520
34. UCLA (Pac 12 South) 0.481
35. Tennessee (SEC East) 0.480
35. Minnesota (Big Ten West) 0.480
37. Auburn (SEC West) 0.458
37. Texas A&M (SEC West) 0.458
39. Maryland (Big Ten East) 0.452
40. Arizona State (Pac 12 South) 0.444
40. Texas (Big XII) 0.444
42. Georgia Tech (ACC Coastal) 0.440
43. Duke (ACC Coastal) 0.417
43. Arkansas (SEC West) 0.417
45. Arizona (Pac 12 South) 0.393
46. Missouri (SEC East) 0.385
47. California (Pac 12 North) 0.370
48. Boston College (ACC Atlantic) 0.360
48. Kentucky (SEC East) 0.360
50. NC State (ACC Atlantic) 0.348
51. Texas Tech (Big XII) 0.333
52. Colorado (Pac 12 South) 0.321
53. South Carolina (SEC East) 0.308
54. Virginia (ACC Coastal) 0.292
55. Illinois (Big Ten West) 0.280
56. Indiana (Big Ten East) 0.269
57. Vanderbilt (SEC East) 0.208
58. Wake Forest (ACC Atlantic) 0.200
59. Oregon State (Pac 12 North) 0.179
60. Syracuse (ACC Atlantic) 0.167
61. Rutgers (Big Ten East) 0.160
62. Iowa State (Big XII) 0.148
63. Purdue (Big Ten West) 0.120
64. Kansas (Big XII) 0.074

So you're saying we lost to #48 and Houston who is not even on that list??

 

[zipp]

So you're saying we lost to #48 and Houston who is not even on that list??

Say what you mean... I don't need to play cat and mouse.

What I AM saying is you're on a Top Ten list with college football's heavyweights. Congrats to you!

 

[zipp]

Oh how I long to be the Iowa Hawkeyes.

And by the way, just because you question the trajectory of the program over the last 6 games doesn't mean you hate BP. On the contrary, I'd love to shake his hand and thank him for all he's done here, especially developing Lamar Jackson.

Before you mock it... Iowa's in the Top Ten...not too shabby.

And I'm not sure what "trajectory" you're talking about. We've won 8 of the last 10 conference games and tied the national champs for the division last year. Last season was our best in the ACC.

You guys are simply WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too reactionary. That's why I published the table, for some long term perspective...

 

[Rollem Cards]

Before you mock it... Iowa's in the Top Ten...not too shabby.

And I'm not sure what "trajectory" you're talking about. We've won 8 of the last 10 conference games and tied the national champs for the division last year. Last season was our best in the ACC.

You guys are simply WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too reactionary. That's why I published the table, for some long term perspective...

I'm not the least bit happy with Saturday's performance on any level.

But this list gives a much different look to where we are overall and it bodes well of us.

However, I'm still concerned about our last-six-game trend.

Gotta see how it plays out this year.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

It's hard to imagine an ACC coach who delivers 8+ wins every year and 3/3 Bowl games being on the hot seat. Sure we all want more but those are pretty solid numbers 90% of schools would kill for.

Also be careful what you wish for... Michigan probably thought they'd reload under Rich Rodriguez. It took Alabama over a decade to get from Stallings to Saban. Things can get a lot worse, quick.

 

[zipp]

I'm not the least bit happy with Saturday's performance on any level.

But this list gives a much different look to where we are overall and it bodes well of us.

However, I'm still concerned about our last-six-game trend.

Gotta see how it plays out this year.

Emoji Post of the Day Award!... (one that wasn't used!)

 

[Cue Card]

How is it possible the mighty SEC only has 1 top 10 team in winning percentage since 2014? I find that very odd considering how we're spoon fed all the time how awesome SEC football is. Just weird.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Depth of the SEC West Cue. Teams beat each other.

Sometimes stats can be misleading.

It's nice to see the Cards in a T10 of some kind. Program has been fine since Petrino took over, but the last 10 games or so are concerning. Petrino has done a good job avoiding "bad" losses, I can think of UVA as the only one.

All these stats tell me is some teams have a # of easy wins in conference and some teams don't. The schedules are not balanced, and some schedules have more challenges in terms of depth of decent teams than do others.

The Cards record vs the T25, or T50 would tell a more accurate story.

 

[CardX]

However, I'm still concerned about our last-six-game trend.

And, that Bobby 2.0 is 1-8 against top 25 teams.

 

[zipp]

Depth of the SEC West Cue. Teams beat each other.

Sometimes stats can be misleading.

It's nice to see the Cards in a T10 of some kind. Program has been fine since Petrino took over, but the last 10 games or so are concerning. Petrino has done a good job avoiding "bad" losses, I can think of UVA as the only one.

All these stats tell me is some teams have a # of easy wins in conference and some teams don't. The schedules are not balanced, and some schedules have more challenges in terms of depth of decent teams than do others.

The Cards record vs the T25, or T50 would tell a more accurate story.

SEC West "depth" is the very hogwash Cue's pointing out. Repeating it doesn't explain anything. More likely it indicates mediocrity beyond Bama, which we sure as hell know is true of the SEC East. Freaking LPT has a chance to WIN that sorry division.

A list of teams ranked by winning percentage is not a "T10 of some kind". Wins and losses are the bottom line and what gets coaches fired. It's arguably THE most important Top Ten, and it's only mitigated IF you're playing in a division like the SEC East. We're at the other end of the spectrum in the ACC Atlantic.

And stats mean very little in isolation... Show me how other P5 teams/coaches are doing against ranked and unranked teams. I want to see how Petrino compares...

 

[zipp]

And, that Bobby 2.0 is 1-8 against top 25 teams.

Just heard Mark Ennis quote a stat on 93.9...

The SEC West this year is 1-4 against P5 teams. That's ALL teams, not just ranked. And Bama has that only win, which kinda indicates there is no "depth" in that division.

As I said, stats like 1-8 often mean very little in isolation...

 

[topdecktiger]

I found this list, just out of curiosity. It has the record of every FBS coach against ranked teams. This list is from 2014, but it gives you a perspective of the average coach's record vs. ranked opponents.

 

[CardX]

Just heard Mark Ennis quote a stat on 93.9...

The SEC West this year is 1-4 against P5 teams. That's ALL teams, not just ranked. And Bama has that only win, which kinda indicates there is no "depth" in that division.

As I said, stats like 1-8 often mean very little in isolation...

But they definitely mean something.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

I love looking at stats. Thanks to Zipp and TopdeckTiger for posting a lot of them.

Here's the thing though... You can line these stats up 100 different ways and come up with 100 different opinions. If you look at TDT's list from 2014, you could draw conclusions like, Saban is the best coach. Okay, no arguments. I'm pretty sure 99% of the statistical analysis you could do would show that one way or another. But you could argue Les Miles is #2. I'm not as okay with that. But he has the 2nd most wins. Okay, what about win percentage then? Well then let's talk about a gigantic contract extension for David Shaw.

I'm not trying to say any of these coaches are bad. But look, here's another thing to look at.

Petrino is 1-8 against Top 25 since coming back to Louisville. But 7-21 overall. Not great, but that's 7 Top 25 wins.

Also, here's another way to break it down. Who was the 1-8 to?

1-6 of that is FSU and Clemson. Kind of expected.
0-2 of that was Bowl games against Georgia and LSU.

That's it, as far as I can tell. I mean, no one wants to be 1-8, but those are some pretty good losses across the board.

But someone else can look at all this and find a different answer. "1-8? That's all I need to know!" Or: "All the other great coaches on TDT's list have at least 10 wins against Top 25 teams, Bobby only has 7 and he was in the Big East while everyone else played in a tough league." and "That was Bobby 1.0 who won 6 games against Top 25, not Bobby 2.0!"

There's always a way to spin the numbers to get the answer you want.

To me 1-8 is a stat, but it's bogus for evaluating him and it's definitely not the start/stop point for evaluating him. I'm more interested in the numbers: 3 straight Bowls, 8+ wins every season, finished in Top 3 of a tough division every year. If those numbers start to go down in the coming years, I'm ready to re-evaluate but we're not there yet and hopefully we won't get there.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

SEC West "depth" is the very hogwash Cue's pointing out. Repeating it doesn't explain anything. More likely it indicates mediocrity beyond Bama, .

Guess you were in a coma during the bowl game vs LSU. An SEC East also ran also mopped the floor with the Cards in the Belk Bowl a few years ago too.

You're reaching with your stats.

The program is not in the trouble some say, but it ain't as rosy as you're painting either. The truth is somewhere in between.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Just heard Mark Ennis quote a stat on 93.9...

The SEC West this year is 1-4 against P5 teams. That's ALL teams, not just ranked. And Bama has that only win, which kinda indicates there is no "depth" in that division.

As I said, stats like 1-8 often mean very little in isolation...

Why are you evaluating the Cards using a 3-4 year ACC only window and the SEC West on a random 5 game window? Got some cherries over here if you're in the mood to go picking some more man!

1-8 means very little when it counters your position. Great! We get it!

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Just heard Mark Ennis quote a stat on 93.9...

The SEC West this year is 1-4 against P5 teams. .

And one of those losses was for Auburn AT Clemson - and you've turned Clemson into an NFL level team the last couple days so that means that one is a good loss amirite?

 

[topdecktiger]

But you could argue Les Miles is #2. I'm not as okay with that. But he has the 2nd most wins.

This is where the argument gets tricky. Do you mean "coach" in the pure sense (as in a trainer and instructor), or do you mean "coach" as the manager/architect of the team? If you're talking about the former, then you have do a little more in depth analysis. You have to look at how the individual players improve in their abilities under the coach's tutelage, what the coach does given his available resources, etc.

If you are talking about the latter, then it just comes down to how many games he's winning for your school. The reason Les Miles is high on that list (and remember it's a few years old) is not because he's a good "coach" per se. It's because he can recruit a bunch of good players, and simply have more talent than 90% of his opponents. The question is, does that matter to you as a fan of the school? Does winning itself make a coach good, or is winning + other stuff? It sort of depends on your outlook, which can vary.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

1-6 of that is FSU and Clemson. Kind of expected.
0-2 of that was Bowl games against Georgia and LSU.

Auburn was #6 when they beat the Cards opening game a few years ago.

You know, another one of those hogwash SEC West teams.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I found this list, just out of curiosity. It has the record of every FBS coach against ranked teams. This list is from 2014, but it gives you a perspective of the average coach's record vs. ranked opponents.

Charlie Weiss 0-14... so much for that schematic advantage.

 

[zipp]

But they definitely mean something.

You win.

What's that famous quote from Dumb and Dumber?

 

[zipp]

I love looking at stats. Thanks to Zipp and TopdeckTiger for posting a lot of them.

Here's the thing though... You can line these stats up 100 different ways and come up with 100 different opinions. If you look at TDT's list from 2014, you could draw conclusions like, Saban is the best coach. Okay, no arguments. I'm pretty sure 99% of the statistical analysis you could do would show that one way or another. But you could argue Les Miles is #2. I'm not as okay with that. But he has the 2nd most wins. Okay, what about win percentage then? Well then let's talk about a gigantic contract extension for David Shaw.

I'm not trying to say any of these coaches are bad. But look, here's another thing to look at.

Petrino is 1-8 against Top 25 since coming back to Louisville. But 7-21 overall. Not great, but that's 7 Top 25 wins.

Also, here's another way to break it down. Who was the 1-8 to?

1-6 of that is FSU and Clemson. Kind of expected.
0-2 of that was Bowl games against Georgia and LSU.

That's it, as far as I can tell. I mean, no one wants to be 1-8, but those are some pretty good losses across the board.

But someone else can look at all this and find a different answer. "1-8? That's all I need to know!" Or: "All the other great coaches on TDT's list have at least 10 wins against Top 25 teams, Bobby only has 7 and he was in the Big East while everyone else played in a tough league." and "That was Bobby 1.0 who won 6 games against Top 25, not Bobby 2.0!"

There's always a way to spin the numbers to get the answer you want.

To me 1-8 is a stat, but it's bogus for evaluating him and it's definitely not the start/stop point for evaluating him. I'm more interested in the numbers: 3 straight Bowls, 8+ wins every season, finished in Top 3 of a tough division every year. If those numbers start to go down in the coming years, I'm ready to re-evaluate but we're not there yet and hopefully we won't get there.

Agree, and it's also relevant beating the teams you're supposed to beat. I can hear that narrative now for Petrino...

"Sure, he upsets more ranked teams than he should. Then he turns around and backtracks by losing to a team he shouldn't..."​

As if beating good teams earned him more than enough credit to compensate, when I know otherwise.

The only thing I'm sure of is that everyone would be happy if Petrino was undefeated. Wonderful...

 

[zipp]

Guess you were in a coma during the bowl game vs LSU. An SEC East also ran also mopped the floor with the Cards in the Belk Bowl a few years ago too.

You're reaching with your stats.

The program is not in the trouble some say, but it ain't as rosy as you're painting either. The truth is somewhere in between.

Won-lost stats are the truth. You can cherry pick data all you want, but no one steeped in analysis will endorse your conclusions. You're just picking data that tell your story.

Since we're talking SEC, U of L is 7-4 against the SEC over the last six years, which is a 0.636 winning %. That's better than everyone in the SEC but Alabama and Florida on the above list. That's also WITHOUT the benefits of recruiting to the SEC.

Six years is a long 'coma'...

 

[zipp]

Why are you evaluating the Cards using a 3-4 year ACC only window and the SEC West on a random 5 game window? Got some cherries over here if you're in the mood to go picking some more man!

1-8 means very little when it counters your position. Great! We get it!

No, you're not following... A limited set of data can prove whatever you want. Why aren't you presenting Petrino's entire record against ranked teams? Because it's not as bad??

What I gave you at the top of this thread is the COMPLETE data set since Petrino started at U of L again in 2014 and for the ENTIRE nation of P5 programs. We weren't in the ACC prior to 2014, nor was he here. And it's wins and losses, not something off the radar.

You can't beat that, or you haven't yet...

 

[zipp]

And one of those losses was for Auburn AT Clemson - and you've turned Clemson into an NFL level team the last couple days so that means that one is a good loss amirite?

Since we're cherry picking, about that A&M-UCLA game, eh?...

 

[zipp]

This is where the argument gets tricky. Do you mean "coach" in the pure sense (as in a trainer and instructor), or do you mean "coach" as the manager/architect of the team? If you're talking about the former, then you have do a little more in depth analysis. You have to look at how the individual players improve in their abilities under the coach's tutelage, what the coach does given his available resources, etc.

If you are talking about the latter, then it just comes down to how many games he's winning for your school. The reason Les Miles is high on that list (and remember it's a few years old) is not because he's a good "coach" per se. It's because he can recruit a bunch of good players, and simply have more talent than 90% of his opponents. The question is, does that matter to you as a fan of the school? Does winning itself make a coach good, or is winning + other stuff? It sort of depends on your outlook, which can vary.

You don't have to defend every data point to make your point. That data you presented shows a lot of bad records for coaches against ranked teams. So what if Les Miles bucks the trend; that just means he's an outlier.

Good data set...

 

[zipp]

Auburn was #6 when they beat the Cards opening game a few years ago.

You know, another one of those hogwash SEC West teams.

Auburn had a pretty good team, ranking-wise, which I think just underscores Mike's point. When we're losing to higher ranked teams, what's YOUR point?...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Won-lost stats are the truth. You can cherry pick data all you want, but no one steeped in analysis will endorse your conclusions. You're just picking data that tell your story.

Since we're talking SEC, U of L is 7-4 against the SEC over the last six years, which is a 0.636 winning %. That's better than everyone in the SEC but Alabama and Florida on the above list. That's also WITHOUT the benefits of recruiting to the SEC.

Six years is a long 'coma'...

Can't be serious, but he is. How many of those 7 wins in the last six years were against one single bad program - typical bottom feeding UK? Who can forget the win vs A&M when they had to start their 9th string QB?

And why are you moving the goal posts to a six year time frame? Your OP was about Petrino 2.0 timeframe.

He's got wins vs a bad UK program and an A&M program that limped into a bowl game with their 5th string QB.

The games vs Auburn, UGA, and LSU are the key SEC games to point out during Petrino 2.0. How those work out for us? I cherry pick those, as you say... because those are the SEC opponents that had a pulse at the time we played them. And the games were played on neutral fields. I wish I could rewrite history and get a win or two out of those games. And I'm not expecting him to win those games either. The outcomes do count though.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Why aren't you presenting Petrino's entire record against ranked teams? Because it's not as bad??
.

Your thread specifically references what UofL's record is during Petrino round 2 timeframe. You just moved the goalposts by asking to consider his entire resume.

I will allow you to move the goal posts, goal post mover. His entire record does matter, and that's why I don't want him fired or anything silly like that.

His entire record against the T25 isn't that bad, it's kind of in line with many other coaches, certainly better than some. Problem for me, we don't have the 1.0 version, we have the 2.0 version and those #'s aren't the same as the total body of work.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Auburn had a pretty good team, ranking-wise, which I think just underscores Mike's point. When we're losing to higher ranked teams, what's YOUR point?...

Actually, that Auburn team went on to finish the season 2-6 in the SEC and 7-6 overall - mediocre season for most, horrible by their standard.

Auburn wasn't a pretty good team in reality. The fact that the Cards lost to a lower tier SEC team is telling.

I got lots of points. One point is to laugh at your concept of trashing the SEC West's depth when that division is a loaded division with 3 different teams winning a title since 2007.

But really the main point is back to your OP - the cherry picked stats you've provided placing UofL tied for #8 during Petrino 2 era, are misleading. The program is not that good over this time frame. The brutal record vs the ranked teams drags the team back to a back end T20 position. Nothing wrong with that either. But there is a big difference between a T10 and product and what we actually are.

So we disagree about what we're getting in the Petrino 2 era. Which is my biggest point. Like I've said in other threads, the truth lies somewhere between what a hater and sunshine pumper think. I'm coming off like a hater and I'm not. I'm in the middle on it. I just like debating you because you're willing to debate.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Since we're cherry picking, about that A&M-UCLA game, eh?...

How about the SEC West having 3 different teams winning the title in the last 10 years?

Who evaluates a division based on 5 random games not played on neutral fields prior to October?

You do.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

What I gave you at the top of this thread is the COMPLETE data set .

What you gave was a "data set" that did not include some of the games the Cards played vs top tier competition, including games played on neutral fields televised on National TV in key time slots for recruits to see.

The data set eliminated some good moments (ND, A&M) but omitted a few bad moments too.

Petrino has produced a decent product during 2.0 - but the current direction is a bit concerning. I don't know why you find such a common take to be so insulting. It shouldn't be.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Since we're talking SEC, U of L is 7-4 against the SEC over the last six years, which is a 0.636 winning %.

For a guy that doesn't want UK on the schedule, you sure do like to point to their impact here.

 

[CardX]

You win.

What's that famous quote from Dumb and Dumber?

 

[Rollem Cards]

This may be a stretch, but some of the guys on here could be "great" coaches with Alabamas talent.

Nah!

But for a coach with a little bit of ability it shouldn't be too hard to do with 4 stars as back ups I would think.

 

[zipp]

Can't be serious, but he is. How many of those 7 wins in the last six years were against one single bad program - typical bottom feeding UK? Who can forget the win vs A&M when they had to start their 9th string QB?

And why are you moving the goal posts to a six year time frame? Your OP was about Petrino 2.0 timeframe.

He's got wins vs a bad UK program and an A&M program that limped into a bowl game with their 5th string QB.

The games vs Auburn, UGA, and LSU are the key SEC games to point out during Petrino 2.0. How those work out for us? I cherry pick those, as you say... because those are the SEC opponents that had a pulse at the time we played them. And the games were played on neutral fields. I wish I could rewrite history and get a win or two out of those games. And I'm not expecting him to win those games either. The outcomes do count though.

Well, tell me how OTHER teams/coaches have done against the best teams in the SEC. What are their records? And you're suddenly fixated on the SEC which is why I looked at a bigger data set.

That's your problem... You're trying to look at a subset of data--a pretty small one--and draw sweeping conclusions, that Petrino is somehow inferior. And that's bullsh!t. The data at the top of this thread is limited enough, 25-30 games for each team.

Again, I challenge you or anyone else who wants to tout these "ranked teams" as a gauge... Is it OK to trade some wins against unranked teams for better performance against ranked teams? That's the logical takeaway from your argument, and I'll bet your answer is "no". All of this ish needs to hang together...