Now what?

[the artist FKA zipp]

I've been looking at budgets (vs actuals) which IMO more accurately reflects what management is PLANNING. If a budget is systematically in decline or just holding where it is, to me, that indicates more of what management wants to see happen, what it wants to achieve.

Actuals are more about execution which is another matter entirely.

In this case, however, I think we're splitting hairs... The cumulative actuals vs budgets are not that different for the time periods at issue. Using nominal values--not inflation adjusted--actual spending for the six years 2012-2017 inclusive was $1.29 million over the respective budgets.

And for the six years 2018-2023, that variance was $1.31 million over budget.

So execution has been about the same. The difference is that baseball budgets through 2018 went up considerably. In nominal dollars, by almost 75% and well outpacing inflation. Now, we struggle to keep up with inflation when we budget. Again, that's more about planning and whether you're trying to grow and improve these programs...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

All I can say is that if money going into these programs doesn't matter, we ought to be reducing their budgets to zero or as low as possible. There's no sense wasting money to grow and improve sports--through the budgeting process--when it doesn't matter in the end result.

I'd rather pay less money for tickets if the product on the field and court is gonna remain the same.

I'd also like to know how many coaches at U of L--successful or not--agree with that philosophy...

 

[Thecycle27]

I am not saying money doesn’t matter. I am saying the investment in the program isn’t why they haven’t been good since Covid. Your numbers validate there has been a healthy investment. The issue is the talent level in the pitching staff isn’t good. That is back up by actual performance and number of players drafted.

Now could the investment be more sure but I don’t think that would have resulted in better pitchers. Your numbers support that because in 2022-2023 were their biggest revenue year. Yet it was there worst 2 years since he came here.

The issue isn’t the level of investment it is talent acquisition.

 

[2330859]

Agree Mayoman; an investigative report would be one way to provide an explanation, and a pathway to the solution.

No criticism directed at JH as our AD, just pointing out that TJ had UL's program on an upward trend. Like it or not, that is no longer the case.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Agree Mayoman; an investigative report would be one way to provide an explanation, and a pathway to the solution.

No criticism directed at JH as our AD, just pointing out that TJ had UL's program on an upward trend. Like it or not, that is no longer the case.

I just think in terms of baseball, you can point to the transfer portal, NIL, and the extra COVID year.

Dan built his program one way.

Jurich was gone in Fall of 2017
2018 Team went to a Regional, but they were already built before Tom left.
2019 Team went to the College World Series, ok they were built too.
2020 Team would've been our best shot to win it all IMO, that's year 3 after Tom and it was fine
2021 Team just faced way too much COVID adversity for it to matter. Also MLB Minor League contraction begins
2022 Team went to the Super Regional & did fine, we're in year 4 without TJ and things are fine.

But the 2022-2023 Season was truly the first year you started to see the NIL, COVID 5th years start changing recruiting. Transfers become the norm. The level of talent in the game is at an all time high. 5th and 6th year seniors all over the game. Less players are going to the draft because there are less minor league spots and NIL can keep them in college.

Dan likes to build his teams from within. Other programs are taking huge advantage of the portal. College Baseball's talent level used to be a lot younger and not as high, but with more older players hanging around and less marginal guys choosing the draft, you're facing better teams. And baseball is a bit different, because you have the entire year from August through February to get guys acclimated to team. Unlike football or basketball where there's a shorter turnaround to get transfers ready and teaching them plays.

Top mid major players were not going to risk a transfer and having to sit out a year in baseball. Now they're going to flood the power leagues, and leagues with more money like the SEC who care about baseball are going to benefit a lot more. Next year is the last year of the COVID seniors, so it will cool off the talent level.

Also, Dan relying on younger guys is going to face a bit of a downtrend in this era because COVID cost a lot of kids a whole season and summer of development. Think about it like this, guys in their 4th year of college baseball were seniors in 2020, they did not get a senior season of baseball or summer travel ball. Then their freshman year they were very limited in what they could do. Now start thinking about how it changed youth ball and high school ball. So you're seeing guys that might be a bit less developed or need a little more time.

And the article above showed, it's a new game too. Kids really are all in on the analytics. Pro ball trends take time but they'll show up fully after 4-5 years. Homers are up because kids are really focused on the "all or nothing" where strikeouts aren't frowned upon. Kids are throwing hard too. The game is a bit different, so can Dan adjust his model?

 

[earsky]

And say it loud enough for our coach to hear it too. The AD was not just being forgetful when he named every major sport coach with exception to Dan McDonnell in his recent WDRB interview about how accepting they have been of NIL and changes to college athletics.

There's an obvious strain in the relationship between the two. I would only be venturing if it weren't for a conversation I had over the weekend with someone closer than most.

 

[Thecycle27]

The strain is probably tied to Dan wanting facilities and the AD trying to figure out how he is going to pay athletes. Also the AD has to figure out how to keep all the current sports.

Let’s say the NIL budget for all the sports is around $20-22 annually. That is going to impact the investment in facilities. There are only so many big donors.

This isn’t going to be easy and next to impossible if football and basketball don’t turn it around.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I am not saying money doesn’t matter. I am saying the investment in the program isn’t why they haven’t been good since Covid. Your numbers validate there has been a healthy investment. The issue is the talent level in the pitching staff isn’t good. That is back up by actual performance and number of players drafted.

Now could the investment be more sure but I don’t think that would have resulted in better pitchers. Your numbers support that because in 2022-2023 were their biggest revenue year. Yet it was there worst 2 years since he came here.

The issue isn’t the level of investment it is talent acquisition.

You understand that your point is money does matter but it hasn't mattered. That's a paradox which would obviously need explanation.

And you really can't explain it unless you're running the baseball program. You can't cherry pick one situation and make a conclusive argument that money doesn't matter in this one situation. Unless I'm mistaken, that's what you're doing.

If pre Covid is your reference point, my take is we've fallen sufficiently in baseball investments compared to other programs to now be seeing the effects. At least there's data for U of L supporting that thesis. Sure, that's gonna translate somewhere as far as the team and its players are concerned. But just because I can't say lack of money produces this exact result doesn't debunk the relationship between money and performance. It exists...

 

[73Card]

As my previous posts indicate, I am all in with Coach Mac. However, as I sit here watching the College World Series, one thing is obvious. We have no where near the talent necessary to compete at the highest level.
Picking up portal transfers ranked in the low 80's is not going to make the impact we need. With a few exceptions we need a complete roster overhaul.
I just don't know If Mac has the resources NIL monies to do it.

 

[earsky]

The strain is probably tied to Dan wanting facilities and the AD trying to figure out how he is going to pay athletes. Also the AD has to figure out how to keep all the current sports.

Yeah,so in a nutshell,I don’t think Mac cares why the money’s not there,only that it isn’t. So,with that I think the strain comes from - It’s your job,not mine and vice versa. It really just fuels the unease around the program.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I looked further into the graphic on page 1 of this thread, and here's an NCAA summary of attendance. LINK

The season attendance number for U of L in the link (2,052) doesn't exactly match the graphic (1,768). And I'm not deep diving attendance to see what U of L reported in its own stats.

The relative ranking for U of L in the NCAA link was 36th nationally. Again, that's in the vicinity of where this program ranks competitively IMO in 2024.

U of L doesn't drive this stuff anymore. If you want this program to be better, support it with your attendance and your money...

 

[earsky]

U of L doesn't drive this stuff anymore. If you want this program to be better, support it with your attendance and your money...

And although I agree wholeheartedly,I have to wonder aloud about the TV situation,with 90% of our games on some form of ACC coverage,what’s the point of having a contract that keeps folks at home and probably doesn’t pay enough to counter that?

 

[earsky]

Btw folks,healthy and civil conversation about the state of The Program. Everybody here obviously cares about seeing this thing get back on track.

 

[Thecycle27]

You understand that your point is money does matter but it hasn't mattered. That's a paradox which would obviously need explanation.

And you really can't explain it unless you're running the baseball program. You can't cherry pick one situation and make a conclusive argument that money doesn't matter in this one situation. Unless I'm mistaken, that's what you're doing.

If pre Covid is your reference point, my take is we've fallen sufficiently in baseball investments compared to other programs to now be seeing the effects. At least there's data for U of L supporting that thesis. Sure, that's gonna translate somewhere as far as the team and its players are concerned. But just because I can't say lack of money produces this exact result doesn't debunk the relationship between money and performance. It exists...

My position is college sports is player driven. Always has been. For Louisville the quality of players especially pitchers has went down.

You can make the argument other programs have invested more which is true. We don’t know if those investments where directly related to success. Vandy has a huge investment but their results the last 2 years hasn’t been great. He is another one that is big on development.

I would bet Louisville’s baseball budget during amazing run wasn’t bigger than many of the ACC teams. The difference IMO was they rarely missed on recruits.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

What U of L had that they no longer have is trajectory. Momentum. All of the sports did, and just about all have lost it or they've flat lined.

Look no further than our baseball investments. A decade ago, U of L baseball was passing other programs. Now we're falling behind. Does that specifically tell us anything about our starting pitching? No, it's all related.

If you wanna argue that men's basketball and football now have positive momentum, fine. But understand that we had to LOSE most of what we had in order to be showing progress. Our football season ticket sales had to decline by a third. The arena has had to damn near empty out.

In the process, we lost a lot of valuable time and results while other top programs kept marching ahead. When I look at it analytically, I don't think the lost opportunities will ever be recaptured, certainly not in the programs that matter...

 

[Thecycle27]

I agree the root cause to all of funding is the failure in football and basketball during that same time frame.

The current optimism for both sports is tied to player acquisition and retention. They have legit players. Fans understand that plus they trust Brohm. All the enthusiasm around Kelsey is mainly because he landed a damn good roster. He also seems to be all in on winning now.

I am not sure on the future not sure anyone is. My fear is this becomes small market verses big market for all sports like MLB. Louisville has always been at a disadvantage so we will see how it goes.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

We used to be riding that small vs big market dividing line.

We were/are small market numerically, but we aspired to more. And for college sports only, Louisville was not small market. We just don't draw from a geographically large market as the 800-lb gorillas do.

The old "best college sports town in America" slogan.

Maybe I've been missing it, but I see little of that strategic direction now. The individual sports are just cogs in the wheel. Now our priorities are solvency and making payroll...

 

[nccardfan]

I do think there is a lack of overall program promotion and fan engagement. As a former player, even though it was before his time, you would think I would get email-text something encouraging NIL support or season tickets. I have never received an email from the program. The annual golf outing nothing. I have purchased season tickets-did the donation for the new stadium etc. Our group of players are at the age to help but we all need a little nudge from time to time.

They need to understand the promotion of their program never stops.

First of all this is not directed at you personally, but what you are saying is there are donors out there, who understand the financial issues/concerns with baseball, but are just waiting out there to be asked for donations? I think Dan has made it clear what he wants and needs. I think it is usually the other way around, supporters claiming they are being asked for more money all the time. What am I missing?

 

[Thecycle27]

I don’t think any of us know enough about the financial issues of the program to just start writing checks. For example, when he has talked NIL it sounded like he may use it or may not. Kind of similar to KP. Do I want to write a check for that? Nope. Completely different how other coaches have approached NIL. You can nickel and dime yourself into a lot of money with NIL relatively speaking.

Facilities are a different animal my $1000-$2000 doesn’t do anything to get a 20m facility started.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Fund raising means raising funds. There’s an active role in there for whoever is responsible.

No question that the athletic department broadly has that responsibility. My experience is that some coaches volunteer for that more than others.

IMO it has to be driven by the administration. They either do it directly or they engage the coaches.

People tell me the same thing that others are expressing here. Little or no contact with U of L anymore. You shouldn’t have to ring up Heird’s guys and ask where you can mail them a check.

Little wonder we have money issues…

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

The issue is the talent level in the pitching staff isn’t good. That is back up by actual performance and number of players drafted.

Cycle what is the pitching staff looking like next season? Too soon to weigh in?

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

My position is college sports is player driven. Always has been. For Louisville the quality of players especially pitchers has went down.

You can make the argument other programs have invested more which is true. We don’t know if those investments where directly related to success. Vandy has a huge investment but their results the last 2 years hasn’t been great. He is another one that is big on development.

I would bet Louisville’s baseball budget during amazing run wasn’t bigger than many of the ACC teams. The difference IMO was they rarely missed on recruits.

What do you think the top 3 things are that we need to emphasize to turn it around? Do you think this coaching staff can lead in the new era of college sports or do we need a change?

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I don't get into Xs and Os in most sports because I don't have the qualifications. You can see and probably prove (with data) that the baseball team has regressed the last few years in multiple areas besides pitching. Our hitting was good this year, but our clutch hitting was not. Defense and running the bases have too often been underwhelming.

In 2024, I'm the last guy who will support a coaching change in any U of L sport where there has been proven results like baseball. We have no idea whether we will improve with a coaching change. And no way I'd take a chance offloading CDM or one of his staff with that uncertainty. These guys need to figure it out, and I have to be patient and keep supporting the team...

 

[Bardman]

For pitching…I think Forbes, Hartman and Detmers are all going to be fine. Can West and Starke improve? Does Biven keep the closer role? He could pitch twice on a weekend and even during the midweek. That group is solid. I am unsure how the RS FR will workout. Many of the FR pitchers bailed.

 

[earsky]

For pitching…I think Forbes, Hartman and Detmers are all going to be fine. Can West and Starke improve? Does Biven keep the closer role? He could pitch twice on a weekend and even during the midweek. That group is solid. I am unsure how the RS FR will workout. Many of the FR pitchers bailed.

I'm not sure we're ever gonna have a season like the pandemic shortened 2020 season where the stars were in total alignment before the first pitch was ever thrown. Leading off the weekend with Detmers,followed by Miller on Saturday and Albanese on Sunday (which is how I remember Sunday) with Kieran going midweek. Man,I'd love to see that again. Interesting thought about Biven @ Bardman. His stints got a little longer towards the end for whatever reason. He may make a push to crack that weekend rotation.

 

[Bardman]

As far as Biven goes…yep, the thought a out that too. But, if I can get him on the mound multiple times during the week for 1 or 2 innings I think I go that route. Let him close or let him stop a potential big inning.

 

[Thecycle27]

What do you think the top 3 things are that we need to emphasize to turn it around? Do you think this coaching staff can lead in the new era of college sports or do we need a change?

To me they have to get NIL right. I would ask his former players to do what Kueber did for basketball. Have them make a 250k-$500k donation to the circle then do a campaign to match. Try to get NIL around $1m-2m a year. Again don’t know the market so that is hard to say.

Transfers-always be in position the land veteran starters. At least 2-3 a year. That would allow you to develop the younger guys.

Facilities would be 3rd. Scale down your practice facility wants to meet you real needs.

Get back to evaluating kids that fit your culture.

 

[Thecycle27]

Cycle what is the pitching staff looking like next season? Too soon to weigh in?

Too soon but I like the ISU addition to the staff. I would say they need 2-3 more legit starters from the portal.

I think Forbes is your next closer. Legit MLB arm just has to learn how to pitch. Which I can say about a lot of the young guys. I really like the kid from Saint X. Funky delivery hard to pick up his release point. He will be a nightmare for lefties. He will get in the 90’s once his body fills out. He needs a good 30lbs.

My eyes are on the portal pitching wise they kill it there—-I will feel good about next year.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Too soon but I like the ISU addition to the staff. I would say they need 2-3 more legit starters from the portal.

I think Forbes is your next closer. Legit MLB arm just has to learn how to pitch. Which I can say about a lot of the young guys. I really like the kid from Saint X. Funky delivery hard to pick up his release point. He will be a nightmare for lefties. He will get in the 90’s once his body fills out. He needs a good 30lbs.

My eyes are on the portal pitching wise they kill it there—-I will feel good about next year.

I didn't get to follow the team as much as I would have liked. Did we have any key injuries or have guys playing hurt that get a fresh start next year?

 

[Thecycle27]

Not really Leggit and Anderson probably hurt the most. I will say if Leggit was right the starting rotation wouldn’t have been great but solid. The Sunday slot was a disaster.

Maybe when I get time I will list all the pitchers since Covid. The drop is alarming.

Go back through the years they have always had 3 legit starters and a weekday starter. This year they had 2 legit starters and awful Sunday/weekday starters.

 

[earsky]

As far as Biven goes…yep, the thought a out that too. But, if I can get him on the mound multiple times during the week for 1 or 2 innings I think I go that route. Let him close or let him stop a potential big inning.

Yes,my bad. I missed that in your post. Great point about Tuck.

 

[earsky]

Btw,I fully expect the Frosh and Sophomores that stayed to really move up in their performances on the rubber. I think we know a lot of these youngsters are talented. Time to bring it!

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

To me they have to get NIL right. I would ask his former players to do what Kueber did for basketball. Have them make a 250k-$500k donation to the circle then do a campaign to match. Try to get NIL around $1m-2m a year. Again don’t know the market so that is hard to say.

Transfers-always be in position the land veteran starters. At least 2-3 a year. That would allow you to develop the younger guys.

Facilities would be 3rd. Scale down your practice facility wants to meet you real needs.

Get back to evaluating kids that fit your culture.

You don't need whales writing checks. If a few hundred people gave baseball the money that I do, you'd have those dollar amounts.

This administration doesn't do its job raising money. Never has, which is why we're in dire straits.

If you have money, the other stuff falls into place, players and facilities. Everything starts with the money we no longer have. Time for the people responsible to be held to some level of accountability...

 

[2330859]

Regrettably it’s all about the money; in this case it’s the Lackthereof.

 

[nccardfan]

As far as Biven goes…yep, the thought a out that too. But, if I can get him on the mound multiple times during the week for 1 or 2 innings I think I go that route. Let him close or let him stop a potential big inning.

I think a big issue with Biven is that he was really good for 1-2 innings but when Dan tried to stretch him for more, he wasn't as efficient. What I have noticed in the games I have seen in Omaha is that coaches trust more of their pitchers (maybe out of necessity) than Roger does. We seem to go to the same guys over and over. Maybe thats the reason why we saw a lot of FR pitchers leaving for the portal. Need to develop an entire pitching staff not just 6-7 guys.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I haven’t seen many of our recent pitchers that I “trust.” But you have to put someone on the mound.

And I wouldn’t confuse trust and the lack thereof. If we leave a guy out there, it may be that we don’t trust the next guy we could put in…

 

[Thecycle27]

I think their lack of trust in the staff was legitimate. It didn’t matter who they put in they weren’t good against the better ACC teams.

When a pitcher gets lit up after 2-3 innings there are multiple things that could be going on. Their stuff isn’t that good, they have a tell, they lost their control or pitch sequencing is predictable. Bevin is a heavy slider and fastball. His issues were more on being able to locate his slider. When he lost his ability to locate it he always got into trouble. His slider is legit it has a excellent spin rate.

 

[earsky]

I think it was a calculated gamble by Williams and Mac to redshift half of the Freshmen pitchers and go with the 3 and 4 year guys...for more than one reason. We can only hope the front end of that can be overcome with the Freshmen pitchers bolting.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

 

[Thecycle27]

Louisville roster was similar to the rest of the country. It really was a veteran group. The issue was the veterans weren’t great or good especially when it came to pitching. The reality is the older guys didn’t develop like they hoped. Koger, Grundy, Phillips, Corbett and Legitt weren’t good. How did none of these guys get better and in some cases got worse. I also get why the staff redshirted freshman pitchers hard to imagine all these guys sucking.

The staff is probably thinking the same thing.