I answered your question or one like it previously. You either didn't get the message or you don't like the answer...
Previously, the context of the LPT rebuttal was that it doesn't necessarily mean that the other teams' rosters are that skewed with 5-star talent. But that would only be true if LPT's 5-star roster attrition was significantly higher than other schools. That is, if LPT had a lot more true OAD guys.
So, I deep-dived the LPT and Duke recruit data... As of the date of the analysis--which was just a few months ago--the average LPT 5-star kid spends about 1-1/2 years on the roster. The average Duke kid's tenure is a tad more, just under two years.
IIRC, LPT has an average of about eight 5-star kids on its roster at a given point in time vs. five for Duke. Keep in mind that Duke is 2nd best in the country in that regard.
And of course, Duke has two titles in that timespan vs. one for LPT.
Clearly, LPT has dominant talent. And LPT fans are fixated on, mesmerized by recruiting. So Pitino Lite gets a pass among LPT nation. But the results can't be reconciled.
"Elite program", my a$$...
I will applaud you for accurately summarizing the counter argument. That doesn't always happen on message boards. That doesn't go unappreciated.
But where the heck did you get 8 and 5? Those are way off.
Five stars on Cal's rosters: ('10 up to '15 season): 5, 4, 6 (harrow's transfer year), 5, 7, 9. That is an average of *drum roll* - exactly
6 five-stars per roster.
For Duke, I'm not going to go all the way back, because unlike UK, I can't just look at their rosters and tell you who was a five star, so it would take substantially longer. So if I'm wrong and you feel compelled to smack me with numbers that go further back, I welcome the attempt -
but I'm certain you're understating Duke's numbers, as well - They tied us with the all time record of 9 burger boys last year, not sure how many five stars, but c'mon... and the year before that, I know they had 7 five stars (the freshmen trio, plus Hood, Sulaimon, Jefferson, Dawkins).
That's two years right there - a third of the time frame in question, so to get the average all the way down to 5, there would've had to have been some doozies in the years before with only 2 or 3 five stars at most. You and I both know that's not the case. 5 is probably the minimum they've had at any point in that span, meaning the average is substantially higher. And on a side note, this year they have at least 7 or 8 five stars once again. They brought in four new ones and only lost 3.
Worst case scenario, they have the average down around 5.5 or something, that's still only 1/2 difference between UK and Duke.
So yes, your measure of five stars per roster was a good step in evaluating the situation more accurately, but the numbers you threw out were either miscalculated or dishonest. The average is 6 for UK (go check the rosters) probably around 6 for Duke, around 5 for Kansas, not sure about the UNC numbers, but I know before the scandal smoke started to rise, they were still killing it - they were preseason #1 over us in the '12 season, and as you might recall, pundits were touting that they had the same amount of HS talent as we did but with more experience. Now obviously, that fails to factor in what Davis turned into, but the point remains the same regarding HS talent Roy had acquired. And I know he's had at least one class with 3 different five stars since then.
So when you actually look at the numbers in a way that is meaningful and accurate, you understand that he enjoys little or no five star advantage over K, an advantage of maybe 1 extra five star over other elite recruiters' rosters, and maybe 2 extra against sub elite recruiting schools like Florida and UCONN and OSU who probably average closer to 4 (since they stick around longer)
THAT is there are problems with your presentation. Either you have a very faulty memory, or you're being willfully dishonest. Neither the graph nor the ratio you attempted to recall gives anything close to an accurate summary of what's been going on.
You say the results can't be reconciled, but there's nothing to reconcile once we look at the actual numbers.
So yes, Cal has had the most talent, a similar amount to K, whom he split the series with. And he has a dramatic winning record against most other coaches, including nearly all of the legends. But he hasn't been running around with twice as much talent as the other top schools, and everybody else on the scene haven't been helpless kittens - there are multiple others with burger boys to spare. And he's produced as well as anyone has produced in CBB history in his first 6 years at a new school. Bad coaches don't do that.
You want to see squandered talent, go look at Barnes or Pastner or Leonard Hamilton or Lorenzo Romar. Hell, Self is a much better candidate for the title than Cal.
Crappy coaches don't average 30 wins a season and make the tourney five straight years at a mid major with one tourney appearance in history - they don't split the series with the '96 friggin' wildcats coached by Rick Pitino, including a 10 point victory where Rick has one of the most talented rosters of all time, and Cal has
two guys on the roster who had high major offers. Even if that coach paid for those two guys with giant bags of cocaine - It just makes zero sense to say that he sucks at coaching.
I get sports hate, and I get wanting your rivals to lose. But for many, it's not enough that you want the rival coach to lose - you have to also say he's a really bad guy, doesn't care about his players, is a huge ass in person, kicks puppies, cheats on his wife, would slit your throat for a dollar, sucks at coaching, probably has ED, etc. It's so silly. I don't get it when UK fans do it to Rick, either.
A coach is almost invariably somewhere between what his fanbase and the rival fanbase thinks of him. A flawed human who teaches kids how to play a sport. Good aspects, bad aspects, the whole deal. Just like everybody else.