Coaching suggestions...

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

I literally showed every game he's coached. I can't cherry pick any less than that. His record in the ACC is 21-11. His record vs ACC opponents that finished with 7+ wins is 9-10.

Does the 21-11 place UofL 3rd overall behind Clemson and FSU over the same time frame? If you're talking context, you'd want to compare those #'s against the other teams?

If UofL is sitting 6th or 7th compared to the other ACC team's league records you'll have a good argument. If you're telling us 21-11 puts them in 3rd behind Clemson and FSU then I don't think that stat helps your argument.

But I don't know the #'s... would take a little time to research.

 

[nccardfan]

Small sample size. If one of your requirements is to never lose to UK, then you’re going to have a coaching carousel and a losing program.

Over time, a 9 win per year average will result in a few conference and/or division titles. Yes, it hasn’t so far, but it’s only been 4 years in stint 2.

I didn’t say never lose to UK but under your scenario, you’re suggesting we win all of our conference games but lose our 3 nonconference games? Highly unlikely.

 

[EKYCard643]

Does the 21-11 place UofL 3rd overall behind Clemson and FSU over the same time frame? If you're talking context, you'd want to compare those #'s against the other teams?

If UofL is sitting 6th or 7th compared to the other ACC team's league records you'll have a good argument. If you're telling us 21-11 puts them in 3rd behind Clemson and FSU then I don't think that stat helps your argument.

But I don't know the #'s... would take a little time to research.

Does that matter? I mean, 3rd is exactly where UL should be. I think thats the exact mentality I'm targeting here with these stats. Obviously Petrino hasn't been a failure in his 2nd tenure, but he's also not exceeded any expectations nor moved the program up the pecking order in 5 years. His record shows he beats the worst teams on the schedule, he's pretty good against the mediocre teams, he's 11-6 against teams with 7-8 wins...and he's abysmal against the best teams on the schedule as he's 1-11 against teams with 9+ wins with nearly all of those losses coming by 2+ TDs.

My point in all that schedule breakdown is that win/loss % doesn't tell you anything unless you put into context who exactly he's beating. If you schedule 3 FCS teams and then get railed by UGA, you're still 3-1 but that doesn't make you a good team. Simply winning the games you shouldn't lose doesn't mean much. I do think Petrino has done a good job holding things together and posting the record he has with so much staff turnover, injuries and consistently ranking in the bottom for penalties and turnovers. But on the flip side, he should also be fixing all those issues too and we shouldn't be dealing with the same problems in year 5 that we had in year 1.

 

[zipp]

...His record vs ACC opponents that finished with 7+ wins is 9-10.

There's nothing significant in that stat, it's just a stat. We've won 7-9 games each year during the regular season. Given enough data, of course, our record should be close to breakeven against teams with 7+ wins.

And if it was better, his record against teams with <7 wins would be WORSE. Is that what you want?

You know how to calculate the stats, you just don't know how to interpret them...

 

[zipp]

Does the 21-11 place UofL 3rd overall behind Clemson and FSU over the same time frame? If you're talking context, you'd want to compare those #'s against the other teams?

If UofL is sitting 6th or 7th compared to the other ACC team's league records you'll have a good argument. If you're telling us 21-11 puts them in 3rd behind Clemson and FSU then I don't think that stat helps your argument.

But I don't know the #'s... would take a little time to research.

I've been tracking Petrino's record against the ACC. Since joining, we are in sole possession of SECOND place in overall win percentage. And we've been IMPROVING on that stat each year...

 

[zipp]

You know Zipp, he's right...

My better talent is recognizing who's wrong...

 

[zipp]

Petrino 1.0 records in RED...

Just some data that better breaks down Petrino 2.0s record instead of simply quoting an out of context win/loss record.

Best wins
- FSU - 2016 - 10-3
- Notre Dame 2014 - 8-5
- NC State 2014 - 8-5
- TAMU 2015 - 8-5

Petrino's record vs gimme teams = 8-0
Petrino's record vs teams with a winning record = 12-17 13-8
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with a losing record - 15-1
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 8+ wins - 4-14 3-5

(# of wins represents the # of wins they ended the season with)
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 2 wins = 1-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 3 wins = 6-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 4 wins = 5-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 5 wins = 2-1
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 6 wins = 1-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 7 wins = 8-3 0-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 8 wins = 3-3 1-0
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 9 wins = 0-3 0-1
Petrino's record vs P5 teams with 10+ wins = 1-9 2-4

What this shows is that he really only has one "bad" loss. UVA in 2014. Losing to UK in 2016 was embarrassing but at least that team went to a bowl. Obviously the concerning aspect is the 4-15 record vs teams with 8+ wins and the fact that his teams are allowing over 40 points and losing by more than 2 touchdowns to ranked opponents.

Much more limited data with Petrino 1.0 due to conference affiliation and weaker schedule. But not vastly different results for P5 teams...

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Does that matter? I mean, 3rd is exactly where UL should be. I think thats the exact mentality I'm targeting here with these stats. Obviously Petrino hasn't been a failure in his 2nd tenure, but he's also not exceeded any expectations nor moved the program up the pecking order in 5 years.

Wow dude what metric are you using to validate 3rd is right where UofL "should" be?


According to the AP All-Time Top 100, UofL is greatly exceeding the program's all-time position.

All-Time Rankings...

#9 FSU
#13 Miami
#19 Clemson
#24 Pitt
#27 G Tech
#28 V Tech
#37 UNC
#40 Cuse
#52 VA
#53 Duke
#56 NC St
#58 BC and UofL tied


You just don't know the history of the program. That's why all your stats don't add up. You think they "should" be in 3rd but based on history they shouldn't be close to 3rd.

UofL should NOT be ahead of Miami, for example. And they shouldn't be close to FSU either.

 

[EKYCard643]

My comment about where UL "should be" is more related to the last 20ish years of football. Obviously UL isn't going to stack up if you compare every programs last 100 years.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. You guys have valid points and maybe this all gets corrected and UL wins out...who knows. I'm simply frustrated that we continue to be embarrassed by the best teams on our schedule and that I'm yelling at my TV about ball security, dropped passes and penalties for the 5th year in a row.

At the absolute very least I wanted to see a roster full of Petrino guys be able to execute with precision and be able to challenge the best teams on the schedule.

I hope we win out and this was all just a dumb blip on the radar. We'll see, but just like the guys at ESPN 680 said yesterday, Petrino has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to that line of thinking.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

My comment about where UL "should be" is more related to the last 20ish years of football.

Cards aren't 3rd using that metric either. They are at best 5th last 20 yrs.

Cards- 2 top 10s, 8 top 25s
Canes- 1 title, 1 runner-up, 4 top 10s, 11 top 25s
V tech- 1 runner up, 5 top 10s, 15 top 25s

No need to look up Clemson and fsu...we really aren't close to Miami or V Tech

Your heart is in the right place but your perspective is a little off.

 

[Morgantown Card]

My comment about where UL "should be" is more related to the last 20ish years of football. Obviously UL isn't going to stack up if you compare every programs last 100 years.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. You guys have valid points and maybe this all gets corrected and UL wins out...who knows. I'm simply frustrated that we continue to be embarrassed by the best teams on our schedule and that I'm yelling at my TV about ball security, dropped passes and penalties for the 5th year in a row.

At the absolute very least I wanted to see a roster full of Petrino guys be able to execute with precision and be able to challenge the best teams on the schedule.

I hope we win out and this was all just a dumb blip on the radar. We'll see, but just like the guys at ESPN 680 said yesterday, Petrino has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to that line of thinking.

I am being redundant but no one seems to acknowledge this: The whole starting line up is full of freshmen and sophomores. There is going to be a nice build over the next 3 seasons. Rebuilds happen to everyone not Alabama coached by Saban. Recruiting, on paper, is the best it has ever been and yes okay diamonds in the rough but a look at the Top 25 year after year shows that recruiting on paper matters and matters a lot. You have to accept these things as facts.

 

[MDCardsFan]

I'll name 3 names and none of the 3 is Brohm.

1. Gary Patterson (TCU)

2. Mike Gundy (OK State)

3. Neal Brown (Troy)

Thoughts?

 

[EKYCard643]

I feel like I'm coming off more confrontational than I intend to be.

I hope Petrino works out and the program ascends the national college football hierarchy. I'm frustrated and I'm sure everyone on here is frustrated by some things but we could be doing much worse.

 

[PushupMan]

Does the 21-11 place UofL 3rd overall behind Clemson and FSU over the same time frame? If you're talking context, you'd want to compare those #'s against the other teams?

If UofL is sitting 6th or 7th compared to the other ACC team's league records you'll have a good argument. If you're telling us 21-11 puts them in 3rd behind Clemson and FSU then I don't think that stat helps your argument.

But I don't know the #'s... would take a little time to research.

Phil Steele has this data, sort of. He lists the ACC conference records of every team over the last 5 years (UofL has of course only been in it for 4, so Maryland's 3-5 record for its last year in the conference is also listed). UofL is indeed 3rd, behind Clemson and FSU:

Clemson 35-5
FSU 30-10
Louisville 21-11
Miami 25-15
Virginia Tech 23-17
North Carolina 22-18
Pittsburgh 21-19
Georgia Tech 20-20
Duke 19-21
Maryland 3-5
NC State 15-25
BC 14-26
Syracuse 11-29
Wake Forest 11-29
Virginia 10-30

And okay ... I will finally come out and state my feelings without holding back on this issue. The above data points to the ridiculousness of replacing Petrino, but here is the truly asinine part of any suggestion about replacing him AT THIS POINT: we just spent $63 million to add 5400 seats, but MORE IMPORTANTLY to the student athletes to upgrade training facilities to what almost certainly is the very best in the ACC. Certainly the newest. Yet now some of our fans want to replace a coach who is very highly regarded in the profession and who also successfully recruited and crafted an offense around the first Heisman Trophy winner in school history.

Have some freaking vision for God's sake. Shut the hell up about replacing Petrino with somebody who isn't named either Saban or Swinney and at least give him three years of recruiting classes like the one we just had ... to capitalize on the facilities upgrades. We've given him everything he needs to win an ACC title. Now let's see whether he can bring in the type of talent that will allow him to surpass Florida State and catch up to Clemson.

 

[PushupMan]

Two additional points:

- First, for those who are frustrated at watching the same mistakes from the UofL football team every year: I used to have this same frustration, until I realized that the players I was watching are not the same ones I watched make those mistakes four years earlier. Yes, that's kind of a silly and obvious point, but one that is a pretty important one to come to terms with. You and I stay with the program over the course of our lifetime, while the 18-22 year olds playing for UofL change, and each new student athlete has to learn from making the same mistakes that we witnessed their predecessors make.

-Second, answer this question: the last time we gave Petrino the very best facilities in the conference, what was he able to do with that advantage?

If you answered: "two conference championships and two bowl wins, including an Orange Bowl championship." Then you answered correctly. And hopefully, you get the point as to why we should give the man the benefit of whatever doubts we are having currently.

 

[wilkie01]

I've been tracking Petrino's record against the ACC. Since joining, we are in sole possession of SECOND place in overall win percentage. And we've been IMPROVING on that stat each year...

Come on now we struggled beat Indiana State and WKU. Alabama destroyed us. We have not won an ACC game yet so the now comparison is worthless at this point in time!

 

[wilkie01]

Two additional points:

- First, for those who are frustrated at watching the same mistakes from the UofL football team every year: I used to have this same frustration, until I realized that the players I was watching are not the same ones I watched make those mistakes four years earlier. Yes, that's kind of a silly and obvious point, but one that is a pretty important one to come to terms with. You and I stay with the program over the course of our lifetime, while the 18-22 year olds playing for UofL change, and each new student athlete has to learn from making the same mistakes that we witnessed their predecessors make.

-Second, answer this question: the last time we gave Petrino the very best facilities in the conference, what was he able to do with that advantage?

If you answered: "two conference championships and two bowl wins, including an Orange Bowl championship." Then you answered correctly. And hopefully, you get the point as to why we should give the man the benefit of whatever doubts we are having currently.

Well said. But he better start delivering soon.

 

[nccardfan]

I'll name 3 names and none of the 3 is Brohm.

1. Gary Patterson (TCU)

2. Mike Gundy (OK State)

3. Neal Brown (Troy)

Thoughts?

First off, Patterson is not leaving TCU, at least not for U of L. Don’t think he could recruit Texas kids there. He’s already got a tie in to the CFP. He had an opportunity to go to the Longhorns. If he passed that up, don’t see him coming here.

Mike Grundy is at his dream job. Grew up and played QB at Oklahoma St. No way does he leave his comfort zone.

Neal Brown is just a big drop off from the other two. Maybe he’s an upcoming coach but he’s not an improvement over CBP, at least not yet.

If you want names, I’ll throw one out just to show there are some out there when the time comes. Gene Chizik, although he may be waiting to see if Dan Mullen fails.

 

[wilkie01]

First off, Patterson is not leaving TCU, at least not for U of L. Don’t think he could recruit Texas kids there. He’s already got a tie in to the CFP. He had an opportunity to go to the Longhorns. If he passed that up, don’t see him coming here.

Mike Grundy is at his dream job. Grew up and played QB at Oklahoma St. No way does he leave his comfort zone.

Neal Brown is just a big drop off from the other two. Maybe he’s an upcoming coach but he’s not an improvement over CBP, at least not yet.

If you want names, I’ll throw one out just to show there are some out there when the time comes. Gene Chizik, although he may be waiting to see if Dan Mullen fails.

Please provide some more information on Gene Chizik and Dan Mullen.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Mike Gundy is also a man. He is 40.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Well. Gundy was 40.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Mike Gundy is also a man. He is 40.

Gundy was a bro with a sweet mullet.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Please provide some more information on Gene Chizik and Dan Mullen.

Neither have spent time in a Turkish prison.

 

[zipp]

Phil Steele has this data, sort of. He lists the ACC conference records of every team over the last 5 years (UofL has of course only been in it for 4, so Maryland's 3-5 record for its last year in the conference is also listed). UofL is indeed 3rd, behind Clemson and FSU:

Clemson 35-5
FSU 30-10
Louisville 21-11
Miami 25-15
Virginia Tech 23-17
North Carolina 22-18
Pittsburgh 21-19
Georgia Tech 20-20
Duke 19-21
Maryland 3-5
NC State 15-25
BC 14-26
Syracuse 11-29
Wake Forest 11-29
Virginia 10-30

And okay ... I will finally come out and state my feelings without holding back on this issue. The above data points to the ridiculousness of replacing Petrino, but here is the truly asinine part of any suggestion about replacing him AT THIS POINT: we just spent $63 million to add 5400 seats, but MORE IMPORTANTLY to the student athletes to upgrade training facilities to what almost certainly is the very best in the ACC. Certainly the newest. Yet now some of our fans want to replace a coach who is very highly regarded in the profession and who also successfully recruited and crafted an offense around the first Heisman Trophy winner in school history.

Have some freaking vision for God's sake. Shut the hell up about replacing Petrino with somebody who isn't named either Saban or Swinney and at least give him three years of recruiting classes like the one we just had ... to capitalize on the facilities upgrades. We've given him everything he needs to win an ACC title. Now let's see whether he can bring in the type of talent that will allow him to surpass Florida State and catch up to Clemson.

Here are the conference records thru this past weekend for regular season games since 2014, U of L's entry into the ACC and Petrino's return...

Clemson 28-4 (0.875)
Louisville 21-11 (0.656)
Florida State 22-12 (0.647)
Miami 20-12 (0.625)
Virginia Tech 19-14 (0.576)
Pitt 19-14 (0.576)
No Carolina 18-14 (0.563)
NC State 15-17 (0.469)
Georgia Tech 15-18 (0.455)
Duke 13-19 (0.406)
Boston Coll 11-22 (0.333)
Virginia 10-22 (0.313)
Wake Forest 9-24 (0.273)
Cuse 8-25 (0.242)

 

[PushupMan]

Well said. But he better start delivering soon.

Very true ... but keep in mind that this year all of the young guys might take their lumps. People who think that next year won't be better are not paying attention to the roster. Just 10 seniors play regularly, compared with 16 juniors and 21 sophomores.

 

[Knucklehank1]

First off, Patterson is not leaving TCU, at least not for U of L. Don’t think he could recruit Texas kids there. He’s already got a tie in to the CFP. He had an opportunity to go to the Longhorns. If he passed that up, don’t see him coming here.

Mike Grundy is at his dream job. Grew up and played QB at Oklahoma St. No way does he leave his comfort zone.

Neal Brown is just a big drop off from the other two. Maybe he’s an upcoming coach but he’s not an improvement over CBP, at least not yet.

If you want names, I’ll throw one out just to show there are some out there when the time comes. Gene Chizik, although he may be waiting to see if Dan Mullen fails.

Mike Gundy has come very close to leaving Ok St because he and the administration don’t see eye to eye. My concern with Gundy are the recruiting violations that were alleged a few years ago.

 

[gocds]

Mike Gundy has come very close to leaving Ok St because he and the administration don’t see eye to eye. My concern with Gundy are the recruiting violations that were alleged a few years ago.

As in any case, alleged is the key word. I’m not sure about Gundy but I don’t really know him. But I do know about Bobby Petrino and I think the stats prove that he’s doing a good job here at UofL. There ARE those that don’t like him for any number of reasons but being a bad coach is a proven ridiculous reason to dislike him.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[Rollem Cards]

I'm convinced that it doesn't matter WHO we hire, recruiting will still be difficult. A lot of history supports that.

We could hire Saban and he won't recruit here nearly as well as he does at Bama. He didn't at Mich St. He recruited at LSU better than Mich St, but not as good as Bama.

Why? Geography

LSU and Bama are closer to the southern (best) recruits than MSU. Or U of L.

Even though we're recruiting "better" it is still relative. The Sugar Bowl didn't bump recruiting. The ACC didn't. The Heisman didn't. A new coach won't.

We're simply geographically challenged. We need to worry about out recruiting WF, NCST, UNC, VT. They are closer to the recruits. We have beat them to manage to fight for third, and a chance for more, in the ACC regularly

 

[Cardinal Cash]

Defensive minded coaches aren’t fan appealing. Our fan base needs points and an exciting offense. Charlie ball was boring. Effective, yes, especially since Teddy was running the offense, but butts in seats it did not bring.

I love defense. It’s always fun to watch your team shut down and frustrate an opposing offense. The sack and the kick off return for TD are some of the most exciting plays in sports. The QB must go down and he must go down hard as they say.

 

[Cardinal Cash]

My comment about where UL "should be" is more related to the last 20ish years of football. Obviously UL isn't going to stack up if you compare every programs last 100 years.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. You guys have valid points and maybe this all gets corrected and UL wins out...who knows. I'm simply frustrated that we continue to be embarrassed by the best teams on our schedule and that I'm yelling at my TV about ball security, dropped passes and penalties for the 5th year in a row.

At the absolute very least I wanted to see a roster full of Petrino guys be able to execute with precision and be able to challenge the best teams on the schedule.

I hope we win out and this was all just a dumb blip on the radar. We'll see, but just like the guys at ESPN 680 said yesterday, Petrino has lost the benefit of the doubt when it comes to that line of thinking.

Don’t hold your breath on winning out. But find the silver lining if we get 8 wins. That should be the goal this year and always should have been the goal post LJ and losing 9 starters on D.

 

[beantowncard]

They’re both assistants and the majority of assistants (especially at their level) wants a shot at their own program and path. I think either guy is very attainable.

If either guy was attainable they would have been head coaches long ago.

 

[beantowncard]

Does that matter? I mean, 3rd is exactly where UL should be. I think thats the exact mentality I'm targeting here with these stats. Obviously Petrino hasn't been a failure in his 2nd tenure, but he's also not exceeded any expectations nor moved the program up the pecking order in 5 years. His record shows he beats the worst teams on the schedule, he's pretty good against the mediocre teams, he's 11-6 against teams with 7-8 wins...and he's abysmal against the best teams on the schedule as he's 1-11 against teams with 9+ wins with nearly all of those losses coming by 2+ TDs.

My point in all that schedule breakdown is that win/loss % doesn't tell you anything unless you put into context who exactly he's beating. If you schedule 3 FCS teams and then get railed by UGA, you're still 3-1 but that doesn't make you a good team. Simply winning the games you shouldn't lose doesn't mean much. I do think Petrino has done a good job holding things together and posting the record he has with so much staff turnover, injuries and consistently ranking in the bottom for penalties and turnovers. But on the flip side, he should also be fixing all those issues too and we shouldn't be dealing with the same problems in year 5 that we had in year 1.

So you’re saying that it is more likely we lose to good teams than to bad teams. How do you think all those 9+ wins teams got their 9+ wins?

 

[gocds]

The best, and most obvious, example of getting to a “winning” record is just down the road from UofL. In fact, only about 80 miles to the east. If it weren’t for OOC easy games they would rarely ever have a winning record because the only $ec teams they defeat regularly is Vandy. They throw in USCjr and Old Myth from time to time but they are real good at beating up on the EKUs and Murrray States of the world with a MAC school thrown in there from time to time. This should be the focus of this debate. NOT whether Bobby Petrino is a failure. Simply ridiculous. Just remember that nobody, but nobody beats uahkay 32 times in a row.

GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!

 

[MikeMcCammon]

So you’re saying that it is more likely we lose to good teams than to bad teams. How do you think all those 9+ wins teams got their 9+ wins?

By beating teams like us.

 

[zipp]

By beating teams like us.

Some teams are better than us. Brilliance.

I'm still waiting for a can't-beat-good-teams whiner to tell me which win he would trade last year for a win over Clemson. Or the year before that. Nothing but crickets...

 

[Knucklehank1]

Purdue up 23-7 on BC at half. Nice first half for Brohm.