ACC - By the Numbers

[ajgcardman]

Here are the September numbers for all ACC teams:

For those that don't know what the "numbers" I talk about are, they are......
The Sum of two numerical analyses being 1) the number of points, on average, scored "above" what their opponent has given up per game this year, and 2) the number of points, on average, their defense has held their opponent "below" what they have scored per game this year. The team "numbers" for each team are listed in parentheses below.

1. Miami (+25.2)
2. Louisville (+22.1)
3. Virginia Tech (+16.4)
4. Clemson (+15.8)
5. SMU (+14.3)
6. Syracuse (+10.0)
7. Duke (+9.7)
8. UNC (+9.0)
9. Virginia (+8.3)
10. Boston College (+8.0)
11. Pitt (+7.9)
12tie California (+7.3)
NC State (+7.3)
14. Ga Tech (+7.2)
15. Wake Forest (+6.3)
16. FSU (+5.4)
17. Stanford (+1.2)

A couple of thoughts about these numbers:

• It's early October, meaning the sample size is still too small and, as a result, some teams are over or under rated due to schedule strength
• Stabilization will quickly occur in a couple more weeks after all teams have some conf/non-conf and home/away games w a more similar schedule strength
• Of the teams above, Duke and UNC are likely to drop a bit, and Ga Tech will likely rise a bit.
• Boston College played without their QB (who is vital to them) last week; their number without him last week was a +1, while with him they averaged +10.3. He is supposed to return to the lineup this week.

Here are the predicted results based solely on the Numbers.

Louisville over SMU 35-28
Virginia over BC 24-22 (careful w this one, w BC QB back, result would flip)
Pitt over UNC 39-37
NC St over Wake 36-32
Va Tech over Stanford 31-20
Clemson over FSU 35-21
Duke over GTech 24-23 (careful on Duke due to their very weak schedule to date)
Miami over CAL 31-14