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Fact or Fiction from Mike Farrell

Fact or Fiction: Canes ACC title, USC playoff and Shough to show out​

Story by Mike Farrell
• 9h •

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In today’s Fact or Fiction I look at three big recent topics in college football and decide whether the statement is indeed FACT or if it’s FICTION.

1. It’s ACC title or bust for Mario Cristobal.

Farrell’s take: FICTION

Let’s pump the brakes. Cristobal is 12-13 so far at Miami and fans are getting impatient as expected. And with the hype surrounding QB Cam Ward and Mario’s recruiting so far, people expect an ACC title. But I still think this team is a year away from ACC title contention and is a 8-4 or 9-3 team that falls short of Clemson, FSU and Louisville. While Cristobal has done a solid job reshaping this roster, which was really bad at QB, WR and along the OL, it’s still not ready for prime time yet.

2. USC is a playoff contender.

Farrell’s take: FICTION

Lincoln Riley
needs a bounce back season. The defense will be improved a bit with new coaches but without Caleb Williams bailing this team out, how can we expect a playoff run? The Big Ten will be tougher, the schedule is rough with LSU, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame and the adjustment to the physicality in the trenches in the Big Ten could be rough. Miller Moss won’t be bad and they have talent but a step backwards has to happen on offense. They could be 6-6 or 7-5 honestly.

3. Tyler Shough redemption is coming.

Farrell’s take: FACT

The Louisville quarterback has been around forever and has played at Oregon and Texas Tech. Remember in 2021 when he was actually considered a pre-season round one NFL Draft sleeper? Many don’t. As a 6-5, 225-pound kid with a live arm coming off some flashes at Oregon he had some buzz. That fizzled as he continues to get injured in college. He’s now the expected starter at Louisville with a faster and improved wide receiver group than last year’s surprising team. If he stays healthy, and that’s a big if, I think he could put up monster numbers and push Louisville to a playoff opportunity.

FOOTBALL Ron English addressed the media... and it was awesome

Usually these practice interviews are bland-ish, this one with Ron English was very enlightening.

A few notable comments that English made:

-- Said coaching was part of the disappointing end to last season. Alluded to the staff needing to continue to evolve as the season goes on when teams have more talent. English said he visited coaches across the country in the off-season to add things in.

-- Said this is as much depth as he's ever had as a DC. Talked about how when Brownlee was out last year, they couldn't really matchup with certain teams. Feels like he has four guys at corner and four guys at safety that can all rotate in with no drop off. He has so many guys in the secondary that it's almost been hard in practice to get every guy enough reps.

-- Talked very highly of Tamarion McDonald, Tennessee transfer. Is developing into a leader, such a good person, cares about helping players. Said he told him his play on the field is going to make guys follow his lead.

-- Said at linebacker that Stanquan has continued to grow. Said Capers has been doing great, and said he could have folded up, but he didn't and continued to work. Has gotten closer to the weight that they want to him play.

He LOVES this defense.

Football Schedule Tidbit

Well either I've been under a rock or just didnt notice, but saw where we had a bye on week 3 (and another 11/9). I did know this, but also for the first time in a while we are starting off with 2 games where we will be heavy favorites. I really like getting 2 live dress rehearsals, bye week and then roll with GT, then ND. We "should" be 3-0 heading into ND so that will make that game huge as both will be ranked and assuming ND doesnt stub their toe with TX A&M, they will be top 5!

That ND, SMU, UVA, Miami stretch will very obviously determine how good we are. Win all 4 and everything changes, but even go 3-1 and we are sitting in a really good spot.

This schedule is NOT easy. I think we have 5 definite wins (AP, Jax St, UVA, BC, Stanford), 4 that I feel pretty solid about, but we need to play well with limited mistakes (GT, SMU, Pitt, UK) and 3 that will be very difficult wins (ND, Miami, Clemson).

It's No Mystery...

Over the summer, I was asked to research the University finances--as opposed to athletics--by a person who runs a small, local nonprofit. My initial reply was that I don't track U of L finances overall nearly as closely as I do athletics, and I couldn't comment on what I would find.

As opposed to the athletic department only, it is much easier to locate public accounting reports on US universities. You don't have to rely on the NCAA or use non-GAAP accounting. They all get publicly audited and publish numbers that have a high degree of credibility.

What I discovered shouldn't have surprised me knowing what I know about U of L athletics. For this discussion, I prepared a couple of revenue charts showing public universities in the ACC and how their revenues have changed between 2017 and 2023, the most recent published numbers. The current U of L administration took the reins in 2016, after James Ramsey resigned in July of that year. So FY2017 was the first year since his ouster.

Revenue-Graphs.jpg

Total revenue (the left chart) contains all sources of revenue for the university. Operating revenue is essentially tuition, room, and board along with whatever each university considers to be revenue generated just by being open for business. And of course, the actual numbers vary considerably among the schools shown. As one example, Virginia has five times the operating revenue of U of L--which also makes growing it by 30% over the indicated time frame pretty impressive.

I'm not looking at every year in between for every school, but it's possible that a nonrecurring event--like a big donation--could have an outsized effect on one year. The 2017 and 2023 endpoints are each a single data point. I did look at U of L's numbers for the entire span of time and dating back prior to 2017. Here's the U of L total revenue data since 2011.

U-of-L-Total-Revenue.jpg
2018 was a big drop from 2017, and revenue made a slight recovery in the next year or two. But it has since rolled over after adjusting for inflation and is now the lowest it has been since 2017.

I've long maintained that athletics has a major problem managing its finances, and that really isn't a mystery considering that the University overall appears to have a similar problem. You can't argue it's Covid or related to some other macro factor when all of the ACC schools manage in the same environment.

And I've heard recent talk from our administration that our problem is expenses and not revenues. That's a convenient argument when you consider who is supposed to drive what. Lack of revenue is an administration problem primarily. Of course, when you don't have revenue, you have to trim expenses. So why don't we have the revenue we used to and while other schools still do?...
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