Mack faced the possibility of being fired with a zero buyout and cut his losses.
There's a chance your scenario with Payne happens, but consider THAT outcome...
We're paying Mack close to $2 million not to coach, so double that with Payne's hypothetical buyout. Then hire another coach for whatever, $4 million. So your head coaching cost--one to coach and two not to--is in the vicinity of $8 million.
There's another $2 million currently in the budget for the 3 assistants, 12 scholarships, etc. So now you're at $10 million in total costs.
The expense budget for this year and last year in men's basketball was $7 million. And last year, the annual report says we made $1.2 million in operating profit in that sport. So your $3 million in added costs will completely wash out operating profits.
Also consider that we only budgeted $0.6 million more in arena related revenues hiring Payne to replace Mack & Pegues. We forget, but some/many people came into this year with optimism.
Anything's possible, but I choose to analyze what's likely. Our dismal state of finances tells me Payne is returning...