Your win expectations for 2019 as of today - UPDATED w/ BOWL WIN!!!!
- Thread starter glassmanJ
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Sticking with 5-7; just slightly more confident in that prediction now.
I've been at 6 wins since the Spring Game. We have thinned the herd, but still have talent at key positions. Strong at RB, WR, LB and Safety. Decent CB, DLine and Oline. Opportunity at QB. We have the talent, just not enough talent to sustain multiple injuries. I'm still at 6.
I feel the same way... at this point, I can’t tell whether we are the 7th best team in the Atlantic division of the ACC ... or the 2nd.
Well, it appears that we’ve determined we aren’t the 2nd best team in the Atlantic ... but we’ve still got a shot at being the 3rd best. Behind Clemson it’s definitely a competitive and tightly bunched group of teams.
I still think 7 or 8 games is attainable. Coach said physically we can compete with anybody but we won't be good until we lose the mental mistakes. They get two more weeks to work on that starting now.
Well for S&G’s I think BC, SU and NCState are definite possibilities. I’d throw UM in there as a possibility because they are playing like crap. Barely beat a directional Michigan team 17-12 while that same directional Michigan team lost to Wisconsin 61-0. And I think at this point, we are better than uahkay.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
You look @ scores from a year ago, and it's crazy how many games this team was not even close to competing.
I think what we saw Saturday was a green team in that regard - how do you close out close games? They have literally no experience in that regard.
I don't see them winning more than losing this year, the QB carousel is going to hold them back a little and being in foreign territory (a chance to win in 2nd half!) is still a piece they got to go through a little more.
I think what we saw Saturday was a green team in that regard - how do you close out close games? They have literally no experience in that regard.
I don't see them winning more than losing this year, the QB carousel is going to hold them back a little and being in foreign territory (a chance to win in 2nd half!) is still a piece they got to go through a little more.
I said 3 at the beginning of the year, but I’m thinking 4 will be the number.
I’m expecting Virginia, Wake Forest and Clemson to be too good for us to beat at this point, though the first two do not have elite talent. They are just very good football teams. BC, NC State and Syracuse are definitely winnable games in which we might even be favored.
This week has some very interesting games for us in terms of our past and remaining schedule. Virginia is at Notre Dame. UK is at South Carolina. Wake Forest is at Boston College. And we’ll get a good sense of how NC State and FSU compare when they play each other this week in Tallahassee.
This week has some very interesting games for us in terms of our past and remaining schedule. Virginia is at Notre Dame. UK is at South Carolina. Wake Forest is at Boston College. And we’ll get a good sense of how NC State and FSU compare when they play each other this week in Tallahassee.
I'm not sure how well people understand win probabilities. If the rest of your games--eight--are toss ups on average (which I think is generous at this point), that likely gets you FOUR more wins. That would be a total of six wins on the season.
A more reasonable calculation that way is to remove the Clemson game as a certain loss. That's 3.5 more wins if the rest are toss ups, for a final record of 5.5 wins and 6.5 losses. Conservatively, I'll take the under on that at 5-7 which would be a good year. 4-8 is IMO meeting expectations.
Those outcomes weren't significantly affected on Saturday, just made a little less likely...
A more reasonable calculation that way is to remove the Clemson game as a certain loss. That's 3.5 more wins if the rest are toss ups, for a final record of 5.5 wins and 6.5 losses. Conservatively, I'll take the under on that at 5-7 which would be a good year. 4-8 is IMO meeting expectations.
Those outcomes weren't significantly affected on Saturday, just made a little less likely...
Louisville's best chance for wins are BC and Syracuse, both home games. The next game against Boston College is a must win situation for the Cardinals. Chances are the Cards will not have another "winnable" game until the last two games of the season(vsSyracuse, @Kentucky). Clemson is a no-chance. Games @WF, @NC State, @Miami, @Kentucky and home against Virginia would all be considered significant upsets(if Louisville were to win).
If Louisville loses to BC, the Cards could be in for a long losing streak and team morale could take a hard hit.
If Louisville loses to BC, the Cards could be in for a long losing streak and team morale could take a hard hit.
I understand that some like to use terms like “must wins” but this particular team has no must wins because of what they went through last year. IF there is a must win I’d consider the uahkay game simply because of the rival situation. From this point on out we truly need to play one game at a time. We have no choice because of our lack of depth. A little bit of luck will go a long way toward our success, but a little bit of bad luck just might be a back breaker. We’ll just have to play a game at a time and that’s where our focus belongs.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
Based on ESPN FPI at this point: BC, Syracuse are likely wins. (Approx 60-70% win probability each).
@NC State is a toss-up.
Virginia (35%), @UK (30%), @Miami (25%), @wake Forest (40%) are likely losses. UK may weaken significantly if they have to go to a 3rd string QB.
Clemson would be considered a 10% win probability.
@NC State is a toss-up.
Virginia (35%), @UK (30%), @Miami (25%), @wake Forest (40%) are likely losses. UK may weaken significantly if they have to go to a 3rd string QB.
Clemson would be considered a 10% win probability.
I disagree with this statement about must wins. The typical “fan” is not football intelligent and only care about wins and losses. U of L fans don’t tolerate losses well (what fans do). The typical U of L fan wants immediate results that are measurable. Example, if we lose to the kitties again this year, there will be grumblings. To me, that’s already a must win game.
This is shaping up to be one of the longest, worst losing periods in Louisville Football, since about 1985 or so. It took 4 seasons before Schnellenberger was able to turn the page.
I think the Cards will start winning at some point and the lights will go ON again, and the winning tradition will be restarted. No telling when that happens. If its next season then so be it. If its the one after that then so be it. Cards were left with little in the gas tank.
This will all pass.
We will be a better team and program and hopefully an improved fan base when it does.
I think we beat Boston College and turn the page. Just like John L did Sept 26 1998.
I think the Cards will start winning at some point and the lights will go ON again, and the winning tradition will be restarted. No telling when that happens. If its next season then so be it. If its the one after that then so be it. Cards were left with little in the gas tank.
This will all pass.
We will be a better team and program and hopefully an improved fan base when it does.
I think we beat Boston College and turn the page. Just like John L did Sept 26 1998.
Great post. I remember that BC game and they were heavily favored. I believe they were ranked about #20 at the time and we kicked their ass.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
Your statement makes no sense. What this team did last year is exactly why BC is a must win. If the Cards can't win next Sat, there's a good chance Louisville will go 2-10 again. The next best chance for a win is Syracuse, the 11th game of the season. There's no telling what the roster will look like by then; injuries are inevitable. Back to back 2-10 seasons is terrible; BC is a must win. Yeah, yeah...I'm so negative. That's what we adults call reality, junior.
At this point, everything except a college football playoff bid is still a possibility, so yes, a win against Boston College is a must from the standpoint of winning the ACC championship.
The good news for UofL is that, while we certainly have shown ourselves to be beatable, everyone else on our schedule looks vulnerable as well. Shockingly, even Clemson can go on that list after today.
So having said that ... I reject the notion that if we don’t beat BC we won’t win another game. This year’s team has a chance to win every time out.
The good news for UofL is that, while we certainly have shown ourselves to be beatable, everyone else on our schedule looks vulnerable as well. Shockingly, even Clemson can go on that list after today.
So having said that ... I reject the notion that if we don’t beat BC we won’t win another game. This year’s team has a chance to win every time out.
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I'm not a proponent of the must-win mindset because it implies everything is downhill from that point forward if you don't get the win. There's no question that not winning against BC is gonna make my prediction of four wins on the season a longer shot. IMO that's the benchmark for a satisfactory season...
BC took a tough loss today - UofL will be rested coming off the bye for next week's game. The game is at home and the fans will be there to support - this is a game the Cards need to find a way to get.
I understand what you’re saying but because of the CFP system, college football is predicated on the “must” win. Ask ND? Do you think they can afford another loss if they want to get to the playoffs? Can you afford more than 1 conference loss if you have conference championship aspirations? We may not have those in our sights this year but they are desired milestones in a typical season.
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I had best case scenario 4-8. Guess I’m not going to win this year’s Nostradamus award.
Extremely surprised and elated! Worse case we will be 7-5 and honestly, at this point, I'm not ruling out 9-3. Knowing Miami is all over the place, if we can win that game our chances of winning out are VERY high (barring any key injuries, of course). Crazy to state that from where we were 11 months ago.
No doubt I sold these guys short. I thought 4-5 wins. There is some good coaching going on right now and a bowl is within grasp.
