Why Fire Payne before end of the season?

[Knucklehank1]

Obviously he needs to go. But I’m struggling to see the incentives to firing him before the end of the season. I don’t see any assistants doing effective coaching now so I find it hard to believe that one of them would suddenly provide some coaching genius in an interim role. The attendance is abysmal but I cannot see where the attendance recovers regardless of who is coaching. I know personally having an assistant as interim coach won’t get me to go to a game. If you officially wait until after March you can save $2M. I’ve also heard some suggest that firing him now allows you to get a jump on the coaching search. This doesn’t hold much weight because you can always back-channel to whatever candidate you have in mind. Other thing to consider is that if you drag this out the next couple months there’s a chance at some point Payne would be increasingly more receptive to a negotiated buyout.

So I’m generally curious. Respectfully, make the case why we fire him before the season is over and what are the benefits of making that move? ***Again, we all agree he needs to be fired***

 

[TheRealVille]

Why does any coach in any sport get fired during the season? It's a response to the fanbase that a change is needed and that there will be no equivocation on it being necessary by those in charge.

In pro sports it can sometimes generate positive action from the players who feel bad about causing their coach to lose his job. Depending on the new coach, it can also motivate a team that not all is lost.

With collegiate sports It's more about money and that's certainly what UofL is concerned about. I agree that firing KP now wouldn't turn the team into a post season contender without a top level coach that is, but it could get more fans in the seats if the team showed improvement under a new coach.

Giving the position to Danny Manning or Nolan Smith wouldn't do that, so I agree UofL should keep KP until after the season. I believe that was the plan after season two if the team continued to lose. However, the absolute revolt by fans and looking at another single digit win season, replacing KP is really the only positive thing in a season of negativity.

The easy answer is there's someone who could turn things around instantly and give some hope and positive expectation for next season. Finding that coach in December is not likely and unprecedented in my memory. It's usually an assistant who finishes out a season as a interem coach, but I don't think that would work for UofL. This staff is just too much like KP.

The best case would be a coach who's currently not coaching who would be willing to take on the job as a interem coach and be evaluated after the season. A audition if you will.

However it shakes out Heird has to do something as the program has turned into a laughing stock, and no amount of money saved is going to change that as long as KP remains the coach.

If Louisville basketball wasn't an elite program it would be an easier decision. South Carolina or Wake Forest wouldn't feel the pressure a Duke, UK, or Michigan State would have.

A rock and a hard place is where UofL is at, and the sooner something is done to change that, the better it will be, for the moment, for Louisville men's basketball.

 

[Cardiac Red]

He needs to be fired now because he's embarrassing the University. Get somebody in there like Leiberman to finish out the season and get us out of the national media spotlight.

 

[UofLouisville]

Monetarily it makes sense to wait until the end of the season. But I feel each game with the same underachieving performance, the same total lack of self-awareness, is losing more and more of the fan base. Some possibly permanently. It's also possible that under an interim coach the team may perform better and generally bring a shred of positivity back to a program that has none. If the well is fouled, don't wait until your thirsty to clean it. Fire Payne now. It can't get worse.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

It’s a pretty simple explanation. The Payne haters want him fired now grounded in the possibility that it won’t get done if we wait.

Could be several reasons for that fear. He miraculously turns things around. He lands some blue chip recruits. The politics come front and center.

Better to do it in their minds while he’s losing games. When it’s more crystal clear…

 

[UofLouisville]

Yep, it's all about hating and politics. Absolutely nothing to do with losing. Alot.

 

[PushupMan]

The notion that we save $2 million if we wait until April 1 to fire him is misguided. We MUST fire him before April 1, 2024 in order not to have to pay him $3.35 million for the next year of his contract (April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025). If we fire him without cause at any time between now and March 31, 2024, then on April 1, 2024, his paycheck changes from $279K per month to $160K per month, a value it will remain at until March 31, 2028.

What we would save by waiting until the end of the season to fire him is the roughly $850K in performance bonuses that he’s eligible for this year. Fire him now and his lawyer will be able to successfully argue that you didn’t give him a chance to earn those bonuses. Wait until he finishes the season (with something like 8 or 9 wins), and we don’t have to pay him any of those bonuses, because he won’t have earned any of them.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

If you're going to hire someone who isn't coaching right now, then you can fire Payne now and get that person in the position right away.

The 2024 recruiting class is almost gone but not quite. Removing Payne now and bringing in the next coach removes uncertainty with potential recruits.

Bringing in next year's coach now gives the coach more time to evaluate and work with the current players. It also gives current players some incentive to continue playing hard if they want to have the option of sticking around for next season.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Is Rick coming back?

 

[beantowncard]

It’s a pretty simple explanation. The Payne haters want him fired now grounded in the possibility that it won’t get done if we wait.

Could be several reasons for that fear. He miraculously turns things around. He lands some blue chip recruits. The politics come front and center.

Better to do it in their minds while he’s losing games. When it’s more crystal clear…

What’s the math here? How much are we losing in attendance vs how much we would lose by firing KP immediately? That’s a calculation Hierd has to make. Of course it is impossible to know how attendance (and revenue) might be helped by the firing, if any at all; and nothing changes with the roster. We can’t go back to training camp in mid-season, so any interim coach will struggle without his players and his development. For those who say we are too broke to make a move, they may be right but we face a dilemma- we risk continued devastation and passing a point of no return with mbb. Is there a financial argument for firing KP now, as opposed to end of the season.

 

[Knucklehank1]

If you're going to hire someone who isn't coaching right now, then you can fire Payne now and get that person in the position right away.

The 2024 recruiting class is almost gone but not quite. Removing Payne now and bringing in the next coach removes uncertainty with potential recruits.

Bringing in next year's coach now gives the coach more time to evaluate and work with the current players. It also gives current players some incentive to continue playing hard if they want to have the option of sticking around for next season.

The only slightly plausible candidate not currently coaching is Jay Wright. He seems like a very, very remote possibility though.

 

[RealStateBird]

Obviously he needs to go. But I’m struggling to see the incentives to firing him before the end of the season. I don’t see any assistants doing effective coaching now so I find it hard to believe that one of them would suddenly provide some coaching genius in an interim role. The attendance is abysmal but I cannot see where the attendance recovers regardless of who is coaching. I know personally having an assistant as interim coach won’t get me to go to a game. If you officially wait until after March you can save $2M. I’ve also heard some suggest that firing him now allows you to get a jump on the coaching search. This doesn’t hold much weight because you can always back-channel to whatever candidate you have in mind. Other thing to consider is that if you drag this out the next couple months there’s a chance at some point Payne would be increasingly more receptive to a negotiated buyout.

So I’m generally curious. Respectfully, make the case why we fire him before the season is over and what are the benefits of making that move? ***Again, we all agree he needs to be fired***

Recruiting

 

[Knucklehank1]

Recruiting

Help me understand - do you think we will hire a coach that is currently unemployed? If our next coach is in NCAA tourney then they wouldn’t be hired and start recruiting until at least March.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

What’s the math here? How much are we losing in attendance vs how much we would lose by firing KP immediately? That’s a calculation Hierd has to make. Of course it is impossible to know how attendance (and revenue) might be helped by the firing, if any at all; and nothing changes with the roster...

You don't have to guess at that answer. How much did attendance change the games immediately after Mack was let go? My recollection it was very little considering his $4-5 million buyout...

 

[CardX]

He hasn’t done anything to show that he deserves to keep his job. If you have a tumor, you don’t let it grow.

A new year is among us. Fresh start. Plus, maybe fans will start going to games again once the disease is cured. It would be a boost to the city and university.

 

[Knucklehank1]

He hasn’t done anything to show that he deserves to keep his job. If you have a tumor, you don’t let it grow.

A new year is among us. Fresh start. Plus, maybe fans will start going to games again once the disease is cured. It would be a boost to the city and university.

Do you think fans return if Manning or Nolan is named interim? I personally don’t think they will this year.

 

[UofLouisville]

ESPN has us favored in 1 more game this year, way down the road on Feb 21 against ND. I see crowds getting even smaller during that 15 game stretch if we go 0-15. It will come down to whether that interim coach could put a better coached product on the floor. That won't be Manning. Nolan could with his name, his dad being a legend, but who knows. If reports are correct that his ousting is sooner rather than later, it will come after the UK game in front of a sea of blue at the Yum. Almost a 2 week break after that for a new coach to step in. If not then, I don't see it happening till season is over.

 

[Thecycle27]

Smith has to be careful he doesn’t get dragged down either. At this point it is guilty by association however if he agrees to take over he will be directly judged for how the team performs. That is a risky deal for a young coach.

 

[UofLouisville]

If it turns out to be an audition as well it could be the chance of a lifetime for a young coach. But your right if he's told its just interim and no shot at the end of the year, that's an anchor he wouldn't want around his neck.

 

[nccardfan]

If it turns out to be an audition as well it could be the chance of a lifetime for a young coach. But your right if he's told its just interim and no shot at the end of the year, that's an anchor he wouldn't want around his neck.

Hmmm.... you mean like what happen to Padgett?

Well, I don't really know if its the same but I would like to think Padgett was auditioning to get an extension but wonder if he really had any chance or that he would be even considered. Me thinks not.

 

[Cardiac Red]

If you're going to hire someone who isn't coaching right now, then you can fire Payne now and get that person in the position right away.

The 2024 recruiting class is almost gone but not quite. Removing Payne now and bringing in the next coach removes uncertainty with potential recruits.

Bringing in next year's coach now gives the coach more time to evaluate and work with the current players. It also gives current players some incentive to continue playing hard if they want to have the option of sticking around for next season.

You're not going to bringing in next year's coach during this season. There will be an interim coach hired to finish out the year. The next coaches biggest recruiting is going to be to keep the best players off this team and then pull some kids out of the portal and maybe bring some kids he has recruited at his former job.

 

[CardX]

Do you think fans return if Manning or Nolan is named interim? I personally don’t think they will this year.

You never know until shit for brains is fired. I’m on record with our do nothing AD that I won’t set foot in the Yum until KP is gone. I, 100%, will go to the very next home game after/when Danny or Nolan are named interim. That’s not BS.

 

[Cardiac Red]

I, 100%, will go to the very next home game after/when Danny or Nolan are named interim. That’s not BS.

It's not going to be one of those guys.

 

[CardX]

It's not going to be one of those guys.

For interim? Not that interim matters, but it has to be one of those guys. They are assistants 1 and 2, no? Danny has HC experience. Unless those two get canned, too.

 

[shadow force]

For interim? Not that interim matters, but it has to be one of those guys. They are assistants 1 and 2, no? Danny has HC experience. Unless those two get canned, too.

If reports are to be believed, Manning has said he would step down if Payne is fired. So that leaves Nolan or someone from outside the program.

 

[Cardiac Red]

If reports are to be believed, Manning has said he would step down if Payne is fired. So that leaves Nolan or someone from outside the program.

☝️
Ditto this. As controversial as Nolan has been I can't see him getting it either. Speculation I've heard is possibly Mark Lieberman.

 

[Thecycle27]

This is again unprecedented in that Louisville may have to hire from outside at mid season. I say let it ride to the end of the year. To many unknowns with players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see mid season transfers.

 

[Knucklehank1]

☝️
Ditto this. As controversial as Nolan has been I can't see him getting it either. Speculation I've heard is possibly Mark Lieberman.

Was told this morning to expect the majority of the staff to be terminated on Friday assuming we lose to UK. My guess is Lieberman and some cohorts will take over on interim basis.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Maybe we should get Zipp to coach the team. Think he can relate to today's players?

 

[Morgantown Card]

Obviously he needs to go. But I’m struggling to see the incentives to firing him before the end of the season. I don’t see any assistants doing effective coaching now so I find it hard to believe that one of them would suddenly provide some coaching genius in an interim role. The attendance is abysmal but I cannot see where the attendance recovers regardless of who is coaching. I know personally having an assistant as interim coach won’t get me to go to a game. If you officially wait until after March you can save $2M. I’ve also heard some suggest that firing him now allows you to get a jump on the coaching search. This doesn’t hold much weight because you can always back-channel to whatever candidate you have in mind. Other thing to consider is that if you drag this out the next couple months there’s a chance at some point Payne would be increasingly more receptive to a negotiated buyout.

So I’m generally curious. Respectfully, make the case why we fire him before the season is over and what are the benefits of making that move? ***Again, we all agree he needs to be fired***

If Heird is in talks to get the buyout reduced, I'm fine with delaying the firing until it is reduced. This season is lost anyway. Heird can start talking to other candidates etc meanwhile.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Maybe we should get Zipp to coach the team. Think he can relate to today's players?

I’d be much better coaching the athletics administration. It would be can they relate to me?…

 

[nccardfan]

Was told this morning to expect the majority of the staff to be terminated on Friday assuming we lose to UK. My guess is Lieberman and some cohorts will take over on interim basis.

Again, not sure why the UK game would be the trigger to get rid of Payne. We weren't expected to win were we? Were we expecting a 50 point blowout by UK? I doubt even Calimari would do that to a former coach/buddy. As I mentioned, we haven't entered ACC play except 1 game. There is the 2 million dropoff in payment we would have to pay him in April. There's no capable coach on staff that even wants to coach the team the rest of the year knowing there is nothing they can do to win the job even if they want it. Other than Wright, I don't think there's one coach (maybe Lieberman) who has no current commitment that prevents them from stepping right in and take over. We thought basketball had reached rock bottom but we are still on a decline as witnessed by the number of people in blue at the Yum. That aspect is not entirely new as I remember a lot of blue at Freedom Hall in our rivalry games.

 

[Knucklehank1]

Again, not sure why the UK game would be the trigger to get rid of Payne. We weren't expected to win were we? Were we expecting a 50 point blowout by UK? I doubt even Calimari would do that to a former coach/buddy. As I mentioned, we haven't entered ACC play except 1 game. There is the 2 million dropoff in payment we would have to pay him in April. There's no capable coach on staff that even wants to coach the team the rest of the year knowing there is nothing they can do to win the job even if they want it. Other than Wright, I don't think there's one coach (maybe Lieberman) who has no current commitment that prevents them from stepping right in and take over. We thought basketball had reached rock bottom but we are still on a decline as witnessed by the number of people in blue at the Yum. That aspect is not entirely new as I remember a lot of blue at Freedom Hall in our rivalry games.

The UK game was important because 1) we have a 13 day layoff and 2) the optics of having a partisan UK crowd.

Nonetheless, it seems that Heird sided with the things that were suggested in the original post.

 

[UofLouisville]

It seems the money and players wishes came out ahead. We'll see at the end of the season if it is worth it.