Enough basketball talk, it's football season. And a berth in the ACC Championship game is right there for the taking. But first, we must take care of business against Va Tech. I believe we will because I think surging Va Tech, 3-1 in conference, is actually a Fraud as an ACC Championship contender and here is why:
I think most know by now how well Louisville has played at home this season. If you don't, the Cards have performed at a much higher level at home than away from home this year and the numbers clearly support this as illustrated below:
I think most know by now how well Louisville has played at home this season. If you don't, the Cards have performed at a much higher level at home than away from home this year and the numbers clearly support this as illustrated below:
- In 4 home games, Louisville is 4-0, including two wins against teams that came in ranked in the top 20, outscoring their opponents 168-48 (avg score per game of 42-12), and producing 2 shutouts.
- Even if you ignore the game against FCS Murray St, and just consider the other three games against FBS teams who have compiled a record of 18-5 against every other opponent on their schedule, then the Cards have scored 37 ppg on average against those teams who, on average, have only allowed 19 ppg. Defensively, UofL only allowed 16 ppg on average in those three games to teams that have scored 31 ppg. That's a total team number of an astounding +33 (by comparison, their team number in 2 true away games is a paltry-9.5, and a mediocre +0.5 in 2 neutral site games, producing a below-average -4.0 number away from L&N Stadium).
- In those three FBS games, the Cards rushed for 613 yards (204 ypg) against rush defenses that only allow 137 ypg - that's 67 "more" rushing yards per game that those teams are allowing on the season; their rush defense has been even more dominant and only allowed 227 yards (75.7 ypg) against 3 rushing offenses that are averaging 186 ypg - that's a remarkable 110+ yards a game "below" what those teams normally run for.
- Louisville also registered 14 sacks in those games - that's a ridiculous 4.7 sacks per game (BTW Texas A&M leads the nation at 4.1 per game); Louisville also has created 6 turnovers in those games while only giving up 1.
- Yes, Va Tech is 3-1 in conference, with its only loss at top-ranked FSU. But their 3 conf wins have come at home against the bottom 3 of the ACC, who have a collective 2-12 conference record and all of which are in free-fall mode. Their only other win on the season was in their home opener against a 4-4 Sun Belt team (Old Dominion).
- In Va Tech's three road games, they are 0-3, losing by an average score of 33-17, to Rutgers and Marshall (in addition to FSU); in those three road games, the Hokies scored 4 points less on average than those teams normally allow, and allowed on average 1 point more than those offenses normally score for a total team number of a below average -5.0.
- 24 of the team's incredible 30 sacks were registered at home against Old Dominion (who is #130 and last in the nation in sacks allowed), Wake (#128 in nation), Syracuse (#114 in nation), and Pitt. On the road, their vaulted sack defense has only registered 1.3 sacks per game.
- Also on the road, Va Tech has only acquired only 2 total turnovers, while giving it away 4 times themselves.
