ULAA is budgeting a huge increase in football revenues...

[the artist FKA zipp]

...for the 2023 season and related to fan attendance at home games.

I just received the budget details from U of L, and I'll provide a full summary in this thread later. The year over year increase is 43%: $20.6 million budgeted vs $14.4 million actual through 5/31/23. All revenues of this type for the 2022 season are reflected in the 5/31 number.

These dollar amounts are the sum of the categories of ticket sales, suite rental, concessions, and parking. My shorthand reference for these are "game day revenues." The highest GDR has been $18.8 million for the 2019 season, not adjusted for inflation.

Either U of L is banking big on what Brohm will deliver, or they've already had a huge increase in ticket sales backing up that optimism. I haven't read the full 24 pages of the file yet, and I don't know, for example, where they show (if it's mentioned) the money paid to U of L by Cincy for Satterfield's buyout.

But absent a big one-off item, an increase of this magnitude in revenue and attendance would be pretty big news if it materializes...

 

[beantowncard]

...for the 2023 season and related to fan attendance at home games.

I just received the budget details from U of L, and I'll provide a full summary in this thread later. The year over year increase is 43%: $20.6 million budgeted vs $14.4 million actual through 5/31/23. All revenues of this type for the 2022 season are reflected in the 5/31 number.

These dollar amounts are the sum of the categories of ticket sales, suite rental, concessions, and parking. My shorthand reference for these are "game day revenues." The highest GDR has been $18.8 million for the 2019 season, not adjusted for inflation.

Either U of L is banking big on what Brohm will deliver, or they've already had a huge increase in ticket sales backing up that optimism. I haven't read the full 24 pages of the file yet, and I don't know, for example, where they show (if it's mentioned) the money paid to U of L by Cincy for Satterfield's buyout.

But absent a big one-off item, an increase of this magnitude in revenue and attendance would be pretty big news if it materializes...

What is their record of accuracy in forecasting football revenues?

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

What is their record of accuracy in forecasting football revenues?

Or any revenues, not great…

 

[Mayoman]

Or any revenues, not great…

But it can happen right? Self fulfilling prophecy is a thing is it not?

What is your take on this expectation as to will it happen or not? For or not for?

Personally I like this fresh air of optimism over the doom and gloom of the last 5 years.

Also, I like Brohm's chances of delivering on this new found optimism and will be pulling for the Cards to just do it. Times are a changing and its time to get on the bus before getting left at the depot.

Go Cards!!!

 

[HiStepper]

But it can happen right? Self fulfilling prophecy is a thing is it not?

What is your take on this expectation as to will it happen or not? For or not for?

Personally I like this fresh air of optimism over the doom and gloom of the last 5 years.

Also, I like Brohm's chances of delivering on this new found optimism and will be pulling for the Cards to just do it. Times are a changing and its time to get on the bus before getting left at the depot.

Go Cards!!!

Bottom line, there will be Louisville sports this year, next year and into the future. As Johnelle preached either you are in the boat or you are not.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Bottom line, there will be Louisville sports this year, next year and into the future. As Johnelle preached either you are in the boat or you are not.

That's a trivial take. The sun will rise, and the world will turn as well. None of that tells you anything about the direction you're headed.

But it can happen right? Self fulfilling prophecy is a thing is it not?

What is your take on this expectation as to will it happen or not? For or not for?

Personally I like this fresh air of optimism over the doom and gloom of the last 5 years...

Just about anything CAN happen. I try to deal more in analysis of recent experience and what is most likely to happen.

I also try to take a step back from emotion and sentiments like optimism. Personally, I've made more than 90% of our home games for four decades. Twelve of those years I lived three states away. Few fans have more personal time invested in supporting the football team.

Nothing I'd like better than to see a big upturn in our finances that is directly attributed to Jeff Brohm and the return of his family. The Brohm family deserve all of that.

Back to the numbers...

 

[Mayoman]

Just about anything CAN happen. I try to deal more in analysis of recent experience and what is most likely to happen. Yea, Self fulfilling prophecy is over rated as is intuition.

I also try to take a step back from emotion and sentiments like optimism. Personally, I've made more than 90% of our home games for four decades. Twelve of those years I lived three states away. Few fans have more personal time invested in supporting the football team. So you are an optimist at heart then.

'Nothing I'd like better than to see a big upturn in our finances that is directly attributed to Jeff Brohm and the return of his family. The Brohm family deserve all of that.' Amen to that!

Back to the numbers... Naah, numbers have their place but are way too boring and open for agendas and misinterpretation for spiritual folks like me who believe in optimism over pessimism, love over hate, and goodness over evil....living for the world with worldly values are fruit from the forbidden tree for me. Others can follow that way at their own peril.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

So here are the year over year increases in the FY2024 football revenue budgets by component. All of these changes are WRT actuals last year (2022 season):

Ticket Sales: $16.0 million, +$4.9 million (+48.9%)​

Previous high $14.1 million for the 2016 season​

​

Suite Rentals: $2.6 million, +$0.45 million (+21.2%)​

Previous high $2.5 million for the 2014 season​

​

Concessions: $1.1 million, +$0.32 million (+42.1%)​

​

Parking: $0.98 million, +$0.20 million (+25.7%)​

​

Concessions + Parking: $2.1 million​

Previous high $1.9 million for the 2021 season​

​

TOTAL $20.6 million, +$6.2 million (+43.2%)​

Previous high $19.2 million for the 2016 season​

​

None of these comparisons are adjusted for inflation. Not a big error for year-over-year comparisons, more of an issue looking at "previous high" numbers.

These are big increases across all categories relating to GDR, implying that U of L is expecting big attendance increases. For comparison, here are home attendance averages in the years mentioned above...

2014: 52,972 (previous suite rentals record)
2016: 54,065 (previous GDR, ticket sales records)
2021: 43,966 (previous concessions + parking record)

Since ticket sales and suite rentals account for 90% of GDRs, the attendance numbers in 2014 and 2016 are probably more relevant. 54,065 is 30% higher attendance than we had last year (41,692).

I don't know what those folks over on Floyd St. are smokin' or whether they're sitting on some interesting mid-June ticket sales numbers. But if anyone gets any behind-the-scenes info, it would shed some light...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Just about anything CAN happen. I try to deal more in analysis of recent experience and what is most likely to happen. Yea, Self fulfilling prophecy is over rated as is intuition...

Are you saying I'm NOT engaging in proper analysis?...

 

[HiStepper]

Go to your favorite UofL sport game(s) and see if there are more fans there than the number of fans in this thread playing the finance-AD reindeer games.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Go to your favorite UofL sport game(s) and see if there are more fans there than the number of fans in this thread playing the finance-AD reindeer games.

Doesn’t that issue sort of fly in the face of your own participation at the moment?

Or is “look at how few people are here” your new schtick when staying on point becomes a problem?…

 

[Mayoman]

Are you saying I'm NOT engaging in proper analysis?...

I don't know for sure...if your numbers are real and not fabricated by UofL or you; and are true than you likely are accurate. I include the human biases element in analysis as well as just the numbers.

My stats professor was fond of saying often to the class: "Figures can lie and liars can figure with the best of them"....so really I don't know.

A good numbers person can make a lot points for or against an issue just as easily as a good lawyer or a good doctor can in their field of expertise.

I just know that a variable or two can be presented in more than one way. Is that glass 50% full or 50% empty? Both can be true.

Perception, figuring, and interpretation of that figuring all come into play. I acknowledge that humans are imperfect and flawed, ergo much analysis is flawed too.

I appreciate all your efforts to inform the board. Takes a lot of work and dedication to do it. So TY for all that.

 

[HiStepper]

Doesn’t that issue sort of fly in the face of your own participation at the moment?

Or is “look at how few people are here” your new schtick when staying on point becomes a problem?

I don't need a point. My point or your point has very little effect on the thousand of Louisville fans that don't use these boards or even know who the heck you are. They are not up at 3 or 4 in the morning answering post like you. Everybody here knows your schtick too. Regardless of the subject most of your replies are a broken record confined to one major subject. My being a Louisville fan is not influenced by your loathing of the Athletic depart and all they do. I look forward to the continuation of the Louisville sports I attend and enjoy.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I don't know for sure...if your numbers are real and not fabricated by UofL or you; and are true than you likely are accurate. I include the human biases element in analysis as well as just the numbers.

My stats professor was fond of saying often to the class: "Figures can lie and liars can figure with the best of them"....so really I don't know.

A good numbers person can make a lot points for or against an issue just as easily as a good lawyer or a good doctor can in their field of expertise.

I just know that a variable or two can presented in more than one way. Is that glass 50% full or 50% empty? Both can be true.

Perception, figuring, and interpretation of that figuring all come into play. I acknowledge that humans are imperfect and flawed, ergo much analysis is flawed too.

I appreciate all your efforts to inform the board. Takes a lot of work and dedication to do it. So TY for all that.

No problem, I obviously enjoy it.

A couple of points... This thread is for sure positive news if it's close to materializing. If I was as jaded as some think against U of L, a thread like this makes little sense for me to start or support. My only question is the numbers almost appear too good to be true, nothing like I expected in Brohm Year 1.

Also, I try to always link or reference my "raw data". And I do that so others can provide their own analysis or bring other data that run counter to my conclusions or thoughts. I have no idea if the source numbers are fabricated by the entity or person reporting them, only that that entity isn't me. (If U of L is wandering into that realm, the stakes have just increased...)

And I fully recognize that there are all kinds of garbage and misinformation "on the internet." If that's someone's take, they should offer reasoning why that's their take in a particular instance. I try to do that myself, a recent example being the NCAA financial numbers compiled annually (LINK)...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I don't need a point. My point or your point has very little effect on the thousand of Louisville fans that don't use these boards or even know who the heck you are. They are not up at 3 or 4 in the morning answering post like you. Everybody here knows your schtick too. Regardless of the subject most of your replies are a broken record confined to one major subject. My being a Louisville fan is not influenced by your loathing of the Athletic depart and all they do. I look forward to the continuation of the Louisville sports I attend and enjoy.

So this thread's now about me, right down to my personal habits? You do realize that's a hallmark of losing the argument?

I suggest you leave this thread at a few less posts--your own--which should help that point you're trying to make. You can also consider the "ignore" feature if I'm starting to bother you abnormally. You apparently don't consider what I post worth reading, so you should act accordingly...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

A few more financial nuggets in the football budget...

The overall budget is up $9.1 million (20.2%) to $54.4 million, the first time that number has eclipsed the $50 million mark. And that's the largest increase since joining the ACC and first participating in their conference revenue streams.

Conference revenues for football are budgeted to increase by $2.4 million (8.1%) to $32.6 million. The GDR increase is more than two-thirds of the overall increase, $6.2 of the $9.1 million increase.

Zooming out, basketball conference revenues for the ACC are budgeted to be $6.1 million in 2024. an increase of $0.5 million.

Overall conference revenues are expected to be $39.0 million, over 80% of which comes from football...

 

[beantowncard]

So here are the year over year increases in the FY2024 football revenue budgets by component. All of these changes are WRT actuals last year (2022 season):

Ticket Sales: $16.0 million, +$4.9 million (+48.9%)​

Previous high $14.1 million for the 2016 season​

​

Suite Rentals: $2.6 million, +$0.45 million (+21.2%)​

Previous high $2.5 million for the 2014 season​

​

Concessions: $1.1 million, +$0.32 million (+42.1%)​

​

Parking: $0.98 million, +$0.20 million (+25.7%)​

​

Concessions + Parking: $2.1 million​

Previous high $1.9 million for the 2021 season​

​

TOTAL $20.6 million, +$6.2 million (+43.2%)​

Previous high $18.8 million for the 2019 season​

​

None of these comparisons are adjusted for inflation. Not a big error for year-over-year comparisons, more of an issue looking at "previous high" numbers.

These are big increases across all categories relating to GDR, implying that U of L is expecting big attendance increases. For comparison, here are home attendance averages in the years mentioned above...

2014: 52,972 (previous suite rentals record)
2016: 54,065 (previous ticket sales record)
2019: 49,912 (previous GDR total record)
2021: 43,966 (previous concessions + parking record)

Since ticket sales and suite rentals account for 90% of GDRs, the attendance numbers in 2014 and 2016 are probably more relevant. 54,065 is 30% higher attendance than we had last year (41,692).

I don't know what those folks over on Floyd St. are smokin' or whether they're sitting on some interesting mid-June ticket sales numbers. But if anyone gets any behind-the-scenes info, it would shed some light...

Attendance or ticket sales? Big difference. Ticket sales are easier to predict based on season ticket sales so far and history of walk-up sales. I think we only have one game (ND) where we can expect big visitor numbers. Suite rentals should be pretty solid based on what they have so far. If the numbers don’t reflect actual experience, then it is not an honest budget. If sales have been through the roof, maybe they have justification for the optimism.

 

[2330859]

If it were just about "Brohm's first year here as HC", I would be surprised by such encouraging increase in season ticket sales. However, UL fans witnessing the combination of success in both the transfer portal and this incoming recruiting class is a rather unique experience, and that would explain it all.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I haven’t been listening live, but Ennis apparently had Lottie Stockwell on the radio this afternoon. Reportedly, she said something about six thousand new season ticket holders in football. Not sure if that was NET.

Based on past seasons, we need something approaching 10K more people per game to sync up with what’s in the 2024 budget.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

@the artist FKA zipp im too lazy to read lol

But I have a question about the Chik Fil A kickoff. How does the revenue work from that game? Because it’s neutral site and a special event on ESPN, but an ACC game, do we get a good split or do we only split the gate and the conference controls the revenues? Or is it a Georgia Tech home game?

Last year we only had 6 home games. This year 7. Plus maybe we get a bigger cut of the Kickoff game. We’ll get sUcKs and Notre Dame as home games too, which will massive crowds compared to anything last year. I would imagine the Murray State home opener at night will draw a huge crowd too, which you don’t usually get for FCS opponents. BC, Duke, UVA, and VT aren’t ideal for the other games, but if there is a Brohm bounce, it can’t hurt.

The extra home game, plus 2 big home opponents, and add in the Brohm Bump, I could see a big revenue increase.

 

[beantowncard]

I haven’t been listening live, but Ennis apparently had Lottie Stockwell on the radio this afternoon. Reportedly, she said something about six thousand new season ticket holders in football. Not sure if that was NET.

Based on past seasons, we need something approaching 10K more people per game to sync up with what’s in the 2024 budget.

I would think there is a difference in price for season tix and individual walk-ups in the nosebleed section. If 10,000 are needed. Is that average ticket price? If so, perhaps fewer season tickets would make the dollar equation work.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

@the artist FKA zipp im too lazy to read lol

But I have a question about the Chik Fil A kickoff. How does the revenue work from that game? Because it’s neutral site and a special event on ESPN, but an ACC game, do we get a good split or do we only split the gate and the conference controls the revenues? Or is it a Georgia Tech home game?

Last year we only had 6 home games. This year 7. Plus maybe we get a bigger cut of the Kickoff game. We’ll get sUcKs and Notre Dame as home games too, which will massive crowds compared to anything last year. I would imagine the Murray State home opener at night will draw a huge crowd too, which you don’t usually get for FCS opponents. BC, Duke, UVA, and VT aren’t ideal for the other games, but if there is a Brohm bounce, it can’t hurt.

The extra home game, plus 2 big home opponents, and add in the Brohm Bump, I could see a big revenue increase.

Good question about the “one off” games and items. There’s always the possibility I missed something…

We’re back to six home games this coming year, although you’re right that a couple games could draw big crowds. ND will likely approach 60K regardless what our record is going in. There was 55K for the last home game against UK, good but not a sellout.

It appears that there's no extra revenue for the Tech opener, but ULAA shows $1.2 million for a neutral site game, presumably IU. The IU contract called for a home-and-away format along with the Indy game. So U of L's getting that neutral site game revenue this year. The item budgeted is exactly $1,200,000 which looks to me like a number in a contract, not an estimate of a revenue split.

“Game day revenue” items only cover home games, items including suites, parking, and concessions. It would be affected by a 7th home game, but I would adjust for that—ratio by 6/7. We get maybe $70 in revenue per ticket sold when a lot of spectators show up for ND. Ten thousand more fans would produce as much as $700 thousand in extra revenue.

A $20.6 million GDR total this coming year would be $1.5 million more than the next highest on record in 2016 when we averaged 54 thousand fans during Lamar's Heisman campaign. U of L just reported this week 6,000 "new" ticket sales against an average 41,692 last year. An average of 48 thousand doesn't sound to me like enough to eclipse $20 million in GDRs...

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

Mystery solved somewhat or mostly. I heard this previously but overlooked the 7th game on the home schedule. And U of L did its typical job of answering the estimated football attendance question this week, quoting "new" season tickets sold...

To begin, here's our history of GDR per fan in attendance dating back to the 2011 season. I'm missing the data point for 2018. The 2020 year was Covid and expectedly higher.

Using the total football GDR calculated from the 2024 budget--$20.6 million--you can show the required attendance based on a GDR estimate for the coming year. Here's how that relationship looks…

The value in the 2nd column is $20.6 million divided by 7 games and the corresponding value in the 1st column. The 3rd column is the increase vs last year's average attendance of 41,692.

If you look at the first table above, our GDR recently has been declining. Also keep in mind these numbers aren't inflation adjusted which would make that trend worse. The more revenue we can get from each fan in attendance, the lower attendance we need to hit that overall budget for GDR. And that's the administration's job to do.

In the meantime, U of L this week leaked out that there were six thousand new season tickets sold. That's not an increase by that amount because of attrition. I was told we're seeing 5-10% loss in that category. Believe it or not, bringing in Brohm isn't enough for some folks.

But if U of L can get GDR per fan back to the $60 range, attendance approaching 50,000 per game will get close to the revenue budget…

 

[beantowncard]

Mystery solved somewhat or mostly. I heard this previously but overlooked the 7th game on the home schedule. And U of L did its typical job of answering the estimated football attendance question this week, quoting "new" season tickets sold...

To begin, here's our history of GDR per fan in attendance dating back to the 2011 season. I'm missing the data point for 2018. The 2020 year was Covid and expectedly higher.

Using the total football GDR calculated from the 2024 budget--$20.6 million--you can show the required attendance based on a GDR estimate for the coming year. Here's how that relationship looks,,,

The value in the 2nd column is $20.6 million divided by 7 games and the corresponding value in the 1st column. The 3rd column is the increase vs last year's average attendance of 41,692.

If you look at the first table above, our GDR recently has been declining. Also keep in mind these numbers aren't inflation adjusted which would make that trend worse. The more revenue we can get from each fan in attendance, the lower attendance we need to hit that overall budget for GDR. And that's the administration's job to do.

In the meantime, U of L this week leaked out that there were six thousand new season tickets sold. That's not an increase by that amount because of attrition. I was told we're seeing 5-10% loss in that category. Believe it or not, bringing in Brohm isn't enough for some folks.

But if U of L can get GDR back to the $60 range, attendance approaching 50,000 per game will get close to the revenue budget,,,

I gather from your presentation above that “GDR per fan” is revenue divided by attendance. But since your chief concern is dollars, shouldn’t you adjust GDR for tickets sold? Also, are you sure visitors get no revenue? What % of the visitors ticket sales go to the visiting team? What about sales through third parties (stub hub, etc). Those actually may be significant numbers.

 

[HiStepper]

I gather from your presentation above that “GDR per fan” is revenue divided by attendance. But since your chief concern is dollars, shouldn’t you adjust GDR for tickets sold? Also, are you sure visitors get no revenue? What % of the visitors ticket sales go to the visiting team? What about sales through third parties (stub hub, etc). Those actually may be significant numbers.

The ULAA Financial Reports show that Operating Revenue from FB increased each year over the preceding year going from 15,331K in 2012 to 48,350K in 2022. 2021 was the odd year with revenue of 29,995K.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

I gather from your presentation above that “GDR per fan” is revenue divided by attendance. But since your chief concern is dollars, shouldn’t you adjust GDR for tickets sold? Also, are you sure visitors get no revenue? What % of the visitors ticket sales go to the visiting team? What about sales through third parties (stub hub, etc). Those actually may be significant numbers.

Attendance IS tickets sold for U of L and most schools.

I don't know of any schools that split home game revenues with the visiting team. Your home game is usually your money. Good teams on your schedule get their return game to make bank; the weaker teams with no return game are paid a fixed amount to come and play without that return game.

Visiting team sales count in overall totals. It's true that a team like ND will significantly add to attendance, but those are logged in the "ticket sales" number along with whatever added concessions there are.

Secondary market sales (e.g., Stubhub) don't count in the reported revenues nor should they. You get to log that revenue when tickets are sold in the primary market, direct from U of L or Ticketmaster.

The ULAA Financial Reports show that Operating Revenue from FB increased each year over the preceding year going from 15,331K in 2012 to 48,350K in 2022. 2021 was the odd year with revenue of 29,995K.

The outside auditors count conference/media (ACC) money as operating revenue. NONoperating is almost entirely gifts.

To avoid that ambiguity and perhaps misclassification, I coined the GDR category which does not include the conference money that has driven the reported operating numbers. GDR has been flat to declining on a gross or per-attendee basis. Sounds like ULAA plans to reverse that...

 

[beantowncard]

Attendance IS tickets sold for U of L and most schools.

I don't know of any schools that split home game revenues with the visiting team. Your home game is usually your money. Good teams on your schedule get their return game to make bank; the weaker teams with no return game are paid a fixed amount to come and play without that return game.

Visiting team sales count in overall totals. It's true that a team like ND will significantly add to attendance, but those are logged in the "ticket sales" number along with whatever added concessions there are.

Secondary market sales (e.g., Stubhub) don't count in the reported revenues nor should they. You get to log that revenue when tickets are sold in the primary market, direct from U of L or Ticketmaster.

The outside auditors count conference/media (ACC) money as operating revenue. NONoperating is almost entirely gifts.

To avoid that ambiguity and perhaps misclassification, I coined the GDR category which does not include the conference money that has driven the reported operating numbers. GDR has been flat to declining on a gross or per-attendee basis. Sounds like ULAA plans to reverse that...

My impression has been that at UofL there is a significant number of people who buy tickets and sometimes just don’t show. Season ticket sales alone sometimes exceed attendance. Based on that observation, I doubt that attendance = sales.

 

[the artist FKA zipp]

My impression has been that at UofL there is a significant number of people who buy tickets and sometimes just don’t show. Season ticket sales alone sometimes exceed attendance. Based on that observation, I doubt that attendance = sales.

I think we're confusing terms. The way U of L counts "attendance" is not scanned tickets or some other measure of butts in their seats. It's simply tickets sold.

So in the context of U of L--and most other schools--attendance does equal sales. Granted it's misleading...

 

[2330859]

UL attendance at football games has always been predicated on a wide range of factors, most notably the quality of the opponent, the weather and where the UL team is rated at the time the game approaches.

I expect the real bounce in season ticket will only occur once Brohm meets the lofty expectations that so many anticipate. This community has always responded when the on-field performance meets or exceeds the optimism.

9 wins that include beating UK in 2023, will result in a record increase in season tickets for the 2024 season.

 

[Thecycle27]

It is always a combination of things but we all knew Brohm would initially have an impact on ticket sales. That has occurred with season ticket sales.

The Notre Dame game is a potential sell out. UK game could be as well. The other games based off the season is going could push 50,000.

Very realistic with what they have coming in and returning.