Over the years, many of you have become familiar with my simple "numbers" comparison in order to define a team's power based on its actual performance. As a brief reminder, a team's number is displayed as a positive (+) or negative (-) number, and is equal to the sum of these two components:
1) how many points a team has scored, on average, above (+) or below (-) what their specific opponent has. on average, allowed against its other opponents; this is referred to its offensive component, and defines that team's relative ability to score points; and
2) how many points a team has allowed, on average, above (-) or below (+) what their specific opponent has. on average, scored against its other opponents; this is referred to its defensive component, and defines that team's relative ability to stop a team from scoring points.
Therefore a team with a large (+) number indicates a team that is much better than normal, while those with large (-) numbers are bad squads. Teams that have very low numbers (+ or - 2) are very mediocre. The elite of the elite generally hover in the +30 range, double-figure positive numbers indicate "rankable" teams, and double-digit negative numbers identify the bottom of the barrell teams. Please note that games vs FCS opponents are completely ignored - data derived only from games vs FBS competition.
Although these numbers still lack sufficient sample for strong accuracy this early in the season, they still provide a beginning snapshot of how teams are really performing through the 1st 3rd of its regular season.
Here are UofL's numbers:
Offensive Component = +6.0 Defensive Component = +3.3 Total Team Number = +9.3
This is a really good number for us compared to the last 3 years if it holds up, and would place us somewhere in the low-mid 30's nationwide. We've had some costly injuries, but also have a few youngins showing some promise, so the rest of the season is a bit of a mystery. But if we continue to keep turnovers down, and create some more than we have in recent years, we could have a decent year. According to these numbers right now, we're projecting between 5-7 and 8-4, with 7-5 being most likely followed by 6-6.
Here are the current numbers of our remaining teams (displayed as offensive component + defensive component = team number with current W/L projection):
Virginia +5.5 + (-2.7) = +2.8 W
Boston College +0.0 + (+3.8) = +3.8 W (since away game, near toss-up, but still slightly favors us)
Clemson -1.5 + (+17.3) = +15.8 L
NC State +2.5 + (+7.5) = +10.0 L
Syracuse -4.8 + (+9.3) = +4.5 W
Duke -0.7 + (-5.3) = -6.0 W
UK +2.5 + (+10.5) = +13.0 L (home game makes this fairly close loss)
Like I said, still early, but this data is a good early season indicator of our team.
1) how many points a team has scored, on average, above (+) or below (-) what their specific opponent has. on average, allowed against its other opponents; this is referred to its offensive component, and defines that team's relative ability to score points; and
2) how many points a team has allowed, on average, above (-) or below (+) what their specific opponent has. on average, scored against its other opponents; this is referred to its defensive component, and defines that team's relative ability to stop a team from scoring points.
Therefore a team with a large (+) number indicates a team that is much better than normal, while those with large (-) numbers are bad squads. Teams that have very low numbers (+ or - 2) are very mediocre. The elite of the elite generally hover in the +30 range, double-figure positive numbers indicate "rankable" teams, and double-digit negative numbers identify the bottom of the barrell teams. Please note that games vs FCS opponents are completely ignored - data derived only from games vs FBS competition.
Although these numbers still lack sufficient sample for strong accuracy this early in the season, they still provide a beginning snapshot of how teams are really performing through the 1st 3rd of its regular season.
Here are UofL's numbers:
Offensive Component = +6.0 Defensive Component = +3.3 Total Team Number = +9.3
This is a really good number for us compared to the last 3 years if it holds up, and would place us somewhere in the low-mid 30's nationwide. We've had some costly injuries, but also have a few youngins showing some promise, so the rest of the season is a bit of a mystery. But if we continue to keep turnovers down, and create some more than we have in recent years, we could have a decent year. According to these numbers right now, we're projecting between 5-7 and 8-4, with 7-5 being most likely followed by 6-6.
Here are the current numbers of our remaining teams (displayed as offensive component + defensive component = team number with current W/L projection):
Virginia +5.5 + (-2.7) = +2.8 W
Boston College +0.0 + (+3.8) = +3.8 W (since away game, near toss-up, but still slightly favors us)
Clemson -1.5 + (+17.3) = +15.8 L
NC State +2.5 + (+7.5) = +10.0 L
Syracuse -4.8 + (+9.3) = +4.5 W
Duke -0.7 + (-5.3) = -6.0 W
UK +2.5 + (+10.5) = +13.0 L (home game makes this fairly close loss)
Like I said, still early, but this data is a good early season indicator of our team.
