I'm going to try and cover just about every base as the 2022 regular season has come to an end.
Before we zoom out and look at some big picture items, here are a few thoughts on yesterday's loss to UK:
**I don't think the gap between the two programs is significant, but I do think it's evident that this game means more to Mark Stoops and Kentucky than it does Scott Satterfield and Louisville at this point in time. With that said, I do think Kentucky's recruiting success over the last couple of years yielded some talent that Louisville can't match right now. Barrion Brown and Deone Walker are two dudes that can make individual plays that can win a game. Louisville just hasn't recruited at that level, but that certainly appears to be changing. I have seen some say that the only difference was the turnovers, and I can reason with that, but I think Kentucky was the better team and when you factor that in with Mark Stoops' ability to get his team ready for this game, I think the result was fair.
**Speaking of individual plays, it's hard to say how the game would have gone, or if the outcome would have been different, but on the first play of the second half Deone Walker manhandled Trevor Reid in a 1 on 1 and put Louisville behind the sticks on a crucial drive. All of Louisville's momentum was gone after that play. Another play that sticks out is the 4th down play on Louisville's second drive of the game. A great drive, 12 plays, 74 yards netted 0 points. I do have a gripe with Louisville not rushing to the ball before the play could get reviewed. The play clock was down to 13 or 14 seconds, if I recall correctly. Louisville could have snapped it before the officials stopped the game.
**The Louisville defense battled and they hung in there with their backs against the wall. After JJ Weaver picked up the fumble and returned it inside of the Louisville 10-yard line, most defenses would have caved. Not this Louisville defense. They bowed up and held Kentucky to a field goal. The two explosive plays really stand out, however. The 70-yard pass to the TE Kattus was a huge early punch in the Cats favor. Louisville's linebackers got sucked in on the play action, and the tight end got behind them. And then a missed tackle in the open field allowed for major YAC. The other explosive play that stung quite a bit was the 3rd and 5 conversion to Barrion Brown early in the 3rd quarter. Chandler Jones got beat, and Brown made Louisville pay. Kentucky had 156 yards after the catch in this game, which is way, way too many.
**You really have to like how well Louisville ran the ball against a big, physical Kentucky front seven. Not having Cooley, Mitchel, or Evans was extremely disappointing, but you have to love Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner's attitudes. Jordan said after the game that he wanted to continue to work hard to send the seniors off the right way. Louisville actually out-gained Kentucky on the ground. That's a recipe for winning this game, and if you would have told me that Louisville had more net rushing yards, I would have said Louisville wins. Jordan averaged 6.6 YPC and Turner averaged 4.7 YPC.
**On the flip side, Louisville's passing game struggled most of the year. There were multiple occasions where Louisville had open recievers, and Brock Domann just didn't see them. Marshon Ford was running free a couple of times on key downs and Domann missed him. Malik Cunninham hasn't played well in this game ever, so I didn't hate the idea of letting Domann start. Cunningham isn't perfect, and he made a really bad decision on the interception, but he gives the team a better chance to win. It's hard to point to one reason as to why Louisville really couldn't get the passing game going, but it starts and ends at QB. Tyler Hudson was great and is an NFL-caliber wideout, but nobody really stepped up other than him. The Dee Wiggins injury certainly hurt, but Louisville's receiving corps just never progressed as the season went on.
Zooming out, let's look at the big picture and the off-season that lies ahead:
**With the way Louisville started the season, finishing at 7-5 is worthy of some praise. The team never quit, the coaching staff never quit, and having a chance to win 8 games after starting 1-2 is a turnaround that deserves credit. Losing to Kentucky by double digits to end the year certainly takes some shine off the last two months, but with the recruiting class coming in, there are some reasons to be optimistic about the future of the program. I do think there are some fans who point to the last three Governor's Cup results as to why they don't want to buy into Scott Satterfield, and I don't think that's the correct approach, but I don't think it's unreasonable. Now, what does Josh Heird do in regards to an extension? Does he wait? Does he only extend by 1-2 years? Time will tell.
**Louisville has to hit the portal hard. You're going to have a new starting QB for the first time since 2019, and I believe that Louisville will get a transfer at QB to start for one year before handing the reigns over to Pierce Clarkson. You're probably going to have to replace 2-3 starters on the offensive line. Kandra and Gonzalez are capable of plugging in, so that's not a major concern right now. At RB, Cooley, Mitchell, and Evans are gone. You have Jordan, Turner, and Rueben Owens coming in, but I think one more experienced portal RB is necessary. At WR, you have to upgrade in a big way. There are some promising freshmen (as of now) coming in, but play makers need to be brought in. At LB, an edge rusher is probably needed. A veteran inside linebacker is probably needed. I think the nose tackle position with Tell, Thomas, and Dawson is in good shape.
** Who stays and who goes? Trevion Cooley and Jalen Mitchell will be entering the portal. Caleb Banks will be entering the portal. But, there will be more. You have to avoid losing guys you don't want to lose. Will there be any 'seniors' come back that have another year of edibility? There is a lot to play out with roster turnover, and even if nobody unexpected leaves, Louisville still has a lot of holes to fill.
**The coaching carousel always results in assistant coaching changes across the country, so that is also something to keep an eye on.
**Looking like the Sun Bowl is a safe bet.
Until next fall.
Before we zoom out and look at some big picture items, here are a few thoughts on yesterday's loss to UK:
**I don't think the gap between the two programs is significant, but I do think it's evident that this game means more to Mark Stoops and Kentucky than it does Scott Satterfield and Louisville at this point in time. With that said, I do think Kentucky's recruiting success over the last couple of years yielded some talent that Louisville can't match right now. Barrion Brown and Deone Walker are two dudes that can make individual plays that can win a game. Louisville just hasn't recruited at that level, but that certainly appears to be changing. I have seen some say that the only difference was the turnovers, and I can reason with that, but I think Kentucky was the better team and when you factor that in with Mark Stoops' ability to get his team ready for this game, I think the result was fair.
**Speaking of individual plays, it's hard to say how the game would have gone, or if the outcome would have been different, but on the first play of the second half Deone Walker manhandled Trevor Reid in a 1 on 1 and put Louisville behind the sticks on a crucial drive. All of Louisville's momentum was gone after that play. Another play that sticks out is the 4th down play on Louisville's second drive of the game. A great drive, 12 plays, 74 yards netted 0 points. I do have a gripe with Louisville not rushing to the ball before the play could get reviewed. The play clock was down to 13 or 14 seconds, if I recall correctly. Louisville could have snapped it before the officials stopped the game.
**The Louisville defense battled and they hung in there with their backs against the wall. After JJ Weaver picked up the fumble and returned it inside of the Louisville 10-yard line, most defenses would have caved. Not this Louisville defense. They bowed up and held Kentucky to a field goal. The two explosive plays really stand out, however. The 70-yard pass to the TE Kattus was a huge early punch in the Cats favor. Louisville's linebackers got sucked in on the play action, and the tight end got behind them. And then a missed tackle in the open field allowed for major YAC. The other explosive play that stung quite a bit was the 3rd and 5 conversion to Barrion Brown early in the 3rd quarter. Chandler Jones got beat, and Brown made Louisville pay. Kentucky had 156 yards after the catch in this game, which is way, way too many.
**You really have to like how well Louisville ran the ball against a big, physical Kentucky front seven. Not having Cooley, Mitchel, or Evans was extremely disappointing, but you have to love Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner's attitudes. Jordan said after the game that he wanted to continue to work hard to send the seniors off the right way. Louisville actually out-gained Kentucky on the ground. That's a recipe for winning this game, and if you would have told me that Louisville had more net rushing yards, I would have said Louisville wins. Jordan averaged 6.6 YPC and Turner averaged 4.7 YPC.
**On the flip side, Louisville's passing game struggled most of the year. There were multiple occasions where Louisville had open recievers, and Brock Domann just didn't see them. Marshon Ford was running free a couple of times on key downs and Domann missed him. Malik Cunninham hasn't played well in this game ever, so I didn't hate the idea of letting Domann start. Cunningham isn't perfect, and he made a really bad decision on the interception, but he gives the team a better chance to win. It's hard to point to one reason as to why Louisville really couldn't get the passing game going, but it starts and ends at QB. Tyler Hudson was great and is an NFL-caliber wideout, but nobody really stepped up other than him. The Dee Wiggins injury certainly hurt, but Louisville's receiving corps just never progressed as the season went on.
Zooming out, let's look at the big picture and the off-season that lies ahead:
**With the way Louisville started the season, finishing at 7-5 is worthy of some praise. The team never quit, the coaching staff never quit, and having a chance to win 8 games after starting 1-2 is a turnaround that deserves credit. Losing to Kentucky by double digits to end the year certainly takes some shine off the last two months, but with the recruiting class coming in, there are some reasons to be optimistic about the future of the program. I do think there are some fans who point to the last three Governor's Cup results as to why they don't want to buy into Scott Satterfield, and I don't think that's the correct approach, but I don't think it's unreasonable. Now, what does Josh Heird do in regards to an extension? Does he wait? Does he only extend by 1-2 years? Time will tell.
**Louisville has to hit the portal hard. You're going to have a new starting QB for the first time since 2019, and I believe that Louisville will get a transfer at QB to start for one year before handing the reigns over to Pierce Clarkson. You're probably going to have to replace 2-3 starters on the offensive line. Kandra and Gonzalez are capable of plugging in, so that's not a major concern right now. At RB, Cooley, Mitchell, and Evans are gone. You have Jordan, Turner, and Rueben Owens coming in, but I think one more experienced portal RB is necessary. At WR, you have to upgrade in a big way. There are some promising freshmen (as of now) coming in, but play makers need to be brought in. At LB, an edge rusher is probably needed. A veteran inside linebacker is probably needed. I think the nose tackle position with Tell, Thomas, and Dawson is in good shape.
** Who stays and who goes? Trevion Cooley and Jalen Mitchell will be entering the portal. Caleb Banks will be entering the portal. But, there will be more. You have to avoid losing guys you don't want to lose. Will there be any 'seniors' come back that have another year of edibility? There is a lot to play out with roster turnover, and even if nobody unexpected leaves, Louisville still has a lot of holes to fill.
**The coaching carousel always results in assistant coaching changes across the country, so that is also something to keep an eye on.
**Looking like the Sun Bowl is a safe bet.
Until next fall.
