Stability is Key

[Sultan__of__Swine]

I am as frustrated with the outcome of the past two weeks as anyone. I watched the 4th quarter meltdown today and the missed field goal. While I agree Coach Satterfield and his staff are underachieving, I do not believe that him leaving either by choice or by force would benefit UofL football. The program needs stability. The best programs in the country do not make coaching changes every 3-years when their head coach is struggling. The decision to make a change has to be more than wins and losses.

What I see is a coach that by and large can put together a game plan that works, but is plagued by a horrible defensive scheme that does not have the personnel to execute it. I also see a head coach trying to execute at the P5 level making questionable decisions with clock management, special teams, and offensive play calling. I do see his recruits, many redshirt freshman making impacts on the field. I see a locker room that appears to be unified and players that seem to represent the school well on and off the field. I don't see the incompetence of Ron Cooper or Steve Kragthorpe and I don't see disunity and apathy like I saw under Petrino 2.0. This however, looks like a coach, staff, and roster that is still incomplete, work in progress.

As much as it pains me to write this, all you have to do is look at UK and the patience that Barnhart has had with Stoops. While I believe a lot of what Stoops and UK have assembled is sketchy, it is working. The program is very stable from a talent perspective, has an identity now, and is winning. UofL would benefit in allowing Satterfield to remain for 5 years and build the program completely. By doing so it will stabilize and balance out the classes and hopefully produce some positive results we all want to see.

I do believe Satterfield much like Stoops, will need to makes some changes on the staff. DC Brown really needs to be evaluated. The defense has not improved at all on the line and he appears to be running a scheme for which he has not recruited the correct personnel. The question will be if Satterfield will be willing to make those moves? Will Tyra or the next AD make him make those changes? Will the AD be able to communicate the plan to the fans and donors so that they'll remain supportive through the process. Having the fan and donor support is as almost as critical as Satterfield doing his part. Without leadership and effective communication from the AD, it will be hard to manage patience and expectations.

 

[rockycard]

Satterfield isn’t going to get any sympathy from our fanbase after getting turned down in South Carolina. He burned bridges and now he’s showing everyone why he was turned down.

 

[CardinalDave]

Excellent analysis Sultan.
At U of L the financial situation is not as strong as it once was and there is a looming possibility of needing to secure a new men’s Basketball coach.
In regards to Kentucky: I don’t think Stoops is anything more than an average coach BUT he has a coaching and recruiting philosophy that he sticks with and, most importantly, he was given time by his AD to fully implement both. The primary block that Louisville needs to build upon is stability in the coaching staff ( which bleeds into recruiting strategy, etc)

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

The avg tenure for a HC in D1 is roughly 4 yrs. He's on his 3rd here. He tried to exit after 2., and it's not like that was some kind of bluff or extortion attempt.

The theory in itself makes sense, but it's probably not applicable to this HC, at this program, and lengthy stability has never really been a thing at Louisville. Louisville HC history that last couple decades mirrors that national avg of roughly 4 yrs.

The pipe gave us a decade, but it was just different times then, a completely different era. But he is the example of what you're going for I think. Yes, fans should hope for a legendary HC. I'd settle for a guy with ties to the program that wants to build this his way, for the long haul. Will that ever happen?

Of course support him while he's here, just don't think he wants what you want OP, I think he packs his own bags after this year or the next.

 

[rockycard]

So according to this thread we should’ve given kragthorpe more time? Satterfield wanted out of here last year, that’s not what I want when waiting for a coach to turn this around. Satterfield is a good sunbelt type of coach, he’s in over his head here.

 

[Knucklehank1]

“Of course support him while he's here, just don't think he wants what you want OP, I think he packs his own bags after this year or the next.”

Not disagreeing but I’m not sure where Satt would be planning to go after he packs his bags? There’s no way he gets a sniff at a P5 program in the next two years. He’s lost his leverage now that he’s halfway through his contract. He’s gonna have to actually produce results to get an extension. I’m glad we didn’t give him a raise or extension after his flirtation with USCjr.

 

[Knucklehank1]

So according to this thread we should’ve given kragthorpe more time? Satterfield wanted out of here last year, that’s not what I want when waiting for a coach to turn this around. Satterfield is a good sunbelt type of coach, he’s in over his head here.

In the second paragraph the OP flatly states that he doesn’t “see the incompetence of Steve Kragthorpe or Ron Cooper”. No one on this thread suggested Krags should’ve gotten more time.

 

[Sultan__of__Swine]

The avg tenure for a HC in D1 is roughly 4 yrs. He's on his 3rd here. He tried to exit after 2., and it's not like that was some kind of bluff or extortion attempt.

The theory in itself makes sense, but it's probably not applicable to this HC, at this program, and lengthy stability has never really been a thing at Louisville. Louisville HC history that last couple decades mirrors that national avg of roughly 4 yrs.

The pipe gave us a decade, but it was just different times then, a completely different era. But he is the example of what you're going for I think. Yes, fans should hope for a legendary HC. I'd settle for a guy with ties to the program that wants to build this his way, for the long haul. Will that ever happen?

Of course support him while he's here, just don't think he wants what you want OP, I think he packs his own bags after this year or the next.

He wasn’t my first choice as I feel he is a fish out of water here. However, he’s here and I believe he is a competitive coach. I don’t see a coach trying to win with shortcuts like BP 2.0 living off Strong’s players and plugging in transfers. Even after 5 years he doesn’t work out I feel the cupboard will be stocked with sufficient talent and character guys that another coach could immediately win with.

 

[rockycard]

In the second paragraph the OP flatly states that he doesn’t “see the incompetence of Steve Kragthorpe or Ron Cooper”. No one on this thread suggested Krags should’ve gotten more time.

What does he see then? Surely our recruiting isn’t getting him hopeful, we are not getting many P5 type recruits. I don’t see adjustments made during the game, except for the prevent sh!t that we do when we’re trying not to lose instead of keeping our foot on the throat.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

“Of course support him while he's here, just don't think he wants what you want OP, I think he packs his own bags after this year or the next.”

Not disagreeing but I’m not sure where Satt would be planning to go after he packs his bags? There’s no way he gets a sniff at a P5 program in the next two years. He’s lost his leverage now that he’s halfway through his contract. He’s gonna have to actually produce results to get an extension. I’m glad we didn’t give him a raise or extension after his flirtation with USCjr.

Every year marquee jobs open, and dominoes fall. Of course he's not in the running for USC, Nebraska, Miami FLA, or LSU, but once those programs make their moves they seem to need to make, it could be a trickle down if they pull a HCs with experience.

Plus we never know who retires unexpectedly.

I don't have a specific destination in mind for Satterfield, he very well may return here. But there's going to be movement around the country like there is every year, and if he isn't face planting he might be a candidate somewhere.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

As I've seen maybe ITT or others, he probably needs to upgrade at DC. There is some play making ability on that side of the ball, hell they straight up won the UCF game in the end. Those guys can fly around a little bit back there.

Also, it is true this is a very young roster. I don't know what the transfer portal does after the season, some pointed to the Cards getting hit hard last year by that. So I don't know what happens this time? If your young guys are moving on you don't get to see the development here.

We'll see.

The guy is not incompetent just not sure he's your answer to the question, "Who is gonna be the next HC to get this program into the T25?"

 

[Knucklehank1]

What does he see then? Surely our recruiting isn’t getting him hopeful, we are not getting many P5 type recruits. I don’t see adjustments made during the game, except for the prevent sh!t that we do when we’re trying not to lose instead of keeping our foot on the throat.

Changes will likely need to be made but certainly we’ve seen program improvement from the 2018 debacle. He runs an offensive scheme that scores enough and runs the clock enough that we are putting ourselves in a position to win. He runs a fourth quarter scheme that puts us in a position to lose. Clearly he needs to adjust that. I think he’s done a good job getting young playmakers and I think we have a core group of young guys on the defense. We don’t have the defensive line talent to run that scheme effectively - Gillotte will be a beast though. I questioned the hire back when it was made and certainly the jury is still out if it will ultimately work out. But cycling through coaches is a tough way to build a program. Has our program ever fired two coaches in a row?

 

[Guardman]

I am as frustrated with the outcome of the past two weeks as anyone. I watched the 4th quarter meltdown today and the missed field goal. While I agree Coach Satterfield and his staff are underachieving, I do not believe that him leaving either by choice or by force would benefit UofL football. The program needs stability. The best programs in the country do not make coaching changes every 3-years when their head coach is struggling. The decision to make a change has to be more than wins and losses.

What I see is a coach that by and large can put together a game plan that works, but is plagued by a horrible defensive scheme that does not have the personnel to execute it. I also see a head coach trying to execute at the P5 level making questionable decisions with clock management, special teams, and offensive play calling. I do see his recruits, many redshirt freshman making impacts on the field. I see a locker room that appears to be unified and players that seem to represent the school well on and off the field. I don't see the incompetence of Ron Cooper or Steve Kragthorpe and I don't see disunity and apathy like I saw under Petrino 2.0. This however, looks like a coach, staff, and roster that is still incomplete, work in progress.

As much as it pains me to write this, all you have to do is look at UK and the patience that Barnhart has had with Stoops. While I believe a lot of what Stoops and UK have assembled is sketchy, it is working. The program is very stable from a talent perspective, has an identity now, and is winning. UofL would benefit in allowing Satterfield to remain for 5 years and build the program completely. By doing so it will stabilize and balance out the classes and hopefully produce some positive results we all want to see.

I do believe Satterfield much like Stoops, will need to makes some changes on the staff. DC Brown really needs to be evaluated. The defense has not improved at all on the line and he appears to be running a scheme for which he has not recruited the correct personnel. The question will be if Satterfield will be willing to make those moves? Will Tyra or the next AD make him make those changes? Will the AD be able to communicate the plan to the fans and donors so that they'll remain supportive through the process. Having the fan and donor support is as almost as critical as Satterfield doing his part. Without leadership and effective communication from the AD, it will be hard to manage patience and expectations.

Well Stated. Could not agree more.

 

[rockycard]

Changes will likely need to be made but certainly we’ve seen program improvement from the 2018 debacle. He runs an offensive scheme that scores enough and runs the clock enough that we are putting ourselves in a position to win. He runs a fourth quarter scheme that puts us in a position to lose. Clearly he needs to adjust that. I think he’s done a good job getting young playmakers and I think we have a core group of young guys on the defense. We don’t have the defensive line talent to run that scheme effectively - Gillotte will be a beast though. I questioned the hire back when it was made and certainly the jury is still out if it will ultimately work out. But cycling through coaches is a tough way to build a program. Has our program ever fired two coaches in a row?

I would have the same faith in him if he was recruiting well. Our recruiting is not very promising right now.

 

[USMC Cat]

Excellent analysis Sultan.
At U of L the financial situation is not as strong as it once was and there is a looming possibility of needing to secure a new men’s Basketball coach.
In regards to Kentucky: I don’t think Stoops is anything more than an average coach BUT he has a coaching and recruiting philosophy that he sticks with and, most importantly, he was given time by his AD to fully implement both. The primary block that Louisville needs to build upon is stability in the coaching staff ( which bleeds into recruiting strategy, etc)

UK had (until the LSU beat down) won six games in a row by less than a TD.

Average coaches don't close out close games like that, and certainly not six times in a row (three of them being ranked).

From the outside in, or because of jealousy, it may look like a gimmick, but UK has built the best offensive line in college football (in ALL of college football) and I don't think that's because of some magic trick. It's because Stoops prioritized a big boy, SEC, ram it down your throat philosophy. He recruited both sides of the trenches, HARD, and now the best lineman in the country are wanting to come be a part of it.

That said, Stoops won like 9 or 10 games in his first three seasons at UK. I'd be careful about wishing to replace your HC, yet again.

 

[Thecycle27]

No one wants to hear it but patience is needed. It takes a long time to build a program. There are no quick fixes.

They do have to fix the defense. There should be nothing off the table at this point, new coaches, scheme, players etc. They really are showing signs but they are really struggling in the 4th quarters

 

[Mayoman]

I would have the same faith in him if he was recruiting well. Our recruiting is not very promising right now.

When a young immature recruit sees 70+ TFr and RSFr on the roster he may pause at jumping in behind that many very young players already on there.

Think...playing time for me might be limited and I will have to work really really hard to EARN a starting job???? Naw...I will pass.

 

[CommodoreCard]

UK had (until the LSU beat down) won six games in a row by less than a TD.

Average coaches don't close out close games like that, and certainly not six times in a row (three of them being ranked).

From the outside in, or because of jealousy, it may look like a gimmick, but UK has built the best offensive line in college football (in ALL of college football) and I don't think that's because of some magic trick. It's because Stoops prioritized a big boy, SEC, ram it down your throat philosophy. He recruited both sides of the trenches, HARD, and now the best lineman in the country are wanting to come be a part of it.

That said, Stoops won like 9 or 10 games in his first three seasons at UK. I'd be careful about wishing to replace your HC, yet again.

Having the local police, media, and prosecutors in your back pocket helps a lot too. Go kiss Matty Bangs behind, he’s calling you.

 

[Deeva]

Having the local police, media, and prosecutors in your back pocket helps a lot too. Go kiss Matty Bangs behind, he’s calling you.

Ditto 😘

 

[nccardfan]

When a young immature recruit sees 70+ TFr and RSFr on the roster he may pause at jumping in behind that many very young players already on there.

Think...playing time for me might be limited and I will have to work really really hard to EARN a starting job???? Naw...I will pass.

Yep, that sounds like your mantra..

 

[CardX]

It’s hard to have stability when your coach sucks at his job. Look, our basketball program is going to enter into oblivion soon. We need at least one marquee, revenue generating program to be something other than below average. We need a shot in the arm.

 

[CardsFirst]

So according to this thread we should’ve given kragthorpe more time? Satterfield wanted out of here last year, that’s not what I want when waiting for a coach to turn this around. Satterfield is a good sunbelt type of coach, he’s in over his head here.

Kragthorpe inherited a Ferrari, Satt inherited a broke down pinto. Kragthorpe also didn’t have a COVID year. I think he gets one more year only because he has a large number of RS Freshman, Freshman, and Sophomores. If things don’t improve next year I’m all for him being sent packing.

 

[Mike'sMarbles]

I don't want to use UK as a measuring stick, but since the "stick with Satterfield like UK stuck with Stoops" argument came up...

1. Satterfield's results look more like Joker Phillips: Bowl, no bowl, no bowl(TBD but seems likely), in 3 years.

2. UK jettisoned Joker after 3 years. This is Satterfield's 3rd year.

3. Stoops came really close to a Bowl in year 2 & 3. I don't feel like we are close to a Bowl this year.

4. Stoops recruited a ton of 4-star players his first few years and had some decently (for UK) ranked recruiting classes. How is Satterfield doing? 1 good class so far and this year's class doesn't look great.

I also question the thought that Satterfield coaching Louisville for 4-5 years will somehow lead to stability. If he's losing, players are not going to come here, and with the new Portal rules, whatever talent he has is going to want to play for a Bowl contender. You can't sell the program to recruits based on games like Saturday, which is why that game was so crucial.

 

[SpotHogCard]

I don't want to use UK as a measuring stick, but since the "stick with Satterfield like UK stuck with Stoops" argument came up...

1. Satterfield's results look more like Joker Phillips: Bowl, no bowl, no bowl(TBD but seems likely), in 3 years.

2. UK jettisoned Joker after 3 years. This is Satterfield's 3rd year.

3. Stoops came really close to a Bowl in year 2 & 3. I don't feel like we are close to a Bowl this year.

4. Stoops recruited a ton of 4-star players his first few years and had some decently (for UK) ranked recruiting classes. How is Satterfield doing? 1 good class so far and this year's class doesn't look great.

I also question the thought that Satterfield coaching Louisville for 4-5 years will somehow lead to stability. If he's losing, players are not going to come here, and with the new Portal rules, whatever talent he has is going to want to play for a Bowl contender. You can't sell the program to recruits based on games like Saturday, which is why that game was so crucial.

Can you imagine what any DE or DL recruit that was considering us is thinking right now?

 

[jmac1029]

Stoops lost to Western Kentucky and had to beat EKU in overtime in his first 3 years.

 

[Knucklehank1]

I don't want to use UK as a measuring stick, but since the "stick with Satterfield like UK stuck with Stoops" argument came up...

1. Satterfield's results look more like Joker Phillips: Bowl, no bowl, no bowl(TBD but seems likely), in 3 years.

2. UK jettisoned Joker after 3 years. This is Satterfield's 3rd year.

3. Stoops came really close to a Bowl in year 2 & 3. I don't feel like we are close to a Bowl this year.

4. Stoops recruited a ton of 4-star players his first few years and had some decently (for UK) ranked recruiting classes. How is Satterfield doing? 1 good class so far and this year's class doesn't look great.

I also question the thought that Satterfield coaching Louisville for 4-5 years will somehow lead to stability. If he's losing, players are not going to come here, and with the new Portal rules, whatever talent he has is going to want to play for a Bowl contender. You can't sell the program to recruits based on games like Saturday, which is why that game was so crucial.

You presented facts which are important to see. But you also need some context. When you bring up Joker, it’s important to remember that Rich Brooks had just retired and taken UK to a bowl. It was one of the most stable times in UK football history and Joker inherited that. On the other hand, Satt inherited an absolute mess and ultimately lost an entire recruiting cycle. That’s a big reason their classes are so uneven. Also you said it doesn’t feel like we are close to a bowl this year. While I don’t think we will make a bowl, I also recognize that we are 4 points away from being 5-1.

 

[rockycard]

Stoops lost to Western Kentucky and had to beat EKU in overtime in his first 3 years.

And had a 4th quarter comeback this year against Chattanooga.

 

[502Cards1]

Here’s the problem no one is talking about, Malik is a top 5 QB in the ACC and is playing EXCEPTIONALLY well. Odds are he’s gone and next year we really go to shit. This WAS the year and we threw it away. With how weak the ACC is this year we had a chance and COACHING costed these kids. Had a chance at 7-8 wins now 5-7 is probably the most likely with 6-6 as a prayer. Garbage clock management and the inability to adjust throughout a game is in excusable from P5 coaches.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I don't want to use UK as a measuring stick, but since the "stick with Satterfield like UK stuck with Stoops" argument came up...

1. Satterfield's results look more like Joker Phillips: Bowl, no bowl, no bowl(TBD but seems likely), in 3 years.

2. UK jettisoned Joker after 3 years. This is Satterfield's 3rd year.

3. Stoops came really close to a Bowl in year 2 & 3. I don't feel like we are close to a Bowl this year.

4. Stoops recruited a ton of 4-star players his first few years and had some decently (for UK) ranked recruiting classes. How is Satterfield doing? 1 good class so far and this year's class doesn't look great.

I also question the thought that Satterfield coaching Louisville for 4-5 years will somehow lead to stability. If he's losing, players are not going to come here, and with the new Portal rules, whatever talent he has is going to want to play for a Bowl contender. You can't sell the program to recruits based on games like Saturday, which is why that game was so crucial.

From what I remember, Phillips inherited a decent team that could compete but not really win big and by the time he left they were the worst team in the nation. I think Satt inherited the worst team in the nation and made us competitive immediately.

And YES. We are competitive. Remember 2018 if you want to know what a team that's fallen apart looks like. We aren't getting blown out, we just aren't closing out games well. In 2019 when Satt arrived, remember how we won all our close games? We had more seniors and juniors in those groups, now we're younger. Makes sense that older teams close games and younger teams don't.

 

[Thecycle27]

It always boils down to recruiting. The unknown with the Satterfield hire was recruiting. He built a really good program at a lower level. They are fine offensively.

The problem is they haven’t recruited very well on the defensive side of the ball until last year. They have young kids that are going to be really good. Unfortunately they can’t follow up again with another strong class due to numbers.

No easy way to do it. Dline has to be evaluated from a coaching and recruiting standpoint.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

It always boils down to recruiting. The unknown with the Satterfield hire was recruiting. He built a really good program at a lower level. They are fine offensively.

The problem is they haven’t recruited very well on the defensive side of the ball until last year. They have young kids that are going to be really good. Unfortunately they can’t follow up again with another strong class due to numbers.

No easy way to do it. Dline has to be evaluated from a coaching and recruiting standpoint.

"Until last year?"

Well that's just not fair to Scott. He's really only had 2 classes to recruit. You can't really turn a program around with 2 classes. I mean to be honest, none of the 3rd, 4th, or 5th year guys are his, which are generally the heart of your program. No upperclassmen unless they're transfers or jucos are really his guys.

He's had 3 recruiting classes.
The 2019 class he barely got the job and the early signing period was over. Bobby left him nothing. So a lost class. This isn't an excuse, it's a fact.

The 2020 class was more about NUMBERS as we didn't have a roster. Not to mention you really only had one summer to make up ground and get guys. Not a talented class, but needed to be bigger just to get guys that could play.

This 2021 class was the first one he had 2 summers to really go out and get who he wanted. And guess what? These guys are talented.


To just get a competitive team he had to rely on a lot of Grad Transfers and Juco guys to fill spots. THe 1st and 2nd year guys are his. I think to be fair you need to at least see what next year looks like before determining if his guys can cut it at this level. Saying he didn't recruit the line well just isn't accurate, because the younger guys he has brought in the last 2 classes look pretty solid.

 

[Thecycle27]

They didn’t recruit good on defense. Part of the problem is they thought their model at App St. would work at Louisville. They made an adjustment last year. Bigger guys on the DL.

It takes time to build a program. I would feel much better if they could bring in a big class this year. They have played really good offenses so that matters. Brown and crew have time to turn the defense around this year.

 

[Rollem Cards]

Got to get some big uglies via the portal would seem to be the plan.