Schedule strength once again

[TheRealVille]

It is so frustrating that we're here again having to hear the same thing we've always heard when it has come to Louisville football.

Strength of schedule.

Moving to the ACC hasn't appeared to have changed that. Despite other top 6 teams having played a similar schedule. (Michigan, Washington) Michigan hasn't played any team worth a penny on the road and Washington's best win is at Utah. The Cards thrashing of FSU means little and Houston is now considered no better than UK. It's just what everyone is used to saying about Louisville football.

What if the Cards would have lost to FSU but had beaten Clemson? They would still be 8-1 with the same schedule. Would they still be in the same situation? SOS still being the issue? Texas A&M was #4 and they went out and lost to a team with a losing record. Louisville's chances at the playoff should not be determined by their SOS when there is teams like Washington and Michigan with the same issue. Now if those two teams don't lose, they should stay ahead but does anyone think if Michigan loses to OSU their weak schedule will be a determining factor in their playoff chances?

 

[teamcanada]

In years past one loss would eliminate the Cards from contention all together. The year they went to the Orange Bowl the debate was wether undefeated UofL team deserved to make the Championship game. So while the strength of schedule argument is still there, it's still lightyears better than it was 10 years ago.

 

[real2it]

No need to get frustrated because you are going to stay frustrated. It's the political party line of the perceived Blue Blood conferences with the perceived Blue Blood programs.

Even in a year where any casual football fan can see that the SEC is down the committee has shown bias in ranking so many SEC teams. The only thing that UL can do is control our own controllables: starting with winning the games on the schedule and try to schedule stronger OOC games. Everything else is just noise that will keep you frustrated.

 

[Rollem Cards]

I wouldn't say light years.

But at least we don't get TOTALLY dissed like before. Just a little now.

 

[MDCardsFan]

Point bleak, Louisville has a better SOS than Washington, so if it comes down to us and Washington for that 4th spot, we'll get in.

 

[SchmidtyNole]

It is so frustrating that we're here again having to hear the same thing we've always heard when it has come to Louisville football.

Strength of schedule.

Moving to the ACC hasn't appeared to have changed that. Despite other top 6 teams having played a similar schedule. (Michigan, Washington) Michigan hasn't played any team worth a penny on the road and Washington's best win is at Utah. The Cards thrashing of FSU means little and Houston is now considered no better than UK. It's just what everyone is used to saying about Louisville football.

What if the Cards would have lost to FSU but had beaten Clemson? They would still be 8-1 with the same schedule. Would they still be in the same situation? SOS still being the issue? Texas A&M was #4 and they went out and lost to a team with a losing record. Louisville's chances at the playoff should not be determined by their SOS when there is teams like Washington and Michigan with the same issue. Now if those two teams don't lose, they should stay ahead but does anyone think if Michigan loses to OSU their weak schedule will be a determining factor in their playoff chances?

What is hurting Louisville's strength of schedule isn't being in the ACC. It is these two factors:

1) Non-Conference Schedule - Houston now has two losses, Kentucky is Kentucky and the other two opponents aren't going to help Strength of Schedule.

2) The Coastal Crossover schedule - You guys drew Duke and Virginia. Those are probably the two worst teams in the Coastal. It might be different if you'd have drawn Pittsburgh, UNC or Virginia Tech.

So again, those two factors are what is holding Louisville's schedule back. In spite of that, I think Louisville is one of the 4 best teams in the country. The issue is having the only ranked win being your win over us. But again, had you beaten Clemson it wouldn't even matter. Conference Champions do have precedent. It would take a minor miracle for a team that doesn't win its conference to make the Playoff.

 

[SchmidtyNole]

Point bleak, Louisville has a better SOS than Washington, so if it comes down to us and Washington for that 4th spot, we'll get in.

That is assuming Washington has a loss though. I'm not sure anybody from the Pac 12 can beat Washington. This is looking like it might be a year where you have four Conference Champions that are all undefeated if Michigan, Bama, Clemson and Washington all win out. It has been an unusual year because most of the time everybody has a loss at this point in the season.

 

[topdecktiger]

It is so frustrating that we're here again having to hear the same thing we've always heard when it has come to Louisville football.

Strength of schedule.

Moving to the ACC hasn't appeared to have changed that. Despite other top 6 teams having played a similar schedule. (Michigan, Washington) Michigan hasn't played any team worth a penny on the road and Washington's best win is at Utah. The Cards thrashing of FSU means little and Houston is now considered no better than UK. It's just what everyone is used to saying about Louisville football.

What if the Cards would have lost to FSU but had beaten Clemson? They would still be 8-1 with the same schedule. Would they still be in the same situation? SOS still being the issue? Texas A&M was #4 and they went out and lost to a team with a losing record. Louisville's chances at the playoff should not be determined by their SOS when there is teams like Washington and Michigan with the same issue. Now if those two teams don't lose, they should stay ahead but does anyone think if Michigan loses to OSU their weak schedule will be a determining factor in their playoff chances?

I'll say it yet again. You have to go by what the committee actually says, not what you make up in your head. You are missing a huge key element here. Michigan and Washington are undefeated. I'll say it again. Michigan and Washington are undefeated. You are trying to draw a comparison between Louisville and Michigan/Washington, but 9-0 vs. 8-1 is a significant distinction that you aren't factoring. If Louisville was also 9-0, or Michigan and Washington were both 8-1, then you might have a point, but again, Michigan and Washington are undefeated. That's making the difference, not strength of schedule.

Now, knowing how message boards work, I'm sure someone will say," Well, why is Texas A&M ranked above Washington?" Well, here's the key thing. A&M is the only 1-loss team ranked ahead of Washington. Ohio St, Louisville, Nebraska, Florida, Baylor, and West Virginia are all 1-loss P5 teams, and all of them are ranked behind Washington. So no, Louisville isn't being singled out or cheated. By that logic, Ohio St could complain that they are being punished, have a bad SOS, etc. That's not the case. It's not that the other teams are being punished. The committee just gave A&M a "bonus," if you want to look at it that way, because of their SOS and their only loss coming on the road to the #1 team. They judged that A&M was in a unique position, and due to Washington's weak SOS to date, they put A&M ahead for the time being.

So, the overall point is, Louisville is not being punished for SOS. It's just that to jump an undefeated team, you have to have a really high SOS, and the undefeated team has to have a weak SOS. That combination has to exist. The committee isn't saying Ohio St or Louisville have bad SOS. They are just saying that their SOS isn't high enough to offset the 1 loss.

 

[Morgantown Card]

Let's face it - regardless of perception, the schedule isn't any more difficult than it was in the Big East. In fact Id argue the BE schedule was more difficult.

 

[HedleyLamarr]

It will be most interesting to see if Ohio State jumps Washington this week. We should be six, with those two at 4/5. If Washington doesn't lose, and if OSU beats Michigan, there will be a crazy debate about the 4 spot. I don't see us getting closer than six, unless a bunch of wild stuff happens. So great to be up in the mix, though, and we should be as good next year. Go Cards!

 

[KozmasAgain]

I agree with SchmidtyNole it is the crossover schedule that hurt us. We are actually lucky that Louisville, FSU and Clemson are in the same division and we are a lot better off in the ACC than we were in the Big East. Can you currently name any AAC teams that are currently in the top 25?
The conference is getting stronger with the hiring of several good coaches in the ACC. In a couple of years we won't be having this problem. If we would have taken care of business by beating Clemson we wouldn't be in this position.

 

[Louisvillian]

That is assuming Washington has a loss though. I'm not sure anybody from the Pac 12 can beat Washington. This is looking like it might be a year where you have four Conference Champions that are all undefeated if Michigan, Bama, Clemson and Washington all win out. It has been an unusual year because most of the time everybody has a loss at this point in the season.

Schmidty, I think Washington St can definitely beat Washington, especially in Pullman. Not to try to rely too much on comparative scores with common opponents which is usually a bad idea in football but this one stands out:

Sept 24
Washington- 35
Arizona- 28 in OT

Last night:
Arizona- 7
Washington St- 69

Granted Arizona might have already thrown in the towel but I think the Washington-WSU game is the game for Cards fans to point to. USC also has a chance against the Huskies albeit a much smaller one IMO.

 

[SchmidtyNole]

Schmidty, I think Washington St can definitely beat Washington, especially in Pullman. Not to try to rely too much on comparative scores with common opponents which is usually a bad idea in football but this one stands out:

Sept 24
Washington- 35
Arizona- 28 in OT

Last night:
Arizona- 7
Washington St- 69

Granted Arizona might have already thrown in the towel but I think the Washington-WSU game is the game for Cards fans to point to. USC also has a chance against the Huskies albeit a much smaller one IMO.

Yep. I looked further into Washington's remaining schedule and I think USC and Washington State are both teams that could beat the Huskies.

 

[beantowncard]

This all proves only one thing: 4 teams in the playoff is too few. 8 would be better, 16 ideal IMO. 5 autobids (P5 champs) and three at-large; OR 10 autobids (all FBS conf champs and 8 at large. Also use Home fields until college super bowl. Wouldn't you love to see Auburn at Michigan in December? How about Miami at Boise? That would be cool. Take away the built in advantage for southern teams playing close to home.

 

[arizan]

Schmidty, I think Washington St can definitely beat Washington, especially in Pullman. Not to try to rely too much on comparative scores with common opponents which is usually a bad idea in football but this one stands out:

Sept 24
Washington- 35
Arizona- 28 in OT

Last night:
Arizona- 7
Washington St- 69

Granted Arizona might have already thrown in the towel but I think the Washington-WSU game is the game for Cards fans to point to. USC also has a chance against the Huskies albeit a much smaller one IMO.

WSU would also keep Washington out of the Pac-12 title game, keeping them from getting a bump for being a conference champion.

 

[Louisvillian]

WSU would also keep Washington out of the Pac-12 title game, keeping them from getting a bump for being a conference champion.

Great point. As long as WSU doesn't lose their last 2 conference games (which is hard to imagine) that's dead on.

I forgot that WSU is undefeated in conference in the same division as UW.

 

[zipp]

Schmidty, do you have the pulse of the FSU fanbase about the ACC divisional alignment and crossover game situation? Do FSU fans favor either a rebalancing of the divisions or a more frequent schedule rotation among the teams in the opposing division? Or other ideas that don't get discussed here?...

 

[SchmidtyNole]

Schmidty, do you have the pulse of the FSU fanbase about the ACC divisional alignment and crossover game situation? Do FSU fans favor either a rebalancing of the divisions or a more frequent schedule rotation among the teams in the opposing division? Or other ideas that don't get discussed here?...

Most of our fans like keeping the divisions the same as they are and keeping the permanent crossovers the same. We don't want to lose the annual Miami game rivalry.

 

[Rollem Cards]

This all proves only one thing: 4 teams in the playoff is too few. 8 would be better, 16 ideal IMO.

I firmly believe that would simply open the door for more 1-2 and maybe even 3 loss B1G, and $EC teams, just because they're B1G and $EC.

Everybody else better be undefeated, or at most 1 loss.