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Perfect Scenario

K

KenSucky

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Apr 2, 2010
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So this seems like the perfect scenario for us. Who gets in like this....?

ACC - Louisville beats kenSucky and FSU
Big Ten - Mich beats OSU; then loses to Iowa in the Conf Championship.
Pac 12 - Oreg beats Wash to win Conf championship;.
Sec - Alabama beats Georgia to win Conf championship.

Obviously if any of the other teams lose this week it throws another wrench in it, but would we have a chance here...?
 
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In that scenario the ACC > Pac Whatever. Louisville would have a greater SOS than a 1 loss Oregon.
 
KenSucky said:
So this seems like the perfect scenario for us. Who gets in like this....?

ACC - Louisville beats kenSucky and FSU
Big Ten - Mich beats OSU; then loses to Iowa in the Conf Championship.
Pac 12 - Oreg beats Wash to win Conf championship;.
Sec - Alabama beats Georgia to win Conf championship.

Obviously if any of the other teams lose this week it throws another wrench in it, but would we have a chance here...?
Click to expand...
Louisville basically has zero chance at the playoff unless there's a few enormous upsets starting this weekend.

1. Georgia losing to GT and then Alabama.
2. Alabama losing to Auburn before beating Georgia.

That would leave both SEC powerhouses with 2 losses.

3. Texas losing to Texas Tech giving them 2 losses.

4. FSU losing to Florida and or to Louisville.

5. Washington loses to Washington State and the Pac 12 championship game.
6. Oregon loses to Oregon State.

Both would then have two losses.

7. Then there's the big 10 where both Michigan and OSU would both make the playoff even if either lose to Iowa. Both would have just the one loss.

So if all of this happens Louisville could sneak in behind Michigan, OSU, and some two loss school, probably Alabama.

And it still wouldn't be a guarantee that another 2 loss team like Oregon or even Georgia wouldn't still be voted ahead of Louisville.

So like many, I agree to forget about the playoff this season. A New Years 6 bowl is what's at stake for the Cards and that would be against a one of the teams mentioned above.
 
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KenSucky said:
So this seems like the perfect scenario for us. Who gets in like this....?

ACC - Louisville beats kenSucky and FSU
Big Ten - Mich beats OSU; then loses to Iowa in the Conf Championship.
Pac 12 - Oreg beats Wash to win Conf championship;.
Sec - Alabama beats Georgia to win Conf championship.

Obviously if any of the other teams lose this week it throws another wrench in it, but would we have a chance here...?
Click to expand...
The only way I see UofL making the playoff is Georgia beating Alabama soundly, Michigan or Ohio St wins easily, Texas loses, Washington beats Oregon again, UofL wins out. Georgia is 1, Michigan or Ohio St is 2, Washington is 3 and UofL is 4
 
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KenSucky said:
So this seems like the perfect scenario for us. Who gets in like this....?

ACC - Louisville beats kenSucky and FSU
Big Ten - Mich beats OSU; then loses to Iowa in the Conf Championship.
Pac 12 - Oreg beats Wash to win Conf championship;.
Sec - Alabama beats Georgia to win Conf championship.

Obviously if any of the other teams lose this week it throws another wrench in it, but would we have a chance here...?
Click to expand...

To do any kind of projection, you’ve got to take it in two stages … what would the rankings look like after next week and then how about after the conference championship games.

So in your scenario, you get after this week:
1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. FSU, 5. Ohio State, 6. Oregon, 7. Texas, 8. Alabama, 9. Mizzou, 10. Louisville.

Then after the championship week, you get:
1. Oregon, 2. Alabama, 3. Texas (assume they won B12?), 4. Georgia, 5. Michigan, 6. Louisville, 7. Ohio State, 8. Washington, 9. Iowa, 10. Mizzou, 11. FSU.

You are definitely correct that it would be chaos, and arguments could be made for anybody in spots 4-8 to get that fourth spot. I expect that UofL would stay behind Georgia and Michigan because our loss to Pittsburgh is much worse than their losses to Alabama and Iowa.
 
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Best case scenario:

Georgia wins out (13-0), giving Bama two losses.
Ohio State or Michigan wins out (13-0), leaving a one loss Ohio State/Michigan.
Washington wins out (13-0), giving Oregon two losses.
Louisville wins out (12-1), giving Florida State its first loss.
Oklahoma wins out (11-2), giving Texas two losses.

THUS, the last CFP Spot will come down to either a One Loss ACC Champ Louisville, or a Two Loss Big-12 Champ Oklahoma... In that case, SOS will come into play.

At present Louisville's SOS is 64th, but they would have played SEVEN Bowl Eligible Teams (Eight if Virginia Tech beats Virginia on Saturday), PLUS, Louisville is the ONLY P-5 Team that would have played Twelve P-5 Teams (Winning Eleven of them), during the season.

There's no way the Committie in good conscience, could, would or should select a NON-Winning BIG One-Loss Ohio State or Michigan, or a NON-Winning Two-Loss SEC Alabama, or Two-Loss Big-12 Texas, or Missouri over Louisville!!!

And with Oklahoma having Two Losses and ranked behind Louisville in the current CFP, I don't see them leapfrogging Louisville even after beating Texas a second time!

That's you current CFP Top Ten plus Oklahoma.

PLAYOFFS:

(1) Georgia vs. (4) Louisville

(2) Ohio State/Michigan vs. (3) Washington
 
American Male said:
Best case scenario:

Georgia wins out (13-0), giving Bama two losses.
Ohio State or Michigan wins out (13-0), leaving a one loss Ohio State/Michigan.
Washington wins out (13-0), giving Oregon two losses.
Louisville wins out (12-1), giving Florida State its first loss.
Oklahoma wins out (11-2), giving Texas two losses.

THUS, the last CFP Spot will come down to either a One Loss ACC Champ Louisville, or a Two Loss Big-12 Champ Oklahoma... In that case, SOS will come into play.

At present Louisville's SOS is 64th, but they would have played SEVEN Bowl Eligible Teams (Eight if Virginia Tech beats Virginia on Saturday), PLUS, Louisville is the ONLY P-5 Team that would have played Twelve P-5 Teams (Winning Eleven of them), during the season.

There's no way the Committie in good conscience, could, would or should select a NON-Winning BIG One-Loss Ohio State or Michigan, or a NON-Winning Two-Loss SEC Alabama, or Two-Loss Big-12 Texas, or Missouri over Louisville!!!

And with Oklahoma having Two Losses and ranked behind Louisville in the current CFP, I don't see them leapfrogging Louisville even after beating Texas a second time!

That's you current CFP Top Ten plus Oklahoma.

PLAYOFFS:

(1) Georgia vs. (4) Louisville

(2) Ohio State/Michigan vs. (3) Washington
Click to expand...
No way and in good conscience? Seriously?

The no way scenario is Louisville being chosen over a 1 loss OSU/Michigan. Everyone knows this.
 
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TheRealVille said:
No way and in good conscience? Seriously?

The no way scenario is Louisville being chosen over a 1 loss OSU/Michigan. Everyone knows this.
Click to expand...

It would be close, but if the committee follows past precedent, then the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game, by virtue of not playing at all in a conference championship game, would end up ranked behind a 1 loss conference champion Louisville.

Pay close attention to where the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game ends up this week. If they fall behind an undefeated FSU, then Louisville has a chance. If the committee keeps the OSU-Mich loser ahead of an undefeated FSU, then Louisville probably wouldn’t jump them with a victory over FSU in the ACCCG.
 
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There is an avenue where UL could rise to the playoff spot, but admittedly it would depend on the rare scenario that Pushup and American Male laid out.

I am not particularly a fan of Rick Bozich, but his most recent WDRB article shares another Sportswriter’s take on why Louisville and the ACC are being treated unfairly in the polls. I am not predicting any huge swell of support for the Cards, but if the aforementioned scenario were to play out, there will be other Sports Writers pointing out that UL will have beaten more Power 5 conference opponents than any other college football team. It is a rather compelling argument for any top 10 team to present as evidence of being worthy of consideration.

Is this a dream? Yes, and a very unlikely scenario, but nonetheless it is possible.
 
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PushupMan said:
But our extra win and conference championship versus Ohio State may overcome our one bad loss. It would certainly be discussed in the committee, and that’s all we can hope for at this point.
Click to expand...
No way Louisville would be picked ahead of OSU whose one loss would be to Michigan.

The only chance Louisville has is the enormous upsets I outlined earlier in this thread. Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Washington, and Oregon could all have two losses if there are these upsets.

Michigan and OSU can only have one loss, more than likely getting them both in over every two loss team and other one loss teams.

Plus, we all know it would still be likely they would pick a 2 loss Alabama or 2 loss Oregon team because both are better than Louisville using the eye test.

This is the last 4 team playoff and they're going to pick who they think are the four best teams, regardless of records or schedule strength or number of wins against winning teams.
 
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We need Georgia to win. If Bama beats them, they are both going. Ohio State or Michigan will go . We need to hope the top teams in Big 12 and PAC all have 2 losses. We will have to beat UK and FSU convincingly to even be considered.
 
Money is the most important factor in college football otherwise the pac12 would still be in existence next year. We won't get in over a 1 loss sec or big10 team no matter how much I'd wish different. I'd even argue Washington could take another loss and they'll still disrespect Louisville and rank them higher even if we beat UK and FL state. Just want these guys to take care of business win a great bowl game and start next season way higher up the ladder.
 
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Money is always a mitigating factor, but had we beaten Pitt and remained undefeated ……. We would be in the BCS all things being the same.

I still maintain that even without Jordan playing in that game, we would have beaten Pitt convincingly if it had not been for the weather. No pun intended, but it was “a Perfect Storm“ for Pitt‘s upset. There was one particular UL offensive series that was crucial early in the game that stalled, and it was when the rain was blowing sideways. When Pitt took over it cleared up and they scored to take the lead.
 
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