Stewart Mandel with the Athletic is the source material for this speculation, and I heard it discussed on John Kurtz's pro Big XII podcast ...
What should Oregon State and Washington State do, now that Stanford and Cal have left the PAC12?
One option is to join the Mountain West. (The American Athletic Conference has already come out and said they are NOT pursuing OSU or WSU anymore).
This may wind up being the most realistic option for these two schools, but their second option could be the wildest way (and way more profitable way) for them to move forward.
Second option -- rebuild the PAC12. Why is this an option? MONEY.
--- The PAC has something close to $90 million dollars in NCAA hoops credits coming their way (over 6 years). That would be divided by 2, instead of 12.
--- In addition to that, the PAC's position in the Football Playoff means they are entitled to ONE share of the TV money from that playoff, which is close to $80 million dollars. With two years of this contract remaining, that's $160 million dollars ... which again, would be divided by 2.
Now there are some pretty big hits to the PAC out there --- namely a $50 million dollar debt owed to Comcast, and a lawsuit from the Holiday Bowl, among other things --- that the PAC needs to take care of ... BUT ... the sums of money sitting there for Oregon State and Washington State are pretty hard to ignore.
How would it work?
Well ... among the rules regarding conferences, there must be at least 8 schools in the conference for the conference to be considered viable. BUT there is a 2-year grace period to get back to that number of 8.
2 years also happens to be the length of the Mountain West Grant of Rights. AND the end of the Mountain West TV deal. Trying to add Mountain West Schools to the PAC NOW would require each MWC school to pay a $34 million dollar exit fee. Pretty impossible to overcome this. However ... In two years, that exit fee would be ZERO.
SO ...
Oregon State and Washington State would need to figure out a football schedule NEXT YEAR (easier said than done) and the year after, before inviting MWC schools.
Oregon State and Washington State would ALSO need to figure out a TV contract to ATTRACT those schools in the future. Also a gargantuan task considering how they FAILED to do this with 10 schools in the PAC12.
But they'd be sitting on $250 million dollars ... which they could use to entice some newcomers.
And could theoretically sell a PAC conference that looks like this:
Oregon State
Washington State
San Diego State
Fresno State
UNLV
Boise State
Colorado State
Air Force
That's 8.
You could go to 10 or 12 by adding any of the rest of the Mountain West ... OR by poaching from the American ... or CUSA in Texas ...
Nevada
Utah State
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Jose State
New Mexico
OR ... Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Texas State etc. ....
This would not be a Power 5 conference. But it would be a decent conference, that would have access to a highest rated non-Power 4 conference slot in a 12-team playoff.
They'd have to move NOW to pull this off.
But it'd be fun to watch if they did.
.
What should Oregon State and Washington State do, now that Stanford and Cal have left the PAC12?
One option is to join the Mountain West. (The American Athletic Conference has already come out and said they are NOT pursuing OSU or WSU anymore).
This may wind up being the most realistic option for these two schools, but their second option could be the wildest way (and way more profitable way) for them to move forward.
Second option -- rebuild the PAC12. Why is this an option? MONEY.
--- The PAC has something close to $90 million dollars in NCAA hoops credits coming their way (over 6 years). That would be divided by 2, instead of 12.
--- In addition to that, the PAC's position in the Football Playoff means they are entitled to ONE share of the TV money from that playoff, which is close to $80 million dollars. With two years of this contract remaining, that's $160 million dollars ... which again, would be divided by 2.
Now there are some pretty big hits to the PAC out there --- namely a $50 million dollar debt owed to Comcast, and a lawsuit from the Holiday Bowl, among other things --- that the PAC needs to take care of ... BUT ... the sums of money sitting there for Oregon State and Washington State are pretty hard to ignore.
How would it work?
Well ... among the rules regarding conferences, there must be at least 8 schools in the conference for the conference to be considered viable. BUT there is a 2-year grace period to get back to that number of 8.
2 years also happens to be the length of the Mountain West Grant of Rights. AND the end of the Mountain West TV deal. Trying to add Mountain West Schools to the PAC NOW would require each MWC school to pay a $34 million dollar exit fee. Pretty impossible to overcome this. However ... In two years, that exit fee would be ZERO.
SO ...
Oregon State and Washington State would need to figure out a football schedule NEXT YEAR (easier said than done) and the year after, before inviting MWC schools.
Oregon State and Washington State would ALSO need to figure out a TV contract to ATTRACT those schools in the future. Also a gargantuan task considering how they FAILED to do this with 10 schools in the PAC12.
But they'd be sitting on $250 million dollars ... which they could use to entice some newcomers.
And could theoretically sell a PAC conference that looks like this:
Oregon State
Washington State
San Diego State
Fresno State
UNLV
Boise State
Colorado State
Air Force
That's 8.
You could go to 10 or 12 by adding any of the rest of the Mountain West ... OR by poaching from the American ... or CUSA in Texas ...
Nevada
Utah State
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Jose State
New Mexico
OR ... Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Texas State etc. ....
This would not be a Power 5 conference. But it would be a decent conference, that would have access to a highest rated non-Power 4 conference slot in a 12-team playoff.
They'd have to move NOW to pull this off.
But it'd be fun to watch if they did.
.