It's on.
When you start analyzing a matchup with UNC, you are struck by a number of similarities between Louisville and them statistically despite being perceived to have very different attacks:
1. In 28 games, UNC has 202 steals on the year to Louisville's 200.
2. From the FT line, UNC is averaging 69.9% to Louisville's 69.2%. True to UNC's pedigree, they shoot 23 a game which leads the league to Louisville's 20 which is well back in league standings.
3. UNC averages 7.4 made threes a game to Louisville's 7.3; they make 37.1% to Louisville's 36.5%.
4. Louisville and North Carolina are the only two squads in the ACC that are in the top 100 nationally in offensive rebounds per game...they being 2nd, we being 12th with us a full two boards per game higher than the 3rd slot occupied by Miami(FL).
5. We force a virtually identical 14.3 and 14.21 turnovers per game.
All of that is statistical prologue to some obvious conclusions when it comes to Louisville. When Deng Adel plays well, Louisville generally is playing well. When Adel is playing well and Snyder and Mitchell are as well, Louisville not only is playing well but they haven't lost. Which brings me to some additional points...Louisville struggled at FSU (without Snyder), at Syracuse and at UVA (without Snyder and Adel) when Donovan Mitchell saddled himself with fouls. That can't happen or the game in Chapel Hill will start to resemble our season outlier, the trip to Charlottesville two weeks ago...a slow, grim goring in front of a national tv audience. If we stay out of foul trouble with our primaries, we're in good shape. Our scorers have to put points on the board, because we're not getting out of Chapel Hill with a win scoring anything less than 76-78 points would be my guess.
Given Rick's stating they have been maniacly committed to reinforcement to the need for blocking out with treadmill visits, it was all in prep for the game tomorrow night. We'll see alot more of Mathiang as a result because Mahmoud is a poor defensive rebounder, and his being isolated in the low block on Meeks' equates to some ugly moments not dissimilar to Adebayo's backing Anas down like he was a toy; I also think Jaylen Johnson becomes every bit as important as he was against Syracuse and Va Tech. A big night for Jaylen portends extremely well for Louisville because he'd be getting numbers right in the belly of the Tar Heel's greatest strength and that's the backboards. They don't block shots nearly to the extent Louisville does, so an offensive rebound should equal a putback. We don't have to win the battle of the backboards, but we can't get beat plus six. If we're even we probably are leaving with a win. It doesn't show up statistically in any other place than his propensity at foul trouble...but Carolina is much like Kentucky in that they are mediocre defensively defending the high screen and roll with their bigs; get Meeks away from the basket in those situations and look for Mitchell and Snyder in particular to thrive.
One huge advantage I think we have over North Carolina is one that we experienced two months ago this week...the need to contain the ball in transition even on made baskets like we did against Kentucky. Initially we didn't look up to it, but after the first eight minutes we adjusted really well and it directly led to the win. We have to have the same approach in Chapel Hill, because traditionally North Carolina is without peer at taking a made basket and turning it into a transition layup within five seconds.
UNC when it struggles offensively has allegedly struggled against the zone which seems odd for team that hits the offensive glass so hard, has a very good passer in the post in Meeks, a guy like Jackson who can shoot over any zone and a really good shooter in Berry...and we've been playing healthy doses of it lately to mixed results (and my God, the number of open threes can't be endured tomorrow that we had against Miami, Syracuse or VA Tech).
I'll go Louisville 79 UNC 75; I really do like us tomorrow night.
When you start analyzing a matchup with UNC, you are struck by a number of similarities between Louisville and them statistically despite being perceived to have very different attacks:
1. In 28 games, UNC has 202 steals on the year to Louisville's 200.
2. From the FT line, UNC is averaging 69.9% to Louisville's 69.2%. True to UNC's pedigree, they shoot 23 a game which leads the league to Louisville's 20 which is well back in league standings.
3. UNC averages 7.4 made threes a game to Louisville's 7.3; they make 37.1% to Louisville's 36.5%.
4. Louisville and North Carolina are the only two squads in the ACC that are in the top 100 nationally in offensive rebounds per game...they being 2nd, we being 12th with us a full two boards per game higher than the 3rd slot occupied by Miami(FL).
5. We force a virtually identical 14.3 and 14.21 turnovers per game.
All of that is statistical prologue to some obvious conclusions when it comes to Louisville. When Deng Adel plays well, Louisville generally is playing well. When Adel is playing well and Snyder and Mitchell are as well, Louisville not only is playing well but they haven't lost. Which brings me to some additional points...Louisville struggled at FSU (without Snyder), at Syracuse and at UVA (without Snyder and Adel) when Donovan Mitchell saddled himself with fouls. That can't happen or the game in Chapel Hill will start to resemble our season outlier, the trip to Charlottesville two weeks ago...a slow, grim goring in front of a national tv audience. If we stay out of foul trouble with our primaries, we're in good shape. Our scorers have to put points on the board, because we're not getting out of Chapel Hill with a win scoring anything less than 76-78 points would be my guess.
Given Rick's stating they have been maniacly committed to reinforcement to the need for blocking out with treadmill visits, it was all in prep for the game tomorrow night. We'll see alot more of Mathiang as a result because Mahmoud is a poor defensive rebounder, and his being isolated in the low block on Meeks' equates to some ugly moments not dissimilar to Adebayo's backing Anas down like he was a toy; I also think Jaylen Johnson becomes every bit as important as he was against Syracuse and Va Tech. A big night for Jaylen portends extremely well for Louisville because he'd be getting numbers right in the belly of the Tar Heel's greatest strength and that's the backboards. They don't block shots nearly to the extent Louisville does, so an offensive rebound should equal a putback. We don't have to win the battle of the backboards, but we can't get beat plus six. If we're even we probably are leaving with a win. It doesn't show up statistically in any other place than his propensity at foul trouble...but Carolina is much like Kentucky in that they are mediocre defensively defending the high screen and roll with their bigs; get Meeks away from the basket in those situations and look for Mitchell and Snyder in particular to thrive.
One huge advantage I think we have over North Carolina is one that we experienced two months ago this week...the need to contain the ball in transition even on made baskets like we did against Kentucky. Initially we didn't look up to it, but after the first eight minutes we adjusted really well and it directly led to the win. We have to have the same approach in Chapel Hill, because traditionally North Carolina is without peer at taking a made basket and turning it into a transition layup within five seconds.
UNC when it struggles offensively has allegedly struggled against the zone which seems odd for team that hits the offensive glass so hard, has a very good passer in the post in Meeks, a guy like Jackson who can shoot over any zone and a really good shooter in Berry...and we've been playing healthy doses of it lately to mixed results (and my God, the number of open threes can't be endured tomorrow that we had against Miami, Syracuse or VA Tech).
I'll go Louisville 79 UNC 75; I really do like us tomorrow night.
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