Morning after evaluation

[LeFors4Ever]

Well we disappointed our bride, so what did we see?

1) The wideouts are not talented enough right now. We had 2 NFL wideouts and a great back out of the backfield in Hawkins that are gone, so it's not going to be easy replacing that production. We lost our OC and QB coach. A new OL coach too. So going against SEC athletes in game 1 wasn't optimal. Now all offseason we just assumed Watkins and Ford would step in and replace it easily, just like Puma was going to replace Lamar easily. Now they can't get worse with experience, but it is a huge huge huge step down in talent and that was something we've taken for granted for several years.

2) Malik? I mean he isn't a great decision maker and that's noticeable. He can't really play slow and the defense eats him up when they have time to react. We no longer have a safety valve of a big play guy to help him out. He needs to run no huddle and a fast offense before the defense can react. It reminds me or Mariota to an extent, where Mariota was great in the fast offense in college, but struggled when he played slower. Also, he's taking way too many hits and I really would like to see Conley. We lost Puma to transfer, Webb to transfer, McCaffrey to transfer, Travis to transfer, Purdy decommitted, etc. So Conley seems to be our only future option at the moment and he needs some reps in year 3, especially if Malik's health is a concern.

3) The defense actually wasn't too bad. You can only hold off an offense like that so long before you break. I mean 26-0 at the half and no offensive support. Not to mention Montgomery's ejection did not help. I think the unit overall did pretty good. Now we aren't the 1985 Bears, but just remember this was the same team that was giving up 50-60 points regularly 2-3 years ago. We can make plays. The pass rush was not great, but Ole Miss was rated as one of the better Offensive Lines returning. We won't see to many offenses like that the rest of the year.

4) Rome is not built in a day. Ole Miss is on another talent level than us right now. This game looked like the Miami, Clemson, and Kentucky games the last few years. We just now have freshman and sophomores that are Scott's, because remember, this year's Juniors were from that non-existent 2019 class that Bobby wrecked and the ones older were from the classes Bobby had before. Unless we got lucky and brought in the next Urban Meyer, this rebuild was never going to be easy. This isn't the CUSA, Big East, or AAC where we were SPOILED with easy rebuilds. In the Power 5 it takes time. You have to build depth and redshirt guys. You need 5th year seniors and a strong 2 deep on both sides of the field.

5) Going with #4, I think it was great seeing a lot of the younger guys getting into the game and breaking into the depth chart. The 3rd and 4th year guys we have are transfers and Bobby leftovers, patchwork Scott needed to just have a somewhat competitive roster. I think you see the talent of the younger guys breaking through and it's so good getting them reps. We basically didn't have freshman in 2019 and last year's group didn't get a real year due to COVID, so the young guys are breaking through. We don't have a lot of good experience, but the younger guys look good.

6) With all that said, it's not good for CSS. The SC interview hurt him so bad and took away his loyal southern boy charm, it made him look like a job hopper and a con-man. I really thought it wasn't a good fit because he never coached Power 5 football and never really left App State. From rural small time to urban Power 5. I think the situation we're in now wasn't going to be good for any coach, but a guy like Scott can't recruit at a level to make the rebuild go faster. The cultural difference in having to rebuild a roster and team compared to the last era of trash talking fun just wasn't a good fit. I think Scott's plan for a rebuild can work in a down ACC, but to get to the level we want we're going to have to wait until like 2023-2024. I don't think we'll have the patience.

7) Ole Miss was the 2nd most talented team on our schedule. So we got that out of the way. Now we got a tune up and confidence builder in EKU. Then a big home game with UCF. It's a big name, but a team that is a group of 5 and not really a more talented team. Win those 2 going down to Tallahassee for a big win, we can turn this around. Now this year could go bad or really good, but all I want to see is improvement.

 

[CardX]

Kiffin inherited a team that was coming off a post season ban, scholarship reductions, and recruiting restrictions, so what he and Satt are dealing with are pretty similar when it comes to the roster. No excuses coming out of Oxford. They went 6-5 including a bowl win last year, and just pounded our asses into oblivion. I never really thought Kiffin was all that good of a coach, but compared to Satt, he's Nick friggin Saban.

I'm just tired of excuses. Satt doesn't take much accountability.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

Well we disappointed our bride, so what did we see?

1) The wideouts are not talented enough right now. We had 2 NFL wideouts and a great back out of the backfield in Hawkins that are gone, so it's not going to be easy replacing that production. We lost our OC and QB coach. A new OL coach too. So going against SEC athletes in game 1 wasn't optimal. Now all offseason we just assumed Watkins and Ford would step in and replace it easily, just like Puma was going to replace Lamar easily. Now they can't get worse with experience, but it is a huge huge huge step down in talent and that was something we've taken for granted for several years.

2) Malik? I mean he isn't a great decision maker and that's noticeable. He can't really play slow and the defense eats him up when they have time to react. We no longer have a safety valve of a big play guy to help him out. He needs to run no huddle and a fast offense before the defense can react. It reminds me or Mariota to an extent, where Mariota was great in the fast offense in college, but struggled when he played slower. Also, he's taking way too many hits and I really would like to see Conley. We lost Puma to transfer, Webb to transfer, McCaffrey to transfer, Travis to transfer, Purdy decommitted, etc. So Conley seems to be our only future option at the moment and he needs some reps in year 3, especially if Malik's health is a concern.

3) The defense actually wasn't too bad. You can only hold off an offense like that so long before you break. I mean 26-0 at the half and no offensive support. Not to mention Montgomery's ejection did not help. I think the unit overall did pretty good. Now we aren't the 1985 Bears, but just remember this was the same team that was giving up 50-60 points regularly 2-3 years ago. We can make plays. The pass rush was not great, but Ole Miss was rated as one of the better Offensive Lines returning. We won't see to many offenses like that the rest of the year.

4) Rome is not built in a day. Ole Miss is on another talent level than us right now. This game looked like the Miami, Clemson, and Kentucky games the last few years. We just now have freshman and sophomores that are Scott's, because remember, this year's Juniors were from that non-existent 2019 class that Bobby wrecked and the ones older were from the classes Bobby had before. Unless we got lucky and brought in the next Urban Meyer, this rebuild was never going to be easy. This isn't the CUSA, Big East, or AAC where we were SPOILED with easy rebuilds. In the Power 5 it takes time. You have to build depth and redshirt guys. You need 5th year seniors and a strong 2 deep on both sides of the field.

5) Going with #4, I think it was great seeing a lot of the younger guys getting into the game and breaking into the depth chart. The 3rd and 4th year guys we have are transfers and Bobby leftovers, patchwork Scott needed to just have a somewhat competitive roster. I think you see the talent of the younger guys breaking through and it's so good getting them reps. We basically didn't have freshman in 2019 and last year's group didn't get a real year due to COVID, so the young guys are breaking through. We don't have a lot of good experience, but the younger guys look good.

6) With all that said, it's not good for CSS. The SC interview hurt him so bad and took away his loyal southern boy charm, it made him look like a job hopper and a con-man. I really thought it wasn't a good fit because he never coached Power 5 football and never really left App State. From rural small time to urban Power 5. I think the situation we're in now wasn't going to be good for any coach, but a guy like Scott can't recruit at a level to make the rebuild go faster. The cultural difference in having to rebuild a roster and team compared to the last era of trash talking fun just wasn't a good fit. I think Scott's plan for a rebuild can work in a down ACC, but to get to the level we want we're going to have to wait until like 2023-2024. I don't think we'll have the patience.

7) Ole Miss was the 2nd most talented team on our schedule. So we got that out of the way. Now we got a tune up and confidence builder in EKU. Then a big home game with UCF. It's a big name, but a team that is a group of 5 and not really a more talented team. Win those 2 going down to Tallahassee for a big win, we can turn this around. Now this year could go bad or really good, but all I want to see is improvement.

Since you took the time and it's appreciated I'll participate

1) Not too worried about WR - Need to use Ford more from TE spot. Need quicker hits. Maybe a bubble screen. We don't really know what we have because when the game wasn't out of reach our QB wouldn't throw it...

2) Malik bailed too many times in 1st half. As discussed it's unclear if it's his size or confidence or just bottom line ability. Needs to throw it live with results, and stop trying to run through 5 tacklers for yards. Appreciate the heart, but he should have been pulled for at least one series in the 2nd Q

3) Defense looked ok vs the run making multiple plays @ LOS. Not much pressure up front. Awful 3 man rush game plan. Secondary has struggled for years, but maybe won't see that type of WR talent too many more times. Pretty uninspiring back there. Need playmakers.

4). It's year 3. Not sure the guy gets a 4th

5) Sure, good to see guys work there way into a lineup

6) His overall grade last night would be an F, I'll go ahead and get a thread for that if somebody hasn't already

7) We shall see

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Kiffin inherited a team that was coming off a post season ban, scholarship reductions, and recruiting restrictions, so what he and Satt are dealing with are pretty similar when it comes to the roster. No excuses coming out of Oxford. They went 6-5 including a bowl win last year, and just pounded our asses into oblivion. I never really thought Kiffin was all that good of a coach, but compared to Satt, he's Nick friggin Saban.

I'm just tired of excuses. Satt doesn't take much accountability.

Well Kiffin inherited a competitive 4-8 team from the SEC West and Satt inherited a team that went 2-10 and possibly had the worst defense in Power 5 history. Lane Kiffin had a lot more talent to work with and it's much easier to bring in talent in Oxford. They have the best juco territory around and are near Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, etc. down in the deep south. Look at the NFL talent they lost just last year.

Now not saying if Satt is the guy or not, because I wasn't a guy that wanted him, I wanted to go all in on Luke Fickell or someone like that, heck Neal Brown was a better option but our feeling were hurt because he coached in Lexghanistan. But, this was going to be hard. But this roster situation wasn't ideal. There were some solid players in the junior/senior classes that Bobby left, but the freshman and sophomore classes that are now the junior and seniors were pretty bare.

We just have this view that everything is like the Big East and CUSA days where it's just easy to do, but it's not. We are in an awful place to recruit and you can't just go up that quickly in the situation we were in after 2018. We have this expectation that we can just line up against a team like Ole Miss and it should be easy in year 3, it's not and it takes time.

Charlie built up the talent, but be clear that Charlie got to infuse young talent against a conference where he never once beat a ranked team during the regular season. 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 were years he could load up on talent and built that base, but we weren't ACC. So by the 2014 season, we had all of Charlie's young talent that were upperclassmen and we could compete right away. If Charlie inherited the Petrino 2-10 mess and had to rebuild in the Power 5, yeah we'd have good talent coming in, but it wouldn't look as pretty as it did.

Now is Scott the guy? I don't know, but I'm not going to say it's time for him to go because he lost to a superior team. They have more talent and they were a 10 point favorite. Yeah we did not look sharp and that's concerning, but we were -10 dogs and all the evidence was there that they were better. I was expecting a beat down, but I drank the kool aid and didn't want to be a negative Nancy.

 

[glassmanJ]

i'm still holding out hope for this to work, but i did suggest years ago kiffin was our best coaching hire option and people thought i was nuts. he connects with his players and they run thru walls for him.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

The biggest thing with Satt leaving is this, how much longer do we want to rebuild?

If we dump Satt for another coordinator or mid major coach, who is to say it’ll work? Because right now we don’t have a great roster of talent, but the young guys look like they’re bringing us up a notch.

If we dump Satt, then have a lot of transfers and then bring in a whole new staff with a new system, then we better be sure it’s gonna work. Because if not, we become a place of constant turnover where a new coach can’t get started because he has to rebuild from the last guy.

I don’t want us becoming like Tennessee. If we have a home run hire, go make the hire, but if not then we have to be patient. If we go 3-9 or 4-8, sure we have to make a move, but if we’re around 6-6 with all this young talent then we need to just be patient. We have to get out roster built up and balanced and I do think Scott can to that. Now can he take us to another level? Remains to be seen.

 

[KozmasAgain]

Let’s see how long Kirin is at Ole Miss he changes teams more than most people change underwear.

 

[KozmasAgain]

One thing I noticed about Ole Miss is they had a lot of transfers from big time programs. They went for the quick rebuild like Miami did last year we might want to try that more. I know we have a few transfers but not as many and not from big time programs.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood]

In most instances, and there could be outliers... you either know you got a good hire or you know you didn't pretty early on in the process.

Or sometimes you think you did, but then gradually come to see you didn't. I think this is where we are right now. When you combine the results and snapshot in time of where the program is right now with his pursuit of other work, the guy really isn't gonna get a lotta love in a space like here. Even if he does sort of turn it around he's clearly not a long hauler anyway.

Anybody wanna take a guess at attendance for the EKU game?

 

[Mayoman]

One thing I noticed about Ole Miss is they had a lot of transfers from big time programs. They went for the quick rebuild like Miami did last year we might want to try that more. I know we have a few transfers but not as many and not from big time programs.

It helps if you have staff with big time coaching contacts to get those players to transfer from big time schools. Did Bicknell bring anybody from Auburn or the Sec with him? No.

Ponce's QB coach replacement was from within staff right?

Does it really affect the offense when the HC doubles as the OC play caller too?
I know BP did it....does that make it right or wrong for the Cards?

Miss scored 48 points on Bama last year, 41 on UK and 48 on LSU...a noted defensive team. Bama scored 63 on UK. What happened last year...does it really matter this year?

The cake needs to bake more this year to get a really true reading about this staff and this Cardinal team.

UCF and FSU will be telling games for us fans this year. Improvement and wins would be nice. But will it happen? IDK.

I do know that you have to have talent and experience to win in a P5 conference and the Cards don't have enough right now and what is there is scarred by BP in the Jr and Sr classes. The RFR, SO and true FR have talent and no or little experience. They are Satt's guys. That is the hand we are dealt. Only time and playing the schedule will fix that.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I still think a 6-6 year with a bowl win would make us feel good and like there's progress. Because we're going to bring back quite a bit next year, so the more experience the better.

Not all rebuilds are the same. For example, Boston College. They actually were a very above average ACC team, their previous coach was bowl eligible 6 of 7 seasons. They had a solid base of talent and weren't awful, so their new coach Jeff Haley walked into a decent program with good line play and decent depth. He didn't have to start from behind, he had above average and can work on moving them beyond.

Scott, for example, took over a 2-10 team that had a lot of transfers, no offensive line depth, no defensive talent, and was the worst defense in Power 5 history. He didn't even get hired in time to salvage a recruiting class and basically came in with 0 freshman in 2019. He maximized that group to a 7-5 season and a bowl win with a lot of 1 possession games won. We took a step back last year and now this year we're just not in the shape to compete.

Now here is where we need to look at Scott's progress.
At this point, it appears we still aren't competitive with Miami & Ole Miss type teams with great talent. When there's a talent gap, we just aren't there yet.

So? We need to see how we compete with UCF, FSU, Wake Forrest, Boston College, Virginia & NC State type teams. We need to be on the level. If Scott isn't competing with those teams, then it's a different case. That's where he needs to be judged.

We need to dominate Duke and Syracuse. If we're dominating teams we're supposed to, then it shows we're ahead. But if they're close with us, that's a worry too.

EKU, Duke, and Cuse should be 3 wins. Clemson is a loss
UCF, FSU, WF, BC, UK, UVA, and NC State, we need to be at least 3-4 in these games and competitive in the losses. That gets you to a bowl and a good start on the next few years.

 

[billoliver40]

Transfer portal is a new tool the way it can be used. UK picked up 4 staers...
Levis, Robinson, Rosenthal, Jones....and all worked well game one.
Some not as much so far.
As far as keeping an eye out for coaches, sky is the limit.
Orgeron is getting rumblings at LSU.
Friese may be ready to step up somewhere else next year.
Frost is likely gone at Nebraska...and it seldom works when a hero comes home.
Yeah, Kiffen likely leaves this season or next.
Any of those guys can recruit at P5 level. Orgeron might get you on probation but he would be the best loved guy in town from day one and get kids everywhere.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

And looking at it like this, we're pretty young and putting in a lot more young talent this year. If we're a 6-6 team and win some crappy bowl and go 7-6, it's still momentum. We'll bring a lot of returning young guys into 2022 and another recruiting class of Scott's guys.

And we'll lose Ole Miss on the schedule and a much easier USF. Pitt at home is our crossover game. So we really could be setting up some good momentum for that year and then by 2023 we'll have a full roster of Scott's guys. I know we aren't magically on the level of a team like Ole Miss and back to the 2013 Sugar Bowl level of talent, but I think patience can work.

It's looking at the long term. Do you see it getting better? Because starting over with an unknown guy and starting over can be even riskier. I think we can at least be 6-6 to 7-5 the next 3 years. And having a roster built up and having sustained bowl success is important. Then if we just don't see him taking the next step, we re-evaluate. But now is not the time to blow it up again and start over.

 

[Williedynamite]

I understand what everybody is saying about giving CSS more time for his players to get here etc. I truly get it. BUT it’s the other things that he can control that has me worried.

It took the staff an entire half of football to make adjustments to what Ole Miss was doing on offense and defense? That’s completely unacceptable.

It’s just one game, but we still have bland and predictable offensive play calling. Where’s all the innovation and imaginative play calling they said we would see?

He’s been here 3 years. That’s more than enough time to have your players in the system. He’s had ample time to recruit over Malik. But he’s wiffed on recruiting our next QB. Statistically speaking he’s had some of the best recruiting classes in Louisville Football history, but they haven’t panned out on the field so far.

I think the worst thing so far about CSS tenure is that the team hasn’t improved. What we saw Monday is the same way the team ended last season. Same mistakes, same lack of game planning etc.

I was a big Satterfield guy. He’s the coach I wanted after Bobby was fired. But he’s not the guy. I first got concerned when he lost a ton of coaches after his first year. Yeah they were mostly lower level guys, but it was enough that I took notice. I know most of them took “job promotions” at App State, but it was still a red flag. Then when he tried to bail last year to USCjr that’s what did it for me, and apparently for other coaches as well. We saw more coaches leave after that.

I want him to succeed, but I’m not sure he can. He’s really going to have to re-examine his coaching philosophy. Can the smaller and faster type of players work in the ACC. So far it’s not. Can we continue with undersized DBs and Corners.. it doesn’t look that way. Undersized D-linemen? Not working so far. He’s going to have to work on his game planning and speed of adjustments. He’s going to have to get more aggressive in his play calling. He has time. But he’s burned so many bridges last year I’m not sure he can comeback from that. Time will tell.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Statistically speaking he’s had some of the best recruiting classes in Louisville Football history, but they haven’t panned out on the field so far.

Well look at it like this.

The 2019 class was the worst in our history by far and not even really a class. He inherited that mess.
The 2020 class was just large and he was a cycle behind coming in, but they're just sophomores
The 2021 class just played their first game as freshman, and that's the highly ranked class.

So that's really not true as far as his recruits not panning out as they're mainly sophomores and freshman.

 

[PHCARD]

CSS wasn’t my pick but I accepted the pick. I was a Luke Fickell fan pick for UofL after watching some UC football. But what do I know? I’m just a fan wanting to move on from ugly. And hometown was a huge no for me.
Last night was a out of town event, late cookout and with some KY & UofL friends. Didn’t see but minutes here and there of the first half and enough to know I was seeing repeats of ‘20.

Second half was such a mixed bag from O & D, and more of the same from last year.

Ugly will not defeat me inside or outside when it comes to UofL. 😉

 

[billoliver40]

Truth is it was a bad game. They happen.
Everybody has em. Hurts when its televised...but that's life.

See where you are in five, six games.
That'll tell your direction better.