Crunch Time has arrived for the Cards in Men's Basketball. There are now just 46 days until the end of the 2015-2016 regular season.
The Cards are 14-3 at this point and have played Sagarin's 206th ranked schedule. They have 14 more games to complete their regular season, 7 at home, 7 away.
They are ranked #7 by Sagarin, #16 by the AP, and #19 by the USA Today. Louisville is ranked #5 by KenPom.
Men's BB seems to experience more parity this season than in a very long time. But also the long-term trend line seems toward more, not less, parity. It seems just about any team in the Top 50 can beat almost anyone else in the Top 50, CONVINCINGLY, on a given night.
Louisville has seemed a bit of an anomaly. While the Cards are certainly quite beatable, their opponent will likely not know that they've actually won the game against them until the clock has expired.
Unlike the Football Cards this last season, these guys seem to always be in the game. Their losses have all been on the road, and two of those three to pretty good teams. And not by much.
Basketball is much more of an individual sport than FB. You can ride one player's lights-out performance to the heights, or plummet from down games by a couple guys.
This Louisville team is quite interesting. They are acting like a team. They are smart. They seem to be helping one another. They are beginning to play pretty good defense, despite the use of the new rules. And other than some offensive shrinkage in the last couple games, the Cards seem both balanced and effective on Offense. Even their FT shooting has gotten pretty reasonable.
It is going to be interesting as they transition to face the most challenging part of their schedule. I think D will be critically important. And I think Tobacco Road will make its use more difficult than the Cards may prefer.
This is the broadest, deepest set of players the Cards have had in a while. Yet it seems Nanu and at least one of Lee or Lewis must be on the floor for 90% of the game for the Cards to be highly effective.
Q and Mitchell show great flashes and are getting much more consistent. Ray still makes lots of errors. Anas can put together some good stretches. Adel is not back yet. And "Mango" is still at least four-five weeks away.
This team should have beaten the Spartans (Izzo and the Refs), should have beaten the Wildcats (Rupp, the Refs and a hot shooter), but never deserved to beat a well-coached, max performing Clemson Tigers team. Three-Point D in the switch hurt the Cards badly in two of those games.
Fourteen Games Remaining until the ACC Tourney.
The First Three - All Quite Winnable!
H Florida State --- Cards predict to be an 11 point winner. But Seminoles are playing well. And they have played a very good schedule.
@ Georgia Tech --- Cards predict to win by 6 points. Yellowjackets are in a dip now. But they too have played a demanding schedule.
@ Virginia Tech --- Cards should win by 11 @ Blacksburg. Hokies not playing all that well and have played a pretty weak schedule.
I think the Cards will be either 17-3 or 16-4 at this point. Either Road Game can be a loss.
The Next Five - The Going Gets Very Tough!
H Virginia --- White Out! 1PM Saturday Game. Remember what happened last season! Cards predict to win by 5 or 6, but I'm not buying it. Whoever hits FT's in the clutch will win. Gonna have to be hitting on all cylinders.
H North Carolina --- Just 54 hours after the Virginia game! It doesn't get much tougher than having to play the Tarheels and the Cavaliers within a 2 and a half-day span, in the regular season. Cards predict to win this game, but I seriously doubt they can beat UVA and UNC back-to-back.
H Boston College --- Finally a break, and possibly a huge letdown. Cards aren't going to beat BC by the 25 point difference prediction. Cards will be tired and will need rest. Lots of lineup will play. Cards will win, though. Eagles are consistently bad.
@ Duke --- We play these guys the same ridiculous 54-55 hour interval after BC. But @ Dook. Dookies by 2. But it won't be that close. The K man will have them back on track.
@ Notre Dame --- OMG. Can I say that when I discuss the Irish? Throw out the difference calculator. This is all going to be about who's the man! At crunch time. Loud. Hot. Irish have played a good schedule and are getting better.
Take a long deep breath! Cards could win 3 of these 5 , or --- as few as 1 of them. I think they only have one meltdown in this group. I see 2 or 3 wins in this "G5".
Cards are now anywhere from 20-5 to 18-7 at this point. We will know what they're made of. As many as 15 games can lie in front of them at this juncture. I think we can go as far as LLN can take us.
The Final Six - Setting Up for the ACC Tourney!
Well, to repeat, we will all now know just how good our guys can be. The SOS will have come down to earth.
H Syracuse --- Boeheim is back. Penalty Phase is over. Cuse is getting better. Could it be last time to see Pitino/Boeheim in Louisville? Tough game. Cards win. Prediction by 11, but will be closer. OrangeM-E-N bring out the best.
H Duke --- Coach K comes to the Ville again. Always a very difficult opponent. He will have them playing their best basketball. But this will be a huge game for Lee and Lewis. This and GT are their last Yum Games. Cards win a close one. Closer than the 6 pt difference.
Now 3 of the final 4 ON THE ROAD!
@ Pittsburgh --- I am too lazy to look up how Cards have fared at Peterson. But, I think Cards win. Not sure it will be a blowout. Doubt it. Cards by 4 to 6 points. Nanu. Every game is War now. Lee will score a lot at the rim.
@ Miami --- This is a heckuva ball team. They will beat the Cards. Loss of concentration. The cylinders ain't poppin'.
H Georgia Tech --- One more time! Last Yum Center game for Lee and Lewis. Very exciting. Cards in a rout.
@ Virginia --- This one all depends on what the Cavaliers have become. hey will have played one of the very top schedules in the country. I say they win the game in Charlottesville. But it's close.
So ----- in these last six games, I see the Cards going at best 5-1, but maybe as badly as 2-4. I'm staying safe at 3-3. I don't think Cards are beating Virginia or Miami in this stretch.
Cards are now anywhere from 23-8 to 20-11.
If they're anywhere near 23-8, that's going to be pretty incredible. They'll be in the Top 15 in this parity-filled season. They could make a run. We'll see.
Go Cards!
The Cards are 14-3 at this point and have played Sagarin's 206th ranked schedule. They have 14 more games to complete their regular season, 7 at home, 7 away.
They are ranked #7 by Sagarin, #16 by the AP, and #19 by the USA Today. Louisville is ranked #5 by KenPom.
Men's BB seems to experience more parity this season than in a very long time. But also the long-term trend line seems toward more, not less, parity. It seems just about any team in the Top 50 can beat almost anyone else in the Top 50, CONVINCINGLY, on a given night.
Louisville has seemed a bit of an anomaly. While the Cards are certainly quite beatable, their opponent will likely not know that they've actually won the game against them until the clock has expired.
Unlike the Football Cards this last season, these guys seem to always be in the game. Their losses have all been on the road, and two of those three to pretty good teams. And not by much.
Basketball is much more of an individual sport than FB. You can ride one player's lights-out performance to the heights, or plummet from down games by a couple guys.
This Louisville team is quite interesting. They are acting like a team. They are smart. They seem to be helping one another. They are beginning to play pretty good defense, despite the use of the new rules. And other than some offensive shrinkage in the last couple games, the Cards seem both balanced and effective on Offense. Even their FT shooting has gotten pretty reasonable.
It is going to be interesting as they transition to face the most challenging part of their schedule. I think D will be critically important. And I think Tobacco Road will make its use more difficult than the Cards may prefer.
This is the broadest, deepest set of players the Cards have had in a while. Yet it seems Nanu and at least one of Lee or Lewis must be on the floor for 90% of the game for the Cards to be highly effective.
Q and Mitchell show great flashes and are getting much more consistent. Ray still makes lots of errors. Anas can put together some good stretches. Adel is not back yet. And "Mango" is still at least four-five weeks away.
This team should have beaten the Spartans (Izzo and the Refs), should have beaten the Wildcats (Rupp, the Refs and a hot shooter), but never deserved to beat a well-coached, max performing Clemson Tigers team. Three-Point D in the switch hurt the Cards badly in two of those games.
Fourteen Games Remaining until the ACC Tourney.
The First Three - All Quite Winnable!
H Florida State --- Cards predict to be an 11 point winner. But Seminoles are playing well. And they have played a very good schedule.
@ Georgia Tech --- Cards predict to win by 6 points. Yellowjackets are in a dip now. But they too have played a demanding schedule.
@ Virginia Tech --- Cards should win by 11 @ Blacksburg. Hokies not playing all that well and have played a pretty weak schedule.
I think the Cards will be either 17-3 or 16-4 at this point. Either Road Game can be a loss.
The Next Five - The Going Gets Very Tough!
H Virginia --- White Out! 1PM Saturday Game. Remember what happened last season! Cards predict to win by 5 or 6, but I'm not buying it. Whoever hits FT's in the clutch will win. Gonna have to be hitting on all cylinders.
H North Carolina --- Just 54 hours after the Virginia game! It doesn't get much tougher than having to play the Tarheels and the Cavaliers within a 2 and a half-day span, in the regular season. Cards predict to win this game, but I seriously doubt they can beat UVA and UNC back-to-back.
H Boston College --- Finally a break, and possibly a huge letdown. Cards aren't going to beat BC by the 25 point difference prediction. Cards will be tired and will need rest. Lots of lineup will play. Cards will win, though. Eagles are consistently bad.
@ Duke --- We play these guys the same ridiculous 54-55 hour interval after BC. But @ Dook. Dookies by 2. But it won't be that close. The K man will have them back on track.
@ Notre Dame --- OMG. Can I say that when I discuss the Irish? Throw out the difference calculator. This is all going to be about who's the man! At crunch time. Loud. Hot. Irish have played a good schedule and are getting better.
Take a long deep breath! Cards could win 3 of these 5 , or --- as few as 1 of them. I think they only have one meltdown in this group. I see 2 or 3 wins in this "G5".
Cards are now anywhere from 20-5 to 18-7 at this point. We will know what they're made of. As many as 15 games can lie in front of them at this juncture. I think we can go as far as LLN can take us.
The Final Six - Setting Up for the ACC Tourney!
Well, to repeat, we will all now know just how good our guys can be. The SOS will have come down to earth.
H Syracuse --- Boeheim is back. Penalty Phase is over. Cuse is getting better. Could it be last time to see Pitino/Boeheim in Louisville? Tough game. Cards win. Prediction by 11, but will be closer. OrangeM-E-N bring out the best.
H Duke --- Coach K comes to the Ville again. Always a very difficult opponent. He will have them playing their best basketball. But this will be a huge game for Lee and Lewis. This and GT are their last Yum Games. Cards win a close one. Closer than the 6 pt difference.
Now 3 of the final 4 ON THE ROAD!
@ Pittsburgh --- I am too lazy to look up how Cards have fared at Peterson. But, I think Cards win. Not sure it will be a blowout. Doubt it. Cards by 4 to 6 points. Nanu. Every game is War now. Lee will score a lot at the rim.
@ Miami --- This is a heckuva ball team. They will beat the Cards. Loss of concentration. The cylinders ain't poppin'.
H Georgia Tech --- One more time! Last Yum Center game for Lee and Lewis. Very exciting. Cards in a rout.
@ Virginia --- This one all depends on what the Cavaliers have become. hey will have played one of the very top schedules in the country. I say they win the game in Charlottesville. But it's close.
So ----- in these last six games, I see the Cards going at best 5-1, but maybe as badly as 2-4. I'm staying safe at 3-3. I don't think Cards are beating Virginia or Miami in this stretch.
Cards are now anywhere from 23-8 to 20-11.
If they're anywhere near 23-8, that's going to be pretty incredible. They'll be in the Top 15 in this parity-filled season. They could make a run. We'll see.
Go Cards!
