6 years....1 Championship, 4 Final Fours. Not sure if there's anyone other than coach K that's had a better 6-year run.
Let's talk about December 26th at Rupp Arena
- Thread starter Rhavicc
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Senore, I'm with you. In one sense it sounds delusional to complain about 4 FFs, a national runner up and a title in 6 years, and maybe it is. But this is lightning in a bottle in terms of the talent he is bringing in here. No team will ever get this much of an advantage again in my lifetime. Wooden had a similar talent gap and won the damn title every year.
Championships are hard. And I mean that sincerely. In a one-and-done game format, so many things can go into the final result, the biggest one being shooting. You can just never tell when guys are going to have an off night, or when the other team is going to be unusually hot. Then you have the case of guys coming off the bench to have the night of their lives, like little known Spike Albrecht almost single handedly derailing our NC with 17 points in 11 minutes of the first half. People will always focus on the final couple of minutes or the final possession as what "cost them the game". But in actuality, it's the totality of the entire game that put them in position to win or lose the game in those final possessions.
Wooden also won his first 2 titles with underszed, underrated teams of munchkins, lol, who fast breaked and pressed and simply wore out the legs of opponents. They were also awesome shot makers.
I like your term "shot makers." Reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where Kramer called Jerry a "joke maker."
Just so we don't lose track of the math... LPT was even money to win the NCAA last year going in. Those are Vegas odds set by professionals. That means if the tourney was played twice, LPT should win one of them.
Now consider that last year's LPT team was a prohibitive favorite not unlike their 2010 and 2012 teams were. That means they had close to a 50-50 chance of winning going into the tournament in three different years. And their 2011 and 2014 teams also had quantifiable shots at the championship going into each one. You even have to consider their NIT team in the analysis because that team was rated number 1 in many preseason polls.
To have had one successful championship run with that number of chances and probabilities is an indication that LPT has underperformed STATISTICALLY. IMO, there should be at least be one more championship in those six years to demonstrate a simple probabilistic set of outcomes.
My explanation is the star player factor... LPT has had one true and reliable superstar player in those six years, and that was Davis. And not surprisingly, that was the year they won it all. Without an Anthony Davis, I think Pitino Lite's flaws will always bubble to the surface at some point during the season.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Now consider that last year's LPT team was a prohibitive favorite not unlike their 2010 and 2012 teams were. That means they had close to a 50-50 chance of winning going into the tournament in three different years. And their 2011 and 2014 teams also had quantifiable shots at the championship going into each one. You even have to consider their NIT team in the analysis because that team was rated number 1 in many preseason polls.
To have had one successful championship run with that number of chances and probabilities is an indication that LPT has underperformed STATISTICALLY. IMO, there should be at least be one more championship in those six years to demonstrate a simple probabilistic set of outcomes.
My explanation is the star player factor... LPT has had one true and reliable superstar player in those six years, and that was Davis. And not surprisingly, that was the year they won it all. Without an Anthony Davis, I think Pitino Lite's flaws will always bubble to the surface at some point during the season.
"Elite program", my a$$...
These are good points Steelers. It's easy to focus on final possessions and assign blame there, but its a 40 minute game. Every coach has choked down the stretch in games (CRP included, probably should have won 2-3 more titles at UK,) but the spotlight is just brightest in the tourney, especially the Final Four. Of course you have to get there first to have the chance to choke it away...I guess that's better than the alternative.
Zipp, let's at least use appropriate terms. Odds going into 2010 tourney;
Kansas 3-1
Kentucky 4-1
Syracuse 6-1
Duke 8-1
West Virginia 10-1
I'd hardly call any of those teams a "prohibitive favorite." 2015, yes, UK should win that title 50% of the time.
2012 odds are below, but after the K Marshall injury I would have thought it a monumental choke job had UK not won;
Kentucky Wildcats 5 to 2
North Carolina Tar Heels 6 to 1
Ohio State Buckeyes 6 to 1
Kansas 3-1
Kentucky 4-1
Syracuse 6-1
Duke 8-1
West Virginia 10-1
I'd hardly call any of those teams a "prohibitive favorite." 2015, yes, UK should win that title 50% of the time.
2012 odds are below, but after the K Marshall injury I would have thought it a monumental choke job had UK not won;
Kentucky Wildcats 5 to 2
North Carolina Tar Heels 6 to 1
Ohio State Buckeyes 6 to 1
Guard the inbounds vs Duke, not lose to a 4th seeded Arizona team that didn't make a single FG in overtime, beat #2 seeded UNC in the regional finals....those were all gut wrenchers.
My semantics were probably wrong - UK "could" have won 2-3 more titles under CRP. I guess the word "should" might never be used when talking about NCAA basketball championships, as Steelers points out above. And I am one of those UK fans who still holds CRP in a very high place. Brought us back from the brink and gave us a hell of an 8 year ride, and set up a team for Tubby to win with when he left.
If you're gonna trot all the data, then trot out all of it. I wanna know the odds EACH year LPT has entered the tourney...
I'm not gonna get drawn into an "LPT" type debate with you Zipp, I don't have the time or energy for that
I was using your post as a reference. You said that, according to Vegas experts, UK should have won the 2015 title 50% of the time. No argument from me there. Since the "Vegas Experts" odds was the data point you chose to use, I can assume that we be consistent and stick with those.
Your follow up was that the 2010 and 2012 teams were also prohibitive favorites and both had close to a 50/50 shot to win the tourney as well. That's what my issue was. Personally I think that given the teams UK has had with Cal, they should probably have 2 titles right now. Your data points just don't bear that out. You live in horse country, you know as well as I do that a 4-1 horse and a 5-2 horse are a loooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnggggg way from being even money.
I was using your post as a reference. You said that, according to Vegas experts, UK should have won the 2015 title 50% of the time. No argument from me there. Since the "Vegas Experts" odds was the data point you chose to use, I can assume that we be consistent and stick with those.
Your follow up was that the 2010 and 2012 teams were also prohibitive favorites and both had close to a 50/50 shot to win the tourney as well. That's what my issue was. Personally I think that given the teams UK has had with Cal, they should probably have 2 titles right now. Your data points just don't bear that out. You live in horse country, you know as well as I do that a 4-1 horse and a 5-2 horse are a loooooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnggggg way from being even money.
Then, our conclusions are the same. So, why are you debating?
"Elite program", my a$$...
Cool, John, of course. I had forgotten about that Elite 8 game with Duke.
One could as easily ask what percentage of UK fans know the names of your players this season. Then one, mutatis mutandii, could ask why bother with speculating like a cheerleader?
Of course you didn't, but I threw it in there as an example. Nice chatting back and forth with you sir.
So, now the bar is Top 25? Can "making the tournament" be far off?
(Well, there was 2013...)
"Elite program", my a$$...
He's never lost to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT, no. But that coaching genius cal has....next question.
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Not with a #1 recruiting class and a few NBA first rounders on his team like Calipari....
Since LPT? No.
We don't consider ourselves a basketball school either. Or one that annually plays an in-state Super Bowl.
"Elite program", my a$$...
Does not make much sense, considering Louisville according to Coach Pitino has always had a "Shaq Stone", "the next Jamal Mashburn", "X player is the best player I've ever coached", to this season's "we have 7-8 NBA guys on our team".
No reason there for the Cards and Rick to go to multiple NIT's.
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