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If Payne Is Here Next Season

we need point guards with good assist/turnover ratios and a big man who can board more than a new head coach
El is a great scorer but just not a point guard. our struggles are with rebounding and turnovers.
 
The reality is he’s a 57 yo first time head coach. There’s a reason we don’t see that very often. It’s difficult to cut your teeth at that age.

Also, he was 3 years removed from the college game when hired and things are very different in the 2 areas where he excelled as an assistant in college. Recruiting (now it’s all NIL/Portal) and Big Men Development (game has morphed into stretch players). He’s unfamiliar with both areas as it currently requires.

So, there’s no aspect of coaching college in 2023 that aligns with his strengths from the past. He’s not the right choice whether the decision is made this year or next.
 
People always want to focus on the losing 13 of the last 15. There were a lot of reasons for that. Coaching turnover was one particular reason for that, Mack got the shaft from Bendapuddy on the Dino situation and he checked out, i really dont blame him. Then Pegues took over and he wasn't close to a Chris Mack type coach. Also you forget we started the year at 9-3 and won the Bahamas tournament. Even Pegues was not getting blown out. Most of those losses were by less than 10 points.

KP could have held onto some of those kids he sent packing and they could be making a difference for us this year. Let's face it, KP has done absolutely nothing good since he's been here..

He gotta go !!
Not to derail the thread, but I thought those off-the-court factors didn’t wash with Petrino?
 
You're going to have to enlighten me..
BTW I don't disagree with your take on Mack. But there were reportedly external factors at work with Petrino like the death of his father in 2018. Petrino haters have no time for those arguments.

My own analysis begins and ends with Tyra, the "coach killer". I know Petrino's answer, let's ask Mack and Satterfield how much Tyra did for their careers. We're lucky Jeff Walz got an agent and slogged through Tyra's four years. And I'm pretty sure where other U of L coaches stand, for sure those in the past.

Mack was a good coach before he arrived, and we killed his coaching career for the most part. Satterfield barely got out alive. Jeff Brohm apparently was smart enough not to try while Tyra was still here...
 
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Satterfield was actually a good hire, he did exactly what was needed. He made the program better. I do think there was a disconnect with the Administration. It killed Mack and almost got Satterfield.

Like it or not Louisville football and basketball were toxic. Football figured a way out mainly because they weren’t under the NCAA cloud. Basketball continues to be toxic. The fans and the program are not aligned. There were/is a handful of guys that had enough clout that would have been given whatever time to fix this situation. None of them were interested. Just because a coach is successful at X school doesn’t mean they would have fixed this mess.
 
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None of them were interested. Just because a coach is successful at X school doesn’t mean they would have fixed this mess
They would have a better chance at fixing it than a 57 year old lifetime assistant..
 
This kind of mess is never 1 thing. There are a lot of events that occurred to get Louisville in its current state. The NCAA is one factor, it is not the sole factor.

It isn’t an excuse because it did impact the program. To deny that is as silly as saying the whole reason we are here is because of the NCAA. Multiple things happened to get us to this point.
 
I heard Deener this morning recapping the recruit rankings for the Wake players in Saturday's game. Most of our current guys were rated higher than their best player(s).

Sure, you want a mix of players who fit certain positions and roles in your system. I understand that. But a team of better players consistently trailing teams with lesser talent by wide point margins ain't a talent issue. I'm sorry if that's what you wanna believe while Payne is struggling...
 
High school rankings are projections, it can go either way. To me it is a lazy argument. Louisville has had its share of players that were under rated and others that were over rated.

We have 2-3 years of actual performance at this level. Also we have actual game data under 2 different coaches. I think that is a better indicator of a players actual talent than a high school ranking.

Were BJ King or Sam Williamson really 5 stars? Or were they just average college players? We know the answer they were average players. Hatfield was a 5 star. He hasn’t been a 5 star at either UT or so far at Louisville. Is that coaching or did they misevaluated him? Russ Smith was a 2 star that happened to be freak athlete that turned himself into a great player.

It is a talent and coaching issue. You can put your blame percentages where you want but it isn’t 100 percent coaching or players.
 
High school rankings are projections, it can go either way. To me it is a lazy argument. Louisville has had its share of players that were under rated and others that were over rated.

We have 2-3 years of actual performance at this level. Also we have actual game data under 2 different coaches. I think that is a better indicator of a players actual talent than a high school ranking.

Were BJ King or Sam Williamson really 5 stars? Or were they just average college players? We know the answer they were average players. Hatfield was a 5 star. He hasn’t been a 5 star at either UT or so far at Louisville. Is that coaching or did they misevaluated him? Russ Smith was a 2 star that happened to be freak athlete that turned himself into a great player.

It is a talent and coaching issue. You can put your blame percentages where you want but it isn’t 100 percent coaching or players.
This is a classic case of population statistics. You're selecting data points that don't exactly match the population MEAN or AVERAGE from which you're sampling them.

Rating players is done scientifically by the evaluators, but it's not an exact measurement. That imprecision doesn't invalidate the methodology as you're trying to do.

In my example, there are entire rosters of players on two different teams. And the range of player ratings for one team hardly overlaps the other. That is, the worst player on one team is rated better than the best player on the other team.

That's two distinctly different populations of players in terms of talent. And applying the ratings tool that way is far better than just comparing two players.

Another way of expressing this is that sample size matters. I'm talking about TEAMS, and you countered with PLAYERS. Two different bases to make a comparison, and with different results...
 
We all recognize the “outliers” like Russdiculous, or on the opposite end of the spectrum there are kids like Hatfield who fail to meet HS projections.There are also kids like Samuel Williamson that has the 5 Star athleticism, but simply failed to develop his mid range shot. Great elevation and form, but for whatever reason he never could score consistently.

Griffith spent the summer between his Junior season following a very poor performance against Arkansas in the NCAA, and his Senior year in Crawford Gym perfecting his jump shot. The results were remarkable and it resulted in a National Championship and a high NBA draft position.

No one on the planet had more pure athletic ability on the basketball court than Darrell, but without working to improve his shooting ……. he would have left UL looking more like Williamson or so many others.
 
I may be one of a very small minority, but I think adding one veteran PG and one veteran SG out of the portal, and convincing BHH, Withers, Lands, Traynor, James, Basili, Ree, Miller, and Wheeler to return would give us a team that could post at least a .500 season next year.

🥳🥳🥳🥳

I guess.
 
I think the bickering by fans over KP's recruiting has merit on both sides, but most of these fans don't consider that both opinions can be correct.

First and foremost, the belief that UofL was going to be hit hard with sanctions was real to any recruit or transfer. Louisville was not like Kansas or Arizona or LSU because UofL was a repeat offender. This program was much farther down the line for serious sanctions than the other schools.

The stripper scandal was much more than a NCAA violation, it was seen as reprehensible and this alone would have many parents of HS players from seriously considering Louisville. The FBI sting then cemented UofL as an out of control program that despite the firings of Pitino and Jurich, led most HS kids to look elsewhere.

The hiring of KP didn't help with this perception as the program seemingly was admitting it was going to be awhile before Louisville could return to its prominent status. No big name or up and coming coach would take the job had to mean tough times ahead for UofL basketball.

So HS players were pretty much out of the equation. The two that did sign were recruited by Chris Mack and probably had more information about the programs potential status to escape serious violations, unlike other recruits.

It was the grad transfer market where KP was really behind the 8 ball. These players for the most part, had just one season left of college hoops, and who could really blame them for not choosing Louisville? Unlike Kansas, who just won the NCAA title, Louisville was in a huge mess and even if the death penalty wasn't likely, a multiple year ban from post season was very possible.

So any transfer had to consider that plus the likelihood that Louisville, with a first time head coach wasn't going to be good enough to make the postseason even if there wasn't a ban. It was just a perfect storm that was going to pound the program, especially in year one of the new regime. Now I do agree KP probably was a bit naive and figured he could land some transfers and it was too late when he realized he wasn't going to get anybody. I don't know if it's true he passed on some transfers thinking he was going to get a better one, but it wouldn't surprise me.

BHH wasn't a grad transfer and why he stuck with KP is a question I can only guess at. Knowing he had 3 more seasons could be it or he may have had a relationship with KP prior?

The bottom line for me is the lack of transfers and recruits were due to the program being in limbo on everything. Coming off a bad losing season with a rookie head coach, trying to navigate serious NCAA violations for a program being held with disdain across the country just wasn't going to yield positive results. So most everyone said no thanks to Louisville.

And looking at the 2 and 13 record seems to validate their concerns.

This first season KP gets a pass regardless if he's the man for the job or not. No one expected a winning season but no one expected being the worst team in power conference basketball either. Year two, starting with recruiting will tell the tale if KP survives.

We're at the point now that many fans hope the team plays competitive ball down the stretch and shows improvement and potential but many fans are leary of this because it may give KP more time to prove he can do the job which is something they don't believe is possible.

For me, I want to win but I'm not yet sold KP will.
Really good post! How on earth did I miss it earlier?

Peace
 
I think the bickering by fans over KP's recruiting has merit on both sides, but most of these fans don't consider that both opinions can be correct.

First and foremost, the belief that UofL was going to be hit hard with sanctions was real to any recruit or transfer. Louisville was not like Kansas or Arizona or LSU because UofL was a repeat offender. This program was much farther down the line for serious sanctions than the other schools.

The stripper scandal was much more than a NCAA violation, it was seen as reprehensible and this alone would have many parents of HS players from seriously considering Louisville. The FBI sting then cemented UofL as an out of control program that despite the firings of Pitino and Jurich, led most HS kids to look elsewhere.

The hiring of KP didn't help with this perception as the program seemingly was admitting it was going to be awhile before Louisville could return to its prominent status. No big name or up and coming coach would take the job had to mean tough times ahead for UofL basketball.

So HS players were pretty much out of the equation. The two that did sign were recruited by Chris Mack and probably had more information about the programs potential status to escape serious violations, unlike other recruits.

It was the grad transfer market where KP was really behind the 8 ball. These players for the most part, had just one season left of college hoops, and who could really blame them for not choosing Louisville? Unlike Kansas, who just won the NCAA title, Louisville was in a huge mess and even if the death penalty wasn't likely, a multiple year ban from post season was very possible.

So any transfer had to consider that plus the likelihood that Louisville, with a first time head coach wasn't going to be good enough to make the postseason even if there wasn't a ban. It was just a perfect storm that was going to pound the program, especially in year one of the new regime. Now I do agree KP probably was a bit naive and figured he could land some transfers and it was too late when he realized he wasn't going to get anybody. I don't know if it's true he passed on some transfers thinking he was going to get a better one, but it wouldn't surprise me.

BHH wasn't a grad transfer and why he stuck with KP is a question I can only guess at. Knowing he had 3 more seasons could be it or he may have had a relationship with KP prior?

The bottom line for me is the lack of transfers and recruits were due to the program being in limbo on everything. Coming off a bad losing season with a rookie head coach, trying to navigate serious NCAA violations for a program being held with disdain across the country just wasn't going to yield positive results. So most everyone said no thanks to Louisville.

And looking at the 2 and 13 record seems to validate their concerns.

This first season KP gets a pass regardless if he's the man for the job or not. No one expected a winning season but no one expected being the worst team in power conference basketball either. Year two, starting with recruiting will tell the tale if KP survives.

We're at the point now that many fans hope the team plays competitive ball down the stretch and shows improvement and potential but many fans are leary of this because it may give KP more time to prove he can do the job which is something they don't believe is possible.

For me, I want to win but I'm not yet sold KP will.
I the last two years since the IARP started ruling on infractions I don't know of anyone that thought the death penalty was even a possibility. Every case that has went before them has been a slap on the wrist..

Kansas had seven, SEVEN Level one violations hanging over their head. We had none. They won the title last year. Auburn had the FBI come to their campus and lead Chuck Person and another coach off in handcuffs .We didn't have anyone arrested. But yet both those schools didn't miss a beat. Did other schools only negative recruit us and not pick on Auburn, Kansas, LSU, and Arizona ? C'mon 🤣

How many players did Mack bring in the year before under the same conditions ? 6 or 7. And I would love to have Faulkner on this team but KP either ran him off or couldn't convince him to stay.
Just tired of all the excuse makers. The KP experiment has been an epic bust.. 2-17... could you ever in your wildest dreams think that record would ever be beside UofL 's name ? Can you ever in your wildest dreams think people would be making up excuses to keep said coach who is 2-17 ? Yeah me neither..
 
Not to mention, almost everyone tainted by the adidas scandal had more serious NCAA charges leveled against them than U of L did. Hell, you had head coaches at other schools on audio recordings, for crissakes!

Yet WE had to expect the death penalty and only WE needed to totally clean house. Who among us still believes that garbage?...
 
The main reason the death penalty or at least very serious sanctions, were used against Louisville in recruiting after the FBI sting, was because of the stripper scandal that was just a few years earlier. The sordid nature of the scandal is why the penalties were so harsh and why so many potential recruits wouldn't consider Louisville anymore.

Now this was fresh in people's minds when again the program was involved in another scandal. This was enough for UofL to axe Pitino and Jurich cementing the opinion that Louisville men's basketball was a rogue program.

This had a negative effect on recruiting even during the Mack era. There was however a lagging effect on what exactly would come of a two time offender, so there were enough recruits and transfers who were persuaded to attend UofL. It ended up being five years before any decision was made.

So when it was announced the decision on Louisville would be in 2022, coaches all over the nation ratcheted up the notion that Louisville was looking at some serious sanctions. Recruits and transfers were told everything from a one year ban to the death penalty, was instore for Louisville hoops. "Do you really want to go there? That program is in chaos."

I agree most everyone involved in all of this knew the death penalty was not going to be applied, but that doesn't stop negative recruiting, especially in this new portal era. Recruits and transfers were easily convinced that the hammer was coming down in 2022 and that is why getting commitments was almost impossible.
 
The main reason the death penalty or at least very serious sanctions, were used against Louisville in recruiting after the FBI sting, was because of the stripper scandal that was just a few years earlier. The sordid nature of the scandal is why the penalties were so harsh and why so many potential recruits wouldn't consider Louisville anymore.

Now this was fresh in people's minds when again the program was involved in another scandal. This was enough for UofL to axe Pitino and Jurich cementing the opinion that Louisville men's basketball was a rogue program.

This had a negative effect on recruiting even during the Mack era. There was however a lagging effect on what exactly would come of a two time offender, so there were enough recruits and transfers who were persuaded to attend UofL. It ended up being five years before any decision was made.

So when it was announced the decision on Louisville would be in 2022, coaches all over the nation ratcheted up the notion that Louisville was looking at some serious sanctions. Recruits and transfers were told everything from a one year ban to the death penalty, was instore for Louisville hoops. "Do you really want to go there? That program is in chaos."

I agree most everyone involved in all of this knew the death penalty was not going to be applied, but that doesn't stop negative recruiting, especially in this new portal era. Recruits and transfers were easily convinced that the hammer was coming down in 2022 and that is why getting commitments was almost impossible.
Cmon man.. Quit reading the Pat Forte propaganda.. I don't think any of that was much of a factor.. If KP was half the recruiter he was sold to be he could've got kids in here..
 
Hey, I could be wrong. It's just my educated opinion.
I don't know how educated it is, but it's definitely an opinion that time has shown was wrong. We created most of our own misery, and we continue to do so. You can't get better until you stop hurting yourself esp. when you think you're helping...
 
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Well I disagree with your educated opinion zipp, and time has shown me that you're often not as judicious as you think you are.
 
It is about as educated and objective opinion on the situation that has been posted.

Since the NCAA thing wasn’t really a thing someone explain the fall of Louisville basketball since they were #1 after the Michigan game 5 years ago? There is a tweet on Louisville’s Ken Pom rating since then it is straight down.

The truth is the NCAA taking 5 years to process a repeat offender was devastating. We can point fingers and blame a whole lot of people. It impacted recruiting and on court performance. No one can deny that.

Next year they start climbing out….hopefully.
 
It is about as educated and objective opinion on the situation that has been posted.

Since the NCAA thing wasn’t really a thing someone explain the fall of Louisville basketball since they were #1 after the Michigan game 5 years ago? There is a tweet on Louisville’s Ken Pom rating since then it is straight down.

The truth is the NCAA taking 5 years to process a repeat offender was devastating. We can point fingers and blame a whole lot of people. It impacted recruiting and on court performance. No one can deny that.

Next year they start climbing out….hopefully.

I think it’s important that you added the qualifier “hopefully”. I see nothing that this staff has done to make me think they can improve. The same problems in game 1 are being seen in game 20. And no one has been held accountable. I can’t remember a guy making an egregious turnover and getting pulled from the game. Absolutely ZERO accountability.
 
Based off their performance it is hard to be optimistic but KP didn’t get here by himself. The data pretty much tells us Louisville talent level isn’t where it needs to be. You don’t see that kind of consistent drop if you are loaded with talent. Tie in the coaching issues with Mack and KP we will be at rock bottom by the end of the year.

I think both sides of the argument have valid points. At this point there is no easy answer.
 
Based off their performance it is hard to be optimistic but KP didn’t get here by himself. The data pretty much tells us Louisville talent level isn’t where it needs to be. You don’t see that kind of consistent drop if you are loaded with talent. Tie in the coaching issues with Mack and KP we will be at rock bottom by the end of the year.

I think both sides of the argument have valid points. At this point there is no easy answer.

I think Payne is back next year. However, I do not believe for one second that BC was the more talented team on the court last night. We were worse on the controllables - coaching, effort, mind-set, conditioning.
 
The main reason the death penalty or at least very serious sanctions, were used against Louisville in recruiting after the FBI sting, was because of the stripper scandal that was just a few years earlier. The sordid nature of the scandal is why the penalties were so harsh and why so many potential recruits wouldn't consider Louisville anymore.

Now this was fresh in people's minds when again the program was involved in another scandal. This was enough for UofL to axe Pitino and Jurich cementing the opinion that Louisville men's basketball was a rogue program.

This had a negative effect on recruiting even during the Mack era. There was however a lagging effect on what exactly would come of a two time offender, so there were enough recruits and transfers who were persuaded to attend UofL. It ended up being five years before any decision was made.

So when it was announced the decision on Louisville would be in 2022, coaches all over the nation ratcheted up the notion that Louisville was looking at some serious sanctions. Recruits and transfers were told everything from a one year ban to the death penalty, was instore for Louisville hoops. "Do you really want to go there? That program is in chaos."

I agree most everyone involved in all of this knew the death penalty was not going to be applied, but that doesn't stop negative recruiting, especially in this new portal era. Recruits and transfers were easily convinced that the hammer was coming down in 2022 and that is why getting commitments was almost impossible.
Lots of good points here, probably the best summary of what I believe happened to us I've read. People can believe whatever they want to the contrary, of course.
 
Based off their performance it is hard to be optimistic but KP didn’t get here by himself. The data pretty much tells us Louisville talent level isn’t where it needs to be. You don’t see that kind of consistent drop if you are loaded with talent. Tie in the coaching issues with Mack and KP we will be at rock bottom by the end of the year.

I think both sides of the argument have valid points. At this point there is no easy answer.

Come back next year for what ?
To finish 5-26.

He had enough talent to beat Bellarmine, App st, wright st, Lipscomb , BC.

It dont matter if he brings in six, five star NBA ready players- HE CANT EFFIN COACH 🤬

He damaged goods. Bringing him back is just delaying the inevitable.
 
All we know is he can’t coach this group but neither could Mack. Every year is different if he goes 5-26 next then he won’t be around in year 3. Even I wouldn’t argue that because he would have his players.

We will see how it goes.
 
Payne apologists are simply making excuses at this point. You're wearing blinders.

It doesn't mean he won't get another year. But there's little or no chance he will ever be a successful college coach IMO esp. at this level and anytime soon.

He's just another disastrous decision in a recent history of them by U of L...
 
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The main reason the death penalty or at least very serious sanctions, were used against Louisville in recruiting after the FBI sting, was because of the stripper scandal that was just a few years earlier. The sordid nature of the scandal is why the penalties were so harsh and why so many potential recruits wouldn't consider Louisville anymore.

Now this was fresh in people's minds when again the program was involved in another scandal. This was enough for UofL to axe Pitino and Jurich cementing the opinion that Louisville men's basketball was a rogue program.

This had a negative effect on recruiting even during the Mack era. There was however a lagging effect on what exactly would come of a two time offender, so there were enough recruits and transfers who were persuaded to attend UofL. It ended up being five years before any decision was made.

So when it was announced the decision on Louisville would be in 2022, coaches all over the nation ratcheted up the notion that Louisville was looking at some serious sanctions. Recruits and transfers were told everything from a one year ban to the death penalty, was instore for Louisville hoops. "Do you really want to go there? That program is in chaos."

I agree most everyone involved in all of this knew the death penalty was not going to be applied, but that doesn't stop negative recruiting, especially in this new portal era. Recruits and transfers were easily convinced that the hammer was coming down in 2022 and that is why getting commitments was almost impossible.

Very well-written. I agree with all of it.

I don't blame CKP for lack of recruiting/portal success in the time he's been at Louisville. I'm realistic, your post here is why I feel the way I do. However I do blame him for this season which I strongly believe will end with a 2-30 record. This team has 1 5*, 6 4*, and 3 3*; you don't have to be a Hall of Fame coach to beat the Bellarmines etc and have a winning record, to be competitive. There is a very, very large range between a 2-30 coached team and a Rick Pitino-coached team.

If they were competitive this year, fun to watch, maybe recruiting for 2023-24 would be better. But they aren't competitive, they aren't fun to watch, and recruiting looks awful. Do not be surprised folks if most of this team transfers out this Spring, hardly anyone transfers in, and then CKP is holding tryouts for walk-ons this summer.
 
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If they were competitive this year, fun to watch, maybe recruiting for 2023-24 would be better. But they aren't competitive, they aren't fun to watch, and recruiting looks awful. Do not be surprised folks if most of this team transfers out this Spring, hardly anyone transfers in, and then CKP is holding tryouts for walk-ons this summer.

I think this is a legit concern. KP needs to be recruiting guys currently on the team to keep them from leaving. If I’m Mike James, I would explore my options.
 
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Come back next year for what ?
To finish 5-26.

He had enough talent to beat Bellarmine, App st, wright st, Lipscomb , BC.

It dont matter if he brings in six, five star NBA ready players- HE CANT EFFIN COACH 🤬

He damaged goods. Bringing him back is just delaying the inevitable.
This 👆
Why do people not get this. It's mind boggling to me that people want to give him another year to bring us down to ashes..

He makes $3 million per year people. He's won 2 games ! So far he's made $15 million per win ! We could have played with El Ellis coaching and won 2 games..If any of you KP apologists owned a business and you hired a new guy to run it and was producing the results KP is and business has dropped in profit by 50% are you keeping him for another year to see if he brings the company back at the risking of putting it completely under ? If your answer is yes I really hope you are not in any kind of business for your families sake.
 
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Kenny PAYNE won those two games!
Bored Cabin Fever GIF
 
It’s unexplainable and indefensible. We’re talking worst of all time.

Did any of these have a roster with a 5 star and several 4 stars? An NBA arena? Fan support from a city of 1 mill + without a pro team? A history of national championships/final 4s?

We are in this group and none of these coaches returned:

 
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