Game by game prediction

[TheRealVille]

Each season I predict the Cards schedule based on the expectations and prior results from the season before. I do this with the opponents as well. It's solely for fun but I try to take it seriously as I can. I did very well last season predicting 10 regular season wins.

So here we go.

1. Cards 52 AP 6
2. Cards 38 Jax. State 10
3. Cards 32 GT 16
4. ND 30 Cards 27
5. Cards 44 SMU 16
6. Cards 34 Virginia 14
7. Cards 38 Miami 24
8. Cards 32 BC 13
9. Cards 27 Clemson 24
10. Cards 34 Stanford 17
11. Cards 35 Pitt 17
12. Cards 38 UK 23

Louisville 11 - 1 8 - 0

ACC championship
Louisville vs Virginia Tech

If Tyler Shough is as good as advertised and he stays relatively healthy, this Louisville team can win all 12 games. There's two key ACC games and 2 key OOC games.

I know GT's win over FSU will have the Yellow Jackets ranked when they play Louisville, but I wasn't that impressed with them in that game. It was more the ineptitude of the Seminole's offense that got the W for GT. I think the Cards at home will take care of the rambling wreck.

Its basically the Miami and Clemson games in the ACC for the Cards. Other than those two and GT, the others are going to struggle to win 6 games. And it's ND and UK away from the conference. I could have just as well picked Louisville to again beat the Irish, but I just don't think the Cards will win all 12 games. They're good enough, but this program has never been lucky enough.

I just can't bring myself to pick losing to UK again but it could happen. A lot depends on what the season has done for both teams. I think Louisville is better but they were last season too.

If it's an unlucky season, the Cards could lose 3 or 4 games. A last second FG, a blown call by a ref with a minute to go, key injuries at the worst time, etc...

But if luck has nothing to do with this season, I think Louisville is good enough to make it back to the ACC Championship. I forsee at worst a 9 and 3 season but 11 and 1 is where I'm at.

Go Cards!

 

[wreckcard#22]

8-4 for me...early losses to GT ND and SMU will be a severe learning experience, pull it together with a loss to Clemson. But we finally get the Cats, and win our bowl.

 

[2330859]

QB King and GT are legitimate contender for ACC Championship. As so many conferences will see, the Portal has been successful in bringing unprecedented balance to college football.

I continue to question how anyone can accurately pick winners and losers at this early stage, but I will make this one observation, specifically the ACC Champion will likely have at least 2 losses.

We all see UL’s defense as most formidable, but replacing 2 NFL roster RBs is a huge question mark for this team.

 

[bdnewton]

I believe we can go 12-0. After all that’s what a fan is.
GT runs the ball and King really does not throw the ball very much. He is more of a runner.
Clems son is very beatable this year. Haven’t seen much about ND.

 

[TheRealVille]

8-4 for me...early losses to GT ND and SMU will be a severe learning experience, pull it together with a loss to Clemson. But we finally get the Cats, and win our bowl.

Did you watch SMU Saturday against a horrible Nevada team? How can you predict a Louisville home loss to them? If that happens, Cards will be a poor team.

Anybody can lose to Anybody we know that, but predicting a home loss to a obvious inferior team like SMU is a head scratcher. Nevada won 2 games last season and was 28 point home underdogs and almost best SMU.

 

[TheRealVille]

QB King and GT are legitimate contender for ACC Championship. As so many conferences will see, the Portal has been successful in bringing unprecedented balance to college football.

I continue to question how anyone can accurately pick winners and losers at this early stage, but I will make this one observation, specifically the ACC Champion will likely have at least 2 losses.

We all see UL’s defense as most formidable, but replacing 2 NFL roster RBs is a huge question mark for this team.

Why do you have to question predictions? It's obviously not an exact science and is mostly for entertainment value. What happens in between games definitely affects the following games, so any predictions at the start is simply a tune up for what one believes the team will be.

Last season I predicted 10 and 2 and guess what? I even picked losing to Pitt, so maybe now you can understand how people can predict before the games are played? It's just for fun plus a tool to convey how good or bad someone feels a team will be.

 

[TheRealVille]

I agree GT is much improved from a couple of years ago, but they are in no way in my opinion a ACC championship threat. They had just 333 yards of offense against FSU and didn't throw a TD pass.

FSU's offense was very bad, less than 300 yards and GT's defense is not their strength. Their ACC schedule is also brutal.

If Louisville is as talented as their roster appears to be, they should handle GT at home. Cards should be 7 to 10 point favorites over GT. But we will see. I'm confident this Louisville team could be one of the best teams in Cards history.

Jeff Brohm is building a powerhouse and yes, the portal is the main reason.

Go Cards!

 

[CardHack]

QB King and GT are legitimate contender for ACC Championship. As so many conferences will see, the Portal has been successful in bringing unprecedented balance to college football.

I continue to question how anyone can accurately pick winners and losers at this early stage, but I will make this one observation, specifically the ACC Champion will likely have at least 2 losses.

We all see UL’s defense as most formidable, but replacing 2 NFL roster RBs is a huge question mark for this team.

Georgia Tech checks every box of Duke 2023: Quality QB returnee behind a very good offensive line that they ride. So well coached as Duke was under Elko and obviously the perceived as surprising win over a preseason conference favorite. Duke was a physical team on both sides of the football. Georgia Tech appears to have bridged that physicality defensively by not unironically bringing in Duke's defensive coordinator. The quality of their open field tackling vs. last year was very noticeable against FSU, especially for a season opener.. What ultimately dogged Duke was injuries that mitigated that physicality in the trenches and it's worth watching with Ga Tech who had to reconnoiter their program away from Paul Johnson's Triple Option attack. I don't know that Tech has the depth yet to pull off a 7-1 type conference slate.

How does all of that apply to us? I am a believer that of all the phases and position groups you can overcome inexperience at your skill positions and while we aren't trotting out just freshmen among those two units the freshmen and redshirt freshmen are the depth of those units. Inexperience at QB is very tough to overcome--thus the critical nature of a healthy Shough. Thin in numbers along both lines and your secondary with inexperience is every bit as tough because weaknesses are tough to hide in those three position groups. When you stack up interview after interview of Jeff Brohm, Ron English, Steve Ellis, Mark Ivey and Hagen they don't say they'll be as good as last year or massage expectations. To a man coaches who have been around a long time tell you that the secondary and defensive line are in categories English coached at Michigan under Lloyd Carr or Hagen coached at A&M with Miles Garrett. Louisville has one of the most experienced defenses in not only the ACC, but the Nation this year. Senior Day is going to look like the Million Man March.

I want to see Clemson and Miami play before talking myself out of how good I think this squad will be. I am not the least bit sold on Clemson offensively--they just seem to lack that breathtaking corps of receivers they had so commonly. Miami? God only knows because they've been back more than The Clap with The Kardashians. To hear the folks on the ACC Network tell it we are lucky we don't have to face the juggernauts NC State and Va Tech and when I watch their preseason shows I feel like Pink bellowing out "What About Us?" We matchup well with Georgia Tech in the trenches and have to take care of the football. I swear Notre Dame as a double digit favorite in South Bend is a moneyline bet for me and there is no way that line holds up--unless something happens to Shough between now and then...their O line is a HUGE question mark and that is tough to hide against a tough to run on defensive front. Beyond that they have fairly pedestrian wide receivers by their standard but one hell of a high quality TE. I don't think they're going to move the ball against us. Their offense looks like whatever Leonard can generate and Love but Leonard isn't as good a downfield thrower as Hartman. The Irish's strength is much like ours--a deep and talented group in the defensive front with an AA candidate in Howard Cross and two fantastic AA candidates in the secondary.

 

[beantowncard]

Each season I predict the Cards schedule based on the expectations and prior results from the season before. I do this with the opponents as well. It's solely for fun but I try to take it seriously as I can. I did very well last season predicting 10 regular season wins.

So here we go.

1. Cards 52 AP 6
2. Cards 38 Jax. State 10
3. Cards 32 GT 16
4. ND 30 Cards 27
5. Cards 44 SMU 16
6. Cards 34 Virginia 14
7. Cards 38 Miami 24
8. Cards 32 BC 13
9. Cards 27 Clemson 24
10. Cards 34 Stanford 17
11. Cards 35 Pitt 17
12. Cards 38 UK 23

Louisville 11 - 1 8 - 0

ACC championship
Louisville vs Virginia Tech

If Tyler Shough is as good as advertised and he stays relatively healthy, this Louisville team can win all 12 games. There's two key ACC games and 2 key OOC games.

I know GT's win over FSU will have the Yellow Jackets ranked when they play Louisville, but I wasn't that impressed with them in that game. It was more the ineptitude of the Seminole's offense that got the W for GT. I think the Cards at home will take care of the rambling wreck.

Its basically the Miami and Clemson games in the ACC for the Cards. Other than those two and GT, the others are going to struggle to win 6 games. And it's ND and UK away from the conference. I could have just as well picked Louisville to again beat the Irish, but I just don't think the Cards will win all 12 games. They're good enough, but this program has never been lucky enough.

I just can't bring myself to pick losing to UK again but it could happen. A lot depends on what the season has done for both teams. I think Louisville is better but they were last season too.

If it's an unlucky season, the Cards could lose 3 or 4 games. A last second FG, a blown call by a ref with a minute to go, key injuries at the worst time, etc...

But if luck has nothing to do with this season, I think Louisville is good enough to make it back to the ACC Championship. I forsee at worst a 9 and 3 season but 11 and 1 is where I'm at.

Go Cards!

I can’t say I disagree with this take. A win at Clemson would be huge for this program.

 

[OldhamCard335]

1. I agree you nailed it last year. Here’s hoping you’re on your game this year.

2. I agree with most all your picks. Obviously Clemson on the road scares me…you know…Death Valley and all.

3. Brohm and Co. won’t lose to the Cayuts two years in a row. He really seemed to take that loss personally last year and he won’t let that happen again.

4. I’m sold on Ga. Tech. Their coach has them believing. Not sold on SMU. We’ll see.

 

[TheRealVille]

1. I agree you nailed it last year. Here’s hoping you’re on your game this year.

2. I agree with most all your picks. Obviously Clemson on the road scares me…you know…Death Valley and all.

3. Brohm and Co. won’t lose to the Cayuts two years in a row. He really seemed to take that loss personally last year and he won’t let that happen again.

4. I’m sold on Ga. Tech. Their coach has them believing. Not sold on SMU. We’ll see.

The Cards toughest matchups are Miami, Clemson, ND and UK. All these scare me. Cards could lose to all four of them in tight games. We've seen it before. Good luck in close games are not very popular with Louisville football historically.

At the same time, I think Louisville is better than all four, especially if Shough stays healthy.

GT and SMU are next but both games are at Louisville. If the Cards have their usual upset clunker I could see it at BC. Bad weather and BC has a talented QB could lead to an upset.

My take is the defense will again carry the team this season. If Brohm can get the offense he wants and opponents are constantly behind, this team could run the table. Now we know there will be injuries. We already have with Lacy going down. It just can't be at QB. I think we have very good depth everywhere else.

Don't see a juggernaut opponent on the schedule. That could change as the season progresses, but the juggernaut could be Louisville itself. This is why we all wanted Brohm. If he has the QB, the rest of the tools needed to take it all the way is readily available at UofL.

The time is now. To show that Louisville is the next big thing in ACC football.

 

[Cardsfan69420]

I like your prediction. My predictions are similar (9-3 or 10-2)

Austin Peay: 24+ point win.
Jacksonville State: win by 21
Georgia Tech: Louisville takes early lead and win by 10. GT deserved a bye before this game. Travel way too much
Notre Dame: 7-point loss. I could see our offense struggling this game.
SMU: 20+ point win similar to VT last year. We match up well against this team and i don’t think they will be able to run their typical offense.
Virginia: 10 point win
Miami: 10 point win with a huge crowd. I also think Miami starts to implode after early losses
Boston College: tough 7 point road win. This could be the dumb road loss this season imo.
Clemson: Heartbreaking 3 point Loss (Clemson will be bad offensively though)
Stanford: 14+ point blow out win
Pittsburgh: 14+ revenge blowout win
Kentucky: toss up rivalry game. Hopefully we get the ACC official bump like Kentucky got last year.

 

[TheRealVille]

I actually think Louisville's schedule is set up perfectly for a run at the playoff.

After a scrimmage in game 1, the Cards will see a pretty good mid-level opponent in Jax State. They had one of the best seasons last year for a FCS team's first season at the FBS level. Cards will need to be focused to avoid an ugly win.

Then GT comes to town, looking to continue their ascension in the ACC. Coach Brohm will have the Cards prepared for their first real test. Plenty of motivation.

Then there's Notre Dame. I, for one am not scared of the Irish, even in South Bend. Cards have had success against ND lately. Remember the Reggie Bonnofan win on the road? This is a game I think Louisville should win but probably won't. What I do know is a win would be a spring board to a top 10 ranking.

At 4 and 0, the Cards get a SMU team that is finding life in the ACC a bit tougher than expected. The Cards offense could get a big kick in this game. 50+ points?

With the Miami game coming up, the Cards have to travel to Virginia. For some reason, the Cavaliers have been a pesky opponent for Louisville, especially on the road. Brohm will need to earn his pay this week and not let the team look ahead to the Hurricanes.

Then it's the Miami Hurricanes. Depending on how well the U has fared so far, this is a possible GameDay game. I know, I know. A fan can dream you know. The game could go either way, but much like last years big home game against ND, where no one on GameDay picked the Cards, Louisville with a win would directly put them in the conversation for the ACC champion.

Now Jeff Brohm will have to conquor a nightmare he seems to have each season. With their 2nd huge win in four games and a top 10 ranking, Louisville will be the trendy pick for an upset loss at BC in game # 8. Everyone will recall the Pitt game a year ago and there's a good chance the weather will again be poor this time in Boston.

On top of that, the next game is at Clemson and the looking ahead distraction could add to the challenge of Brohm erasing his annual nightmare. He has a bit of a reputation that started at Purdue of having let down losses after big wins. This is where the rubber meets the road for Louisville football in 2024. Take care of the Golden Eagles and go to South Carolina at 8 and 0.

And the memories keep coming as a big road game arrives against Clemson that could determine the conference champion very much like that Lamar Jackson/DeShawn Watson thriller. It's safe to say if Louisville wins this game, Jeff Brohm is a leading candidate for coach of the year.

Then the Cards have two games against most likely sub 500 teams in Stanford and Pitt. Nursing injuries could be important with these two contests, even though flying out to California can be trickier than expected. Hopefully, the bowl game against USC last season will illicit some discipline?

Then it's the nut that we suddenly can't seem to crack. Louisville dominated the series with UK after the long layoff, but the cats have took advantage of the rock bottom Petrino point 2 provided. It's been a tough climb to get this game back to the proper winning side as last years game proved. That loss still is hard to believe. We beat them all over the field that day, but two plays was bad enough to lose. Hopefully, that curse is over.

Louisville doesn't have an easy road at all to the ACC championship and/or playoff, but they have the schedule to do it. They will have two to three big opportunities to put Louisville football somewhere for the first time. This is the first season of a 12 team playoff and Louisville is in a perfect position to take one of those spots.

And oh how good that would feel.

Go Cards!

 

[wreckcard#22]

Did you watch SMU Saturday against a horrible Nevada team? How can you predict a Louisville home loss to them? If that happens, Cards will be a poor team.

Anybody can lose to Anybody we know that, but predicting a home loss to a obvious inferior team like SMU is a head scratcher. Nevada won 2 games last season and was 28 point home underdogs and almost best SMU

 

[wreckcard#22]

I did not, was busy mountain biking...but, UNR (which is what us Reno residents call Nevada) is a much improved and will surprise some teams. More than that I'm basing my prediction on a new roster with early season adjustments...that changes now with Amari back. I think that addition will be very beneficial to us. It's just banter, but I'm holding back on my expectations due to a lack of team cohesiveness.

 

[2330859]

Why do you have to question predictions? It's obviously not an exact science and is mostly for entertainment value. What happens in between games definitely affects the following games, so any predictions at the start is simply a tune up for what one believes the team will be.

Last season I predicted 10 and 2 and guess what? I even picked losing to Pitt, so maybe now you can understand how people can predict before the games are played? It's just for fun plus a tool to convey how good or bad someone feels a team will be.

So I guess you picked GT over FSU?

 

[TheRealVille]

So I guess you picked GT over FSU?

No, I only pick Louisville's schedule. I've been doing this long before the message boards. Both hoops and football. I usually didn't predict the actual scores but doing that makes it fun to see how close I get.

I've been way off before. I predicted 8 and 4 the year Petrino imploded without Lamar holding him up.

In not a casual fan. I try to do my homework when evaluating the Cards. Sometimes I'm a bit more confident than usual, which was last season for sure. I look into the Cards opponents and see who they have returning and what their strengths and weaknesses are.

This season, like everyone, I believe GT was going to be formidable and their win over FSU was no shocker. However, I believe the Cards are much better and at home, should win going away.

I think ND is overrated like usual and Miami like usual, has the talent, if not the coaching. But we will see. A lot of people are touting Virginia Tech and I may be one of them. They like Louisville, are on the move upward.

 

[2330859]

Nice response RealVille; I totally appreciate your support of UL, and understand your participation in projecting Cards performance. Actually, I too used to perform my own preseason analysis on UL FB and BB, but since the Portal and transfer activity, I felt like my inability to predict what our opponents could do, reduced my confidence.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

APSU- W 63-6
JaxSt- W 45-10
GT- W 34-17
ND- L 17-27
SMU- W 38-20
UVA- W 27-20
Miami- W 45-41
BC- L 34-38
Clemson- L 20-38
Stanford- W 35-17
Pitt- W 27-13
Kentucky- W 24-20

Notre Dame lines up better for them than last year. They're at home and have a pretty easy few weeks before they play us. I think their defense is good and our offense with all the new guys won't be as ready, we don't have the running game like we did a year ago and won't have the hyped up crowd.

I see us mostly handling the ACC. Miami will be our BIG HOME WIN and it'll be a fun game like last year, but then I see the BC game as the typical Brohm stinker where we crap the bed. UVA and Pitt are candidates for that particular loss too, but I went with BC for the timing.

I think we'll get Clemson or Kentucky. For this list I'll say Kentucky. Kentucky plays Texas before they play us. Clemson has a bye week. I do think Clemson, Kentucky, & Notre Dame all present similar challenges for this team compared to the 2023 team. Where last year we were the physical running team and could push those type of teams, I don't think we have that this year and those 3 have some really good defenses. But playing Clemson and Notre Dame before we play at Kentucky will give us some good experience to hold them off. THese 3 teams aren't all the same talent level, but it seems offense is their struggle and no one can say how good they'll be until their QB's play. Go 2-1 in these games and I can see the playoffs.

I think teams like GT & Miami are favorable matchups. Our defense will be one of the better ones they'll see this year, plus we'll have the home crowd to boost us. Miami I could just see it being a shootout for some reason with the good guys holding on.

I think that's fair. But I could see a 10-2 assuming no bad breaks go against us. Lacy's injury really does lower the ceiling if he doesn't play. You don't lose the focal point of your passing game and just say next man up and it'll be fine, but I do think unlike last year that we have a QB that can make some big throws and won't be as reliant on guys having to have a lot of YAC.

 

[glassmanJ]

whatever your predictions you have to factor in the CJB will lose a game if not two where we are favored as his past has shown this to be regular a occurrence. i don't he's capable of an undefeated season just yet coaching wise as sometimes, he just cannot adapt to the situation thinking his players will overcome. so at best, there's one loss, if not 2, to either GT, ND and/or Clemson and 1 loss where we were easily favored. then honestly, it'll take a huge game to beat uk on their home field as i think the pressure will be too much on coach's shoulders as it was last year. so 9-3 is a pretty good year, 8-4 a reality, 7-5 means the coaching switch was a failure, 10-2 is a dream, 11-1 is a hallucination and 12-0 is inconceivable. i'm of the 9-3 prediction.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

whatever your predictions you have to factor in the CJB will lose a game if not two where we are favored as his past has shown this to be regular a occurrence. i don't he's capable of an undefeated season just yet coaching wise as sometimes, he just cannot adapt to the situation thinking his players will overcome. so at best, there's one loss, if not 2, to either GT, ND and/or Clemson and 1 loss where we were easily favored. then honestly, it'll take a huge game to beat uk on their home field as i think the pressure will be too much on coach's shoulders as it was last year. so 9-3 is a pretty good year, 8-4 a reality, 7-5 means the coaching switch was a failure, 10-2 is a dream, 11-1 is a hallucination and 12-0 is inconceivable. i'm of the 9-3 prediction.

To be fair, how many coaches currently in college football have had a perfect season? It’s not a long list.

To have an undefeated season in Power 5 it takes a little luck and more importantly a crap ton of talent where it can overcome your bad games. It’s hard to compare any coach to perfection when they haven’t had the talent of an Ohio State or LSU.

 

[nccardfan]

I don't think we can take the conclusion from the GT - FSU game is that FSU is not that good. I believe GT will present a tougher challenge than maybe earlier predictions. This is not the one dimensional GT team from a few years back.

 

[Cardsfan69420]

I don't think we can take the conclusion from the GT - FSU game is that FSU is not that good. I believe GT will present a tougher challenge than maybe earlier predictions. This is not the one dimensional GT team from a few years back.

I think we can conclude that FSU’s defensive front is not in the same league of what they were last year. They did not reload like people expected.
I do believe in GT, but I don’t think they are going to dominate the line of scrimmage like that against Clemson or Louisville.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I don't think we can take the conclusion from the GT - FSU game is that FSU is not that good. I believe GT will present a tougher challenge than maybe earlier predictions. This is not the one dimensional GT team from a few years back.

I was bullish on GT last year. I think it sets up perfect being at home and no real hard football and a lot of good rest before the game. It will be the first big home crowd and we'll be fired up, especially now that GT could be ranked and our fans will want to see the game. There also won't be much film on us as there is for them. A bye week before the game? I think that will be a good one for us as Jeff hypes us up for a big home win.

But I told you all last year, Brent Key is a rising star in the coaching ranks. Buster Faulkner is a great OC and I bet he'll be the next OC at Georgia when they come calling. Haynes King is talented and now experienced in that system.

Georgia Tech sees themselves like us, they're a program with potential in a big market and they know that now that realignment is happening that the mid tier ACC programs being Clemson and FSU need to start making moves to go up. They're in the best college football market in the country. They have the best recruiting territory in their own back yard. That program has potential. The won the ACC title in 2009. They've been to 4 ACC Title games. They went to the Orange Bowl in 2009 and 2014. They have a fan base that will show up if they win and a lot of potential donors in that city. They had a coach running a system that didn't attract big time talent for a long time, although it was a good run for him, and that really stalled momentum.

That's why this game is big. And this season is big. We have to separate ourselves from the pack with multiple big seasons and at least one playoff appearance here soon.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I don't think we can take the conclusion from the GT - FSU game is that FSU is not that good. I believe GT will present a tougher challenge than maybe earlier predictions. This is not the one dimensional GT team from a few years back.

I think we can conclude that FSU’s defensive front is not in the same league of what they were last year. They did not reload like people expected.
I do believe in GT, but I don’t think they are going to dominate the line of scrimmage like that against Clemson or Louisville.

Another fact about Brent Key? His teams he's coached on are 3-1 against Louisville, and the only loss was the close one last season when he was a head coach.

2013 UCF Assistant when they beat us with Bortles
2018 Alabama Assistant when they steamrolled us in week 1
2020 Georgia Tech assistant when they obliterated us with Satt
2023 When we got our week 1 win to start our magical run

So he has played us well overall, but he's 0-1 as a head coach and 0-1 when a Brohm is on the sidelines for the Cards! But from what I remember, all of those games he was involved with the OL that did a good job of being physical against us.

I was just looking it up, it actually has no impact on this year because I think we're pretty well set to beat them. But we will have to come out fired up, and it being our first big home game off a bye, I'm betting the house on Coach Brohm!