9-3 is my best guess too. That would be a good year. 10-2 or better would make it a great year.
Game by game prediction
- Thread starter TheRealVille
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9-3 is my best guess too. That would be a good year. 10-2 or better would make it a great year.
Excellent observation, Schmidty. Every year I turn to Phil Steele's college football magazine to get a "rational" assessment of how we might do. I typically use Phil's prediction and add a +/- 2 on the win/loss total. This year, I am using that metric to expect anywhere from 7-5 to 11-1. Any fans who expect dominance from this team and as a result turn their predictions into expectations stand a good chance of being disappointed.
As a result of this projection, I'm not going to be one of those fans calling for Petrino to be fired over a 7-5 or 8-4 type of season. Steele is predicting 11 games on that schedule to be very competitive (16 point margin of victory or less), with 5 of them resulting in single digit wins or losses. Key injuries, rookie kickers and punters, or just plan old bad luck can turn a 5 point win into a 1 point loss.
Am I reading this right, that you're predicting Louisville will win between 7 and 11 games?
I like you as a poster but I think you're trying too hard to be right here. I mean, you picked 5 of 13 possibilities - really 12. It's almost half of the possibilities. And I'd argue 90% or more of the most likely possibilities.
What you said translates to "no miracle perfect season and no dog of a season."
I'm really disappointed because I know you're an intelligent poster and I'd like to know what you REALLY think will happen. 7-5 and 11-1 are completely different worlds of predictions.
When I decided to start this thread I knew it would garner a lot of attention. Blowing out the majority of your opponents is not a easy thing. But I'm a bit surprised at how many are still not convinced this team will not be anything like the last two on offense. We finally have a true starter at QB and his potential is off the chart. Add the slew of talented receivers with a more experienced OL to go along with Coach Petrino and the new Coach Galloway, this team should score a lot this season.
Going in it was obvious FSU and Clemson are the two big games. I have no illusions that the Cards are going to win going away in those games. But after them, the remaining teams are middle of the pack, several not making a bowl game last season. UK, Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, BC, and Wake. Why is it so hard to believe this Cards team wouldn't blow these teams out? Only a underachieving Cards team would struggle to beat these teams.
Teams like Duke and Marshall are nowhere near as talented as Louisville. Both are in rebuilding mode, having to replace many key players on both sides of the ball. As we know, UofL has the most starters back of any team ranked in the AP top 25. Again, would we not underachieve if we didn't beat these two teams handily? I assume we all can agree the Charlotte game is a blowout?
That leaves Houston. I admit I made that score a big blowout for personal reasons. I see several motivations for our guys to smack down the Cougars. Houston is getting a lot of attention this season where they didn't last August. They are ranked #13 in the AP poll and it's clear this team should not be as good as last season. They lost key guys on defense and a true freshman is being touted as their best defensive player. They also lost their top RB and WR. Things usually don't go as well the next season when you have to replace several key starters, unless of course you're Alabama or Ohio State. I think the Cards will be a little more motivated than usual in this game and will play one of their best games. It's just a hunch that could be totally wrong. Houston could have everything figured out by game eleven.
Like I said before, the scores were for fun. I don't think I can predict the actual scores of any games. I could of just said I think the Cards are going to blow out 9 of the 12 teams they play and finish 11-1. There wouldn't have been much of a fuss because blow out is very subjective. One man's blow out may mean 15 points. But I was feeling frisky and no one had made a game by game prediction so I decided to do one with a lot of confidence. The scores I picked I didn't even put much stock in how big the margin really was. I just felt the Cards would score a lot and the defense is stout. I picked the NC State game as a let down game so it was not much of a blow out and I picked the Houston game as the big surprising kick butt game. I split the two games against the big boys and I even let UK not get beat as bad as some other teams better than them.
So, I now see that some just don't like this kind of confidence. Francis, I mean Jay, really doesn't like it. That's okay because I'm used to arguing college football and basketball even if it's with my fellow Cards brothers and sisters.
Oh, the Cards bowl game against:
Louisville 65 Tennessee 21. (Just kidding)
more like 35-24
Not sure what to tell you here ... Really LOOK at the numbers I gave.... Based on what Steele has predicted, we are just about as likely to beat FSU (3 point dogs) as we are to lose to BC (5 point favorites). We are just as likely to lose to Virginia (6 point favorites) as we are to beat Houston (6 point dogs). Finally, we are slightly more likely to lose to Duke or UK (13 point favorites) than we are to beat Clemson (14 point dogs).
Either you believe the numbers or not ... and I DO think we've got a realistic shot at 11-1. It's just that if I am going to think that 11-1 is quite possible, I have to also be realistic and see that 7-5 is equally likely. I cannot use Steele's analysis in order to gain some objectivity and then decide that I'm going to subjectively throw out some of his other data.... For example, I cannot say that I trust his analysis which says that we are only 3 points from beating FSU on our field, but I don't trust him when he says that Clemson is 14 points better on their field or that we are only 5 points better than BC on their field.
Do you think we have a shot at 12-0? I do. But Steele's numbers indicate that 6-6 is equally as likely as 12-0 ... Just some food for thought.
What am I predicting? 9-3.
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Push brought up a real question mark earlier: punting and kicking. You can lose a lot of games if you can't kick field goals with any consistency.
Don't even need a Punter or Kicker when you score touchdowns all damned day!
/s/ TheRealVille
/s/ TheRealVille
The last two years Clemson NEEDED all four quarters to win...And they were big favorites both years!!!
Against FSU we $#IT the bed in the second half of both games...Yes, They have more talent then we do...But we're closer in talent to them than UK is to us!!!
We GAVE Houston the game with 5/6 turnovers...They bottled up LJ...Yet we still scored 35 points, and lost by 3 points!!!
We spotted Pitt 42 points in the first half...35 in the second quarter...We ended up loosing by 11...Turnovers and missed plays were a big part of that loss!!!
Auburn beat us because of TURNOVERS...We were our own worst enemy last year...False Starts, Tutnovers, Missed or Broken Assignments...Hopefully with a years experience, 2016 will be different!!!
This season starts and ends with 40+ point wins...It's the 10 games between them that will make or break the season!!!
For whatever reason Marshall, BC, Virginia and Wake Forest seem to play us tough...Duke with Cutcilft will be a better game than most think!!!
Syracuse in the dome should be an easy win, but we just seem to play down to the level of competition!!!
N.C. State is a WTF Type Team...More often than not they give FSU #@LL...Then they lay an egg the rest of the season!!!
I see us with two toss up games...Clemson and FSU...2-0 or 0-2 is possible...Clemson may win again...But it will NOT be by 14 points!!!
We have two so called trap games...Marshall and Houston...But, I Believe we win both by 10+ points!!!
At Syracuse, BC and at Virginia...Wins, but closer then they should be...12-14 points!!!
Duke and N.C. State...Wins...7-10 points!!!
We're better then 10 teams on our schedule, so I'll say 10-2...11-1 or 12-0 is also possible...JMHO!!!
Against FSU we $#IT the bed in the second half of both games...Yes, They have more talent then we do...But we're closer in talent to them than UK is to us!!!
We GAVE Houston the game with 5/6 turnovers...They bottled up LJ...Yet we still scored 35 points, and lost by 3 points!!!
We spotted Pitt 42 points in the first half...35 in the second quarter...We ended up loosing by 11...Turnovers and missed plays were a big part of that loss!!!
Auburn beat us because of TURNOVERS...We were our own worst enemy last year...False Starts, Tutnovers, Missed or Broken Assignments...Hopefully with a years experience, 2016 will be different!!!
This season starts and ends with 40+ point wins...It's the 10 games between them that will make or break the season!!!
For whatever reason Marshall, BC, Virginia and Wake Forest seem to play us tough...Duke with Cutcilft will be a better game than most think!!!
Syracuse in the dome should be an easy win, but we just seem to play down to the level of competition!!!
N.C. State is a WTF Type Team...More often than not they give FSU #@LL...Then they lay an egg the rest of the season!!!
I see us with two toss up games...Clemson and FSU...2-0 or 0-2 is possible...Clemson may win again...But it will NOT be by 14 points!!!
We have two so called trap games...Marshall and Houston...But, I Believe we win both by 10+ points!!!
At Syracuse, BC and at Virginia...Wins, but closer then they should be...12-14 points!!!
Duke and N.C. State...Wins...7-10 points!!!
We're better then 10 teams on our schedule, so I'll say 10-2...11-1 or 12-0 is also possible...JMHO!!!
If LJ can stay healthy the Cards have a chance to go 10-2 maybe 11-1. Realistically probably looking at 9-3. Hopefully 11-1 and playing in the ACC championship.The last two years Clemson NEEDED all four quarters to win...And they were big favorites both years!!!
Against FSU we $#IT the bed in the second half of both games...Yes, They have more talent then we do...But we're closer in talent to them than UK is to us!!!
We GAVE Houston the game with 5/6 turnovers...They bottled up LJ...Yet we still scored 35 points, and lost by 3 points!!!
We spotted Pitt 42 points in the first half...35 in the second quarter...We ended up loosing by 11...Turnovers and missed plays were a big part of that loss!!!
Auburn beat us because of TURNOVERS...We were our own worst enemy last year...False Starts, Tutnovers, Missed or Broken Assignments...Hopefully with a years experience, 2016 will be different!!!
This season starts and ends with 40+ point wins...It's the 10 games between them that will make or break the season!!!
For whatever reason Marshall, BC, Virginia and Wake Forest seem to play us tough...Duke with Cutcilft will be a better game than most think!!!
Syracuse in the dome should be an easy win, but we just seem to play down to the level of competition!!!
N.C. State is a WTF Type Team...More often than not they give FSU #@LL...Then they lay an egg the rest of the season!!!
I see us with two toss up games...Clemson and FSU...2-0 or 0-2 is possible...Clemson may win again...But it will NOT be by 14 points!!!
We have two so called trap games...Marshall and Houston...But, I Believe we win both by 10+ points!!!
At Syracuse, BC and at Virginia...Wins, but closer then they should be...12-14 points!!!
Duke and N.C. State...Wins...7-10 points!!!
We're better then 10 teams on our schedule, so I'll say 10-2...11-1 or 12-0 is also possible...JMHO!!!
In my opinion, preseason estimates of wins and losses are just like preseason polls. It's all a crap shoot. Sure it's fun to "guess" but that's all it is, a guess. I don't get into all of this too much preferring to just go game by game and hope for the best.
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
GO CARDS - BEAT EVERYBODY!!! God Bless America!!!
I love the ones that make the statement "Petrino in year 3". Aren't these the same people that said last year, Petrino in year 2? Personally, I think we go 9-3 with two of the loses coming from either FSU, Clemson and Houston, with one coming from someone we are not suppose to lose two. It always seems to play out that way.
If you regard the word "expect" with any importance or significance, then you can't really predict more than 9-3. That's what impartial bystanders are saying we will finish.
To say that you "expect" an upset is really just the fanboy in you coming out. Fine to hope or wish for that outcome...
Great picks so far. I think we both underestimated the Cards offensive abilities.
They could have scored 84 against Charlotte, and left 10-14 points on the field
against Cuse.
Go Cards!!!
Too bad I've got Jay blocked.
Wonder if he thinks we can't blow everybody out now??
Wonder if he thinks we can't blow everybody out now??
I was reminded of Petrino's teams the first time here. We were dominate back then and was putting up unreal scores. We had a few good defensive players but it was the offense that looked like a video game.
Now in his 3rd year after coming back, it looked all too familiar but this time he has a stout defense as well. Although the schedule is much more difficult now, it still has 8 or 9 teams that are average or below. I just felt that the Cards would not let up on offense like those days ten years ago and that would lead to big numbers against those teams. I didn't see a 43 point win over FSU though and don't expect to see that against Clemson.
Many reasons for that. ACC championship game or playoff game. There would be no need to play Jackson much in the 2nd half against UK with such important games to follow.You actually think Bobby will call off the dogs against UK?
What's hilarious is that this sarcastic post wasn't optimistic enough. LOL!
Jay has not posted since early September.
It seems like he got banned, or maybe a short suspension...when I clicked on his profile it says it's unavailable to view.
I'm sure Jay will pay us another visit sometime after a Louisville loss under a different handle if necessary.
Maybe #Steelers can confirm.
It seems like he got banned, or maybe a short suspension...when I clicked on his profile it says it's unavailable to view.
I'm sure Jay will pay us another visit sometime after a Louisville loss under a different handle if necessary.
Maybe #Steelers can confirm.
I will say this about Marshall - they were very feisty and gave our offense problems during that first quarter. If their starting QB had been able to play, the score would have been a lot closer at halftime. Marshall was undermanned, but you can see from that game why they are so successful at the CUSA level.
Comparing optimistic predictions to UK predictions was way out of line (as other posters are pointing out now that we DO HAVE some spectacular results). The difference is we have some accomplishments and a trend line that (before Labor Day weekend 2016) would've made some of these plausible. That is not, has never been, the case with UK homer fans.
The concern going forward for me is defensive depth. The "starting" 16 or so players have been performing at a very high level, but we are going to need newcomers like Jonathan Greenard, Chris Williams, Isaac Stewart, Amonte Caban, Khane Pass and Ronald Walker to perform at a high level when they get into the game. It's a long season, and injuries will play a big factor, as they always do.
Guess I'm not a laughing stock now huh? That 2nd line of predictions by me was sarcasm. You need to get away from Steele Pushup. Why you look at him as some football God I just don't get. Yes, he puts a lot of info out there but he obviously didn't watch very many of these teams he favors.
Somebody may have called you a laughingstock, but I didn't.
Give me something better to go to, and I will gladly go there. Perhaps the college football magazine business is in your future!
Did you watch College GameDay this week? Sitting on the desk right in front of Desmond Howard was Phil Steele's magazine.
Here's what Steele had to say about us preseason: "While all of the talk is about Florida State and Clemson, Louisville is a clear cut contender in the Atlantic and one of my surprise teams." Also, "Even with the addition of Houston on the non-conference slate, 3 of my 9 sets of power ratings are calling for double-digit wins."
Those statements were bolder than anyone else except for our own fans were saying about us in the preseason - and pretty much spot on, as usual.
I don't bother with any of them. The TV media will use his magazine because he does arrange the most information on all the teams and not just a few lines of a summary. You need a magnifying glass to read the small print.
Many pundits were saying Louisville could be a surprise team but none actually believed the Cards would beat FSU or Clemson. That's fine. I have no problem with that. I just don't get Cards fans using these so called experts to argue against the Cards expectations. You didn't call me a laughingstock but you did mention it when agreeing with my 2nd line of predictions. And as I have said and thought was clear when I posted it, was sarcasm.
To be more precise, PushupMan said, "Funny, that's pretty similar to TheRealVille's prediction once he decided not to be a laughingstock.."
On second glance, I would call that calling me a laughingstock. Also, my predictions were not "Grounded " in PushupMan's opinion as well.
Face it. You thought I was off my rocker like most everyone else. You just used Phil Steele as your mouthpiece.
So I forgot to put "laughing stock" in parenthesis - sue me! You predicted 11-1. I did not think that was out of line with what was possible. The one prediction you made that I thought was way off was the 45-20 at Houston. I was sure Houston was going to be a very close game.
The offensive line has been better than expected, and Jackson's improvement in the passing game has been phenomenal. You absolutely nailed our offensive improvement in those areas. I thought he would be better, but I did not think he would be this good as a sophomore. And I was definitely of the opinion from the Auburn game on last year that he needed to be our starting QB - so I was convinced he had NFL-level potential.
You could correctly predict UofL's record.
You had them losing to Clemson. I had them losing to FSU.
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