I tried to post this Friday night, but site wouldn't let me - said I had too many characters lol! But posting it today in 2 posts because good info in here. This was Part 1.
I know many of you are not "numbers" folks, so I'll start with my observations in a descriptive narrative, then finish with a numerical analysis. Feel free to chime in with your take in any fashion you desire.
Observational Assessment of Louisville v Duke
Mid-season observation of Louisville:
Louisville is a well-balanced, well-coached college football team with good, but probably less-than elite talent and depth throughout its roster. Offensively, the Cardinals are good, mostly because of their balanced attack, and at times explosive, with two speedy playmakers within their passing and rushing units that can take it to the House if given space. Yes, we do try to spread the ball around to keep the defense honest, but the breakaway TD guys are certainly Thrash & Jaws and taking one of those away greatly hampers our big-play ability. We faced this at Pitt and may have to again if Jaws can't go.
When our offense finds a rhythm and executes, it's difficult to stop, but unfortunately, at times, we have been wildly inconsistent in our execution, especially away from the friendly confines of our home turf. Early in the season, I believe QB accuracy was a problem. But Jack settled down and has really excelled at home. Our blocking has been very serviceable, our RB play has been pretty solid, and our passing attack much more lethal than the last several years, even if TE spot has been almost non-existent.
As a team, not only has Jack's accuracy been stellar at home (completion % > 70% in all 3 home games), but we've done an excellent job feeding our studs. Thrash has a receiving TD in each of our three home games and Jaws has run for at least 2 scores in each.
Defensively, we started the season light in experience & looked horribly inconsistent over the season's first few games (bad in 2nd qtr of opener, 2nd half v IU, shaky in coverage from the LB & safety positions, yet pretty solid in spurts). We almost rarely blitzed the first few games and showed "why" when we did blitz vs IU, lacked pass rushing threats outside Gillotte, but seemed to be moderately strong up front against the run, and fairly stingy in coverage at the CB positions. We have improved considerably since the opener at LB and safety, have become very solid against the run, and have become much more efficient bringing limited pressure.
All in all, the defense has become pretty darn good, but can struggle (as most will) when the offense self-destructs turning it over or going long periods without scoring.
Against Duke on Saturday, we must try to stay balanced on offense, as we always do because it is who we are, but establishing the ability to run it effectively and move the chains can hurt Duke tremendously. We need to take care of the ball, move the sticks, and finish drives with points a high% of the time, especially early. FSU showed us that Duke can be worn down if you can keep the ball. Clemson had success moving the ball on them too, but shot themselves in the foot with TOs and not finishing drives with points.
Duke wants to control the ball, run it effectively and throw it to move the chains, milk clock, minimize possessions, and allow their defense to win games. They do this very well with a solid RB duo and a smart and experienced dual threat QB in Riley Leonard. But Duke's offensive efficiency has dropped off immensely with Leonard hurt and/or out of the lineup. He was not himself vs FSU, nursing a high ankle sprain on his back throwing leg (right) which appeared to affect both his accuracy and mobility. His backup is a redshirt freshman who is very inexperienced, especially in the passing game, who did not look good in his only start at NC ST.
Duke's defense is very experienced, solid, and plays very well together, commonly feasting on opponent offensive miscues. It is the strength of the team. They simply don't make many mistakes as far as missed assignments and have been able to stay pretty fresh in most of their games because the offense has done such a good job of possessing the ball and therefore, minimizing opponent possessions. They are one of the best defenses in the nation in limiting big plays - something Louisville has won games with.
I believe we can move the ball on Duke "if" we play clean football. And if we do, and can run it effectively, then I think we can wear them down in the second half. Stopping them from running ball well and forcing some early punts will be critical to our success. Getting a lead on them early, especially with them having a hampered QB (or a backup), and putting them behind the sticks a bit, forcing them to pass it more than they want, will be the secret sauce for the Cards to ride the home environment and make it really tough on the Blue Devils. If this happens, and I think it ultimately will, I can see us winning by double digits and easily covering much like our other home contests. On the other hand, if we can't get them off the field early on, and fall behind, this could turn out being a very challenging afternoon. Because of how much better we have played in our 3 home games, I'm leaning toward the great start, lead, and 2nd half finishing of the Dukies!
The health of Riley Leonard and Jawhar Jordan are critically important in this game, especially Leonard. And after watching Riley at FSU, I really like our spot here. And I don't think they can slow down Jaws if he is 100% - his speed is simply too much for this defense
to contain.
I know many of you are not "numbers" folks, so I'll start with my observations in a descriptive narrative, then finish with a numerical analysis. Feel free to chime in with your take in any fashion you desire.
Observational Assessment of Louisville v Duke
Mid-season observation of Louisville:
Louisville is a well-balanced, well-coached college football team with good, but probably less-than elite talent and depth throughout its roster. Offensively, the Cardinals are good, mostly because of their balanced attack, and at times explosive, with two speedy playmakers within their passing and rushing units that can take it to the House if given space. Yes, we do try to spread the ball around to keep the defense honest, but the breakaway TD guys are certainly Thrash & Jaws and taking one of those away greatly hampers our big-play ability. We faced this at Pitt and may have to again if Jaws can't go.
When our offense finds a rhythm and executes, it's difficult to stop, but unfortunately, at times, we have been wildly inconsistent in our execution, especially away from the friendly confines of our home turf. Early in the season, I believe QB accuracy was a problem. But Jack settled down and has really excelled at home. Our blocking has been very serviceable, our RB play has been pretty solid, and our passing attack much more lethal than the last several years, even if TE spot has been almost non-existent.
As a team, not only has Jack's accuracy been stellar at home (completion % > 70% in all 3 home games), but we've done an excellent job feeding our studs. Thrash has a receiving TD in each of our three home games and Jaws has run for at least 2 scores in each.
Defensively, we started the season light in experience & looked horribly inconsistent over the season's first few games (bad in 2nd qtr of opener, 2nd half v IU, shaky in coverage from the LB & safety positions, yet pretty solid in spurts). We almost rarely blitzed the first few games and showed "why" when we did blitz vs IU, lacked pass rushing threats outside Gillotte, but seemed to be moderately strong up front against the run, and fairly stingy in coverage at the CB positions. We have improved considerably since the opener at LB and safety, have become very solid against the run, and have become much more efficient bringing limited pressure.
All in all, the defense has become pretty darn good, but can struggle (as most will) when the offense self-destructs turning it over or going long periods without scoring.
Against Duke on Saturday, we must try to stay balanced on offense, as we always do because it is who we are, but establishing the ability to run it effectively and move the chains can hurt Duke tremendously. We need to take care of the ball, move the sticks, and finish drives with points a high% of the time, especially early. FSU showed us that Duke can be worn down if you can keep the ball. Clemson had success moving the ball on them too, but shot themselves in the foot with TOs and not finishing drives with points.
Duke wants to control the ball, run it effectively and throw it to move the chains, milk clock, minimize possessions, and allow their defense to win games. They do this very well with a solid RB duo and a smart and experienced dual threat QB in Riley Leonard. But Duke's offensive efficiency has dropped off immensely with Leonard hurt and/or out of the lineup. He was not himself vs FSU, nursing a high ankle sprain on his back throwing leg (right) which appeared to affect both his accuracy and mobility. His backup is a redshirt freshman who is very inexperienced, especially in the passing game, who did not look good in his only start at NC ST.
Duke's defense is very experienced, solid, and plays very well together, commonly feasting on opponent offensive miscues. It is the strength of the team. They simply don't make many mistakes as far as missed assignments and have been able to stay pretty fresh in most of their games because the offense has done such a good job of possessing the ball and therefore, minimizing opponent possessions. They are one of the best defenses in the nation in limiting big plays - something Louisville has won games with.
I believe we can move the ball on Duke "if" we play clean football. And if we do, and can run it effectively, then I think we can wear them down in the second half. Stopping them from running ball well and forcing some early punts will be critical to our success. Getting a lead on them early, especially with them having a hampered QB (or a backup), and putting them behind the sticks a bit, forcing them to pass it more than they want, will be the secret sauce for the Cards to ride the home environment and make it really tough on the Blue Devils. If this happens, and I think it ultimately will, I can see us winning by double digits and easily covering much like our other home contests. On the other hand, if we can't get them off the field early on, and fall behind, this could turn out being a very challenging afternoon. Because of how much better we have played in our 3 home games, I'm leaning toward the great start, lead, and 2nd half finishing of the Dukies!
The health of Riley Leonard and Jawhar Jordan are critically important in this game, especially Leonard. And after watching Riley at FSU, I really like our spot here. And I don't think they can slow down Jaws if he is 100% - his speed is simply too much for this defense
to contain.
